Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS.
Dear Readers,
Upon returning from Afghanistan, one of the things I have noticed is how quickly support for the war in Afghanistan has diminished in the United States (especially in progressive circles) and the frustrations of those who feel we are prosecuting a war into its ninth year without debating whether or not the war is in U.S. interests.
Traditionally, this blog – like its author – has focused on counterinsurgency operations and tactics without getting involved too much in either policy or strategy. Many critics of this blog – and, indeed, some of the readership – have contended that it is at best irresponsible and at worst immoral to be talking about operations and tactics independent of the larger strategic issues. Point taken.
Today, I am starting an experiment at Abu Muqawama that will hopefully provide an intelligent forum in which readers of this blog can debate the key question concerning the war in Afghanistan. I invite the readers, then, to submit their answers to the following questions:
Is the war in Afghanistan in the interests of the United States and its allies? If so, at what point do the resources we are expending become too high a cost to bear? What are the strategic limitations of U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine and operations? And if the war is not in the interests of the United States and its allies, what are U.S. and allied interests in Central Asia – and how do you propose to secure them?
The only two of the above questions that you must answer are the first and, depending on your answer to the first, the last. (I will publish no "COIN is stupid" or "I hated The Gamble" emails. If you don't like the current direction in which we are heading, you must propose an alternative.) Each day for the next few weeks, I will publish a new and intelligent answer to those questions. Readers are invited to send their submissions to afghanstrategy@gmail.com. Keep in mind, please, that this is a blog. Entries of over 600 words will not be published. (I know that is terribly short. Welcome to my life.) The goal here is to publish a thought-provoking entry each day that gets things going in the comments section.
Again, this blog was never intended to debate the grand strategic and political issues at stake in Iraq and Afghanistan. But if the readers of this blog feel that I have been ducking my responsibility to discuss the political and strategic dimensions of these campaigns, then maybe we, uh, should.
v/r,
Abu Muqawama
All due respect to workload and whatnot, but aren't people crowing for you to answer these questions?
Now that the GWOT is "over", does the whole way we should think about this question have to change? Has Obama now explicitly de-linked our efforts in Afghanistan from efforts to deal with Al-Qaeda and affiliates in places like the Philippines, Indonesia, in Europe, etc?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iHLAaZamQgt35p-txCK8n...
http://washingtonindependent.com/54152/obama-aide-declares-end-to-war-on...
That's a wonderful initiative, and I look forward to reading the entries of all those who take The AbuM Challenge (tm). But with all due respect, shouldn't the first entry be yours?
Andrew
As an old SF soldier with a lot of FID under his belt, this is easy. The answer to your first question is No. This moots the subsequent questions.
Historical analogies aren't perfect, but since history is all we have to bring to bear when judging our current foreign policy, aren't things looking an awful lot like they did when previous empires tanked? Rome's a good analogy. The United States is financially broke at home and grossly overextended militarily abroad; the body politic is suffering cultural chaos and other significant centrifugal pressures such as immigration, the drug trade run by southern barbarians, and Wall Street's callous unfettered capitalism; and what your colleague Sharon Burke is calling "natural security " is a shambles from sea to shining sea. The American West is running out of water, and even the same is beginning to be true of the Southeast. Politically, the very legitimacy of the US government is hanging in the balance with the health care debacle and all the things that the fight over health care reflects. The old term FUBAR can't begin to cover what's wrong here at home, but it most certainly can get worse--maybe FUBAR cubed? We ain't gonna solve these problems in Af'stan. Personally, I doubt we will solve them, but being bogged down in south Asia doesn't help.
The American century is over.
My point is, Bacevich does have a point. That you've acknowledged finally that he does I ascribe to your recent analytical sojourn in Af'stan. Musta been quite a ride. Welcome home.
EMN.
El mestengo negro: While many of the things you say are true, I think that's a bit too gloomy. Brooks and Wohlforth, in World out of Balance (http://www.amazon.com/World-Out-Balance-International-Relations/dp/06911...) lay out a pretty convincing case that the United States isn't going away anytime soon. That being said, the issues you cite DO need to be addressed. . .
The American century is far from over. (To be replaced with...?)
Okay, I'll take a stab:
1. Regrettably, not at the current price (at $65B, five times AFG GDP in US military expenditures alone).
2. The costs are too high when they far surpass sustainability by the host government should the U.S. ever need to turn elsewhere, and/or when they distort the local economy past all recognition. There is no economic value in Afghanistan to ending the war, because then their current economy (and army, and education system) goes away, too.
3. Key limitations are the public's increasing reluctance to lose Western (not just US) life in COIN-type wars, and an inability to define a reliable method of building indigenous COIN forces in a timely and cost-effective fashion to compensate. A related issue is the cost relative to what it costs to conduct an insurgency, with COIN efforts in Afghanistan outspending the insurgency by at least 100-to-1 but still making limited progress (Not a new problem: "Five thousand pounds of education, felled by a ten rupee jezail", as Kipling put it).
4. Reduce efforts in Afghanistan to a limited but sustainable amount, accepting a higher risk of failure in Afghanistan proper. Trust the non-Pashtun majority to defend their own interests in a pinch. Back up with targeted counter-terror activities with the support of local governments. Across South Asia, invest the funds in measures that promise to bring higher security value at less cost: if one accepts the Biddle argument that we're in Afghanistan so we don't have to be in Pakistan, there are other higher-value propositions there, in terms of modernization and economic development but also in support of security sector reforms, for an equivalent investment.
Scott
I live in the West, am now a working ecologist, and have every right to be gloomy, based mostly on the brute facts of "natural security" as I see them on the ground and the refusal of government to deal with them in a rational, sustainable way. Social and economic problems don't seem any better. I can't wait for the North American water wars to start, although I'm old enough that I may not see them in my lifetime. Who knows; the alpine glacial/snowpack sources of the Green/Colorado are rapidly disappearing and current allocations are based upon assumptions of water production that weren't valid even before the allocations were made.
I didn't say the US is going away; Rome is not a perfect analogy, although it's a damn good one, especially the problem of "barbarians" pouring into the country to grab an American dream that's no longer possible, (if it ever was) since there are no more empty places to steal from American Indians. Too many damn people. What happens when population densities reach Old World levels? I do say the US is in irreversible decline from cultural and natural centrifugal forces that Washington cannot control. The New World is now part of the Old World. I'll look at Brooks and Wohlforth, but I doubt any optimism for the future is warranted.
In any case, at best Af'stan is a diversion from these very real problems at home.
EMN
If the American Century isn't over, then why am I learning Spanish?
People need to give up their well-paying jobs as silk-suited beltway bandits and get out to see what's happening elsewhere in the country. We are rapidly depleting or destroying our natural resource base even as demand is increasing. No one's yet proven Malthus wrong.
My best guess is that the 21st century will be the Chinese Century--that is, if the Chinese don't run out of water too.
