Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS.
Newspapers reported today that the F8 incident reported with much ensuing panic yesterday was a hoax. However, it wasn't long before the small sense of relief was overshadowed by new episodes of death and destruction.
A mine exploded under a bus in Mohmand killing 15, mainly women and children, various news outlets reported. It seems this time the civilians might not actually have been the target since the road where the blast happened is used frequently by the miiitary. Although of course, you have to wonder if the people who put the mine there decided a few dead civilians was a risk worth taking.
A suspected car bomb in Peshawar wounded 13, nine of whom are in critical condition. While a suicide bomber attacked a military aircraft servicing facility 75 km from Islamabad killing seven.
The capital itself got a respite, but the streets were pretty quiet. Londonstani toured the various markets on his daily chores and found most of the shops to himself. The downside was that there were no cabs.
While the blow back is clear for everyone to see, no one really knows what is happening in the tribal areas themselves. Reporter friends have been up to Dera Ismail Khan and Peshawar to talk to those fleeing the conflict zones but their stories of having to flee after government forces suggested (in no uncertain terms) that it's time to leave did little to shed light on how the fighting is actually unfolding. Of course, the government and the militants claim to be heaping humiliation on each other in buckets, but its anyone's guess what's actually happening.
The latest government numbers put Taliban deaths at 142 and their own losses at 20. The latest figures from aid agencies suggest 120,000 have been made homeless.
But while the military operation and the attacks away from the frontline are getting the headlines, it seems to Londonstani that the predictable see-saw of Pakistani politics is thinking of double backing on itself once more. There are whisperings amongst the English speaking super elite, the taxi drivers and the very low level government clerks that maybe it's time the army took over once more.
From Londonstani's point of view this is just wierd. It wasn't that long ago that everyone seemed to be on the streets shouting death to Musharraf. Now, I've heard a possible Pakistani future leader say, "You know if Musharraf hadn't made a couple of small mistakes towards the end, he would have been remembered as the man who saved the nation."
At the time of the most stringent anti Musharraf hysteria, Londonstani remembers sitting in a newsroom asking a visiting Pakistani analyst, "But who's gonna replace Musharraf? You think the same people who ran the country into the ground before him are suddenly going to start amending their ways?"
The analyst said he thought they had learnt their lesson. But it seemed much like bringing Afghan warlords back to Kabul. And, the fear is that the results could actually be much the same.
The complaints of the upper sections of society is that this present government is completely venal, corrupt and incompetent. "'What's new?" Someone with a sense of history might ask, but it seems that this government is setting new records at such a pace that the whole "only the army can run Pakistan" has come back into popular usage a year and a bit after they were last in power (it normally takes a few years). But of course, there is a conspiracy that this is actually what they have been planning all along anyway.
It would be pretty depressing if it wasn't for the fact that there does seem to be a growing sense among young upper and middle class Pakistanis that its time to step the plate. That the old paradigm is very, very broken and their only other option - going abroad - is not really all that appealing. After all, how many financial professionals with qualifications from their country's best institutes actually want to drive cabs?
Londonstani is going to be off on a world wind tour of Pakistan over the next few days.. so hopefully more on what people are thinking behind the scenes.
What about all those polls showing mood swing against militants. Is the polling missing some nuance/ Do the elite live in a different mind space. Any light on what the hoi polloi are thinking would be helpful.
Ahmed Rashid: The Pakistan Army's Political Gamble
Ahmed Rashid: The Pakistan Army's Political Gamble
Sorry about the accidental double comment. Luckily it was a link to the brilliant Ahmed Rashid who deserves mucho linko. While looking at the Dawn link above I saw a piece about the 'Waziristan musician [who] prays for Taliban defeat'
‘The Taliban cannot be our friends,’ said Akbar, as he recalls incidents of flogging and beheading of those who fell foul of the extremists. Akbar looked visibly distressed as he spoke about his ordeal which started two years ago when a Taliban delegation turned up at his home, following a tip-off from one of his neighbours. Not knowing they were from the Taliban, he served them tea, played his rubab and sang for them in his living room. And then they grabbed the instrument and smashed it. ‘It was a warning from them. I was forced to stop playing an instrument that I started playing in 1981,’ he said.
