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Send COIN manuals to India
July 13, 2009 | Posted by Ibn Muqawama - 10:27am | 24 Comments
Maoist insurgency remains alive and well in India. Clearly the solution is to send surplus copies of FM 3-24 to New Delhi. Who wants to organize the book drive?
Yeah, and the Nepalese mad
Yeah, and the Nepalese mad king should have gotten busloads of them many years ago. (Have the Maoists been taken off the terrorist list yet after they won the elections in Nepal, btw?)
Send Sareth Fonseka. If
Send Sareth Fonseka. If Asia's new Cop (Patrolman Han Stickwell, not to be confused with Han Solo) will OK it.
Somewhat more seriously, Hitler and HAMAS, and any number of dreary dictatorships won elections.
Now just plain seriously, is there anything to Pooles contention that China may be behind these Maoist insurgencies, or was he in total Ninjas on the Lawn.
There's not a lot of good
There's not a lot of good evidence to indicate that China is responsible for these insurgencies. Relations between China and India have always been kinda tense, but the local histories of the Naxalites and the Nepalese Maoists are well known. They emerged in grindingly poor, heavily left-wing regions, that have large peasant majorities. Thus, Maoism was sort of the de facto organizing ideology for a lot of these young militants, the same way Islamism has a lot of traction among militants in Muslim-majority areas. The problems the Maoists claim to be fighting to resolve are very real, even if their methods are immoral, and perhaps worse, highly ineffective.
(Full disclosure: my family's from West Bengal, right near the border of Nepal)
Reliable information on
Reliable information on maoist insurgency in Chattisgarh is incredibly hard to find. The area is remote, and mainstream reporters don't have the background, interest or patience to get facts straight.
Maosit threat to India is over amplified to circumvent 5th schedule of Indian constitution.
Sean: You have to admit that
Sean: You have to admit that some of them have a point, and have been hunted enough to go underground? Some of the Indian maoists have just cause, to put it that way. I have to go to my booklocker to find the examples, but there is a lot of history there. Lots of massacres.
They should hire PR consultants and do non-vioøence, but its not so easy when people beat you to shit when you try to raise your voice, so to say.
Send water
Send water engineers.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/12/india-water-supply-bhopal
"It was a little after 8pm when the water started flowing through the pipe running beneath the dirt streets of Bhopal's Sanjay Nagar slum. After days without a drop of water, the Malviya family were the first to reach the hole they had drilled in the pipe, filling what containers they had as quickly as they could. Within minutes, three of them were dead, hacked to death by angry neighbours who accused them of stealing water."
"In Bhopal, and across much of northern India, a late monsoon and the driest June for 83 years are exacerbating the effects of a widespread drought and setting neighbour against neighbour in a desperate fight for survival."
Drought, crop losses bring wolf to the door
2009-06-24 12:29 PM
Himalayan News Service
"KATHMANDU: Drought has resulted in decreased national crop production in wheat and barley by 14.5 per cent and 17.3 per cent respectively. Crop losses in many hill and mountain districts of the Mid-western and Far-western regions were more than 50 per cent, said a report."
Tibet drought worst in 30 years: Chinese state media
Jun 20, 2009
"BEIJING (AFP) — A drought in Tibet has intensified into the region's worst in three decades, leaving thousands of hectares parched and killing more than 13,000 head of cattle, China's state media said Saturday."
and some relief:
Monday , Jun 29, 2009 at 0050 hrs New Delhi:
"As pre-monsoon showers lashed the national capital on Sunday, bringing the mercury down by as much as 12 degrees Celsius, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the heat wave conditions prevailing over parts of north Madhya Pradesh, north Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and in isolated pockets of west Uttar Pradesh will abate in the next 48 hours."
Nevertheless, the next wars are likely going to be as much over water as they are over oil and ideology.
And India doesn't need COIN
And India doesn't need COIN manuals. It has plenty of COIN experience(except for the part about delivering development). If you need proof, the state has organised a militia(salwa judum), which employs child soldiers, burns down houses, kills & rapes if tribals refuse to join camps(to isolate insurgents from the population), calls the militia non-violent to control the PR narrative and sends police escort to guide wayward human rights investigators. You can read wikipedia entry of Salwa Judum to understand how effective the media control is. A private militia of local henchman (Mahendra Karma) came to be described as spontaneous tribal uprising against Maoists.
For some pretty pictures
http://www.otherindia.org/dev/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&...
China did/does support insurgencies in India. Mainly in the northeast through Pakistani proxies. Mostly in terms of arms.
And India doesn't need COIN
And India doesn't need COIN manuals. It has plenty of COIN experience(except for the part about delivering development). If you need proof, the state has organised a militia(salwa judum), which employs child soldiers, burns down houses, kills & rapes if tribals refuse to join camps(to isolate insurgents from the population), calls the militia non-violent to control the PR narrative and sends police escort to guide wayward human rights investigators. You can read wikipedia entry of Salwa Judum to understand how effective the media control is. A private militia of local henchman (Mahendra Karma) came to be described as spontaneous tribal uprising against Maoists.
For some pretty pictures
http://www.otherindia.org/dev/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&...
China did/does support insurgencies in India. Mainly in the northeast through Pakistani proxies. Mostly in terms of arms.