EMN
I second the Cynic's comment:
"That's a wonderful initiative, and I look forward to reading the entries of all those who take The AbuM Challenge (tm). But with all due respect, shouldn't the first entry be yours?"
With all due respect, the first entry really should be yours...
I'm traveling this weekend, but I will try to send you something Andrew. In the meantime, I think you've asked the wrong questions, or at least asked them in the wrong way. War is a means to an end, and is never an "interest" for any nation unless that nation is called "Oceania." The second problem is that not all war is created equal. There are obviously different methods to wage warfare. You happen to think in this case that a COIN-based war is the only option that will lead to success.
So instead of asking if the war is in our interests, you should ask whether a COIN-based war is the best or only means to defend our national interests/goals/whatever. If I'm able this weekend, I will argue that it is not and that more can be done with less.
Bravo Andrew!
EMN,
I'm not convinced that America is doomed yet, though, as Wedman pointed out, America has plenty of ecological issues that need to be dealt with.
That said, while you clearly say that you don't support the current Afghan campaign, you don't provide a single alternative. You don't support the war? Fine. What exactly do you think we should be doing about the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and extremism in South Asia more generally???
Focusing on pressing problems at home doesn't make problems over seas go away.
"Called Parrando's paradox, the law states that two games guaranteed to make a player lose all his money will generate a winning streak if played alternately."
http://isc.temple.edu/economics/Econ_92/Parrando/012500sci-statistics-pa...
I am counting the days until Ex gives his post saying he has turned to the dark (Bacevich) side. It is like he knows he should, but he has put his whole career in the other camp. I bet this will occur within the next 6-18 months.
@ El mestengo negro
Malthus wasn't proven wrong but at sidestepped when we started to genetically engineer higher crop yields.
@ bw:
Ex is how old? 30 maybe? While he is certainly associated with the counterinsurgency "camp" as a Fellow at CNAS and prominent COIN blogger, I don't think he has staked his career--as you seem to imply--on the successful execution of counterinsurgency doctrine in order to solve America's security challenges. Ex, I think, has been honest on this blog expressing the limitations and deep costs of prosecuting a counterinsurgency campaign. As he wrote at the end of this post, his new "Afghan Strategy" forum is his first dabble in the strategic/political issues underlying the Afghanistan conflict. If he comes to the conclusion in the next 6-18 months or 5 years from now or tomorrow that Bacevich's camp is correct, then so be it. This is a blog and while Ex has developed quite a reputation in his young career, he is merely one voice of many. He's not a national security policy-maker. Does his commentary on this blog influence national security policy-making? I don't know; probably not.
Bottom line--finally--is so what if Ex decides Bacevich is right? So what if he decides that there are limits to American power and that anything we try to do in Afghanistan is outside our limits of power? At least he honestly and publicly came to that conclusion. Remember that the COIN luminaries, most notably Dave Kilcullen, opposed the Iraq war. But they knew America had a moral obligation to fix what what we broke and helped do so. The question, I think, for Afghanistan is not whether it's broke and needs fixed (because it is and can't be) but whether a broken Afghanistan threatens our national security.
Well, as the fall of Rome took around 300 years, we have a little lead time to figure things out.
http://www.amazon.com/How-Rome-Fell-Death-Superpower/dp/0300137192
To make this work better, I suggest that we just tackle the one most important and controlling question first, to wit:
1. What are the U.S. and allied interests in Central Asia and how should we secure them?
Once we answer this question, we can determine how and if the other questions are applicable (or not) and then answer them accordingly.
Matt, I am with you.
AM, I am just a little concerned that at the CNAS conference in June, you politely and respectfully (but firmly) dismissed Bacevich's argument.
After a month in Afghanistan, one of your first posts is on getting some serious thinking as to whether we really have a dog in this fight after all.
Man, was what you saw over there that bad?..
1. What is essential for US national security?
2. What are the U.S. interests in Central Asia?
3. What are allied interests in Central Asia?
What are our interests? Who is us, first of all?
War is generally good for the military supply and armaments business, so an ongoing war in the region is certainly in somebody's interest. Then, the question is, whose interests?
Even if Afghanistan had large deposits of oil, as does Iraq, would that justify a long-term military occupation? There is the 9/11 issue, of course - but isn't that similar to the Mumbai issue? There are those in India who would have used that as justification for a war with Pakistan, just as 9/11 is still seen as a justification for ongoing war in Afghanistan.
Are peaceful and democratic regimes in our interest, globally speaking? Or does it all depend on whether they agree to limit their sovereign powers under the rules laid out by free trade agreements, USAID, the Export-Import Bank, the Overseas Investment Corporation, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank?
Where exactly does "promoting democratic reform" REALLY come in the list of foreign policy priorities?
If you consider our close relationship with the quaintly monarchist state of Saudi Arabia, it's fairly obvious that gaining access to and control over raw materials like oil is a far greater interest than is democracy.
However, since the U.S. public won't agree to an aggressively militaristic foreign policy carried on in the name of securing oil, "promoting democracy" it is.
It's just a matter of good PR - that can accomplish anything - just ask Max Boot:
"Ahmed Wali Karzai has been dogged by allegations, which he denies, of involvement in the country's $3 billion opium trade, while Mahmoud Karzai has been accused of using his brother's influence to build a business empire that has made him one of the country's wealthiest men.
Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a research centre, said: "There's a perception that members of his family are benefiting from his position. It's bad for our counter-insurgency efforts." -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/5991447/Karza...
You see, if we stop talking about the problems and issues, they'll just magically go away - we just have to find the right words... said Goebbels.
A visitor wrote:
"That said, while you clearly say that you don't support the current Afghan campaign, you don't provide a single alternative. You don't support the war? Fine. What exactly do you think we should be doing about the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and extremism in South Asia more generally???"
Sadly, this is exactly the way of thought that has brought the US all the problems.
When I read such comments I am under the impression the vast majority of US inhabitants isn't able to realize there are OTHER ways to coexist with other nations except war and meddling in the affairs of others.
Of course war is sometimes neccessary but as long as US policy makers don't understand that there is NO NEED to "do something" about "extremists", there will be "extremists" for exactly this reason of the US "doing something" or rather forcing something on other nations.
Have you seen a single "Islamist terror attack" on a country that isn't in any war against a Muslim country and isn't interfering in Muslim domestic affairs? Not supporting the Afghan war is already a solution if the US also rethinks its other tactics to secure resources.
By putting up opressive regimes unneccessarily the US is constantly fighting a war against the population of half the middle east. Of course, if the US just stops its Afghan war but continues its other policies there will be another attack coming out of Afghanistan. 9/11 was just a question of time and "where" and "how". You can't support torturing dictatorships for decades and expect to be always an exporter of state terrorism but never get some of it imported.
Wuh? What?! [confused look]. Wuh? [again]
Are you fucking kidding me?!
[RU fing kidding me?!] For twitter
Dude!
You are mentioning Bacevich.
I...
I...,
I don't know what to say. Except. Congratulations.