Islamic extremists have blown up hundreds of music and DVD shops in the troubled North West Frontier Province (NWFP), calling the practices against the tenets of Islam. Shop owners were forced to display the pro-Taliban material which ranged from tirades against the United States to gruesome clips of beheadings and bomb attacks. Tears rolled down Akbar’s cheeks as he talked about one of his very close friends Ahmad Shah, whom he says was executed by Taliban for playing the flute. ‘They slit his throat because he ignored their warning,’ said Akbar.
Sorry for your troubles.
I.Suggest.You.Don't.Give.Your.Frankenstein.A.Bride.
No matter what he says, it will be your fiance.
Of course you already have a frozen wasteland at the top of the world to pursue him to...
You know, when I saw the title of the post, I thought oh great. They put a bomb in a See Saw. I was in Arakia 2006, so you can understand why I would think that.
Uh, good luck.
Oh, maybe this guy can help....I found him on facebook..
http://www.facebook.com/generalfonseka
He's got some experience in these matters.
Mind you...I think...his CNAS equivalent is already dropped by, oh so the news reported.
Based purely on public information about the terrain, the military operation and what we know of the insurgents, plus what the refugees are saying: the army has advanced a short distance into the Islamic emirate. They captured and then lost Hakeemullah's home village and have not managed to get it back yet. The taliban are willing to stand and fight in at least some locations and the army is very loath to close and fight hand to hand. The army is shelling and strafing villages and compounds with abandon. Those places are mostly empty, so casualties on all sides are low. My guess is that until now the army has suffered more casualties than the taliban. That is because the individual talib soldiers are better trained and motivated than the army. The army has a huge edge in firepower but that is not enough to dislodge them from where they are prepared to stand and fight. The army's hope is that massive use of artillery and airpower and a general show of force will convince the talibs to melt away rather than stand and fight. The taliban are willing to go along with that in many places, but are not willing to just withdraw from everywhere and allow the army to claim victory. At some point, the army will have to fight up close, at which point casualties will rise dramatically. To avoid that the army is willing to go slow and hope that the good taliban can convince the evil taliban not to be stubborn and to let the army have its way (in return the talibs get to stay alive and concentrate on Afghanistan). But the bad taliban are not willing to follow the script. THEIR hope is that their campaign of terrorism will cause the people of Pakistan to press the army to stop. What I cannot figure out is what is the army's plan if they continue terrorism and DON'T melt away? Taking Waziristan ridge by ridge is not going to be a picnic. MAYBE the army is determined to do that if they have to, but I dont see convincing evidence of that as yet...I look forward to your report....
Londonstani brings the news to life! As I walk and drive the quiet but busy streets of my hometown, I remember your posts.
Omar, I wish you would use paragraphs - narrow minded of me, I know, but it seems the older I get the more crotchety I become about any lack of ease, especially when what it affects is something that compels my attention.
"Civil war" is going to mean much more to me in the future because of you (and this site), Londanstani.
sorry about the paragraphs. I have had that complaint before and should pay more attention. Unfortunately I do have a day job and spellings, capitals and paragraphs have all suffered as a result...
To Omar:
"My guess is that until now the army has suffered more casualties than the taliban. That is because the individual talib soldiers are better trained and motivated than the army".
Do I really detect a case of "Talibmania" here? Come on. Its not action figures we are talking here! Its a forty thousand strong army with an air sqaudran to help. Its not the first time your golden talib soldiers have faced the lumbering Pak army. As we have seen in Swat and Bajour early in the year, the Talibs are motivated but not stupid. They put up a good enough fight to defend entrenched positions and salvage reputation locally, before melting away. It seldom ever gets to fighting "hand to hand".
Clearing an area of the Taliban is not a huge problem for the Pak army. They have done it before and will likely do it again. Its what comes next is the problem. What we all fear is precisely this melting away and not the likelihood of SSG commandos wrestling the chappal wearing Talib, bare hands.
Its the balloon affect I fear. You press the militants in one area and they just squeeze into the next. Its instructive, todays missile strike in Damadola, Bajour ( which the army is denying was a missile strike) apparently killed militants from Swat and Dir who had been taking R and R in Bajour, along with some other Bajouri TTp fighters.
