Abu Muqawama: Post
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CNAS Annual Conference: Live Feed
Abu Muqawama will be offline all tomorrow as we take part in the annual CNAS conference, kicked off by General David Petraeus and expected to attract a ridiculous 1500 guests. YOU can watch the conference LIVE at the comfort of your desk.
http://www.cnas.org/live
Nate Fick and I take the stage with our paper on Afghanistan and Pakistan around 1100.
On a somewhat related note, I apologize to all whose emails have gone unanswered over the past few days. I count over 700 unanswered emails on my Blackberry alone. I promise my schedule will slow down a bit after this week.
That gonna be available for
That gonna be available for download later if you can't stream it live ?
Can you post the slides?
Can you post the slides?
Gen Petraeus was remarkably
Gen Petraeus was remarkably positive, especially given his propensity to (rightfully) downplay expectations. Also an interesting question from Fox News on giving "miranda rights" to detainees. The General seemed to indicate the dual intel/criminal justice track is only triggered for specific people, otherwise the rest are treated within the normal battlefield detainee track emphasizing intel and detention without resort to the sometimes incompatible requirments for building a Federal criminal prosecution. It'd be interesting to know what their criteria is to figure out who gets what treatment, and what he will do with those who won't be prosecuted, but need to be kept off the battlefield for a long, long time.
apologies for off-topic, but
apologies for off-topic, but is there a way to subscribe to this blog by email (like blogpost)? I didn't see a link, sorry if I missed it...
I second Boon, please post
I second Boon, please post the slides.
You weren't kidding about
You weren't kidding about the 1500 people. By the time I arrived (0830) I was told that I had to watch the event on TV next door...
Te burning question: Did
Te burning question: Did Bono attend?
How can one take CNAS
How can one take CNAS seriously with lego toys on the header and your blog is called "Father of the Islamic Resistance"?
Slightly off topic? (hope
Slightly off topic? (hope nobody linked to it yet ...)
"U.S. Commander in Afghanistan Is Given More Leeway"
WASHINGTON — The new American commander in Afghanistan has been given carte blanche to handpick a dream team of subordinates, including many Special Operations veterans, as he moves to carry out an ambitious new strategy that envisions stepped-up attacks on Taliban fighters and narcotics networks.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/11/world/asia/11command.html?ref=world
Not to send sexist in any
Not to send sexist in any way, but Sharon Burke has to be the hottest employee at CNAS.
Then comes Fick, I guess.
Nate Fick is one sexy animal!
Nate Fick is one sexy animal!
Great conference. And,
Great conference. And, congrats to Nate!
Congrats to Nate?
Congrats to Nate?
Aw, now y'all just trying to
Aw, now y'all just trying to make Andrew jealous...
It'd be delightful if the
It'd be delightful if the whole thing was streamed for replay. I only caught the afternoon sessions, unfortunately.
Andrew: Dr. Andrew J.
Andrew: Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich's comment remains a powerful demand for justification before continuing current and future activities at war in central Asia. He has become more and more a Diogenes who continues to ask, rightfully, questions that demands an honest response. CNAS appears to be looking for solutions in continuing tactical and strategic conceptual integrity for ongoing wars. Mr. Bacevich is asking for the integrity of the action's justification. He finds none - a very courageous conclusion from a man who has given his posterity to maintain the ongoing war. I am afraid that his demand could not be answered by CNAS without finding itself challenged for its reason to exist. It is a very difficult paradox. CNAS is courageous in permitting the challenge to be placed. My experience and ethics place me in agreement with Dr. Bacevich.
Andrew: Dr. Andrew J.
