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Well, well, well... Lebanon's Elections: Winners and Losers
So forget any and all predictions I make on this blog. Nothing is yet official, but it looks as if the March 14th coalition will win the elections in Lebanon -- by perhaps a wider margin than any of us would have guessed 24 hours ago.
So what does it mean? Well, my initial thoughts on some winners and losers:
Winners:
Saudi Money: While all signs point toward a free and fair election having taken place, the fact that rivals both inside and outside of Lebanon spent a lot of money on this election should not be ignored. I heard one estimate that March 14th was expected to spend upwards of $500 million. That is surely more than was actually spent, but maybe not too much more than Mr. Hariri and his Saudi allies dropped on this one.
Hizballah: Hey, look on the bright side, boys! Now you don't have to govern. It's a lot easier to be in the opposition if you're Hizballah. You still keep your arms, and there is less pressure from the outside. I can't help but think not everyone in Hizballah was looking forward to all the attention that would have come along with an electoral victory.
U.S. Central Command and Department of Defense: Both would have faced some really tough questions from the Congress concerning aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces if Hizballah had won.
Nepotism: Goodness gracious, how many Gemayels won? Did Nayla Tueni win too? Still, voter turnout was something crazy like 54+%. That's great news, even if people used their votes to elect the same old names.
The Maronite Patriarch: The old man's still got it. An effective last-minute intervention.
Losers:
Hizballah: Well, let's see, what has happened since the 2005 elections? Well, there was that huge war that devastated the country and was kicked off by a dumb kidnapping, and then there was that thing in May 2008 where an armed militia and its allies took over the middle class neighborhoods of western Beirut while the rest of Lebanon and the Lebanese diaspora watched on television. Hmm... I'm going to go out on a limb here, but maybe -- just maybe -- those two events gave the Christians of Lebanon a slight pause about supporting Hizballah. I've said it before and I'll say it again here: for Hizballah, from a domestic political perspective, I think the events of May 2008 were an even bigger miscue than the July 2006 war. At least in 2006, the other side reacted in such a way as to make people forget who started the conflict. The sight of Hizballah gunmen imposing their political will by force on the streets of Beirut in 2008, though, will continue to cost Hizballah and its allies.
Israeli hard-liners: Boy, they would have loved it if they could have shoved a Hizballah victory in Obama's face. And if Hizballah had won, its arms would have been the subject of more scrutiny from the international community, perhaps. Now all eyes will be on the Iranian elections. And if Ahmadinejad loses, someone might want to put Moshe Ya'alon on suicide watch.
Nasrallah: What a silly quote this is: "Whatever the results of the election, we cannot change the standing delicate balances or repeat the experiences of the past which led to catastrophes on Lebanon," he told Reuters. Oh, come on, guys, what's a pesky democratic process between friends? Can we please keep our blocking third anyway? Pleeeeease?
Which makes me wonder what, exactly, will come of that blocking third in the cabinet? Last night, a friend asked me if Hizballah would keep the blocking third -- allowing it veto power over all legislation -- even if March 14th won the election. Well, I did not think that March 14th would win, honestly, but I could see how they might squeek by with a victory. So I said that Hizballah would likely keep the blocking third. After all, I said, "they have the guns." Now, though, with March 14th winning more seats than I would have thought -- 7-0 in Zahle! 3-0 in Koura! -- I am not sure what's going to happen. A deal will be struck, but a lot more will be on the table for discussion than I would have thought possible.
It's going to be an interesting next few weeks...
Yup, that's where it comes
Yup, that's where it comes from: "Stop, let us weep..."A lot of March 8 are talking
A lot of March 8 are talking about the mistake of allying with "Kawmi Sermeyeh Souri"? I cannot find much on the english internet to find out who he/they are.
See:
See: http://qifanabki.com/2008/10/01/the-meaning-of-qifa-nabki/
Heh, heh, it would be
Heh, heh, it would be strange indeed if the leftie blogosphere did not jump into action claiming the credit for Obama.
If so, how hillarious is it that Obama sells George's neo con policies better than George did! I betcha Obama would have cleaned up Iraq in two days. The Mullahs in Persia must be trembling.
smg
Visitor with Question: SSNP.
Visitor with Question: SSNP.
Andrew Sullivan crediting
Andrew Sullivan crediting Obama due to the victory of the March 14 (which Bush/Rice were ridiculed for supporting) ?
