Center for a New American Security

At the end of his recent guest post, Sam Parker asked "readers on the ground" to provide some extra details on the Diyala situation. A "well placed source" responds:

"In my initial reading of your post, I focused on the points that I found weak or incorrect. In re-reading, I find it overall remarkably good given your dependence on media for your info. Here are just a few points:

Notwithstanding that Ghanem had been extremely sectarian in his behavior and hated by Sunnis here, the immediate reason for his dismissal by the PC was his high-handed McArthuresque disregard of the PC’s and overall civilian authority. The trigger was his withdrawal of Diyala official (including the Governor’s as well as PC members’) police personal security details. Needless to say they were upset. There was a long history of him going out of his way to disrespect Governor Ra’d as well as the entire PC.

As for the attack the other night, it was apparently by the PM’s notorious “Quwa Khasa” [ed. "special force" in Arabic]. Linkage to the Ghanem dismissal seems likely but has not been confirmed or explained by anyone. Kind of strange after it was ratified by the Minister of Interior in a surprising (at least to me) acknowledgement of the supremacy of civil authority. Everyone is now asking why, if they wanted to arrest Hussein, they didn’t just direct the local police to do it. Neither the PM nor anyone else has yet explained. The Quwa roughed up everyone at the PC, Sunni, Shi’a, Kurd alike. Strange twist if the attack was sectarian-minded that (a) the Quwa roughed up the PM’s personal representative in Diyala who was sleeping in the GC, and (b) the one fatality, at the Government Center, was also a Shi’a.

You are incorrect that the Kurds do not participate actively in the DPC. On the contrary, they are extremely active. They are in fact the balance of power in the DPC and enjoy all the benefits that go with it. The Chair of the PC, Ibrahim Bajalan, is extremely active. Aimad Jaleel, a Kurdish member of the PC, is also Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs and very influential.Overall, the consensus here is that what is going on in Diyala now is indeed (as you indicate) preparation for the provincial elections. It is likely that, in a turnaround from the last time when the Sunni boycotted the election, they will win since they are the largest population segment. Not surprising that the Shi’i seem to be taking advantage of their current control of the levers of power to try to tilt the field in their favor in various ways. Tragic that violence and dirty tricks are still considered legitimate instruments in the game of politics in this still incredibly tribal-minded place. Ironic that people seem to care so much about the elections at a time when many in power in Baghdad seem to be trying to undermine federalism and re-centralize power (at least economic) in their own hands. At this point, Baghdad controls far more of the money that gets spent in Diyala than Diyala does. The PC in general is a feeble body that has little power and does very little. And the man in the street cares very little about the PC."