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Ooph.
That's the sound of the sinking feeling I get when I realize that all the average university-educated American will know about the Lebanese elections he or she will learn from today's Tom Friedman column. But hey, Tom Friedman was once a universally respected reporter for the Times in Beirut before he went on to become, well, what he is now. And although he cartoonishly tries to make this election about a choice between Obama and Ahmadinejad -- which it certainly wasn't for the Sunni Islamists in the north -- he gets one thing right:
While the Lebanese deserve 95 percent of the credit for this election, 5 percent goes to two U.S. presidents. As more than one Lebanese whispered to me: Without George Bush standing up to the Syrians in 2005 — and forcing them to get out of Lebanon after the Hariri killing — this free election would not have happened. Mr. Bush helped create the space. Power matters. Mr. Obama helped stir the hope. Words also matter.
That bit at the beginning is probably correct, so I hope people remember it. I have only been hammering away at this for the past three days -- what the Lebanese did and did not do matters a lot more than what any U.S. policy-maker did or did not do. We need to remember that before we start drawing sweeping lessons from the Lebanese elections about what this means for U.S. policy in the Middle East.
The narrative I see forming
The narrative I see forming around me is that President Obama's speech was the proverbially straw with the election being the proverbial camel. I think it is a bit solipsistic for us as Americans to assume that our external influence counts so much in internal Lebanese politics, but the narrative today becomes history tomorrow (in America, anyway).
Didn't bother reading the
Didn't bother reading the column, but tell me if I'm way off:
These next six months will be crucial in evaluating whether Lebanon has what it takes to confront its Islamist demons.
or maybe:
The visit by Joe Biden no doubt reminded Lebanese that the world is getting ever flatter.
All politics is local.
All politics is local. Unless you lose, then it's someone else's fault. I'm glad you're keeping at least some of us real on the local perspectives that led up to these results. Look forward to following how this plays out over the next year. Also, I took a peek at Jihadica and there seems to be rumblings that AQ (levant forward) is trying to coalesce in some form to attack Israel. I wonder if this will figure into this next period of time, or if they just remain a part of the greater imagination in Lebanon?
Now for something completely different. Apparently my wise @$$ed remark that the Uighars were headed for Johnston Atoll and a life time of scuba diving wasn't that far off the mark after all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/10/world/10palau.html?hp
Do you mean to suggest that
Do you mean to suggest that I - an American college student - am above average? And does this, in turn, mean that CNAS will hire me? Please advise.
Your point is well-taken
Your point is well-taken about the need not the exagarate America's influence in places like Lebanon and I agree.
But to play the devil's advocate, is it fair to say that Saudi Arabia and Egypt, US Allies could easily have responsible for more than the 5% that Friedman attributes to Bush and Obama? And on that basis, maybe the US ability to affect elections in Lebanon is maybe as strong as Friedman suggests?
"As more than one Lebanese
"As more than one Lebanese whispered to me: Without George Bush standing up to the Syrians in 2005 "
The problem was that both Lebanese had the last name of Hariri.
Second, a solid majority of
Second, a solid majority of all Lebanese — Muslims, Christians and Druse — voted for the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri...
Does he not even care about what he writes anymore? The official Lebanese figures show that March 8 gained 55% of the popular vote, while March 14 had 45%. The reason this translates into the exact opposite proportion of parliamentary mandates mandates is ethnoreligious gerrymandering and the built-in discrimination against Muslims, particularly Shia, whose votes quite simply count for a lot less. (Christians make up perhaps 35% of the population, but are guaranteed 50% of seats, etc.)
One would think he knew something of the biases of the Lebanese election system after covering the country for several years in the 70s, especially since he repeatedly referred to it in his writings then. But apparently, crafting a cheesy supernarrative has become more important than sticking to the basic whys and hows. It's embarrassing that the NYT will print this nonsense.
Juan Cole gives Obama a lot
Juan Cole gives Obama a lot of credit over on Salon, and says that this shows that "It's Obama's time in Beirut, not Khamenei's". Woo!