You are now officially recognized as a real American. Part of Bacevich Nation. It grows every day. I'm crying right now. I'm fucking floored.
----War in Astan as a means to an end --- the end being it is not used as a staging area politically, diplomatically, financially for attacks on the USA and our allies. So yes it's in our interests. In particular with the 100 loose nukes next door.
COIN as the method - well if COIN doesn't work, there's always horrific punitive measures.
It's worth any expenditure of resources to save a city from the fate NY suffered. This is why militaries exist, Hell protection from outside attack are the first and prime reason for government.
Bacevich is great at criticizing from a certain POV - the one where our enemies are absolved of responsibility for their actions, and we are on the hook for everything. Has anyone looked at his solutions? Make NATO, nay indeed the UN work. Bring back the draft (!!! LOL if I saw Congress even debate that!). Make it a better world.
People proposing coexistence -- and that 9/11 was some kind of justified retaliation -- they don't want to coexist. The Qutb brothers didn't want to coexist. They want to destroy. As did their star pupil-- UBL.
"as long as US policy makers don't understand that there is NO NEED to "do something" about "extremists", there will be "extremists" for exactly this reason of the US "doing something" or rather forcing something on other nations."
It is utterly naive to think that if we simply pack up and go home, al-Qaeda would leave us alone. I don't dispute for a second that the heavy handed approach that the Bush administration employed for the past eight years only made things worse; that by employing some softer tools and trying to wean away the majority of Muslims from the extremist camp, we could see real success.
However, there are a number of people in South Asia right now who quite simply want to kill us, and our allies, and any of their own countrymen who do no seek their version of the perfect Islamic Emirate. It is possible that the war in Afghanistan as it is being fought now is not the proper way to confront this threat, but simply leaving the region to its devices and assuming our enemies will adopt a "live and let live" philosophy if only we do is a far more dangerous proposition.
I fail to see the point of our presence in Afghanistan, unless the strategic purpose is to maintain a sizable military and diplomatic footprint in that part of the world. On the other hand I can see any number of reasons for not being there, such as the presence of Christian heretics in the middle of the Muslim world. We went in to capture bin Laden. He moved on, we should too. al-Qaeda is properly an intellingence/police/SF operation, capture or dismantle the operative aspects of the entity, police up the rest. Afghanistan is a state that we could help in a number of ways; eg: training school teachers, engineers, doctors and lawyers in the US and trusting them to carry the word, but there is no evidence that 63 thousand grunts, or a hundred sixty-three thousand grunts, or two hundred sixty-three thousand grunts will turn that country into an area hospitable to us. Iran wants to use our troops as a punching bag and will spend prodigiously on armaments for Pashtun militants, under the guise of the Taliban, to fight against us establishing ourselves there.
Our great ally, Pakistan, doesn't want Afghanistan built up as anything other than and ISI client state, they want to nullify any possibility of Afghanistan allying itself with India and they will spend many billions of our money to ensure no such thing takes place.
If I read the literature clearly, what Karzai wants from us is enough protection and money to enable his faction to rule well into the future, but we must understand his sensitivities and not embarrass either he or his brother. Nor does he want us pulling operations on our own, so other than keeping him alive and well fed, why are we there?
Visitor @ 1:31,
You make a solid argument about why it isn't in our interest to be there. And while I agree that fighting al-Qaeda is ideally an "SF/Intelligence operation," you ignore one crucial detail: fighting al-Qaeda purely through kinetic action usually results in civilian casualties, and always results in America being painted as violent and heavy handed, interested only in killing Muslims. If we go that route, it will alienate people and leave them ripe for Taliban/al-Qaeda recruitment. And certainly no one will try to help US/Afghan forces by providing intel or otherwise supporting anti-extremist measures.
If our experience in Iraq taught us anything, it is that focusing only on "repetitive raiding" against terrorists is a game of whack-a-mole that gets us no where.
Abu Muqawama, I perused through the different proposals in the comment section above. The best "answer" I saw was "Comment by BruceR on August 7, 2009 - 11:38am"
Its a partial answer, so let me also give you a partial answer.
Yes, this war is worth it. If the Afghan people win and are seen to be successful, it will be a huge blow to the global Takfiri movement, and will lead to a substantial reduction in global terrorism over the medium to long run. It will also have salutary affects inside Pakistan by encouraging and heartening Pakistani civil society. If you don't believe me, then consider how the victory of the elected Iraqi government and the ISF has coincided with massive damage to the global popularity of AQ linked networks and Takfiris among the Ummah (global muslim community.) {I will concede that correlation does not causation make, and that this assertion is debatable.}
To summarize, there are three reasons why the risk of global terrorism drops:
1) Global ideological, outlined above
2) Salutary affect on Pakistan, via the long term positive affect on Pakistani civil society and the Pakistani economy; and this is the politically incorrect part . . . giving the international community a capable and motivated partner in the ANSF if military operations inside Pakistan become necessary
3) Reduces the risk of a 9/11 or larger scale terrorist attack on civilians in North America, Europe, Russia, China, India, Shia land (Iran/Iraq), Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Australia:
This has attended benefits in lower risk premiums, lower insurance rates, lower global long run steady state military/law enforcement budgets, more business development/technological innovation, and higher global living standards.
Admittedly, this is an incomplete answer. Helping the Afghans defeat the Taliban Queta Shura, Hekmatyur, Haqqani, and the Punjabi Taliban, is not worth any expense. Therefore, it might be useful to outline different resourcing possibilities, and discuss which of them we should choose.
Lowest cost option:
The international community gives Afghanistan $150 billion in grants over 20 years, conditioned on difficult economic, governance and ANSF reforms and performance metrics. In addition, the international community sends a surge of thousands of civilians to embed in Afghan civilian agencies, even if only in the safer parts of Afghanistan.
ISAF limits itself to only advisers, and special forces. All these forces are embedded into the ANA and ANP, and fights through them. All international PRTs are assigned to ANA units and their battlespace.
This option should be enough to allow the ANSF to hold the North (including Mazar), the West (including Herat), Kabul, Jalalabad, and large pockets of the east, and practice COIN in these areas. Much of the South, including much of Kandahar and Helmand province, would be partially ceded to the enemy. The ANSF and GIRoA will probably be able to recapture all of Afghanistan within 5 to 10 years and win the COIN fight within 15 years. Afghanistan might be able to average 5% per capita GDP real growth over the next 20 years.
Medium cost option:
The international community gives Afghanistan $250 billion in grants over 20 years, conditioned on difficult economic, governance and ANSF reforms and performance metrics. In addition, the international community sends a a large surge of civilians to embed in Afghan civilian agencies.
ISAF fights through the ANA and ANP. 1 ISAF division HQs is super embedded with the ANA ground force HQs. 1 ISAF division HQs is super embedded with the MoI operations command. One ISAF advisory brigade is super embedded with each ANA Corps and the Kabul 111th Division HQs. ISAF advisory brigades are also embedded with ANCOP, the Afghan Border Police, and provincial ANP. Over several years, these advisory brigades are drawn down to advisory battalions. The ISAF force continues to gradually draw down over many years.