To Londonstani:
Please do not listen to "possible Pakistani future leader"s. He or she will only remain a 'possibility' till the day some one from the GHQ chooses to palce a hand of patronage on their precious heads. And than doors will open. And if they are good they will one day get to dine with Holbrooke and even senator Kerry, who seriously want to know what the average Pakistani is thinking.
Its an illusion that the military is ever out of power in Pakistan. The cylical difference is whether they are actually running the government or not. In the short term it is unwise for any pragmatic civil/political government to try to rock the boat with the mili. without risking complete destabilization. Three consequetive election cycles down and the situation can be markedly different. A slow strengthening of civil institutions is a far better option than trying to assert total civil control specially in areas where the mili. has enjoyed unchecked monopoly. Turkey is an example. it has its problems and anaomolies, but is instructive for the Pak situation
@Islo Elite
"Please do not listen to "possible Pakistani future leader"s. He or she will only remain a 'possibility' till the day some one from the GHQ chooses to palce a hand of patronage on their precious heads"
Thanks for confirming my suspicions. I had the same take on Iran.
Hell I have the same view on our own "elites". The difference is we have our legions of pissed off dispossessed Joe Working classes led by ...us...with our MILF Huntress in the vanguard. Notice I said "vanguard".
Some of us have learned the wisdom of the leaderless organization.
American politics getting very interesting again. You need entertainment? Watch the 2010 elections....
We may for the first time in decades be coming awake and taking back our nation. And save the Republic.
Elf,
General Fonseka is on Facebook! Perhaps someone should forge a birth certificate for him, so he can run in 2012. Or maybe he could be governor of California. There are certainly parts of Oakland that could use to get it Fonseka style.
I will at once be friending General Fonseka. If enough of us do likewise, all this can be made to happen. Pass it on.
I really hope someone's politely asked the Ceylonese if they want to give us a hand in Astan. Sometimes, it's just time to step aside and let the big dog eat. Besides, there must be some kind of legendary score to settle! And frankly, it would be just awesome to see a bunch of Buddhists kick ass and take names in North Pashtoonistan. Refreshing for everyone, n'est ce pas?
Off topic, but I found an article about the influence of quantitative/analytical military historians on current U.S. COIN doctrine on the front page of the New York Times website. Thought I'd drop a link for those who don't read it regularly.
Henry V’s Greatest Victory Is Besieged by Academia. New York Times. Appeared in print page A8, October 23rd 2009.
Just to Friend Sarath Fonseka!!
@Moldbug - score to settle?? Hmmmm.......I think maybe the attack on the Cricket Team.
Like most of the Sassanach former colonies the Ceylonese take their proper British Education (uh -that's pre-Labour), proper dress and most especially Cricket most seriously.
AM had a reservation about more criticism of the Biden Plan for Astan until he had more details.
Thanks to the fantastic reporting of Nibras Kazimi, we have a leaked copy of the meetings minutes.
Nobody messes with Joe
"Biden saying at the meetings:
“We don’t need more troops in Afghanistan. General McCrystal is a fool. There’s nothing in his report about building a Death Star. Gentlemen, Hillary, we need to built a Death Star. That is the only way we shall be able to zap Al-Qaeda with an intergalactic laser. We should also ask Congress to allocate funds in the next fiscal year for a Drone Army. I put myself forward as the prototype for the clones, what with my awesome pectorals and head full of hair, I am the Warrior Knight personified.
“Otherwise, we must ambush the Taliban. Turn the tables on them. We shall wait for them to wade through a stream, and then, when they least expect it, we’ll drop a toaster in the water, with a really long extension cord, from one of our satellites. Zap, zap, bzzzzzztttt. No more Taliban. I am not wedded to this plan; I may contemplate exchanging an AM/FM clock radio for the toaster. Or a hairdryer. I own a hair-dryer that you can have. I have many hairdryers because I have a lot of hair. On my head. Here, look. Don’t touch.
“The CIA must recruit handsome pigeons. Otherwise, we can recruit ordinary looking pigeons and give them expensive plastic surgery treatments, feather-implants and what not. These pigeons will be trained to intercept and seduce the female carrier pigeons that work for Al-Qaeda. Once in the love claws of our feathery boys, they’ll lead them on and then break their little pigeon hearts. Al-Qaeda’s pigeons will be forlorn and crestfallen. That’s when we get all Manchurian Candidate on their tails. We’ll program them to lay Hellfire eggs, right inside the cavernous lairs of the terrorists.