Andrew: Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich's comment remains a powerful demand for justification before continuing current and future activities at war in central Asia. He has become more and more a Diogenes who continues to ask, rightfully, questions that demands an honest response. CNAS appears to be looking for solutions in continuing tactical and strategic conceptual integrity for ongoing wars. Mr. Bacevich is asking for the integrity of the action's justification. He finds none - a very courageous conclusion from a man who has given his posterity to maintain the ongoing war. I am afraid that his demand could not be answered by CNAS without finding itself challenged for its reason to exist. It is a very difficult paradox. CNAS is courageous in permitting the challenge to be placed. My experience and ethics place me in agreement with Dr. Bacevich.
So, did Bacevich and
So, did Bacevich and Kilcullen come into contact? Did Exum rush between them, a bearded man in a kilt, breaking them apart after taking a blow to the solar plexus from Bacevich and a head-butt to the balls by Kilcullen?
Who applauded Bacevich the loudest? Kelley Vlahos or the poor schlub milling int the back on the room in his ACUs, orders to 12 months of OIF velcro'd within?
Did Jason Fritz have to tug Vlahos and her razor-red nails of death off of Chris Mewett after his buddy yelled, "Oh, yeah? What's the alternative, Kelley? Give me the alternative, baby, or just STFU!"
Or had Fritz and Mewett unwisely decided to bring the Exum-is-on-TV-drinking-game to a live venue, tossing back shots of Maker's Mark everytime Andrew said "kinetic" or "LOOs," "POOs" and "TICs?"
When Bacevich talked about invading Mexico to do COIN there, did Nagl utter too loudly, "Ahhhh, I've always wanted to change THAT society, too. Siestas. Hrummph. Who do they think they are? And what's with sombreros?"
How many long, improbably unpronounceable names of Pakistani political and military leaders did GEN Petraeus drop during an answer about how the war across the border was going to go?
So many questions to be answered.
And the lady CNAS should've
And the lady CNAS should've invited to a panel.
This must be THE most down-loaded video in Iraq.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmYP8Wyj2qM&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Ftalismangat...
And this
And this one:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNmL5iG2ga8&NR=1
Gotta love it. Democracy!
o/t
o/t http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1244371077685&pagename=JPost%...
hizballah cell arrested in azerbaijan; iranian passports.
love those non-global actors doing regional stuff regionally...
snli: lol. Did Sarah palin
snli: lol.
Did Sarah palin attend?
No, but the brother of the
No, but the brother of the Iraqi trade commissioner and his buddy, the media director of the agency, were there, getting lap dances and, inexplicably, recording it.
It led to the downfall of the aforementioned trade commissioner (Abdul Falah al-Sudany). SMG had said how much he liked Nibras' "Talisman Gate" site, and I went over because I hadn't visited it probably a year or more.
Nibras had the juicier details. I knew about the scandal, but I never bothered to actually watch it. Wow!
There's a Da'wa-led crackdown on alcohol sales going on. There's also a great deal of scrutiny about the corrupt Ministry of Trade.
If you thought the US-led "Global War on Terror" was poorly conceived and destined for failure (like any other war against nouns), you'll love reading over the next decade or so about al-Maliki's declaration of war against corruption (designed to rival the war against terrorists, he says).
Iraq is one of the most corrupt places on this globe, and has been for decades. His administration has been perhaps the most corrupt.
I am too afraid to click on
I am too afraid to click on any of those links.
*I actually want a war on corruption, and after that, a war on bureaucrats, and after that, a war on bureaus. And, maybe chairs, too, which is my preferred term for chairperson or chairwomen or whatever. Doesn't chair perfectly capture the absurd of the academy and academics? And, why do so few MFA-Iowa Writer Workshop-writery-types write sharp campus satire? Americans are pwned by the British in this genre, IMHO.
**Know why corruption exists so easily here in chitown? Culture, yes, but also, the genius idea of so many gov. officials and redundant gov. organizations that no one knows exactly where the money goes. I'm perfectly serious. You can't trace it even if you wanted to. I mean, you absolutely could not do it. It's a feature, not a bug, for the politicians. Gimme a break, it's the internet, Bono says tangents are welcome.