Sullivan should of been laughed off the internet ages ago.
i was monitoring for most of
i was monitoring for most of the day in beirut district 1, which was the only swing district in the city, and quite hotly contested. one polling station in achrefiah (the ali abi taleb high school) had a lot of drama going on early in the day. women were yelling and pushing each other and chanting and cheering and wigging out etc inside the polling station proper, and MPs were going inside the polling station to rally the troops and intimidate the opposition… all of which was quite illegal, but doesn't seem to have affected the outcome. most of the sketchy stuff died down by the afternoon, though, and each time i went back there later in the day it was more tranquil.
i was on a roving team so i went from polling station to polling station - we eventually got bored after lunch and started going to polling stations all over the city. partisans from all sides were in good spirits and non-confrontationally campaigning alongside each other in the streets. i did see a remarkably more visible lebanese forces presence in beirut 1, though – i had expected to see more orange in the streets, and that turns out to have been reflected in the final numbers.
while i didn’t expect that aoun’s message would resonate as well as some seemed to think it would, i had no idea that this level of a mandate was in the offing. not that i’m complaining, really, but now let’s see whether m14 can be magnanimous in victory, and whether m8 will be gracious in defeat.
I called this one wrong too,
I called this one wrong too, AM--I had it in the office pool as a narrow M8 victory (which is where the polls were showing it headed).
Why then the M14 victory? In general, I agree with you.
Part of it might have been turnout: Lebanese polls tend to ask all respondents for political preference, not just "likely voters". Even with the high turnout, almost half of Lebanese (and more than half in Beirut) didn't bother to vote. One might try reading something into the variations in turnout across districts, although given how many Lebanese don't vote in their district of residence that might be a futile exercise.
Big factor? May 8--it did far more damage to Hizbullah's reputation outside the Shiite community than M8 understood or cared to admit (that, at least, I got right), and especially in Beirut. Nasrallah's poorly timed and crafted speech this May, coupled with Aoun's alliance with the SSNP and recent visit to Syria, didn't help. The Patriarch's last minute comments on the threat to Lebanon's Arab character (implicitly, from Iran/Hizbullah) certainly helped M14 too.
Minor factor? The Obama speech, perhaps, but I must admit that I'm doubtful given how little attention it commanded in Lebanon. I suspect that the Biden visit had no effect at all.
Money? It always matters in Lebanese elections, and there was more than ever this time around. However, while Mustaqbal outspent everyone in the campaign, everyone else spent a lot too (and, it shouldn't be forgotten, the majority of Hizbullah's overall activities are funded from outside).
The actual campaign? The PR was great, but the campaign content on almost all sides was thin. Much of M14's campaign was fear-mongering about the consequences of a M8 victory--then again, fear-mongering often works.
RB (northern edition)
Yup -- this makes sense to
Yup -- this makes sense to me. I think we are more or less eye-to-eye, though given the success with which we predicted the outcome, I'm not sure I would trust our explanations for what went wrong/right!The wapo journalist is
The wapo journalist is making a joke at Akl's unwitting expense -- angryarab missed this too.
Yeah, I figured the
Yeah, I figured the journalist grasped the irony. Akl, alas, did not.I sense an inconsistency in
I sense an inconsistency in your argument - you say Hizballah suffered at the polls because of a lack of political savvy and therefore is a loser along with, consequently, hardliners etc - but how does it dilute what hardliners have to say if all that is lacking is for Hizballah to get better at playing politics? Or are you saying that it's in the nature of a thing like Hizballah to never figure out the politics, which would be to say a very different thing altogether? Same goes with your suggestion that it's really not in Hizballah's best interests to succeed as a political entity: I'm not at all convinced that the three statements - Hizballah is a loser, hardliners are losers, Hizballah is a winner - I'm not convinced that those three statements can be fit together in any logical way.
So what is Hizbullah's next
So what is Hizbullah's next move? Seems like, as AM hinted, this might allow them to return to their roots as the "opposition" rather than facing the prospect of actual governing responsibility. Any relationship between this and Hizbullah's "international" activities, i.e. activities outside of Lebanon? Will this allow them to focus more on those activities, since they don't have to worry about governing? Or will it mean they have to double down in Lebanon to maintain their support?
There is still a delay
There is still a delay between when you post a comment and when it shows up, btw. Is that going to get dealt with?
