Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS.
Eli Lake was asking me the other day whether or not we had been defeating al-Qaeda these past eight years. I replied that I thought we had not been "beating" al-Qaeda, per se, but that we had made fewer mistakes than al-Qaeda has. Our strategic blunders (going to war in Iraq; diverting resources from Afghanistan) were less signficant than theirs (killing more Afghan and Arab Muslims than Americans and other Westerners). I sense that al-Qaeda's "brand" has really suffered internationally, while America's is in recovery (thanks in part, at least, to the election of Obama*). As it turns out, al-Qaeda is apparently now having trouble raising recruits:
Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida is under heavy pressure in its strongholds in Pakistan's remote tribal areas and is finding it difficult to attract recruits or carry out spectacular operations in western countries, according to government and independent experts monitoring the organisation.
Speaking to the Guardian in advance of tomorrow'seighth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, western counter-terrorism officials and specialists in the Muslim world said the organisation faced a crisis that was severely affecting its ability to find, inspire and train willing fighters.
Its activity is increasingly dispersed to "affiliates" or "franchises" in Yemen and North Africa, but the links of local or regional jihadi groups to the centre are tenuous; they enjoy little popular support and successes have been limited.
(In the interest of intellectual honestly, I have to say this article also highlighted the success of drone strikes on terror networks.)
*If you're a Republican and reading this, I am not endorsing Obama and his policies but merely highlighting the obvious: President Bush was not very popular in the Arabic-speaking and greater Islamic worlds. Obama is not wildly popular, but he is certainly much better liked than his predecessor.
I hear "Obama raqm wahid!" quite frequently here in Morocco when people (working class, normally) find out I'm American, and I didn't vote for the socialist man myself. They do seem to like him.
I got elected president and redeemed the popular opinion of America in the Muslim street one time in high school. It was no big deal.
Interesting that you were talking to Eli Lake about this, because the Washington Times did a very similar story to the one you've cited today. (Lake didn't write it.)
Also, on the Obama issue: I didn't vote for him either, but his popularity abroad is unquestionable. Check out the latter half of this story (which admittedly approaches the polling numbers from the angle of Russia policy and its variable impact on public opinion in Europe).
During the closing years of the Bush administration, the trans-Atlantic relationship, including European support for the United States-led NATO military alliance, had reached a low in opinion polls. After Mr. Obama’s first half year in office, he has “nearly reversed the collapse in public support for the United States,” the report says.
About 77 percent of respondents in the European Union and Turkey supported Mr. Obama’s handling of international affairs — a quadrupling of support compared with opinions of the Bush administration.
But in Eastern Europe, more than 60 percent of respondents said they were skeptical about Mr. Obama’s foreign policy, especially regarding Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and the Middle East. And just over half of the respondents in that part of Europe said they saw the United States in a positive light, compared with 63 percent of West Europeans.
The difference among individual European Union countries is even greater. In France, President Obama’s popularity is 77 percentage points higher than President George W. Bush’s rating. Yet in Romania and Poland, Mr. Obama’s popularity over Mr. Bush is just 14 percentage points and 11 percentage points, respectively. Even more striking, only 25 percent of Central and East Europeans said they believed that relations between the United States and Europe had improved under Mr. Obama, compared with 43 percent of West Europeans.
Emphasis mine.
It's pretty striking that we're talking about a 10 to 15 percent increase in popularity even in countries that are considered skeptical of the new president.
Link to the cited report here.
So, and I ask the following iin all sincerity (well, when am I not completely sincere, Abu M'ers?), what is this increased popularity going to *do*? In, like, reality?
*Yeah, so one of my dearest friends, from Naples but living in Milan (sample conversation:
Madhu: So, how is Milan?
Friend: Chilly. It's not Naples!
Madhu: Oh, sorry about that),
is all, 'Yeah for President Obama, we Europeans think so much more highly of him than the last guy!"
I say the same to my dear friend, "so, what's that going to get you?" Okay, I don't say that. She's my friend and it's stupid to bring politics into it, so I didn't, although I did whine about the rim of poor neighborhoods surrounding the fancy-schmancy here in Chicago. Why should I trust that bunch? Ah, why should I trust any of our elected bunch? They are not impressing at the moment, which I include both the last six months and the last eight years, and the years before that, and before that......
Does this mean that CNAS will write another paper which revises their opinions about the drone attacks? Thank God that it was something done by the Bush administration and that Obama is continuing this policy.
You're right Andrew, my nephew is a recent addition to the Marines.