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/06/10/lebanon/
Tom Friedman, Juan Cole ...
Tom Friedman, Juan Cole ...
Uhhhh, can't we find someone who can speak intelligently on Lebanon? What next, Major Junior?
Paging Mo and Rex. Mo and Rex, you're wanted on the bearded, kilted one's blog. Stat.
"No, in Lebanon it was the
"No, in Lebanon it was the real deal, and the results were fascinating: President Barack Obama defeated President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran."
I love how he set that sentence up; as if he was about to make a lucid observation that had previously eluded other analysts, only to end up making a remark only a jackass would make. Every MP Hezbollah fielded won. The only thing this election has shown so far is that there are more Lebanese Christians who are pro-Western/anti-Syrian than those who are not.
"That's the sound of the
"That's the sound of the sinking feeling I get when I realize that all the average university-educated American will know about the Lebanese elections he or she will learn from today's Tom Friedman column."
'Average university-educated American' sounds funny to me in that sentence, I dunno why. Why single out university-educated people? Do non-university educated people not care about the world, or something? I bet NPR or other FM/AM radio is the source of info about things like foreign elections for a lot of working American people - easy to listen in the car while commuting. Someone probably has the data.
Also, I think it's an age thing, not an education or class thing - the older you get, the more likely you are to pay attention to the news, the retirees in my neighborhood are the most up on things because of experience and because they have time to read lots of things.
**Re: the other post - I got rid of cable and use my tee vee for, well, nothing really. What. A. Waste. Of. Time. And. Money.
Look at it this way, Madhu,
Look at it this way, Madhu, at this rate Exum will be mentioning Sarah Palin's perspective on Lebanon, her words cribbed from an overheard conversation at a Starbuck's near CNAS.
I default to giving credit to Christopher Hitchens. Say what you want about him, but I believe he picked the election's winners.
Hope ain't a plan? Don't tell that to Hitch!
Snli, http://qifanabki.com/
Snli, http://qifanabki.com/ is still very smart.
I could listen to Qifa
I could listen to Qifa Nabki, Fnord, or I could look at others who haven't been writing long (and as it turns out, perhaps unconvincing) pieces on Michel Aoun as the game-changer of the Levant.
At MESH, Exum's reply has triggered even more replies, not only from the very fine Rex Brynen but also, from the right, Lee Smith and J. Scott Carpenter.
I think Exum and Brynen are correct in their assessments, but I don't fancy myself an expert on Lebanon. I do, however, consider myself most astute at identifying fat-assed Monkey Sheikhs who now can be blamed for dicking up elections well within their grasp.
Nasrallah and Aoun seem, to me, increasingly tone deaf to the internal politics of Lebanon, especially the primal motivations of Christians. For Nasrallah, the fat-assed Monkey Sheikh, this might be forgiven.
For Aoun? Uhhh, not so much.
As the joke goes, there apparently are more Sunni Christians than Shiite Christians. How much of that can we blame on Nasrallah and how much on Aoun perhaps is what's really open for debate.
Snli (?): My sixth sense
Snli (?): My sixth sense tells me that Hezb laid down and was quite happy to play the autonome not reponsible part for some more years. I have a hard time visualizing the LA disarming them at gunpoint any time soon. So maybe Nabkis wrong judgement should be seen in that light.
Fnord, I have zero faith in
Fnord, I have zero faith in the conspiracy theories currently circulating that suggest the Party of God wanted to lose this election.
I don't buy that for a second. I think they assumed they were going to win, and in a very ill-chosen series of speeches designed to rally the faithful to the polls, they used language that made former Shiite Christians into Sunni Christians.
The inability for Aoun to hear that disgruntlement or use his considerable Rolodex and charm to nevertheless deliver a victory for his coalition stands out, too.
But, again, I'm not the resident expert on Lebanon.
Im not an expert either. But
Im not an expert either. But cost-benefit...? We will see in three days, after Iran.
Soldier isn't the resident
Soldier isn't the resident expert on anything...
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