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Twittering the Revolution: Don't Believe the Hype?
First off, let me praise those bloggers -- Andrew Sullivan, Nico Pitney, Robert Mackey -- who have used Twitter feeds from Iran to tirelessly live-blog the uprising in Tehran. But all the same, I am happy that articles and analysis are now popping up that question the actual usefulness of Twitter as a tool of the revolution. Because it seems apparent that while Twitter has been useful in getting news out of Iran, it has been the more old-school techniques -- like, you know, word of mouth -- that have really been the driving forces behind organizing the protests that have shaken the mullahs.
The New York Times puts things in perspective in today's paper:
Skeptics note that only a small number of people used Twitter to organize protests in Iran and that other means — individual text messaging, old-fashioned word of mouth and Farsi-language Web sites — were more influential. But Twitter did prove to be a crucial tool in the cat-and-mouse game between the opposition and the government over enlisting world opinion.
More nuance arrives in today's Washington Post:
First, Twitter's own internal architecture puts limits on political activism. There are so many messages streaming through at any moment that any single entry is unlikely to break through the din, and the limit of 140 characters -- part of the service's charm and the secret of its success -- militates against sustained argument and nuance. (Yes, "Give me liberty or give me death" totals just 32 characters, but Patrick Henry's full speech exceeded 1,200 words.) What's most exciting is the aggregate effect of all this speech and what it reveals about the zeitgeist of the moment, but it still reflects a worldwide user population that skews wealthy, English-speaking and well-educated. The same is true of the blogosphere and social networks such as Facebook.
Second, governments that are jealous of their power can push back on cyberspace when they feel threatened. The Iranian state runs one of the world's most formidable online censorship regimes. In the past week alone, officials have blocked access to YouTube, Facebook and the majority of Web sites most often cited by reformist segments of the Persian blogosphere. They supplement this censorship with surveillance and the threat of imprisonment for those who speak out. Even if they fail to block political speech or organizing activities, the possibility of future retaliation can chill the most devoted activists and critics.
Paradoxically, the "freedom to scream" online may actually assist authoritarian regimes by serving as a political release valve of sorts. If dissent is channeled into cyberspace, it can keep protesters off the streets and help state security forces track political activism and new online voices. As Egyptian democracy activist Saad Ibrahim said last week during a discussion at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington, this appears to be part of a long tradition for governments in the Middle East, especially in Egypt, where dissent is channeled into universities and allowed to thrive there, as long as it does not escape the university walls.
Third, the blogosphere is not limited to young, liberal, anti-regime activists; state sympathizers are increasingly active in the battle for online supremacy. Our research into the Iranian blogosphere shows that political and religious conservatives are no less prominent than regime critics. While the Iranian blogosphere is indeed a place where women speak out for their rights, young people criticize the morality police, journalists fight censorship, reformists press for change, and dissidents call for revolution, it is also a place where the supreme leader is praised, the Holocaust denied, the Islamic Revolution defended and Hezbollah celebrated. It is also a place where Islamist student groups mobilize and pro-establishment leaders, including President Ahmadinejad, reach out to their constituents within the Iranian public. Our most recent research suggests that the number and popularity of politically conservative and Islamic bloggers has grown over the past year, relative to the number of secular reformists, possibly due to the events leading up to the presidential election.
So let's not go all Twitter crazy just yet. Oh, and Evgeny Morozov went off on Foreign Policy's net.effect blog. Worth reading.
My comment posted on
My comment posted on FP:
"And here we have the bad part of the blogosphere: Some young guy in the State department *actually makes the right call* and the internets immediately decide to cut him down. Im not sure if your ego allows you to see beyond the personal angle ("Who does he think he is?") but by making that public play he sent a message of goodwill to the demonstrators. In the real world, where people actually *die*, that matters.
But I guess it was just a egomanifestation, eh? DOnt want the kid to think he actually made a difference in the public sphgere of politics. I mean, hell,next the State dep. might start doing politics. /snark/"
Like it or not, Twitter became symbolic (in the west) of this movement, because it implies a generational gap. Its useless and stupid, but still.
Glad you are getting into
Glad you are getting into the game papal nuncio, er ....Dr XM. Can you tap someone for the "Green" part of the revolution that's in progress (the people part) if your reluctant to step out of expertise zone.
I say revolution in progess in the hope it's not a crushing pogrom instead.
Times is right on word of mouth (from my reading only) but it's been hugely important in getting the word out to the West. Remember it's the only non-print media game in town, as Fox candidly admitted last night, as the Western media has been forbidden to broadcast. I see Mr Roger Cohen is being quite brave on the ground, however...as I am sure others are...