Because ISAF and the international community fights through the ANA and ANP, and focuses primarily on increasing their capacity; current operations are deemphasized. The Taliban and their allies are allowed to make advances in the south and in some Eastern pockets. The ANSF focus on COIN, and only gradually expand the ink stain over many years.
The current ISAF surge; what you term "triage" so to speak, becomes a temporary "triage" to temporarily suppress violence and quickly transition all of Afghanistan's battlespace to the ANA. The transition to the super embedded ISAF force should be complete within two years. {Or maybe less, depending on how many resources ISAF is wiling to commit.}
When violence in Afghanistan drops sufficiently, excess ANA units can become "cost plus" paid UN peacekeepers, or NATO QRF in global hotspots. This allows for a gradual long term reduction in the ANA, and provides long term funding to maintain ANA capabilities to insure against the risk that they are required in Afghanistan again.
The target for economic growth for Afghanistan over 20 years is 7% real per capita. This should be enough to phase out all foreign aid to Afghanistan within 20 years.
High cost option:
I'll let you fill this in Exum . . . I tire of typing ;-) I favor the medium cost option, or a hybrid between the medium cost option and the high cost option.
"Comment by Visitor on August 8, 2009 - 2:25am" is me.
"Have you seen a single "Islamist terror attack" on a country that isn't in any war against a Muslim country and isn't interfering in Muslim domestic affairs?"
Kindly shut the fuck up, you mendacious mongoloid. Are you seriously going there? Is your worldview one in which the universally poor, kind Muslims are being terribly oppressed, and have simply no other recourse other than to detonate a car bomb laden with HE into a crowded marketplace? Oh, America really was dipping her dick into the Muslim coffee before 9/11, right? And Spain, oh, Spain, how Spanish soldiers brutalized those Muslims. The Spanish so truly deserved that bombing that specifically targeted noncombatants, just like the ROE of NATO countries specifies we target noncombatants. Oh, and the Bali nightclub bombings. And all the bombings in Thailand. And the other ones in Indonesia.
Yes, the Muslims are to be left alone at all costs, lest we endure another bombing! Sound logic.
"Mendacious mongoloid?" Gotta love that...
Don't forget the bombings in east Africa. And the assassinations in north Africa. Or the bombings in India. Or in Pakistan itself for that matter...
Reconciliation?
http://captaincat.typepad.com/captain_cats_diaries/2009/04/interview-wit...
Will having tens of thousands of extra foreign troops in Afghanistan for years reduce global terrorism? If it does will the cost of the effort cause less damage than the terrorist acts it stops? I think the answer to both is no and it is in our interests both financially and in reducing enemy recruiting to lower our profile asap. The strategic goal should be to prevent Afghanistan from falling to Islamists at minimal cost. This was the goal in 2002 but NATO failed to build the ANSF needed to obviate the eventual need for foreign ground forces.
Our best course of action would be to stop the escalation. Immediately start to thin out unnecessary forces and personnel and increase funding of ANSF (I don't think an large expansion in number is doable or wise: quality is more important than quantity). I suppose you call this the CT model as opposed to the COIN model and I'm happy with that. We are at the point where the "Taliban" can't take over the state and we have achieved our primary goal but are failing to admit it.
http://captaincat.typepad.com/captain_cats_diaries/2009/04/interview-with-a-former-taliban-commander.html
Excerpts from an NGO worker's diary:
April 30, 2009 Interview with a former Taliban commander
I thought you might be interested to read the notes from a meeting I had a couple of weeks ago when I was in Khost province (bordering Pakistan), with a reconciled former Taliban commander (and cousin of one of the most important Taliban commanders operating just across the border in Pakistan today, in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, FATA). He is a Mullah (a religious leader) in Khost province, and belongs to one of the most fearsome, fiesty tribes in Southeastern Afghanistan.
I conducted this interview in the context of a paper I am writing, to obtain perspectives on the topic in question from as many different groups as possible including members from the Soviet-Backed Afghan regime in the 1980s, and former jihadis, many of whom joined ranks with the Taliban in the 1990s.
What follow are some disjointed excerpts from our meeting (and forgive me, but I will blank out certain names / issues), in which Malauwi Faizullah spoke to me very openly. This will give you a small glimpse of how fragmented Afghan society is. Nothing is black and white. Yet neither does this interview give a full or objective account either, and it is not necessarily representative of what the Taliban or insurgents want. They are comments from one man, struggling to understand where his future lies at a particular time in his country's struggle to break free of this mess.
In parts, his comments are deeply sad, and reveal how vulnerable he is, despite his connections; yet this is the story of so many Afghans.
--
“The government is like a tree. It wields fruits. The people are like its fruits. But any government that has no roots in the community is going to dry.
The government has no roots in the community because 95% of the population has a jihadi background. They were fighting for 15-20 years, yet there is no share for the ex-jihadis in this government, even though most of the people in this society are ex-jihadis.
During the Taliban regime, people from the more remote rural areas favoured the Taliban. They had strong Islamic views. The Taliban brought ex-jihadis into their regime. But this government is only made up of Leftists.
There were many mistakes during the Taliban time but there were no uprisings against the Mullahs. What I mean by this is that in Afghan culture, people do not oppose these elements of society, such as Islam, Sharia or Mullahs.
Unfortunately the Afghan Government and the International Community don’t understand Afghan culture or society. If a Mullah says a few verses of the Koran and recites some Hadiths, people respect him. But no one is going to respect an engineer or a doctor who is reciting Hadiths. The government is using these engineers and doctors to lead our society, but they should use Mullahs.
These are the 3 elements fundamental to a functioning Government: military power, political power and the ability to use propaganda effectively.
The government has the first two, but not the third. Only the Ulema (religious scholars) can effectively use propaganda. The government needs to realise this and use them. They need to reach out to the people in Mosques, and students in madrassas. These are the people who can motivate our society.
The International Community doesn’t pay attention to these elements. They don’t understand.
After the intervention of the Coalition Forces in 2001, and the subsequent re-emergence of former Khalqis (faction of the former Communist regime) in positions throughout the security forces, did security improve at all? Was there a general perception among former jihadis that they were being targeted in search / military operations?
MF: 95 % of the population is former jihadi. During the Taliban regime, the jihadis had a lot of power. However when Karzai came to power, the former Leftists re-emerged and were appointed in many government posts. Yes, they target former jihadis, they provide a lot of incorrect information to the Coalition Forces.
[…]
In over 100 government gatherings or inauguration ceremonies that I have attended since I was reconciled and allowed back into the country, I have received threats from the insurgents that I will be kidnapped or killed.
I am under a lot of pressure. This morning, a person came to my house and informed me that there are 2 people on motorbikes who follow me everywhere I go. If I leave the city, they will kill me. I have security guards in my house. Sometimes I feel I should leave this country.