No S***, last night at my son’s baseball game I met an officer from Marine Corps Recruiting Command at Quantico. Officer's goal is already met for the year, Enlisted goal is just about there - early. Officer recruitment is so "robust", newly commissioned 2nd Lt's are being sent home for a month, or two, or three, before they can start TBS (The six-month training course for all new officers).
I am not endorsing Obama and his policies but merely highlighting the obvious: President Bush was not very popular in the Arabic-speaking and greater Islamic worlds. Obama is not wildly popular, but he is certainly much better liked than his predecessor.
My innocent question, as a non-American: are there actually people in America, of the literate kind that tends to visit foreign policy blogs, who think Bush was more popular abroad than Obama? Because if so, Afghanistan would seem to be the least of your problems.
Jim Hoagland wrote that the newly implemented counterinsurgency doctrine in Afghanistan has failed to do what it was supposed to do, hold ground so that Afghan would overcome their sense of intimidation by the Taliban and vote. Care for a rebuttal?
I don't think that I am veering too far off by saying that you are a champion of the new counterinsurgency doctrice that, Hoagland says, is failing. If I am, please explain.
I'm curious about the significance of the President's popularity abroad. In the countries where he is more popular than his predecessor - are those countries where that shift in public opinion will have any impact upon the policies of their governments? I mean, okay, maybe his approval rating is 50% higher in the Palestinian territory. And this will result in... what? More popular in Pakistan, too? Okay. Are we now less concerned that their government will destabilize and/or lose control of a nuke?
@ Alle "Because if so, Afghanistan would seem to be the least of your problems."
Does 'highlighting the obvious' have some "special" meaning where you're from?
I guess you guys missed the deaths of Marines recently due to the "new rules of engagement" They died. Well done there guys!!! All over a fucking couple of fuel trucks...........Now we have no air support till you fucking armchair generals in your offices say it's OK. Go to hell.
Why is it that we as Americans should give a flying rats ass what the euro trash, middle easterner, or any other 3rd world asshole thinks?
fuck them and fuck you. eurotrash syncophant.
I am very proud that so many Americans are willing to volunteer to serve this country, but to be honest it may have more to do with America's economic failures at home than with our military successes abroad. And let me add, I am in no way insulting or questioning those who volunteer just stating the obvious fact that when the economy goes down enlistment goes up.
what role did CNAS play in this ROE?
I say the US did much better in wars where far-left, Soros-funded think tanks like CNAS weren't involved. When scumsucking think tanks and politicians come up with ROE that allow units to be overrun by our enemies, we are a failed nation. A big thank you from Taliban to Soros, Podesta, and Andrew Exum.
Why don't you just cut the bullshit and work directly for the Islamic terrorists? You help them much more than you help the US Marines.
A common phrase uttered at abu muqawama:
I'm no fan of _____ BUT...
A: Hamas B: Hizballah C: Taliban D: Obama
(insert who you don't want people to know you really support)
Maybe if you ever post something supportive of the US military, you can stay true to form and write "I'm no fan of the US military but..."
explain how we are to fight with no air support, and no free fire ability. Explain that andy the dandy?
I doubt that Andy, will ever respond.
My, the visitor function does free the hate, doesn't it. Love the feeling of strength that anonymous animosity brings you folks? Lighten up; apoplexy is your enemy's friend.
Reminds me of all the letters to the editor accusing newspapers of being left-wing if they don't toe an extremist line. The views expressed by my comments obviously are not the views held by the blogmeister. However, by his actions, it appears he values freedom of speech - a tenet I've noticed seems to bother the horse-puckey out of apparatchiks of whatever ideology.
Me, I'm still learning, and continue to value the insight of others who have experience I don't share and knowledgeable different from mine. My conclusions about many issues may be different than others voiced here, but that doesn't reduce my respect for (most of) the people who comment here. (Some I just can't figure out - Elf seems a likable character, despite the fact that I disagree with most of what he says - on occasion, vehemently.)
Visitor 747
But didn't the US pretty much "beat" Alqaeda-in-Iraq? Hasn't it been thoroughly "beating" up on Alq and the Taleban in northern Pakistan since last May ? Weren't the Alq affiliated jihadis in Indonesia and the Phillipines pretty much "beaten"several years ago? Isn't it a fact that local Muslim support for Alq and other terrorist jihadis plummeted dramatically during the Bush and Blair years, which suggests that resolve is more important than popularity when you have to do the hard yards?? Isn't it a fact that Obama is pursuing the same policies as Bush because the US national interests are the same, but is able to put a benign face on it because Bush broke the back of it?
btw - there were and are several fronts on this war, and Iraq will probably be seen eventually as the boldest and the decisive one.