***It says on the CNAS link that, "Dress is business attire or working uniform" I've never seen dress codes posted for a medical conference, is this standard for DC?
Exum, look where you've
Exum, look where you've stuck your stubby little fingers now: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8096374.stm
Remember that redneck that accused you of disregarding the troops with your "civilian casualties" metric? I wonder what he has to say now. I wish I could see his fat, ruddy face when he reads what the General in charge of Afghanistan has just said.
These are interesting times.
@ SNLII, "THE most
@ SNLII, "THE most down-loaded video in Iraq"
Let's call this a "sharmootattoo".
I can haz CNAS video?
I can haz CNAS video?
Ok, first and foremost, Ex
Ok, first and foremost, Ex is famous: look over Nagl's shoulder in the picture at the top of this article.
Two: Kelley Vlahos is sort of hot. I was two seats away from her. She memorialized this momentous event here. I liked her more in person, and her razor-red nails of death seemed fine to me.
Third, Kilcullen wasn't there. I would've enjoyed the drama of those two on the dais together. (Kilcullen and Bacevich, not Kilcullen and Vlahos.)
And finally, the whiskey drinking did in fact take place, along with cigars and tales of armored assault, but it was at Cheff Geoff's and a bar around the corner, not at CNAS. Exum even followed us to the restaurant, but there was no TIC. Remarkably, I think he enjoys talking to our lovely French (female) colleagues more than me and Fritz.
Oh yeah, and most shocking moment of the evening: I met COL Cavoli and he knew my name from here. I need to start screening my comments for stupidity now that I know people are actually paying attention.
Is it impossible to obtain a
Is it impossible to obtain a video from Hassan Nasrallahs houshold where men are men and goats are scared?
Unfortunately I missed AM's
Unfortunately I missed AM's session on Triage (until the video is up) but the subtitle to this article on Rummy might be "Metrics gone bad". Or maybe substitute "mad" for "bad".
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/05/AR200906...
While war and sports analogies are way, way overused, I'm starting to think the emphasis on metrics to measure military progress reminds of the fight between the new sabermetrics crowd in baseball and the old line scouts who spent decades using their eyes, ears, stopwatches, radar guns and intuition. The question, of course, is how do you best measure an unquantifiable thing like sucess? In sports success is quantifiable in its wins and losses by a certain time and place, with the opportunity to try again next year, in war, no second chances of course and sucess can change with the political currents and the march of history. But the parallels, arguments and prejudices are strikingly similiar. Maybe AM can get a guest interview with Theo Epstein? And now that Moneyball is being turned into a movie, are you guys next in line? :-)
Ref. Vlahos, I've got to
Ref. Vlahos, I've got to congratulate her on writing for both Fox/AC and antiwar. That takes balls! But what disappoints me about her turn towards the American far-left and its supposedly lofty ideals, is that it's still a fundamentally narcissist movement in the mould of the neo-conservatives et al. It's all about "us". The leftists will say get out of Afghanistan because we're not being moral enough and, if we do get out, five years down the line they'll be chastising us for screwing up Afghanistan. For them it's not about the Afghan people. It's about self-image. At least Bacevich is willing to admit that it's about "us" and self-interest. But that's a sorry state of existence for both sides.
We screwed the pooch in Iraq and Afghanistan. We got her pregnant, and now we've got to be responsible parents. So, as relatively decent people with a moral compass, we have try and help fix the mess we crated (although there are always two equally responsible parents in a relationship). I suppose that would be my counter-argument to Bacevich as well as Vlahos, although I'm sure I'm extremely naive.