I don't agree that the
I don't agree that the Naxalites represent an insurgency in a large section of a country of 1.2 billion people. They are a nuisance. Many Indian tourists regularly travel through Naxalite areas.
The Naxalite "insurgency" exists in small pockets inside India. Remember that AQ linked networks have killed orders of magitude more Indians than Naxalites (20,000 Indian civilians.)
Perhaps the best analogy to the Naxalites would be New Orleans, or New York during the 1980s when there were 10 to 12 violent deaths a day.
Ibn Muqawama, in India "counter insurgency" is not conducted by India's national army or national police, but by each district's (county equivalent) police, and to a lesser degree each provinces police. Any COIN manuals should be sent not to Delhi (where it would do no good), but to district and state police chiefs, civil servants, and elected politicians. I am pretty sure that the elected politicians won't read them (even if they pretend they have for public consumption.)
Very good suggestion. I once
Very good suggestion. I once solved a leadership problem in a company by ordering a bunch of copies of FM 6-22 Army Leadership. Overnight, the unit went from a bunch of dishonest, lazy, incompetent, and poorly trained individuals into a highly competent, hard-working, lethal, effective, well-oiled unit that epitomized the Army Values and was ready to take on any mission, any time, anywhere. There is something magical that happens when you hand someone a book.
Strangely, despite the fact
Strangely, despite the fact that India has faced multiple insurgencies and separatist movements over the past sixty years they don't seem to have institutionalized the lessons of counterinsurgency. Even if we ignore the problem of politicians in many of those areas who are at best ineffective (which is a subjective matter that the Indian government can't change easily), India still made a large blunder in not reinforcing police with better armaments and training in addition to the lack of quick military reinforcements. Irritatingly, most news agencies have been unhelpful when I try to find more information. I found much better data from SATP* and two blogs than on the BBC or Al Jazeera.
@v. I don't remember hearing of any evidence of recent (between the 1990s and today) activity by the Chinese government. Also the Pakistanis seem more interested in militant groups throughout the Kashmir valley than the Naxalites.
@Fnord: The Nepalese Maoists (which is an oversimplification, it's not as though they really like the Chinese) were elected simply because a very large portion of the Nepalese public preferred them. I wouldn't consider Gyanendra mad as much as someone who seriously misread politics in the nation.
*South Asian Terrorism Portal, satp.org
I've found that
I've found that www.NaxaliteRage.com is *the* source for analysis of India's challenges. It's like Global Guerrillas but India focused.
Pretty sure he's got the connections and would be happy to deliver the books.
Shlok Vaidya, the guy behind
Shlok Vaidya, the guy behind Naxalite Rage blog, did field research in India on the Naxalites and their tactics. He also had some of the best real-time analysis of the Mumbai attack ( which he hid on twitter primarily but also on his personal blog)
Afraid you will embolden the
Afraid you will embolden the Maoists and bankrupt the Indians.
Come on kid, in the 70s and
Come on kid, in the 70s and 80s when we (meaning the Indians) finally fixed the Punjab insurgency, a decade long uprising, guerrilla warfare and all, casualties and deaths every week totaling thousands, where in hell was the FM 3-24?? And we fixed it good - ain't nothing but kids playing in the streets of Punjab today.
What did we do?? Why we "first, surrounded it, and then we killed it!" Yeah I know, more Colin than John or even Andy, but overwhelming force works at least some of the time (coupled with patience), maybe even most of the time. The best part is, you don't have to waste time learning some archaic language and culture which make no sense - you just waste them.
We can take care of these maoists and we will - with infinite patience, irresolute will, and an acceptance of however heavy a price we have to pay in casualties (which you white guys can't do). I mean seriously speaking, how many of us can they kill? For every one who dies on our side there are a 1,000 waiting to take their place - on the maoists side, a very small, very finite number, perhaps not even 10. We'll get them eventually, no sweat. Matter of time, and history isn't on their side. We'll win, guaranteed and without the COIN manual and the special guest lectures from David, Eliot, John, Andy and whomever else. Take care...
@Grant: Google: bangladesh
@Grant:
Google: bangladesh ulfa arma
If you look at the histories and links of players involved you will find ISI hands all over. Better still look in Bangladeshi English media.
Most small arms used by insurgents in India are Chinese made. Of course that doesn't prove anything. And Chinese aren't exactly helpful with tracing the links. http://www.morungexpress.com/regional/25627
Its not that ISI doesn't have an interest in supporting Maosists. Its the other way round. Maoists(at least PWG in AP) have rebuffed their feelers. (No link. You will have to take the stmt at face value)
Maoist insurgency is predominantly in remote/unprofitable areas. Given the low police/civilian ratio, Indian govts have let the problem fester, than take it heads on. Insurgencies in strategically important areas (Punjab, Kashmir) have been dealt with an iron hand. The chattisgarh operations have been ramped up, ever since investors(foregin & domestic) have shown interest in that area.
well, its china's bad luck
well, its china's bad luck that retired indian army officers have galvanised local villagers to provide intelligence and root out maoists from many AO's.
U.S.A could benefit from using people to solve their own problems..both in Iraq and Afghanistan, so well from Indian manuals.
More importantly, upgrade FM 3-24 COIN.thats outdated and a simple copy of failure operations.
See US searching an exit strategy in Af-Iran.India does not ever do that.HOOAH!!
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