@Fnord has a point - the OSI guy comes across as mean spirited. Is it being hyped? Yes. But it's hardly throwing off our analysis or going to cause us to make a stategic blunder if the youth of the West feel part of this or connected to the Iranian people - let it be hyped, it will do no harm, and much good for freedom. And I see plenty of evidence that what the West thinks, and what the American President says is very important to the protestors.
And with all due respect, I think it's time the Man steps to the side of the ring and slowly increases his words of encouragement. I said side of the ring . I am aware of the history, I am aware of the risk. I advise care and prudence. I am also aware that history at least was swept aside for great numbers of former slaves in 1989.
Rarely in life do nations have their cherished ideals coincide with vital national interests, more often they collide, and sadly interest usually wins. This is a rare moment where they are the same. Don't pass it up.
Europe, the UN and the American Center Left Press (NYT, Wapo) and most of the world (even the local neighbors!) are now in front of us... and indeed that may be wise . But now is the time to lead, however reluctantly.* The world is waiting. They'll follow.
elf will follow.
*actually if they are letting the world drag us into it reluctantly - that's brilliant. Full turnaround.
Oh, uhhh...you forgot this
Oh, uhhh...you forgot this cogent and coherent article by Thomas Friedman. Must be an oversight...
Cogent Friedman
Twitter counts. Not for
Twitter counts. Not for everything. But certainly for something.
Marc Sageman's Leaderless Jihad downplays the role of extremist Islamic ideology and ideas because so many jihadists don't echo the thinking and rationale of theological leaders.
But this ignores that, years ago, the Vietnamese communist insurgents defined "propaganda" as the spread of many ideas among a few people, and "agitation" as the spread of a few ideas among many people.
Twitter, Facebook, et. al. enable elites to develop among themselves themes that can be used to spread a few crucial ideas to many people.
Twitter and other internet communications paint the mottoes we see on the barricades' banners.
I've had an automatic page
I've had an automatic page refresh set up on Iranian Govt. Websites for a couple days now as part of a DDoS 'attack' that the Anonymous people (that group that makes the creepy videos against scientology) and the Pirate Bay are encouraging. I know it's pointless and doesn't help the opposition at all where the rubber meets the road, but at least it gives me the sensation of having done something, even if in reality I have done nothing.
Broadly, though, I'd say that you're right, AM. Twitter is pretty-much useless. For everything. I've never been able to convey a coherent message with anything but the simplest of information in 140 characters or less. There are a number of facebook groups that are more useful and provide more multimedia embeds. Those might turn out to be more important anyway; that video of the girl bleeding to death in the street is getting a huge reaction.
What sort of real-world assistance could we be providing to the Opposition that helps them in a tangible way but that doesn't immediately make them look like stooges of the US? We can't exactly invade their airspace with EC-130s, but is there some kind of electronic warfare system that we can employ to disrupt the personal communication devices that the police are using? This has to be an unsettling experience for them, and they might be more vulnerable if their different positions were cut-off from one another. Otherwise, could we somehow improve the demonstrators' ability to communicate with one another? Forgive my Ignorance of these things; whenever I comment here I look like an idiot at a Mensa meeting.
"Some young guy in the State
"Some young guy in the State department *actually makes the right call* and the internets immediately decide to cut him down."
Exactly. Feel free to argue about the actual effect of twitter/the new media on events in Iran, but to say it came down to this guy wanting a paragraph on wikipedia (and how many people will ever read that entry?) is vindictive to an extreme degree.
Foreign Policy magazine is becoming a black hole of suck.
Okay, I've been seeing that
Okay, I've been seeing that as well today, and you're probably right. See what I mean? Massive idiot. To be clear, not all of the servers hit were in Iran, but once again, trying to help makes things worse. Should've just let it go.
Both Jpost and US types
Both Jpost and US types (?K-hammer) are pushing their respective govt's to make more physical bandwidth - satellite and apparently repeaters on border to push more bandwidth to Iran. I am not sure that will help since my reading (wash times) indicates the Iranians are running all bandwidth through a central point. Also push US Gov to push more broadcasts into Iran via Radio Free Persia and America to tell them what we are seeing happening inside Iran.
I can't vouch for these schemes, just passing it on. I also will note that Congress made funds available to help Iran democrats in 2006, and neither Bush nor BHO administration have employed it yet. IMO now is the time...
above is me for @Raymond
above is me for @Raymond .....