Recently, two of my security guards were killed. They had received so many threats and one day they were killed.
I think there is a common misperception among the International Community and the military that people have a choice about whether to support the insurgents or whether to support the government; and that providing development or other forms of assistance will sway them in favour of the government – but I’m not sure people actually have that choice, certainly not anymore.
The reconciliation process is very important. The Taliban contacted us about this. They are keen to get this process underway, as they are starting to feel the pressure in Pakistan. If this process started, that would be a good thing.
We don’t trust this government though, they haven’t fulfilled their promises. So what do we say to the Taliban when they ask about reconciliation? We don’t have an answer for them.
I believe that people from the Southeast region can play a very important role in this reconciliation process. If we look at the insurgents, most of them are from this region.
I have requested a committee, which would be composed of Ulema and ex-jihadis. [...]
The brother of […]. was apprehended by the […] and sent to […]. When he was released, he went back to Pakistan. I sent people to him to ask about reconciliation, and what he thought about it. He said he was in favour. But he was arrested [….] and is scared to come back. He asked me, “if you are convinced by this present government, if you think we will not be arrested if we come back, then yes this reconciliation is a good idea.” We can easily do this reconciliation.
The Ulema need to be brought into government posts. […]
A number of elders and Ulema have contacts with the Taliban. What the insurgents want to be assured of is that they will not be arrested if they come in for reconciliation. They will keep their distance until they can be sure they will be guaranteed immunity.
In the meantime, the Taliban will continue to demonstrate that this government is illegitimate.”
[The meeting continues for a while, then I tell him to take care, in light of the threats against him.]
“Our lives and deaths are not in our own hands”.
We say goodbye. He extends his hand to shake mine (which is in fact extremely uncharacteristic of a Mullah to do this to a woman)...
I came across the blog from which I excerpted What One Afghan Had To Say in random reading this evening. It presents a point of view which, it would seem, many who comment hear may never have encountered before.
A visitor wrote:
"It is utterly naive to think that if we simply pack up and go home, al-Qaeda would leave us alone."
No. Al Qaeda offered many times a truce with the Americans on the condition the US stops meddling in Muslim affairs. Usama Bin Ladin himself even offered the Americans cheap oil, saying the Muslims couldn't drink it and would sell it anyway.
"by trying to wean away the majority of Muslims from the extremist camp, we could see real success"
Again, the same mistake, the same pattern of thought. You need to understand that the problems of US abroad are CAUSED by the US doing ANYTHING in the (religious) affairs of other people. Imagine the US were a country ruled by an oppressive regime that can exist only because it is sponsored and supported by country X. Country X tells you how to understand Christianity, Country X goes in and does extrajudicial killings of Americans when they pose a threat to X. Wouldn't you want to kill people of X until they stop harrassing you and leave you alone? Did the Irish Republican Army fight "just because they want to slaughter Englishmen"? ...
"However, there are a number of people in South Asia right now who quite simply want to kill us, and our allies, and any of their own countrymen who do no seek their version of the perfect Islamic Emirate."
That's just wrong. You say they want to "simply" kill you. I have never read a single statement or writing of a so called Jihadi scholar who has called for the killing of Americans or other non-muslims for no reason. In my opinion, the mistakes of the US in the middle east go back to the beginning of last century. The US should just have bought oil and ignore the internal affairs of foreign countries. But no, the US had to "secure" it's oil by the worst methods imaginable, and I promise you, all Americans I know, if their country had the same meddling in its internal affairs by foreigners, which the US is currently and since the last decades doing with others, every American would be proud to pick a weapon and kill any of the foreigners as long as they leave the US alone, and many American youths would be proud to steer and explosive laden truck into the Embassy of the Country that brought them all the misfortune if the US had no guided missiles to do the job.
Often I am under the impression Americans have forgotten there was a world before 9/11. It often sounds like there was paradise on earth, everyone loved the US, but then, out of nowhere, the evil satanic Taleban helped destroy the Twin Towers.
A country that threw an atomic bomb on a CITY where only civilians live, in order to stop the enemy from inflicting harm on the US, should know better how good a target "civilians" are if the enemy won't stop harrassing you another way.
I don't think that immigration can in logic be called a centrifugal force. Wouldn't it precisely be emigration that's centrifugal, while immigration is centripetal?
But no doubt I'm biased. My mother and father were born in the County Cork. And while the Southwest may be suffering a drought, we here in the Northeast have been enduring something like the Flood. Don't fret: it will all work out. ("How will it work out?" "I don't know--it's a mystery.") America has been in desperate straights ever since I was a boy, and I was born in 1931. Yet somehow every generation has it better than the one before--and every generation is convinced that the end is nigh. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford
Deus Ex,
Thanks!!
Monsieur,
Prior to 9/11, what was our meddling in their internal affairs? Stopping genocide in Bosnia and Kosovo? Yes, we stopped Iraq from invading and occupying it's neighbors, in particular since we believed there was some reason that Saddam might continue on to Saudi at some point? Guarantees of external security are not meddling in internal affairs. What meddling? Finding the oil and extracting it because the locals are too fucking lazy to do so themselves - by this I mean Saudi?
We should just buy the oil and stay out of their affairs.... uh....that's what we did for over 50 years....
You might want to read "The Islamist" by Ed Husein. He was in for 5 years, saw a murder by fellow Hizb Ut Tahir members in UK, and left. Makes it quite clear there will always be "grievances". And that they are being raised to hate.
"If country X attacked the US and started to tell us how to be Christian....the US would hit them back...."
Which is exactly what happened!!! Jesus Tits!!
Back on thread....
The CPT Cats on what the former Taliban had to say was priceless....we should reach out to the scholars (ulema). And if they want to come in...and will confine their crimes to their own borders, fine. That means no terrorist camps, support, hiding AQ, attacks on US, UK, anywhere...and....no more dope to the worlds kids. Until then, reach out. And recognize they may indeed just be looking for a respite, since they are now getting squeezed from both sides.
Also on thread....AM, and for that matter Dr Bacevich...what is the point of a military that can't (won't) win wars?
"elf loves STFU" wrote:
"Prior to 9/11, what was our meddling in their internal affairs?"
-directly after WW2 the Truman Doctrine and support of Turkeys fight for secularism and against "Islamism"
-President Trumans immediate recognition of Israel not even 15 minutes after its formal creation
-US backing and enforcing of the UN partition plan of Palestine
-installation and support of the Saudi regime that is more than well known for torturing and power abuse
-Removal of Mossadegh in Iran in 1953
-Support of the Shah who many Iranians considered an enemy of the Iranians and an US puppet. Without US support the Shah had neither come to power nor been able to hold his position
-landing of US troops in Lebanon in 1958, slaughtering the Lebanese population in order to protect the installed pro-Western government
-support of Saddam Hussein in the 70s and 80s. It is even said by reliable historic sources that the US embassador to Iraq told Hussein the day before the Kuwait invasion to proceed with his plan and that it was backed by the US.
