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On Hizballah's Strategy, Part II
September 30, 2009 | Posted by Abu Muqawama - 1:13pm | 4 Comments
Nick Noe
It's important to note - as the Friday Lunch Club folks have pointed out today briefly in response to your post ("Palestine!")- that for Hizbullah, the ongoing conflict with Israel is not just about liberating (or having liberated) Lebanese occupied territory - its also very much about wearing down and (if and when possible) finally eliminating the Jewish state of Israel, on the grounds of religion, morality/justice and long term lebanese security interests (the latter embodied in Hizbullah's continuing exposition of long terms threats vis-a-vis water, future displacement of more Palestinians -after the "peace process" falls through-, third party actors -Bin-Laden et al.- provoking Israel etc.).
In this sense then, I would argue that their strategy has been fairly coherent since the 2000 Israeli pullout and actually fairly successful given the tremendous changes and threats which have arisen for such a relatively small, besieged non-state actor (notably 9/11, Iraq war, 2005 Syrian pullout of Lebanon, 2006 July War, May 2008..). So, your point is right on, but in the sense that "a strategy of exhaustion makes obvious sense" in this wider field beyond Lebanon's actual borders precisely because this strategy is one that Nasrallah firmly believes can hasten the other factors pushing what he sees as Israel's imminent collapse as a Jewish state (outlined in his February 22, 2008 speech below). If anything, with their increasing arsenal/field strength and media efforts/capacity, Hizbullah has, together with Iran, Hamas in Gaza and to a lesser degree Syria, effectuated a (broken) cordon around Israel for constantly threatening, pressuring and exhausting Israel...and sometimes actually fighting fairly effectively - or at least at a high cost to Israel, financially, int. prestige wise (Gaza especially) and sometimes in actual lives and disruption (Lebanon)!
That said, you may just be right to say - "I think Hizballah leaders have misread the nature of the Israeli state" - because Hizbullah may not be strong enough together with its allies and regional/international developments to succeed - but Nasrallah points out quite effectively that the Israelis themselves at many levels are unsure about this....or even agree with key aspects of Nasrallah's arguments! As for your comment that "Continued militancy on the part of Hizballah toward Israel will, I believe, cause serious ruptures within Lebanese society before they ever break the will of the Israeli people or fracture the state" - this may also be true (I would tend to agree with you on this point, but there are a lot of variables and interrelated aspects).... but this is NOT to say that Hizbullah is unclear about either its aims or its strategy.
If you want to include for your readers a very important speech after Mughniyeah was assassinated, a speech by Nasrallah on February 22, 2008 where he laid out some of the reasons why he thinks this strategy is working - well, I think it would be helpful since, as many have pointed out, analyses that don't look at what the actors themselves say are often either wrong or hobbled from the start.
[In the interest of length, I'm putting the excerpt from the Nasrallah speech is in the comments section.]
“As for the elimination of
“As for the elimination of Israel from existence, let the beloved ones who are enemies of Israel and the others who are friends of Israel and are betting on it, listen to what I say: The elimination of Israel from existence is inevitable because this is a historical and divine law from which there is no escape. This is definite. I am talking about the historical course of events in the region. I believe that this historical course will reach its end in the coming few years. This is mandatory and inevitable for subjective and objective reasons. This is not the right time to deliver a lecture. Therefore, I will say these reasons quickly. 1. “Because Israel is an alien entity that cannot continue in the region. This is a subjective reason. 2. “Because Israel's existence does not depend on its intrinsic power but the international will and the international situation which will change within a few years, too. [NOTE - elsewhere Nasrallah has elaborated on this point] 3. “Because the Palestinian people have held out for 60 years, during which they endured what is unbearable and they continue to endure the daily killings, siege, and starvation. Their leaders, cadres, youth, women, and children are killed. Nevertheless, they refuse to surrender or give up Jerusalem or the land. They refuse to be resettled in any land other than the holy land of Palestine. This is not simple. Holding out for 60 years under all these tough, bitter, and painful circumstances in spite of world abandonment of them is one of the factors leading to the elimination of Israel from existence and the absence of a future for it. 4. “Because of the demographic situation in Palestine of 1948 and 1967. The occasion might not be appropriate now to say this but let me say it. I once said in a speech that the Israelis are afraid about their existence even if the Palestinians do not carry arms and do not adopt the strategy of armed resistance, but instead adopt the strategy of marriage and reproduction. Israel will not then continue to exist. 5. “Because of Arab objection. Some Arab countries, headed by Syria, and others throughout the Arab and Islamic world, continue to object. The Zionists know that some rulers may normalize relations with them but our sincere, loyal, faithful, and truthful peoples throughout the Arab and Islamic world cannot forgive the occupation of Jerusalem and Palestine. If some rulers are ready to forgive in order to protect their thrones, our peoples and generations will not forgive the Zionists who perpetrated massacres in Dayr Yasin and Qana. These peoples will keep Israel besieged, alien, and extraneous without having the ability to continue or survive. 6. “Because of the loss of the Israeli political and military leaders. I am responsible for the words I said a few years ago when Sharon came and they began to scare us with him. I said Sharon is the last king of the people of Israel. Israel will no longer have a king. All are dwarfs. When the Winograd commission report was issued, some people considered it an accomplishment that Olmert stayed in power. They considered this failure on the part of the resistance. On the contrary, we are happy that Olmert is staying. “If we are asked to choose between an enemy prime minister who is strong and has a charisma and can improve the Israeli situation, and a prime minister who is helpless, failing, stupid, and foolish, we will choose the second. I officially thank Mr Winograd for not holding Ehud Olmert personally responsible. 