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Advice on Iraq
Uh oh, Meghan O'Sullivan has something to say about Iraq...
While visiting Iraq this month, Biden spoke of a need to broker a grand bargain between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, and to resolve disputes between "the different confessional groups." He made clear that he -- and, presumably, the United States -- saw Iraq's challenges and solutions largely in terms of sectarian or ethnic groups. Discussing Iraq's problems in such terms pushes Iraqis back toward the boxes they have been trying to leave behind -- and undermines incipient movement away from the dominance of sectarian political identities toward issues-based politics.
To many Iraqis, such language is familiar. The failure in security from 2004 well into 2007 crystallized sectarian and ethnic identities; Sunni extremists and Shiite militias identified both their targets and those they protected on sectarian grounds. But this language is also increasingly outdated. Security improvements over the past two years have created space for Iraqis to begin moving away from seeing themselves and their problems in such terms. Indeed, in the provincial elections held in January, issues seemed to matter to voters at least as much as identities...
The current tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government are frequently presented simplistically as manifestations of historical animosities between Arabs and Kurds. Certainly, cultural factors do matter, and Iraq's long history -- including, of course, Saddam Hussein's brutal efforts to eradicate the Kurds -- shapes the nature of the problems and the lens through which they are viewed.
But the reality is that Iraq's most difficult problems are primarily about substantive issues. Iraqis and their leaders are divided on fundamental questions about the nature of the state -- specifically, whether the locus of power should be in Baghdad or in the provinces. Should Iraq be a more traditional Arab state, where power is centralized in the capital? Or should the regions and the provinces -- i.e., the KRG -- have substantial authorities and autonomy?
Now, I don't think this is bad advice--I've also questioned Biden's "appointment" as the de facto special envoy to Iraq. In a lot of ways his--and, more broadly, America's--conception of power-sharing and national reconciliation in Iraq seems trapped in the Bosnia paradigm of divvying up territory along ethnic lines and calling it peace. I don't think that's particularly helpful for Iraq. We have to avoid policies that reinforce the country's ethno-sectarian divisions (which, to be honest, O'Sullivan and some of those she advised played a role, even if inadvertently, in exacerbating in the early years of the war).
But do you really think the average Kurd or Arab in the street, let alone their respective leadership in Erbil and Baghdad, is thinking about this in terms of abstract federalism? I think it's likely that the identity issue is salient. There's a long history there that predates Saddam, and nobody's forgotten it. That doesn't mean that Kurds and Arabs are destined to fight for eternity, but it does make the situation much more dangerous and harder to solve than a federalism dispute between Washington and Sacramento.
_____
I've also been keeping track of the apparent controversy over Iraq's (gasp) tough enforcement of the SOFA terms to limit U.S. operations. Is this really that much of a surprise? It shouldn't be--I'm not sure what else we were expecting. It was clear from the beginning of the SOFA negotiations that the Iraqis were deadly serious about it. They want to run the show, and we have to respect that. They might not be as "ready" or effective as U.S. forces, but it seems like we really have to learn to let go a bit on the security front. Let's wait a bit and see how this shakes out before pronouncing it a disaster.
It's tough for Biden to be
It's tough for Biden to be an honest broker on this when he spent a good bit of the last six years arguing that the partition of Iraq was the best solution.
Biden has gone to Iraq twice
Biden has gone to Iraq twice so far and delivered the same message. 1) don't expect anymore reconstruction money 2) the us wants Iraqis to solve their own problems and if you screw it up the US won't come back in to save you. Following this they have finally started some quiet talks over Kirkuk with the UN.
Vice President Biden should
Vice President Biden should also remember that even the history of partitioning does not lend itself to particularly peaceful resolutions. India and Pakistan split and then continued to fight over disputed territory to the modern day. Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo have steadily split apart but ethnic minorities remain and tensions still flair; even requiring peacekeeping troops to the present day. If the country did decide on some split based on ethnic, religious or sectarian basis, the numbers of refugees, displacement and violence would stay the same during the transition. After, the possibility of interstate war would loom for generations.
Having said that, I totally agree that the Iraqi on the street most likely identifies first with their ethnic or religious background first, and their Iraqi nationality second. There are no easy answers in this conflict although we wish there were.