-landing of US troops in Bairut, Lebanon in 1982, helping a christian militia slaughter several thousand Palestinian refugees
to name just a few, besides the backing of basically any oppressive and torturing regime as long as it is pro-Western.
You made read this one:
http://www.routledgepolitics.com/books/US-Foreign-Policy-in-the-Middle-E...
You know, you can either close the eyes and think the US was "just buying oil and friendly but then the evil guys came to do nothing but hurt poor innocent Americans", or open the eyes and see the corellation between basically any attack against US property (embassy bombings, hostage taking, ...) as a result of US policy.
US Bairut Barracks were bombed because the US interfered AGAIN in domestic agendas of foreign nations.
And tell me, where was the USS Cole bombed? Was the USS Cole bombed where it belongs, on the US coast, or was it on the coast of a foreign country where it doesn't belong?
I wonder what the Americans would do if a Yemeni destroyed (if they had one) was hanging around at NYC coast.
Monsieur,
We are all well aware of America's quite sordid history in the Middle East. I would dare say that, for the most part, US actions of a grievous nature regarding the M.E. ended many, many years ago. What I am guessing Elf was alluding to was the question of what could have properly justified Al Qaeda's attack on the US, when viewed from a scope of around 15 years before 9/11. If you’re a sensible person, you already know the answer to that question.
And guess what, all Western nations support Israel in some sense. It is a recognized nation. There will be no changing that. So please, as I requested earlier, shut the fuck up with your cognitive dissonance and your offensively inept attempts at logic.
And do continue to blame all your governmental woes within the Middle East on foreign meddling. Personal responsibility is so overrated.
Abu Muqawama, forgive me for going off topic.
Monsieur, reasonable people can disagree on how big a threat AQ linked networks are, or how best to combat them. But you are going much further than that; and defending AQ linked networks and their Takfiri extremist allies. So let me yell at you a little. ;-)
Monsieur, are you American? Al Qaeda linked networks might be willing to form a partnership with America against Russia, Shia (including Persians), Afghans, Sufis, Europeans, Indians, Chinese, Indonesians, Thais, Philippinos, Israel and their other enemies. If we make a separate peace with the extemist Takfiris to save our own damn selves to achieve "peace in our time" then shame on us; and deservedly so.
Monsieur, AQ linked networks and the global Takfiri extremist movement is losing almost everywhere. They are the weakest they have been since at least 1996, when OBL and his allies moved to Afghanistan. The vast majority of the Ummah now hate the extremist Takfiris. Even in Pakistan, only 18% now have confidence in OBL. 87% think the Taliban should not use Pakistan as a base to attack Afghanistan. A similar public wave similar to what is going on now has never happened in Pakistan since 1947. Similar waves of public revulsion against Takfiri extremists (they don't deserve the epithet "Jihadis" they so crave for) are taking place in almost every other muslim country.
On the verge of a decisive defeat for the extremists, you want to make a deal with them? This is precisely the kind of mentality that is called "ugly American" around the world. Terrorists can kill hundreds of thousands of civilians; and American arrogant fools like Monsieur will defend them; because they are only killing "DARKIES."
Today the Indonesians foiled an AQ linked plot to assassinate their President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090808/ap_on_re_as/as_indonesia_terror_susp...
The Indonesian police also killed a top AQ linked leader, Noordin Mohammad Top. Monsieur might argue that Pres Yudhoyona was mean to AQ and to Noordin Mohammed Top, and therefore deserved it. In any case, AQ killing hundreds of Indonesian civilians isn't a big deal, because they are Darkies. Remember, only "WESTERNER" civilian lives matter.
Osama Bin Laden's (OBL's) first large terrorist attack that I am familiar with was when he killed hundreds of civilians in Gilgit, Kashmir, in 1988. Yes Monsieur, the Gilgit walis must have deserved it, or why would a good man like OBL want to kill them? They must have betrayed the Ummah (Islamic community.) No doubt they were Apostates, like AQ regards all Shia to be. To the minds of the Monsieur types, the deaths of Kashmiri civilians don't count, because they aren't westerners and because they must have provoked AQ.
No doubt OBL's massacre of thousands of Hazara Shia civilians in Mazar e Sharif in 1998 was only because the Mazaris misbehaved and deserved it. And in any case, the murder of thousands of Mazar e Sharif civilians are none of our business, because they aren't westerners . . . and because they must have provoked AQ.
No doubt Monsieur can come up for a similar justification for why AQ linked networks killing thousands of Thai civilians was "understandable." Thailand must have provoked AQ, In any case, it isn't any of our business because Thais are "DARKIES."
Similarly the AQ videos threatening terrorist attacks against China in the last week are "understandable" because China was mean to AQ and the Ummah. China provoked AQ. How? Monsieur has an answer for that too. Back in the 1990s, according to Michael F. Scheuer's "Through Our Enemies' Eyes'" China complained to America about Osama Bin Laden. China was going after poor old OBL for no good reason. And now AQ wants revenge; simple? See back then, America was ruled by the Monsieurs of the world. America ignored China's requests for help against OBL in the 1990s . . . and basically through our actions communicated . . . OBL is "YOUR problem," not ours. You Chinese must have abused OBL, or he wouldn't be after you." Yes, America use to have a lot of Monsieurs back them. Poeple who didn't give a damn about AQ killing hundreds of thousands of nonWestern civilians . . . after all they were only "DARKIES" and must have provoked AQ.
Sorry to pick on you Monsieur. But you were easy to pick on. Your comments fit the typecast caricature for the typical "Ugly American."
Abu Muqawama, I hope you don't mind all of us bashing Monsieur. ;-)
"-directly after WW2 the Truman Doctrine and support of Turkeys fight for secularism and against "Islamism""
This was a good thing. The Turks liked it. Turks rock! Turkey is a free democracy. If we should any country to be friends with, shouldn't it be Turkey (putting aside some small tension with the Kurds)?
"-President Trumans immediate recognition of Israel not even 15 minutes after its formal creation"
Umm, what nonmuslim countries in the world don't recognize Israel? Pray tell me? In 1948, The Soviets, Yugoslavs and East Germans backed Israel's independents. They sent Israel weapons and helped Israel win the 1948 war against the Arabs. Israel was aligned with the Eastern Block back then.
"-US backing and enforcing of the UN partition plan of Palestine" See above. What large nonmuslim country opposed the UN partition plan back then?"
"-installation and support of the Saudi regime that is more than well known for torturing and power abuse" Are you retarded? I just had to ask that. The House of Al Saud came to power without American help in the early 1920s, and razed many old mosques . . . including Mohammed's mosque. America didn't put the House of Saud in power, nor did the House of Saud require US help to stay in power. The US did help the Saudis avoid invasions from Saddam Hussein, Khomeini, and possibly Nasser. But that isn't the same as backing the House of Saud internally.