7. “Because of the loss of ideology in the Zionist society. This is what Netanyahu spoke about a few years ago when he said the Zionist ideology of the people of Israel has ended and the Zionist plan and ideology have become past history. Take a look at culture in Israel today although the Arabs do not regrettably follow things up. Look at the rate of thefts, crime, drugs, security chaos, social and political disintegration, and internal strife. This is the society which replaced an ideology, for which the first gangs sacrificed, with a different reality. Now its youth refuse to join the army and soldiers in the army refuse to go to death. 8. “Because of the fall of the Israeli Army and its prestige and the fall of its ability to deter, and the decline in the soldiers' confidence in their officers and the officers' confidence in generals, and the decline in the people's confidence in this army and this institution. I am not the one saying this. Read what the Zionists and opinion polls say in Israel. These final results were brought about by the 2000 victory, the escalation of the intifadah in Palestine, the Zionists' failure to confront the brothers in the various Palestinian resistance factions, and the July war. Therefore, I quoted what their founder and expert Ben-Gurion said. He said Israel would collapse after losing the first war. “I am explaining this to the nation so that it will have confidence, hope, and horizon. There was a debate in Israel on whether they were defeated or not in 1973, but there was no such debate about the July war. There was a debate in Lebanon, of course, because there are people in Lebanon who were wagering on Israel to win. When it did not win, they were upset. “There are people in Lebanon who feel ashamed if Lebanon scores victory. Why? It is shameful to have victory in an Arab country because this will embarrass many of our Arab brothers. Therefore, we have to be defeated in order not to embarrass them. There is consensus in Israel that they were defeated and lost. There is consensus that Israel lost to a few thousand fighters in Lebanon. If we apply what Ben-Gurion said, we will find that Israel has started the stage of downfall. When we talk about the July war and the period after July, we cannot ignore the presence of Mughniyah the leader, and Imad Mughniyah the martyr. “This is what I meant when I said the blood of Al-Hajj Imad Mughniyah will lead to the elimination of Israel from existence. This is so because there is a high and large accumulation of blood from Shaykh Ahmad Yasin, Dr Fathi al-Shiqaqi, Al-Sayyid Abbas al-Musawi, Shaykh Raghib, and all those who were killed or fell martyrs as well as those who will be killed or fall martyr for carrying the banner of resistance. They will carry the banner in Lebanon and will not allow it to fall. They will carry it in Palestine and will not allow it to fall even if the whole world falls....I posted a brief outline on
I posted a brief outline on the IRGC strategy (that includes Hezbollah) on the previous post. It is not inconsistent with Noe's observations.
You know, it's kind'a humorous. The United States and NATO have such awful times formulating strategy for their recent wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Iraq strategy (if ever there really was one that was thought out properly) was a debacle. And now, there's recent prolonged attempts at formulating a strategy for Afghanistan- a war that's in its eighth year!
Just incredible the wasted resources that have gone into these mismanaged strategies. Where would these grossly inefficient efforts have led America without crucial Chinese bankrolling? And down the line, where will that bankrolling lead? There's just so little economic consideration to American strategy formulation. Maybe there isn't even any. It's just spend-spend spend! Credit-credit-credit! Keep the short-term political polls up-up-up!
All the while, IRGC strategy (which includes Hezbollah) for ending apartheid rule in the Palestinian territory has been proceeding uninterrupted ever since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. IRGC interests have even turned a profit on their business-related activities inside Iraq and Afghanistan, since the US invasions! Imagine that! Profit!
And poor Andrew, with his eyes squinting ever so intently on the near future, can't see the long term IRGC strategy, involving Hezbollah. Remarkable, especially given your ex-WINEP credentials.
Certain Zionists aren't so clueless. What do you think this current political frenzy on Iran is all about? You think it's simply about nuclear weapons? Wake up, Andrew. The Zionists are well aware of IRGC's intention of ending apartheid rule in the Palestinian territory. They can read a map. And anyone that can read a map, can discern IRGC strategy.
So what are the Zionists' tactics to counter the IRGC strategy? A hyped nuclear threat, the toughest sanctions they can get, and a possible military strike.
Will it work? Well, these Zionist tactics are very near-term. Some might even say they are driven by panic. Even if all these anti-Iran tactics are successfully executed, the IRGC long term strategy (that includes Hezbollah) will persist. They may even backfire, to a degree, providing Iran with certain increases in regional support.
French-European colonial rule in Algeria lasted 160 years. Jewish-European colonial rule in Palestine has lasted 60. Such time frames are relevant to the IRGC (including Hezbollah) strategy.
These type of comments from
These type of comments from Hezbollah half scare me, half amuse me. Do they not think that Israeli is pulling its punches somewhat in terms of targets for humanitarian/international reaction reasons? What do they suppose will happen to southern Lebanon, or for that matter the Palestinians, if the Israelis ever truly get into a position where they believe "it's either them or us - at any cost"? My guess is that it involves lots of artillery.
I interpret Nasrallah's
I interpret Nasrallah's remarks differently. I think he's just hanging on to see what develops. Sometimes this strategy works.
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