I predicted a M14 victory,
I predicted a M14 victory, and am in the proccess of collecting bets.
As said a couple weeks ago post Der Spiegal Story,
http://zawiyatalkuffar.wordpress.com/
"I think M14 has a real chance of winding up with a slim majority after the election, and it won’t be because of this story."
I think the "suprising" M14 victory is likely due to the fact that M14 Christians were more likely to vote 'lists' then FPMers. M14 Christians largely bought the rhetoric that this was a election on national identity, and they avoided any opposition aligned candidates like the plague. Alot of the FPM rank and file don't genuinely views themselves as part of a M8th bloc. They don't see a shared interest with Hizballah and Amal beyond getting their guy more power. And if they do see a shared interest (Tawteen, shafting the Druze, balancing out the Sunni powerbase) it doesn't over ride their skepticism of Hizballah and disgust for Amal/SSNP/other reprobates they're aligned with. As such FPMers were more likely to vote outside party or movement lines...
In the end, Nasrallah's
In the end, Nasrallah's hubris was M8's undoing. But something that hasn't been mentioned here is Murr's split from Aoun. I think that cost M8 dearly. I predict that it's downhill from here for Aoun.
In the end, Nasrallah's
In the end, Nasrallah's hubris was M8's undoing. But something that hasn't been mentioned here is Murr's split from Aoun. I think that cost M8 dearly. I predict that it's downhill from here for Aoun.
"Yeah, I figured the
"Yeah, I figured the journalist grasped the irony. Akl, alas, did not."
Umm, please note that the journalist quoted a LAWYER. In such cases, it is advisable to look at the fine print.
"This is our first election that is NOT JUST about a family or a name"
In this case the trick is the "not just" part: Of course it's ALSO about the families etc ...
But from what I read so far (I'm no expert on Lebanon in any way, btw) it seems to me that one reason M 14 won was the fact that their voters were able to go beyond their narrow factions and vote for lists that featured M 14 candidates from other factions in areas were their own candidates didn't stand a chance ...
So the lawyer was right after all ... ;-)
Positroll
Why do all the news reports
Why do all the news reports say "western backed coalition..." when referring to M14? Isn't is the Saudi's money?
While Nasrallah's "May 7"
While Nasrallah's "May 7" speech deserves some blame, I also think Aoun's recent antics with Sleiman and the possibility of his presidency in lieu of a M8 win did not endear Christian swing voters to his side. The current president is actually a lot more popular than is given credit.
I'm glad that the election results were so clear-cut, though I'm not a fan of either faction. We Lebanese love to milk election ambiguities for all they are worth, so this level of a "mandate" puts the kibosh on potential voter squabbles (though we can quibble about some of the stupider aspects of Lebanese electoral law - um, no pre-printed ballots???). The real test right now is cabinet formation. I don't see M14 giving the opposition a blocking third. Best case scenario - 3-4 seats for the president's centrist bloc to give him greater power as a mediator on the tougher issues. I'm really curious though about the FPM's post-election role within the opposition. I'm not sure this coalition and/or Aoun's ego is going to survive the fallout.
I am surprised by the extent
I am surprised by the extent of Michel Aoun's loss. Is there any way that Amal could become the dominant Shia party instead of Hezbollah? Would that be a game changer? Is there a way for moderate Hezbollah leaders to become more popular?
I don't find the prospect of Michel Aoun being PM or President scary. He might have dumped Hezbollah after reaching high office. Michel isn't known for his loyalty.
I am surprised by the extent
I am surprised by the extent of Michel Aoun's loss. Is there any way that Amal could become the dominant Shia party instead of Hezbollah? Would that be a game changer? Is there a way for moderate Hezbollah leaders to become more popular?
I don't find the prospect of Michel Aoun being PM or President scary. He might have dumped Hezbollah after reaching high office. Michel isn't known for his loyalty.
RB, were you there for
RB, were you there for academic interests, or in a more official role?
Mo, I think you're right about Michel Aoun. But I've always wondered just how much traction he really had. Arriving back in 2005, a great deal had changed. While he thought he was picking a rising star, how much did the near coup in Beirut work against him?
The reason why I ask is because if there's any major figure in Lebanon who has a history of picking bad horses, it would be Aoun.
He chose to continue prosecuting a losing war against Syria. When we tried again to oust Syria, he chose to support Saddam Hussein. He opposed M14, opting to quietly support the very same Syrian forces he once opposed.