That said, none of the extra commitment made over the last six months will make an ounce of a difference until we figure out how to break the cycle of corruption in the Afghan government. The health of the Afghan government is the centre of gravity of this conflict, not us, the Taliban, clear-hold-build, etc. I think Nate and AM are side-stepping this most important issue in their Triage report and falling back on abstract concepts such as "legitimacy", rather than suggesting concrete steps towards fixing the Afghan government, because they don't know how to fix it. And that doesn't reflect badly on them. We don't know how to fix it. Most of us are military or strategic studies people. We're used to working with hammers and nails. If someone gives us a screw to drive into the wall, we're more likely just to keep using the hammer rather than a screwdriver.
The COINdinistas can find a million new words to describe insurgencies (hybrid-dimorphic-diffused kineticism?), and write a million more papers on "the road ahead", but until the David Petraeuses of Sociology and other non-military fields figure out how to begin the road towards Afghan liberal democracy, we're treading water at a high cost of lives and money. C'mon sociologists, you've had sixty years to study post-colonial Africa - now stop protesting against Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan, get back in your offices, do some research, write some papers and help us solve this mess for the sake of the people you allegedly care about - the Afghan people!
TB: Thats supposed to be the
TB: Thats supposed to be the expertise of the UN, innit?
Having said that, it seems about high time someone at a Think thank sat down and did a civilian FM 3-24, a manual in statebuilding, to compliment the military efforts. Has anyone held a serious conference with PRT folks from Afghanistan and Iraq, setting out similarities and differences? Has there been any efforts at setting up local metrics for such efforts? Again , where is State and the NGOs?
Its going to be funny to see the conservative movement morph into the cut and run scene the next years... (I wonder how long it will take for the conservatives to try to tie it around Obamas neck as "his war", and his folly. )
Fnord, on what kind of
Fnord, on what kind of discussions the think tank world is having on metrics, the International Peace Institute and NUPI just co-hosted this (doesn't look like there was much Afghanistan).
http://www.ipinst.org/news/2009/06/02/ipi-co-hosts-monitoring-and-evalua....
Fnord, on what kind of
Fnord, on what kind of discussions the think tank world is having on metrics, the International Peace Institute and NUPI just co-hosted this (doesn't look like there was much Afghanistan).
http://www.ipinst.org/news/2009/06/02/ipi-co-hosts-monitoring-and-evalua....
Boondoggle on sugar high
Boondoggle on sugar high (why is it diet then?),
"Gen Petraeus was remarkably positive, especially given his propensity to (rightfully) downplay expectations. Also an interesting question from Fox News on giving "miranda rights" to detainees. The General seemed to indicate the dual intel/criminal justice track is only triggered for specific people.."
He can be positive, it's the FBI doing it. The institution he serves (well) will not be implicated. He made similiar remarks concerning enhanced interrogations.
be interesting to know what their criteria is to figure out who gets what treatment, and what he will do with those who won't be prosecuted, but need to be kept off the battlefield for a long, long time..
In Bermuda and Palau. Except Bermuda says they can have full citizenship rights to include passports after a short while being monitored. And no doubt catching up on their tans.
And those are just the security concerns. Far more troubling to the future of Liberty is that we the citizen have just been placed on the same legal level as America's enemies, particularily vicious enemies.
Oh and as far as criteria? I would bet it was horse trading by nervous, CYA bureaucrats up in a office, asking themselves WTF are we doing, with "following orders" as the answer.
We saw this movie in the 90's, BTW. We should know how it ends.
And right after, you'll see another rachet up of the National Security state, and even more bad laws applied to all .
Thats supposed to be the
Thats supposed to be the expertise of the UN, innit?
Hahahahahahahahahaha! Fnord, your unswerving and unfounded faith in the UN's expertise and ability on nation-building is sweet, but deeply naive. There are many smart individuals who work for the UN's various bodies, but institutionally it's painfully incoherent. If you think NATO has a hard time setting clear strategic objectives, imagine trying to do it with 192 countries instead. When the UN does a good job, it's usually because of exceptional individuals.
it seems about high time someone at a Think thank sat down and did a civilian FM 3-24, a manual in statebuilding, to compliment the military efforts.
