Center for a New American Security

Reports suggest that U.S. and Iraqi negotiators have agreed on a text for a SOFA (now called a "Memorandum of Understanding," or MOU), which will be attached to a broader Strategic Framework Agreement. The agreement still has to get approved by Maliki and then the Iraqi parliament, so it's a long way from being finalized--and maybe it won't happen at all. But when reading the leaked details of the agreement, Dr. iRack took note of a key date: June 2009

Apparently, the SOFA/MOU will call for U.S. combat forces to be out of Iraqi cities by the end of June 2009. Dr. iRack does not think this means that U.S. forces will actually be completely out of Iraqi cities by that date. Rather, he suspects it means that U.S. combat outposts and joint security stations will be handed over to Iraqi security forces by that date, at which point U.S. forces will go back to "commuting to work" from outlying FOBs. U.S. forces are likely to continue to partner, mentor, and advise the ISF, but their visibility on the streets--and their ability to monitor the ISF and influence events--will be greatly reduced. The SOFA/MOU also seems likely to call for the removal of remaining U.S. combat forces by the end of 2011, although this is an "aspirational" timeline. The exact details regarding the kinds of forces that might remain after 2011 remain fuzzy, but it appears that the agreement envisions the possibility of some U.S. troops in a support role past that date.

But let's stick with the June 2009 date for a moment. This date is important. You see, Dr. iRack has also heard from his contacts that this is the key date for transitioning the remaining Sons of Iraq contracts to the Iraqi government. There are currently 102,000 SoIs. The U.S. goal is to integrate about 16,000 into the ISF by the end of 2008, and provide another 26,000 civilian jobs -- a total of 40 percent of the SoIs would then be off the American rolls. The goal is then to transition the remaining 60 percent of the contracts to the Iraqi government to manage. Dr. iRack was under the impression that this was to occur on January 1, 2009 -- but he's now heard that it will happen in June 2009. Yes, that's right, the same June.

If true, this cannot be a coincidence. Instead, it likely represents a demand from the Iraqi government made during the SOFA negotiations. It makes sense that if the ISF will officially be "in the lead" in Iraqi cities in the summer of 2009, the Iraqi government would also want full control of the SoI program at that time. This means the Maliki government will be free to employ them if they so desire or, more likely, fire them, detain them, or use all that biometric and biographical information we've collected to do whatever else they see fit with them. Given the fact that Maliki and his allies hate these guys and, according to a recent interview with General Petraeus, the Iraqi government is purposefully slowing down the integration process, it is unlikely that Maliki and his buddies will be generous once they are in complete control of the program. And if recent behavior in Diyala and the newly reported crack down on SoIs in Abu Ghraib are any indication, things could get ugly.

So, if you're looking for a D-Day in Iraq, it just might just be June 2009, when U.S. forces are pulling back, no longer supervising the SoIs on a daily basis, and handing the whole shebang over the Iraqi government. Fireworks normally happen on July 4th in the United States. They may happen a bit earlier in Iraq.