"-Removal of Mossadegh in Iran in 1953
-Support of the Shah who many Iranians considered an enemy of the Iranians and an US puppet. Without US support the Shah had neither come to power nor been able to hold his position"
Read up about the actual situation. In 1953 Mossedeq suspended the parliament and assumed emergency powers. Because of this, the top Quom Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs) publicly railed against Mossedeq and backed the Shah. This included Kashani and Khomeini. The clerics implied that Mossedeq was a Soviet communist atheist quisling and turned the Iranian people against Mossedeq. The clerics worked with the Iranian military, Shah, business community, Mi6 and the CIA to remove Mossedeq. It is hard to forsee how Mossedeq could have stayed in power in 1953, because of how unpopular he was. However, America should have stayed neutral. How the Iranians removed Mossedeq wasn't important to us. We shouldn't have listened to the top Shia clerics. The Shah had substantial popular support until 1973. Between 1955 and 1973, Iran was one of the fastest growing economies in the world, growing 10% per year. In 1973, Iran plunged into a depression . . . far deeper than the US great depression of the 1930s. Per capita real income fell by a third. This is the real reason the Shah fell. In 1978, Carter did not back the Shah. Rather, Carter helped Khomeini overthrow the Shah; much as back in 1953 Ike had helped Khomeini overthrow Mossedeq and install the Shah. In my view, backing Khomeini in both coups was a mistake. However, please Monsieur, research some history.
"-landing of US troops in Lebanon in 1958, slaughtering the Lebanese population in order to protect the installed pro-Western government" Are you sure you understand what really happened in 1958? Might want to read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Blue_Bat
"-support of Saddam Hussein in the 70s and 80s. It is even said by reliable historic sources that the US embassador to Iraq told Hussein the day before the Kuwait invasion to proceed with his plan and that it was backed by the US." You really need to take your medications Monsieur. Between 1968 and 1991 Saddam was a close ally of the Soviet Union. Saddam was anti American 1968 to 1980. America "OPPOSED" Saddam Hussein between 1968 and 1980. Some now allege that Carter encouraged Saddam to Invade Iran in 1980 and supported his efforts to do so. But this is more a reflection of a very stupid President Carter than a reflection of America. Your conspiracy that America encouraged Saddam to invade Kuwait is well . . . very imaginative. Question though. Were the Martians in on it too?
"-landing of US troops in Bairut, Lebanon in 1982, helping a christian militia slaughter several thousand Palestinian refugees" Wow! The UN authorized the "Multinational Forces" in 1982 (US, Italian, French, Britain.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_Force_in_Lebanon
The mission of the MNF was to enforce a cease fire between Israel and Lebanon, oversee the withdrawal of the PLO from Lebanon, and to try to end the Lebanese civil war.
"the backing of basically any oppressive and torturing regime as long as it is pro-Western." Really? How about South Africa in the 1980s? How about Serbia in the 1990s? How about a myriad of other examples? The record was not perfect. In the middle east, the US and the whole world for that matter, dealt with harsh dictators. But aside from the middle east and to a far lesser degree some Latin American pockets, this didn't generally happen elsewhere.
"Deus Ex" wrote:
"We are all well aware of America's quite sordid history in the Middle East. I would dare say that, for the most part, US actions of a grievous nature regarding the M.E. ended many, many years ago."
Thats plain wrong. If you open your eyes you can find literally thousands of examples of US meddling in foreign affairs.
No person with a sound mind and some basic knowledge of recent history will deny that there is not a single government in the Middle East which is at least tolerated by the US. This itself wouldn't be much of a meddling BUT if there are candidates the US doesn't like, the US actively attempts to remove the government even if it was democratically elected. See HAMAS as a recent example. Or the US pressure on Musharraf to step back. Or Egyptian elections. Or Jordan. Or $Arab_Country_in_Middle_East.
Then, there's a kid calling itself "anand" seemingly having a strong inferiority complex and sniffing "Takfiris" everywhere like a tiny sniffer police dog, which just wrote the West didn't back the Saudis. This is an extremely ridiculous claim, a brain-fail like rest of the kids mental diarrhoea. Saud conquered the land on command of the British Empire which paid him the money for his army and supplied him with weapons. In the 40s, the Americans took the role of the British. But I assume this is not taught in elementary school.
If you really want to understand the situation I advise you to learn Arabic and travel to at least five countries in the Middle East. After arrival, visit an average residential area (average=poor in most of M.E.) and ask people on the street if they think their government considers it more important to please its US masters than care about the well-being of its own citizens.
Right now the Pakistani army which was created to fight India (which is US allied/supported) is fighting a war against its own citizens on behalf of the US. And don't tell me that if the US really wanted it couldn't militarily force Israel and pursuade Egypt to open the borders to Ghaza, ending the blockade.
Writing "US actions of a grievous nature regarding the M.E. ended many, many years ago" is nothing but a disconnection from reality.
"If you open your eyes you can find literally thousands of examples of US meddling in foreign affairs. " Um. Yes. Interdependence around the world is increasing. As a result everything America does affects everyone else; regardless of whether or not we realize it. Ditto with China, Japan, India, EU and all large countries. What large country does have "literally thousands of examples of" meddling?
"there is not a single government in the Middle East which is at least tolerated by the US." Hmmm. Doing business with countries is backing their regimes? Alright; what large country does not tolerate every single government in the middle east?
"if there are candidates the US doesn't like, the US actively attempts to remove the government even if it was democratically elected. See HAMAS as a recent example. Or the US pressure on Musharraf to step back. Or Egyptian elections. Or Jordan. Or $Arab_Country_in_Middle_East." I don't think so. The Palestinians were free to elect whoever they wanted and endure all the consequences of their decisions, for good or for ill. The Palestinians are free to make their choices, and we are free to make our choices based on their choices. This is how mutual respect between free democracies works. I think the US should have put more pressure on Musharraf regarding freedom and democracy between 2001 and 2006; but in the end the US did. I think the US should put more pressure on the Jordanian and Egyptian dictatorships. But let me ask this question; what country in the world puts pressure on the middle east dictatorships for freedom and democracy?
America did business with the House of Saud (who I oppose.) So did almost every other country on earth. That does not mean that the US helps them with internal security. The Saudis have one of the most atrocious and toughest internal security apparatuses in the world. They hardly need any foreign help. What country in the world is less pro Al Saud than the US? China buys more Saudi oil than the US does; and is Saudi Arabia's largest investor and trading partner. Does this mean that that the House of Al Saud is a Chinese quisling? For that matter, India is one of Saudi Arabia's largest trading and investment partners. Does India back the House of Saud?
"don't tell me that if the US really wanted it couldn't militarily force Israel and pursuade Egypt to open the borders to Ghaza, ending the blockade." Yes America could "interfere" and do that. Is any country in the world other than Iran trying to end the Gaza blockade? Can you name a single country that isn't anti Hamas other than Iran? Why single the US out?
