Center for a New American Security

A lot of fuss has been made, and conspiracies theorized, about ISCI member and Iraqi VP Adil Abd al-Mahdi’s so-called warnings of a coup (and subsequent trip to Tehran). In the full transcript of the Arabiya interview, you can see that the host herself specifically raises the question of whether “Iraq should fear a military coup,” and he says yes, because Iraqi society is militarized and because Iraq has a long history of military coups, about which he goes into some detail. This is a far cry from going around intentionally spreading rumors about or threatening a coup. It’s a general answer to a generally worded question, whose terms he accepts. This media speculation is about 1% substance and 99% hype.

That said, in an address to the Iraqi NSC yesterday, ISCI heir-apparent Ammar al-Hakim used very similar wording warning against the militarization of society and stressing the importance of civilians holding national security positions. Now, considering that he made this statement to civilians in the Iraqi security apparatus, we probably shouldn’t draw too much from this either. But it’s a data point, and an increase in emphasis on this theme in ISCI rhetoric could indicate a growing displeasure with Maliki’s military assertiveness and an effort to send a message. But let’s hold our horses on this one for now.