Michael C at www.onviolence.com
I think this comes down to a
I think this comes down to a matter of perception. Unfortunately Biden percieves the Iraqis as children who need to stay on their side of the playground and probably don't have much of chance at learning to get along without his "fatherly advice". Considering he himself comes from the pary of victimhood perhaps he views the Iraqis much the same way. Merely products of their enviroment and unfortunate victims of bush's policies who should be pittied by the western world. If the Iraqis no any better (and I suspect they do) they would ignore the human gaff machine and view him as the person he really is, a man who has spent the last 6 plus years mostly wrong about Iraq, and showing no sign that he's figuring it out.
Well, you guys... How about
Well, you guys... How about standing up for the Constitution yourself? Alleged terrorists? What the ... ?
Are we a nation divided, with a divided military service? Or are you strong enough to defend us, both at home and abroad.
Every soldier must be prepared to defend the principles of democratic equality. How cares about gay - more important is equal.
(I'm slow, but I usually get there in the end.)
slow, and dyslexic Who cares
slow, and dyslexic
Who cares about gay - more important is equal.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sha
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/stories/DN-iraq_0... "Protesters burned a U.S. flag in Sadr City, a crowded Baghdad slum, and chanted, 'No, no for occupation! No, no for America!'
"One of them, Mohammed Kathem, 40, an administrator, said many of the protesters hit the streets after an imam encouraged them to do so at Friday prayers.
"'Biden's visit sent the signal to us that Iraq will be divided,' he said. 'Biden's background doesn't allow him to play any role in reconciliation.'"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/03/AR200907...
"After Friday prayers, hundreds and possibly thousands of residents of Sadr City chanted "down, down USA" and burned U.S. flags in protest against Biden's visit. A smaller demonstration also took place in Kerbala, in the Shi'ite south.
"Biden helped author a 2006 plan to split Iraq into self-ruled Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish enclaves. That plan angered many Iraqis, and was quietly shelved as violence ebbed.
"'Biden has come here to divide Iraq according to his plan,' said a message from Sadr read out by one Imam in a mosque."
But I guess Chris Hill needed the help.
o'sullivan helped fuck up
o'sullivan helped fuck up iraq; could care less what she says.
Ibn, I have no problem
Ibn,
I have no problem with the Iraqis taking the lead. However, when it puts our soldiers' lives at risk (i.e. we are prevented from following up on intel and carrying out missions to safeguard lives) then everyone should have some concern. We are not overreacting to the Iraqis taking the lead. We are raising some legitimate grievances When will we stop making such a big fuss about it? When this stops being the case...
“Our [Iraqi] partners burn our fuel, drive roads cleared by our Engineers, live in bases built with our money, operate vehicles fixed with our parts, eat food paid for by our contracts, watch our [surveillance] video feeds, serve citizens with our [funds], and benefit from our air cover."
Thank you Maj. Gen. Bolger
I remember discussing this
I remember discussing this two years ago, and asking about to what extent the rebuilding was creating interdependent networts of commerce across Iraq, a kurdish factory producing bolts, shias screws and sunnis casings as an example. never heard an answer. Was that ever a part of the reconstructionplan? (And if not, is it being tried in Iraq?)
"I've also been keeping
"I've also been keeping track of the apparent controversy over Iraq's (gasp) tough enforcement of the SOFA..." agree with that entire paragraph.
Both that and the stated purpose of the Biden visit touch upon the broader issue of "who's in charge?" The Iraqi response at this point seems to boil down to "thanks for your interest, we'll let you know if we need you". The implied "but probably not" may or may not be realistic on their part, but I don't see it as negative, ungrateful, or unexpected.
"Let's wait a bit and see how this shakes out before pronouncing it a disaster." Good advice. For many Americans that would be a radical new approach to Iraq.
And they also live in a
And they also live in a country destroyed by "our" military.
In a lot of ways his--and,
In a lot of ways his--and, more broadly, America's--conception of power-sharing and national reconciliation in Iraq seems trapped in the Bosnia paradigm of divvying up territory along ethnic lines and calling it peace.
If Iraq is looking anything like as peaceful as Bosnia any time soon, it will be an entirely unexpected and shattering success for the US.
Fnord wrote: I remember
Fnord wrote:
I remember discussing this two years ago, and asking about to what extent the rebuilding was creating interdependent networts of commerce across Iraq, a kurdish factory producing bolts, shias screws and sunnis casings as an example. never heard an answer. Was that ever a part of the reconstructionplan? (And if not, is it being tried in Iraq?)