Well, there's the US Government COIN Guide: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/119629.pdf
And USAID's Conflict Assessment Framework (CAF): http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/cross-cutting_programs/conflict/publicatio...
...and Tactical CAF (just a summary - not sure it's open source): www.carlisle.army.mil/ietcop/2007_workshop/TCAF%20Counterinsurgency. ppt
And I believe the Brits and Canadian at least have developed their own equivalents.
The Canadians in particular have gone a long way towards better integration, with co-location of military and civilian officials throughout much of the Kandahar Task Force structure. Or so I hear.
MK: "There are many smart
MK: "There are many smart individuals who work for the UN's various bodies, but institutionally it's painfully incoherent."
Oh, I know, I know. But still, there is a hole that the UN was supposed to have filled. Is there any effort in rebuilding this capacity? Do the COIN thinkers see UN as an obstacle and problem, rather than as a possible long-term opportunity? Isnt this part of the State dep. agenda? Is there any State department agenda at all?How do the COINdinistas see UN presence in Af/Pak? Heard very little about it except as negativism...
Looking to the UN to fix
Looking to the UN to fix something so broke is like looking to Skid Row to fix California.
Fnord - look also at Beth
Fnord - look also at Beth Cole's work at USIP. Lots of people are working on civilian doctrine. The problem, however, is that civilians aren't so keen to follow doctrine. If they were, they likely would have joined the military instead of the diplomatic corps.
Elf, the group I'm really
Elf, the group I'm really interested in are those who the courts haven't availed themselves too, or aren't getting even a commission and are too dangerous to park without us having the keys. Maybe they can reopen Spandau.
And did someone say Skid row. Maybe CNAS can kick off next year's event to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6WhV5gWjJE
Somehow (in)appropriate.
Jason: Agreed on the
Jason: Agreed on the doctrine issue, its natural. Doesnt that mean that doctrine must adapt and incorporate this element, though? From what i hear from Afghanistan, a lot of resources are underemployed because of military/civilian communication issues.
Oh, I certainly beleive
Oh, I certainly beleive doctrine should exist for civilians and much progress is being made. I am not terribly sure how to doctrinalize overcoming inherent civilian distaste for doctrine. (I'm a little dizzy for talking in that circle).
I'm sure lots of resources are underemployed in Afghanistan, just as they were in Iraq. I think the new DoS/DoD "command team" should provide some assistance on that end. Just keep in mind that missions of this magnitude are going to be enormously inefficient no matter the level and quality of communications. People are "employed" over there doing things that would blow your mind away at the pure uselessness. See Tom Ricks' post on reflective belts and tickets that he got from another blog.
@Jason Fritz and Fnord on
@Jason Fritz and Fnord on civilian distaste for doctrine...
I actually think that civilians would like to have doctrine, they just don't know what it is (it sounds kind of scary) and when they've tried reading military doctrine, it's been so dry and technical, they've fallen asleep reading it (no--I haven't fallen asleep reading it though I've often felt a need for additional caffeine). I think this is why calling such publications guidelines, toolkits, or handbooks helps. I know we shouldn't have to babysit people like that but if it works...
The OECD DAC handbook on Security System Reform, for example, is introductory, accessible and easy to use (here: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/43/25/38406485.pdf). The defense sector reform section is honestly largely useless beyond flagging, for a civilian, the need to examine armed forces and defense ministries, but really doesn't go beyond the basics of conducting an assessment in these areas and then deciding to plan corresponding programs.
Concerning the hole the UN "was supposed to have filled," I don't disagree but after the Capstone Doctrine exercise, getting funding for these types of efforts has been tricky and the exercises themselves occur in such a political climate, that it's a bit crazy. Funding for these types of projects is not part of the regular budget because,as MK pointed out, the GA would have to agree, the ACABQ and C34 would have to agree, etc...so ongoing efforts are mandated by Security Council Presidential Statements (S/PRST/2008/14 of May 2008 for example) and funded by key member states. Don't ask when and whether said efforts will amount to anything though...As with other organizations, there's a lot of fear that if you write doctrine or guidelines (if that's the word you're using) down, get them approved by the SG and GA, and formally endorse them, that means UN peace operations (whether on the military or civilian side) will be held accountable to those documents and we wouldn't want that to happen, would we?