September 11, 2001 in the Eyes of al-Qa'ida "Central"
September 11, 2001 in the Eyes of al-Qa'ida "Central"
You really don't think invading Iraq was a bigger strategic blunder than most every blunder AQ has made? The invasion of Iraq revived AQ, sent the recruits and funds flowing back in.
Comment by Two-Star Voodoo on September 10, 2009 - 5:45pm
"Jim Hoagland wrote that the newly implemented counterinsurgency doctrine in Afghanistan has failed to do what it was supposed to do, hold ground so that Afghan would overcome their sense of intimidation by the Taliban and vote. Care for a rebuttal?"
Who are you talking to ?
If it is the author (1) of this blog (2) on the topic of COIN (3), where most posts relate to Afghanistan (4) there may be a hint or four there that he's probably already written about this. Seriously, have a read. Shit, watch any of the recent videos he's posted here where I doubt any failed to mention this.
Comment by SMG on September 11, 2009 - 3:57am
" Isn't it a fact that Obama is pursuing the same policies as Bush because the US national interests are the same, but is able to put a benign face on it because Bush broke the back of it?"
Yes. But more to the point, he's black and not Bush. Also you forgot Saudi Arabia.
I was wondering what this actually referred to other than talking about things while being black and not Bush....
"After Mr. Obama’s first half year in office.... respondents in the European Union and Turkey supported Mr. Obama’s handling of international affairs"
Of course if you are POTUS and do nothing but play mini-golf this is still you "handling" international affairs.
Meanwhile, more useful than even entertaining the successes -- let alone bothering to argue that any could realistically be attributed to any change in the past 7mo -- would be an examination of the failures in Somalia and Yemen as to what an actual shift in policy should be.
Never mind "Visitor 5-threads of declarative sentences and no arguments".
Though I have to say, Abu M, part of the problem blog-wise of shifting the focus from operative praxis to geopolitical ponderings is that it leaves us all equal as armchair generals who can spout stuff about "american interests" and whatnot without having any proper frame of reference. You might want to set up a second reading list, "the COIN practitioners guide to geopolitics" or some such thing in order to provide some common references. At the moment, its just too much hot air, Bachevich style.
This popularity poll should keep us safe. You must include this variable in the next COIN analysis. Just highlighting the obvious.
@Sanmon - Popularity metric -- that was both original, and hilarious.
AM, it's easy to be popular when most of the world's media and academe are in the tank against your predecessor, and for reasons of our own domestic politics our own Democratic party fanned the flames of hatred to get back into power - then quietly continued the same policies. It's also easier to be less hated if you 1) run around serial apologizing for your countries (existence) and blaming everything on the previous guy, and 2) If when confronted with a challenge you constantly back down. With the exception of a shooting the Somali pirates, I can't think of an occasion he didn't essentially back down.
And he'll fold on Astan, AM. Leaving you among many to be holding the baby, and the blame.
But I'm glad he's popular abroad, cuz he's tanking at home. It's not gonna get better that the dollars about to fall, hard, possibly from it's perch..oh and this paper money bubble of a stock market rally is about to pop. Most of this is the Fed's fault, but he'll get the blame.
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I notice from the comments the literal bane of our existence - ROE - is back.
I concur with the fact that Al Qaeda's brand has suffered in the Muslim world, but I do not think it has much to do with the election of Obama. While Obama's election certainly creates a challenge to AQ's broader appeal, I do not think their recruitment efforts have or will be made any more difficult simply because of Obama. There is no shortage of recruits being thoroughly indoctrinated in Pakistan's madrassa system. AQ has fertile ground and ample time to pick and choose who the best most trusted recruits will be. If terrorist attacks since 9/11 are any indication, more of these operatives are coming from the West (both of South Asian, and Caucasian). Obama and his White House will have ZERO impact on these trends. The bottom line is that AQ has a much more refined ability to get its message out. While security services have undoubtably improved in the last eight years, we are still getting our butts kicked by their dominance in the information arena.
On a side note, I recently read an article by Fouad Ajami in the WSJ. Offers an interesting perspective on the reasons we went to war in Iraq and the Obama's labeling of Iraq as the "unjust" war while Afghanistan is the "just" war. From a purely rhetorical perspective, Obama has painted himself into a box he's not going to be able to get out of easily. It strikes me that he has a very lazes faire (SP???) attitude about both wars, and I'm sure, wishes he did not have to deal with either. I'll be curious to see how he tries to back his way out of the "just war."
As a soldier currently advising many Shia ISF - I can say that GW is popular among many of the Arabs I work with. I personally think that al-Qeada's biggest strategic blunder was hijacking planes on Sept 11, 2001.
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