I think if you look at
I think if you look at social media as tools you could make an argument that as mass communication tools social media is more effective then tools that have previously been used, but obviously having a facebook group or a popular twitter hashtag does not make a revolution. Fahreed Zakaria had a decent discussion about this on GPS today. One of the interesting points was that even though you can shut down the internet and cell phones to make them relatively ineffective the government has to take such broad steps that more people feel impacted which can help them associate with the opposition movement.
The other thing to consider is if you break the discussion down by inside of Iran vs. outside of Iran the discussion changes some. Inside of Iran probably the most effective tool is digital videos/pictures. Not that it helps organize but it is probably curbing at least some of the violence from the regime. This is supported by the fact that they are now cracking down on anyone they even see in the streets with a camera and/or cell phone. In terms of spreading information, especially photos/video, youtube may host them but it seems like twitter/facebook are spreading those links to a broad public faster than anyhthing previously.
Social media may not make a revolution but it certainly globalizes it.
I think if you look at
I think if you look at social media as tools you could make an argument that as mass communication tools social media is more effective then tools that have previously been used, but obviously having a facebook group or a popular twitter hashtag does not make a revolution. Fahreed Zakaria had a decent discussion about this on GPS today. One of the interesting points was that even though you can shut down the internet and cell phones to make them relatively ineffective the government has to take such broad steps that more people feel impacted which can help them associate with the opposition movement.
The other thing to consider is if you break the discussion down by inside of Iran vs. outside of Iran the discussion changes some. Inside of Iran probably the most effective tool is digital videos/pictures. Not that it helps organize but it is probably curbing at least some of the violence from the regime. This is supported by the fact that they are now cracking down on anyone they even see in the streets with a camera and/or cell phone. In terms of spreading information, especially photos/video, youtube may host them but it seems like twitter/facebook are spreading those links to a broad public faster than anyhthing previously.
Social media may not make a revolution but it certainly globalizes it.
Long time reader. First time
Long time reader. First time commentator. Here we go:
In my mind insurgencies, protests, and elections can be though of having the same purpose in that they are events that serve as one party or group challenging another party or groups legitimate right to rule either through the ballot, the sign, or the gun. The purpose is to delegitimatize one side and legitimatize our own position as the opposition.
The confrontation between the Iranian regime and the Iranian people has been internationalized thoroughly by being regularly featured on the news, websites, because of the information featured on Twitter. In that sense every move the regime makes is judged,analyzed and criticized. The first consequence of the confrontation being internationalized is that now there is domestic pressure for the US and EU to act in some way to protect or help the protesters. The second consequence is that the Iranian regime is increasingly looking illegitimate and its grip on power loose. The protesters are increasingly looking legitimate in their claims of an illegitimate regime. Domestically this is a leverage point. The regime must either crush the opposition and look like severe authoritarian regime and lose face in international affairs. Or break bread with the opposition in some way., by stepping down or inclusion in some way.
At the end of the day bang-bang beats tweet-tweet. Twitter, in this case, has done what weapons can not: push the confrontation away from just a policing action on the regime's part into a political confrontation that can only be solved politically not by Revolutionary Guards or Baseej.
I don't know if is right or deals with all the arguments. My field is more focused on Iran, Iraq, and Shia Islam. Insurgencies, military affairs et al is really just an enjoyable side adventure.
" But Twitter did prove to
" But Twitter did prove to be a crucial tool in the cat-and-mouse game between the opposition and the government over enlisting world opinion." - NYT
"The confrontation between the Iranian regime and the Iranian people has been internationalized thoroughly by being regularly featured on the news, websites, because of the information featured on Twitter. " - Sina the Shia Ninja
"Social media may not make a revolution but it certainly globalizes it." - bojengle
Interesting. Different from televised images because new media/Twitter is more interactive? Less easily shutdown? Allows a sense of participation? Or more than a sense of participation? Is the real story regarding Twitter the emotional response of some in the West, feelings of solidarity strengthened by being part of online community?
Well, I can idly speculate with the rest, I suppose. And, I suppose, the answers won't be clear any time soon. There - a perfectly academic, non-commital statement.
Hmm....well if insurgency is
Hmm....well if insurgency is a side venture, Sina, that may make you a insurgent Pirate , but that's your call....
O/T but on blog...Peter Higgins has a good article this AM on lessons from Sri Lanka...I am looking forward to the definitive book on the 40 year civil war....
Lessons from Sri Lanka -Defeating the enemy on the battlefield.
There's some talk on the chatter box that the regime in Iran is slowly going to erode the opposition away if they can...and they are having some success slowly squeezing the electronic social networks out of business...let's see how creative people can be...
Twitter "revolutionaries"
Twitter "revolutionaries" are great entertainment.
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