@ Lil, Fritz, Fnord Not much
@ Lil, Fritz, Fnord
Not much to add after all your posts. One more addition
http://www.interaction.org/library/detail.php?id=5896
Oh and there have been some people from State, USAID and the NGO community that have followed doctrine and its development. However it would be a stretch to say that most have read it. People seem to cling to the phrase "clear, hold, build" a little too much. I personally want to ban it. I mean is it that hard to at least read David Galula?
No, it's not that hard.
No, it's not that hard. Hell the book is only like 90 pages long. Or read The Defense of Jisr al Doreaa which is 10 pages shorter.
Look, both of those books are not the be-all end-all of conducting COIN. What they provide is an idea of the mindset required for conducting those operations. Maybe I've been talking too much with SNLII, but Galula is okay as a small part of the literature.
And to Lil. CALL started printing "Handbooks" for the PRTs. They used them to light their cigarettes, even though they were pretty good documents. Seriously though, point made about how to make the doctrine palatable to the civilian mind.
I totally agree (although I
I totally agree (although I still have yet to pick up The Defense of Jisr al Doreaa). I just meant it was a nice and basic place to start thinking about the subject. I'm just worried about the people who refuse to even engage with any of the material. If you can't get them to read something as short as 80 pages what then? Perhaps a monthly series of one page executive summaries? Coloring books? Or even videos called "8 minute COIN"?
However I will say that the improvement in language between FM 3-24 and FM 3-07 was really helpful for a lot of people. We'll see how the next one turns out.
Fumbles, You have fumbled
Fumbles,
You have fumbled into genius. The answer is to have COIN's own cartoon babe ala PS magazine's buxom Connie.
We'll hip hop her up for the modern age, let's say Coiniee da COINSTA in dah house.... This will also have the positive effect of reversing the decades long trend of Connie the Preventive Maintenance babe's slow degeneration from kickin it curves towards a Bowie like androgyny. A COINSTA Rap grrrlll spokesgrrrlll would have to have curves to tear the kids eyes away from their X-boxes like a young goat on a Thursday night in Wazoooistan. And it will sell to current and future generations of our warriors like coke laced Dippin dots.
It will also bring the pretentious urban intellectual latte sipping aspects of this down, their regime of snobbery crashing down. Ha ha Ha Ha!!
When I showed up at my
When I showed up at my Federal agency 3 years ago, nearly 2/3rd's of the directives, manuals and instructions had not been updated in over a decade. The one that technically governs my work just obtained that age of majority, having turned 21 this year without ever being updated (obviously its completely useless).
The hardest part is getting uninitiated to first understand why doctrine is important and how it will help their performance and then why they need to invest in the time and effort to create and learn it. It's two huge hurdles, in part I think, because the long tenure many people have in their jobs create "people driven" rather than "process driven" systems. If Bob has been in his job for 10 years, you just find Bob for the answer. Doesn't work though in a big event, or if you can't find Bob, or worse, Bob has left. You can talk about it as much as you want, but until the light goes on, or the ball gets dropped it is hard to overcome years of inertia and decades of corporate culture. Plus factor in the culture clash of military/military trained versus those who want to treat every situation with individual attention (great if you can do it, but just doesn't work after a system gets overloaded) and its definite loggerheads.
If there is a "distate" its twofold. First there is the culture clash and second its the inertia of not wanting to change and to devote energy to creating and learning it.
SNLII I posted a message
SNLII
I posted a message about mimetic theory on KOW
Best
Stéphane
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