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No. The first wave of reconstruction projects were all huge projects. During the Surge it switched to more local and small scale projects like giving mini-grants and also an attempt to revive some of the state run businesses which were privatized by the CPA and then subsequently collapsed without govt. support. The last thing I read is that the Provincial Reconstruction Teams are going back to the large projects because they want to spend all of their money before it runs out and they pulll out of the country. I've never read anything about trying to create businesses or networks that would link different groups across the country as a purposeful plan. I would assume that if you get any large Iraqi business up and running it would be involved in as much commerce across the country as possible. One major problem was that when violence was high trade within the country was obviously severely handicapped. Also a lot of larger business in Iraq have been slammed by the fact that there are little to no tariffs in Iraq and the country has been swamped by cheap imports from Iran and Turkey mostly, followed by China and Syria.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH. I
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH. I usually dont lapse into vulgarities, but:
DEAR CNAS.
UPON ARRIVING, oh fuck it, feel free to read the rest in Caps Lock shouting: Upon arriving home I find in the news that you have decided to contribute to blowing the lid of one of Norways greatest honey-pot jihadis during an election campaign, Mullah Krekar thus quite possibly tipping the upcoming election in favour of the anti-islam anti-Obama party Frp. I understand that snorting coke with newsanchors is much more fun than doing actual work, so I have the greatest sympathy for Roger Carstens and his obvious fuck-you attitude to your allies in Afghanistan. Please feel free to continue to star in realityshows about the GWOT without doing any sort of research on the political climate in your allied countries. Please also feel free to contract rectal cancer. I gess I never understood that CNAS stands for North American Security *only*, and screw your allies. When the retaliationbombs set in (as is promised) I will send you a happy thought. Thank you.
On behalf of a lot of Norwegian intelligence and the pre-Rummy norwegian military
Fnord.
Wtf are you thinking? Wtf? Wtf???????
.......Except for that,
.......Except for that, thanks for answer Jwing. Sure seems like a salient point in nationbuilding, no? What about establishing PRT-funds to leave behind, under control of the World Bank/UN etc?
ajay, Iraq is more
ajay, Iraq is more successful than you think. Iraq has a capable nonsectarion nonpartisan professional army. Does Bosnia have one?
Meghan's piece is a bit
Meghan's piece is a bit obtuse. Is she seeking a NSC position in the Obama Administration? Or just can't leave Iraq behind? It was, to her, "a work in progress". Must like the work.
Fnord Silly boy - Norway's
Fnord
Silly boy - Norway's not an ally, its a theatre.
git some.
diablo: I keep on
diablo: I keep on forgetting. Did you know that our SF boys work together with the olympic athletes in best East Germany style?
Seriously, the Krekar move is a disaster on so many levels, I cant begin to count the ways. Did anyone consider that perhaps we had a *reason* to keep him alive, except for a bvleeding heart? No? Carsten?
"ajay, Iraq is more
"ajay, Iraq is more successful than you think. Iraq has a capable nonsectarian nonpartisan professional army. Does Bosnia have one?"
No. But, then again, where would you rather live?
Fnord, If you think CNAS
Fnord, If you think CNAS has any control whatsoever over Roger Carstens or the content of an NBC television program, you're quite mistaken. He hasn't worked at CNAS for quite some time. I'd gently suggest that you take your complaints to the television network.The Biden strategy for
The Biden strategy for promoting a sustainable political solution in Iraq has never had anything, whatsoever, to do with partition. But, try and force that fact through the thick skulls that make up much of the media and blogosphere. In fact, anyone who knows anything about this strategy knows that it remains the only way to AVOID partition.
And, federalism means many things to many people - especially when the people live under foreign occupation - and it has enough baggage attached to it in Iraq as to make it a four-letter word! But, that doesn't mean that the equivalent of federalism - or whatever the Iraqis want to call it - isn't the only way toward a stable and united Iraq, because some form of federalism (ie. a devolution of some power from the central government to the provinces or regions) is the only way to avoid a return to violence and more chaos and a hopelessly fragmented state...in my not so humble opinion.
Does anyone, anywhere have any better idea than what Biden has been advocating? If so, I have not heard about it.
We all are well aware about
We all are well aware about the Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistani's position. If today these countries are in trouble, we are the responsible for that. We do not have the right to indulge ourselves in others problems. If USA and EU gives loans to the poor countries it doesn't mean that they are our slaves.
We all are well aware about
We all are well aware about the Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistani's position. If today these countries are in trouble, we are the responsible for that. We do not have the right to indulge ourselves in others problems. If USA and EU gives loans to the poor countries it doesn't mean that they are our slaves.
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