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On Safe Havens ... and an Afghanistan commentary round-up
Currently watching President Obama speak to the UN General Assembly. Of note to readers of this blog, he reiterated his stance about not allowing al-Qaeda the use of any safe havens from which they can plot attacks. "We will permit no safe-haven," the president said, "for al Qaeda to launch attacks from Afghanistan or any other nation."
I have written on safe havens before, and I'm still not sure if the president realizes the ambition of what he's saying. Are we going into Yemen next? The Horn of Africa? What does this mean for U.S. operations abroad? Will we use commando raids? Drone strikes? Indirect approaches? Again, because I'm not a real strategist and tend to think operationally, when I hear him say stuff like this I wonder how, exactly, we're going to execute the polcy he is articulating. There is a big difference between disrupting al-Qaeda activities in safe havens and denying them the use of safe havens to begin. And -- and here's a bone for all you realists out there -- it's not as if we have unlimited resources to do all this with.
In other news, I apologize for the Afghanistan-centric nature of this blog of late (there are better Afghanistan blogs out there), but here are some quick-hit links to some recent pieces of note:
- Fred writes a typically smart piece in Slate
- Blake interviews Khalilzad
- Laura notes a backlash to the McChrystal report
- Robert crunches some numbers on troops
- Though this blogger was against the AP's decision on the dying Marine, this historical reflection offers a great counterargument
- And finally, Rep. Ike Skelton -- a man always worth listening to on defense issues -- and his letter to the president on Afghanistan and the need for a properly-resourced counterinsurgency strategy.
I was worried your feud with
I was worried your feud with Foust would tear the very fabric of the Afghan blogosphere. Glad to see you guys hugged it out.
Foust and I have feuded and
Foust and I have feuded and will feud again. But I like to think there's a lot of mutual respect there. At the very least, he does a good job of keeping me honest.If only others had the power
If only others had the power to keep Foust honest.
I would like to point out
I would like to point out that in my opinion all terrorist organizations are equaly insane. Hamas, Hizbolla, AlQuida, Taliban, and the rest of those groups alike. Why do you legitimize one over the other (such as Hizbolla)?
If you legitimize one you legitimize all. Their goals are the same, motivations are the same, ETC.
I hate to pimp myself... but
I hate to pimp myself... but hey, what the heck... I have a length blog post on the issue of safe havens up today at: http://www.bernardfinel.com/?p=722.
I am responding to a question posed by commenter Madhu on this very blog, so perhaps you will excuse my violation of netiquette?
The safe haven I'd worry
The safe haven I'd worry about is West Africa, and then the Horn of Africa. I was in Mali earlier this year and you could see the interaction between state dysfunction and salafi popularity on the streets of the capital. In the north, I heard quite a few Tuaregs talk about AQ arms landing in the ports of Guinea Bissau and then being shipped up to AQIM stomping grounds in the northeast. (The Tuaregs were getting paid to transport the arms). Horn of Africa: Well, isn't that were you go if you have a couple of mates, a bit of cash and fancy your chances of carving yourself a little kingdom."...when I hear [Obama] say
"...when I hear [Obama] say stuff like this I wonder how, exactly, we're going to execute the polcy he is articulating..."
I think a quick examination of his policy declarations since his campaign would tell you that's not going to be an issue.
It'd be what, number 487 on the list of enormous policy shifts he's talked about because they sound good but has absolutely no chance of, nor commitment to implementing.
Londonstani-And you didn't
Londonstani-And you didn't put all this in a blog post for us?
Steve
@ Bernard Finel: wow, thanks
@ Bernard Finel: wow, thanks for responding to one of my questions.
@ Londonstani: Great. That is just depressing. I liked it better when I never paid attention to any of this stuff. Ignorant but happy. Srsly, does all the 'paying attention' to the problems of the world make you all mental, or what? Explains D.C., I guess.
*Old Blue had some good advice at Afghanquest: basically, chill out a little, everybody.
You might consider adding
You might consider adding Ann Jones latest contribution to Tom Dispatch -- her observations on training Afghan security forces -- to your roundup. . .
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175116/ann_jones_us_or_them_in_afghanistan_
. . .Joseph Heller fans will appreciate the (uninteded) ironies.
I've said this elsewhere,
I've said this elsewhere, but safe havens is the school lunches argument of the Afghanistan war. It's rhetoric that has very little meaning in reality. Coincidentally, I'm sure, it's rhetoric entirely inherited from the Bush administration.
Comment by Dwight Whayle on
Comment by Dwight Whayle on September 23, 2009 - 10:33pm
"You might consider adding Ann Jones latest contribution to Tom Dispatch -- her observations on training Afghan security forces -- to your roundup"
I addressed that nonsense here....
http://www.juancole.com/2009/09/mcchrystal-warns-of-failure-in.html#c373...
I saw 4 US troops in a photo on the NYT. I saw about 8 walking around a FOB in a news report a couple of nights ago. I don't know what all these people are questioning whether we could afford to send more for there if there's less than 20 right now. Feel like telling other people to come visit my logic ?
". . .Joseph Heller fans
". . .Joseph Heller fans will appreciate the (uninteded) ironies."
Not to mention getting their hands on some top-notch fiction writing.
Kilo, Ann Jones met some ANP
Kilo, Ann Jones met some ANP and heard a bunch of stories from them. She has also known one soldier for many years who repeated the warrior training 10 week class a couple times. Voila, she is an expert on the ANA. Don't worry, I don't get that either. There is little real discussion of the ANA anywhere, except on blogs like this one; Ann Jones is one of the few articles published on the ANA by the global media; as a result it is widely believed. Perhaps one solution is to encourage greater discussion of the NDS, ANA and ANP?
Let me start. Has anyone heard anything negative about the NDS, ANCOP and the 203rd ANA Corps? They seem like substantial success stories to me.
On the flip side, why is 207th ANA Corps performing so poorly?
"There is little real
"There is little real discussion of the ANA anywhere, except on blogs like this one"
Well, not much here that's risen to any level of merit. Discussion isn't the issue though, it's (a) actual assessments existing and (b) transparent disclosure of those. However the absence of actual evaluation doesn't excuse this, which I can't in good faith even call "guessing", as it's primary concern is to declare a purely invented and favoured assessment.
I don't really know what the issue is. Whether it's a matter of someone with integrity between the POTUS and the command in theatre demanding this or that it does exist, but evaluating the integrity of the data is not possible.
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