Center for a New American Security

Dr. iRack has been warning for months that their were signs that the Maliki government was planning to turn on the sahwa/Awakening groups/Sons of Iraq. Maliki considers the SoIs thugs and terrorists who should not be accommodated. Dr. iRack heard this often and repeatedly during his recent Baghdad visit. In the past few months, there have been growing signs that Maliki and his allies are (1) stalling SoI integration into the Iraqi security forces; (2) collaborating with other Iraqi parties to limit political participation by sahwa groups; and (3) arresting SoI members or chasing them out of the country. Dr. iRack has also heard credible rumors that Maliki hopes that his provocative treatment of the SoIs will encourage them to start a fight, giving Maliki an excuse to bring the Iraqi security forces down on them. Hard. Some of Maliki's concerns about the SoIs are legitimate, but a failure to accommodate them could spell big trouble.

In this context, recent news out of Diyala is deeply troubling. According to the AP:

The Shiite-led government is cracking down on U.S.-backed Sunni Arab fighters in one of Iraq's most turbulent regions, arresting some leaders, disarming dozens of men and banning them from manning checkpoints except alongside official security forces.

The moves in Diyala province reflect mixed views on a movement that began in 2007 among Sunni tribes in western Iraq who revolted against al-Qaida in Iraq and joined the Americans in the fight against the terrorist network. . . .

The effort in Diyala northeast of Baghdad began last month as U.S. and Iraqi forces launched an operation against al-Qaida and other extremists in that region.

Mullah Shihab al-Safi, commander of Sunni fighters in Diyala, told The Associated Press that many senior leaders of his group had been detained and fighters evicted from their offices. He gave no figures.

Another senior commander said security forces evicted his men from all but seven of some 100 offices in Diyala. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared arrest.

The U.S. military confirmed the Diyala actions but gave few details. Fighters were only pushed out of buildings they did not own, a military spokesman, Capt. Matt Rodano, said.

Although there has been no general crackdown on Sunni volunteers elsewhere, some leaders outside Diyala have been arrested in western Baghdad and south of the capital — both one-time al-Qaida strongholds.

Government officials would not comment on specific claims about the push in Diyala. But aides close to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, said the government was not willing to tolerate the existence of armed groups with "blood on their hands."

"The continuation of the Awakening Councils as they are now is unacceptable," said Ali al-Adeeb, a close al-Maliki aide and a senior member of his Dawa Party.

A top Iraqi security official with access to classified information said authorities were especially suspicious of the Diyala groups because many of their estimated 14,000 fighters had been members of al-Qaida in Iraq.

But acting against the Sunni movements could alienate the once-dominant minority Sunni Arabs at a time when overtures to them appear to be making headway.

"We fought the Americans for four years and we fought al-Qaida, too," said al-Safi, a former Iraqi army commando during Saddam Hussein's regime who fought in the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war. "We are an experienced armed group. We are fully capable of bringing the house down."

Since the rise of the allied Sunni movement, America has spent some $200 million on salaries, equipment and training for the fighters, which now number nearly 100,000. The U.S. goal is for many of them to be integrated into the Iraqi army or police, providing the fighters with long-term incomes. . . .

But the Iraqi government has stonewalled U.S. efforts to get most of the Sunni fighters into the Shiite-dominated security forces.

It has repeatedly changed requirements for enrollment in the police and army, canceling and changing application forms without warning or insisting that training camps were full. . . .

One Shiite official who is close to al-Maliki said the prime minister believes his successful crackdown this year on Shiite militias has given him enough authority to go after Sunni armed groups without alienating Sunni politicians.

This is a story that all Iraq watchers should keep a VERY close eye on. Maliki may be making his move.

Update: "Badger" takes aim at Dr. iRack's analysis by attacking his name. Seriously? OK people, for the last time, the name is a joke. Anyway, a more detailed response is in Badger's comments stream.