The Pakistani army isn't fighting a war against its own people on America's behalf, or even on the world's behalf. Pakistan is fighting a war with extremists Takfiris for the very survival of their state. Please look up any recent Pakistani poll. Only 18% in the June, 2009, poll had confidence in Osama Bin Laden. 87% of Pakistanis felt that the Taliban shouldn't use Pakistani territory to attack Afghanistan. The Pakistani Army has broad Pakistani public support for its war against the Taliban and the Taliban's allies. It is true that the Pakistani Army and ISI directorate created the Taliban in 1994, and facilitated the creation of Al Qaeda in 1988, to pursue its foreign policy objectives. But a lot has changed since then. These Frankenstein creations have murdered tens of thousands of Pakistani civilians, including thousands of traditional Sunni Deobondi Pakistanis. It isn't just Ismaeli, Shia, Sufi, Bahai, and other minority Pakistanis who have turned sharply against AQ linked networks and the Taliban; so has the Pakistani public more generally. The world needs to seize this opportunity, and help the Pakistani people dismantle all these extremist Takfiri networks.
"We are all well aware of America's quite sordid history in the Middle East. I would dare say that, for the most part, US actions of a grievous nature regarding the M.E. ended many, many years ago." -Deus Ex
Thats plain wrong. If you open your eyes you can find literally thousands of examples of US meddling in foreign affairs.
-Monsieur.
Monsieur, you're being disingenuous. I was talking solely about US "meddling" (of a grievous nature) within the Middle East. I was not referring to the broad topic of "foreign affairs." The onus is now upon you to provide legitimate evidence of US meddling in Middle Eastern affairs in the 15 years before 9/11 (again, since you have proven yourself to be remarkably dimwitted, meddling of a grievous nature.). I do not wish to have my time wasted with conspiracy theories. You may return once you have compiled said list, until then, your presence is not warranted or sought.
And thank you Anand for the thorough debunking of our mutual friend. I did enjoy it. Anand, if I remember correctly you served as an Army officer, yes?
"After arrival, visit an average residential area (average=poor in most of M.E.) and ask people on the street if they think their government considers it more important to please its US masters than care about the well-being of its own citizens." -Monsieur
I could care less if you Arab pussies don't have the balls to sack up and overthrow your oppressive regimes. If popular opinion is that the government isn't serving the people, maybe a little lesson in US history could serve as inspiration. I admit that this last comment of mine is more emotional and far less thought out than the rest I have written, but I grow so tired of hearing Arabs griping and shifting blame. Instead of sacking up and fighting for real freedom, your pussy subconscious realizes that blaming America is the easier, less dangerous route.
Props to both Deus Ex and Anand for saying what had to be said...
Deus Ex, I never served. ;-(
Monsieur, I want to apologize for going so hard on you. Muslims and all foreigners have every right to disagree with what America does or doesn't do. However, the large majority of anti American muslims are horrified by violence against any civilian, and detest AQ linked networks. America becoming popular is unlikely to significantly affect the global Takfiri extremist movement, although its priority targets might shift to other countries and peoples. To repeat, anti-Americanism isn't primarily behind the rise of Takfiri extremists, who mostly murder muslim civilians, including anti American ones.
Perhaps it might be useful to examine what motivates the Takfiri extremists.
The Takfiri extremists don't see themselves as bad people. Rather they see themselves as enforcing God's will on earth by force. They see themselves as establishing global righteousness, as understood and interpreted by them. They are very worried by negative westernized (not western) values seducing and corrupting their young people. They are worried about their young people marrying outside the faith; or marrying Shiites, Sufis, Ismaelis, Bahais, secular sunnis and nonmuslims. They believe in the old aphorism, tell me your company and I'll tell you who you are. Therefore, their strategic objective is to cut off all interactions between the "faithful" and all lesser muslims and nonmuslims. This is why they demand that all multinational companies, global usury financial institutions, modern media, and westernized muslims (such as doctors, nurses, NGO workers, lawyers) leave the ummah. This is why in Afghanistan, muslim NGOs, health clinics, and girls schools are specifically targeted by the Taliban.
Why was NYC hit in 1993 and 2001? Why have financial centers in general been hit? Because the extremists hope to cause a global financial and economic crisis; thereby making it easier for them to attack the "Apostate regimes" that they call the "near enemy." This has been discussed in several OBL speeches. There is also their belief that all usury is immoral and needs to be banned. The attacks on London were aimed in part at the London financial sector. The Indian stock market shut down for a week after the 1993 AQ linked terrorist attack on downtown Mumbai skyscrapers.
Monsier, you seem to want America to make a deal with AQ linked networks, and truth be told many AQ linked networks might be open to a temporary ceasefire; which would delay the war between America and some extremist networks until a later time. America tried your way, Monsieur, and in the 1980s actually backed some extremists against the Soviets. This might have discouraged terrorism against America in the 1980s but ultimately made America and the world less safe. Do you really want to go back to making deals with extremist Takfiri networks?
_____________________________________
Back to the topic of this post, I would be interested in other perspectives on why involvement in the Afghan war is worth it. To emphasize there are many ways to fight the war in Afghanistan. One realistic option was mentioned by: "Comment by M Shannon on August 8, 2009 - 4:13am"
We could consider fighting the war in Afghanistan by withdrawing combat troops, and restricting ourselves to economic and military grants to Afghans, advisers, trainers and special forces. This is what we are in the process of doing in Iraq right now. {In Iraq the ISF has taken full responsibility for internal security from the MNF-I.}
Therefore the question perhaps shouldn't be whether the war as it is currently being waged is worth it; but whether helping the Afghan people, GIRoA and ANSF defeat the Quetta Shura Taliban, Hekmatyur, Haqqani and the Punjabi Taliban is worth it. On this question, I believe the answer is yes. I look forward to reading other nuanced and thoughtful perspectives.
The grant strategic answer has to include energy "independence". Which means a commitment by the US to a program of rapid construction of nuclear power plants. Plant designs for safety and efficiency have improved greatly over the last 30 years. Build them at a rate of 20 a year to replace coal and natural gas power plants as base load electricity generators. (A great stimulus for the economy, by the way.)
Notice the quotes around independence above. This does not directly address oil imports from the Middle East to Europe, China, Japan, or America. But it will reduce the need to import natural gas, a fuel that should only be used for home cooking and heating and as feedstock for the manufacture of things made from petrochemicals. Which we import mostly from places ruled by people who do not like us. As the Europeans import it from Russia.
What about oil? For which we get gas and diesel and feedstock for manufacturing things? I do not know. Possible coal to liquids like the Germans did during World War II. Possibly the hybrids or all electric cars will develop to a point that they are practical for long distance travel.
In the meantime, any Middle East strategy has to have an end game plan. I do not have a complete plan, but I hardly bother listening to anyone who does not start by saying "...build nuclear power plants like crazy. and in the meantime do the following in Afghanistan and greater Arabia..."
Yes, very tangential to all the previous posts. And outside the scope of the original question.
Add your comment