Center for a New American Security

Our cousins across the Atlantic drew our attention to the growing feud between terrorism scholars Bruce Hoffman and Mark Sageman:

You no longer need a subscription to Foreign Affairs (or an Athens password) to
read about the feud between Bruce Hoffman and Marc Sageman regarding the nature of the jihadist threat. First there was Hoffman’s takedown in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, in which he accused Sageman of “a fundamental misreading of the Al Qaeda threat.” Sageman’s rebuttal, in which he accuses Hoffman of a “gross misrepresentation”, is on the way. But thanks to the NYT Week in Review, we’re all treated to a little preview of what Sageman will have to say. Along with some trans-Atlantic commentary on the feud and a summary of why this matters beyond the realm of the ivory tower.

Charlie tends to come down with Hoffman on this one, if only because she's quite certain that leaving what's left of AQ(C) to re-group in Pakistan's tribal regions is a recipe for disaster. Sageman may be right that the organization has diminished capacity and weak leadership, but there's no reason to assume things will remain that way (especially if things in FATA continue their downward trend).

But the good folks at Kings also highlight a crucial difference in CT approaches in Europe and the US. From the NYT:

France, Spain and Italy, for example, pour resources and manpower into
investigations at home — from studying radicalization and wiretapping suspicious
individuals to infiltrating mosques and community centers. These countries also
track movements of suspicious individuals abroad and networks with both
local and foreign connections. Terrorist-related cases fall under the
authority of special investigative superjudges who have access to all classified
intelligence, and can use much of the information in trials.

As the Pentagon debates the lexicon of "irregular warfare" (not Charlie's favorite), let's also start thinking about how to link robust, long-term COIN and CT strategies. We're gonna need both.