In 2006, he hitched his horse to Hizbollah, not realizing perhaps that the representative of the southern Shiites would attempt to force political change (and scare the living crap out of a great many Christians and Sunnis).
If there's anyone who is more tone deaf to the mood of the very people he claims to represent than Aoun, I have no idea who it would be. Samir Geagea?
SNLII, Yes, but if you told
SNLII,
Yes, but if you told me a Maronite candidate was going to ally himself with a pro-Syrian bloc and make friends with the bearded ones (and visit IRAN), I would ask you how many family members does he have and that would be the number of votes I would expect. The tsunami label is well-chosen. He is a force like few others in Lebanon.
Moreover, throw in the 2006 war and May 7 events and I would have said only his mother would vote for him. And her, wishy-washy.
He does all this ... and still gets somewhere near 50 percent of the Christian vote. Of course, it is much more complicated than that and has to be broken down geographically and politically, but it is still astounding.
The big question is will FPM survive his death or will it fracture (lots of different strands within).
"He does all this ... and
"He does all this ... and still gets somewhere near 50 percent of the Christian vote"
It appears as if there are more Christian Sunnis than Christian Shiites, as the joke goes.
As for winners, Exum, where
As for winners, Exum, where would you place Michel Murr, Michel Sleiman and Patriarch Sfeir?
Murr and Sleiman will get something out of this. Sfeir perhaps isn't as interested in worldly gains.
SNLII, good observations on
SNLII, good observations on Aoun. The man is simply not a great political mind. His megalomania always gets the best of him. If he has any political sense he'll distance himself from Hezballah or he'll keep losing the Christians. The shi3a and Armenian votes saved him in this election; I’m not sure they'll be there for him next time. He might not be the messiah after all.
Sfeir is as interested in
Sfeir is as interested in worldly power as anyone else. "Kidnapping?" Yeah, only when Israelis are taken is it "kidnapping." Guess who else won? Khalid Daher, the Salafi radical from Tripoli. He is apparently now "pro-Western." Congratulations, Salafi Saudi money. America and Junior Hariri just can't quit you.
Ex: A few comments on your
Ex: A few comments on your post.
1) Is nepotism really the winner? Sure some unlikely Gemayels and a Tueni were elected. But a Mouawad wasn't. More importantly, Aoun's relatives--Mario and Gibran Bassil--got tossed.
2) I'm not sure Hassan is a loser here. Read al Akhbar yesterday. Hizballah and company are already blaming Aoun for the nakba, and threatening a return to before May 7 if the moqawama doesn't get the blocking third. And they'll get it, eventually.
3) You might want to consider adding Iran to the losers list. I can imagine some really disappointed mullahs in Tehran, after coming so close to giving Obama a bloody nose in Beirut.
DS
Considering that both sides
Considering that both sides spent money uncontrollably during these elections, I would suggest adding "Iranian Money" to the list of losers. This would balance out "Saudi Money" which appeared in your list of winners. Need a justification?
I will not rely on hearsay but on personal knowledge: I know people who were flown over from Canada by the March 8 coalition ("First class", they boasted) and from the USA by the March 14 coalition (economy class, mind you). While these practices are reprehensible, I would lay the blame squarely on the people who are on the receiving end of the bribes: One cannot sell one's conscience for the price of a plane ticket and then scream about the corruption of the political class.
Please do not take my name
Please do not take my name to make comments. "SNLII, the Horse" isn't the real SNLII.
Will the real SNLII please stand up, please stand up?
I am not sure who wrote
I am not sure who wrote this, but obviously, he/she lacks the knowledge of what's going on in Lebanon. It amazes me how people say whatever they want as long as they don't live in the south and they haven't tasted occupation.
Considering hizbullah kidnapping the 2 Israeli soldiers "dumb", has been obviously taken from the literature of 14 March movement...(if there is anything moving besides Saudi money). Well... with due all respect, Israel needs no execuse to attack.. and ultimately, the kidnapping of the 2 Israeli soldiers ended in the release of all Prisoners from Israel..It is amazing how short our memory is...
Actually, you can't "kidnap"
Actually, you can't "kidnap" soldiers- you take them prisoner. This is one of the tricks the Western media has played on people...It's like when Israel "detains" Palestinians MPs, which you also can't do. In that case, those MPs were kidnapped
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