“Afghanistan must be partitioned along elevational lines. High altitude Afghans cannot get along with low altitude Afghans, not with the valley people hogging all the oxygen. I propose three regions for the country: below sea-level to 2000 feet, 2000 feet to 4000 feet, and 4000 feet and above. We’ll build giant fans in the valleys, pointed upwards, to ensure proper circulation of oxygen to the mountaintops. Equitable distribution of oxygen will give the various segments of the multi-elevated Afghan people room to breathe. “But what about transportation for the ‘4000 & Abovers’ demographic?” you say. I have one word for you: circus acrobats. Those high wire performers can carry several 4000 & Abovers on their shoulders as they move from one mountaintop to another. I can anticipate your next thought: yes, we need to fund and train a Circus Corps, alongside our other military formations. Which brings up another point, do our intelligence services have enough highly experienced mimes in their ranks?
“We must reassure the American public. How about a headline: “White House: U.S. Will Not Pull Out of Afghanistan.” Get the Associated Press on the line. We should also add that U.S. troops will remain in Wyoming. And that rabbits will continue to be fluffy. Wait. Is there such a thing as carrier rabbits? Could Al-Qaeda be using rabbits instead of pigeons? Just to be on the safe side, get the CIA to breed extra-fluffy rabbits.
“I know how to fix this Iran pickle. We will give them nuclear weapons. That way they won’t go sneaking behind our backs, enriching uranium, and breaking the law. Once they have them, then they’ll get bored, and quickly get back to lighting kittens on fire. Oooh, those incorrigible little rascals!
“I shall challenge Putin to a bout of wrestling. We’ll get all oiled up, in the Turkish fashion. I shall establish my alpha-maleness. I am sure I will win. I have more hair than Putin. On top. Don’t touch."
It is at this point at the meeting when President Obama looks up and asks, "Muffins. Everyone likes muffins. I certainly do. How about a strategy of 'muffin engagement'? Would Chavez say no to a muffin? With colorful sprinkles?"
After all they'd heard, everyone in the room agrees that the president's plan is brilliant. Following an initial wave of disbelief, Hillary will shake her head, shrug her shoulders, and say, "Fuck it. 'Muffin Engagement' you said? Sure Mr. President, I'll get my Assistant Secretary for Baked Goods on it right away," grumbling under her breath, "It's not my f-ing presidency." Secretary Gates leans in and whispers to her, "Don't forget the sprinkles."
"Afghanistan must be partitioned along elevational lines. High altitude Afghans cannot get along with low altitude Afghans, not with the valley people hogging all the oxygen."
Jesus Christ, err...Sheik Issa!! CNAS, get to work on this right away.
Bush had the answer staring right at him. 8 wasted years.
"Londonstani is going to be off on a world wind tour of Pakistan . . ."
Um, I believe we meant to say "whirl-wind tour"? Yes? I hope so . . .
Afghan Taliban have released some messages about the disputed elections.
Taliban Statements on Elections
Any news on how the Pak government has eased up on restrictions to harass the ahmadhiya muslims? My mother who returned yesterday reported new laws concerning this...
Fnord, glad Um Fnord (or Mata Fnord) is back safe in Scandinavia. Glad the gov't might ease up on restrictions on Ahmadhiya muslims.
If you don't mind my asking you a question, how committed do you think the Pakistani Army really is to fight the Taliban?
What's ahmadhiya's position on violence, jihad, takfir etc?
Can't find that answer (just hearing this term so thanks for edu). No I'm not being lazy, but BFF Google takes me either to schools of same name, facebook or Christian refutations of same.
Still good edu. I had noticed the Indian Muslims take a less ....er...traditional ....more rational approach to things, for instance when you start to dig a little into Sharia Compliant Banking...cough... (!!!!!) ok now ...you see the Indians are the brainstorm behind it. Also some of the more convincing (and to me heartening) arguments against Takfir.
At first I thought it was because they're such industrious little buggers (no offense).
I will go out on a limb and posit a proper British education had something to do with it (pre-Labour).
To Fnord:
Have not heard anything about any changes in laws concerning the Ahmediya community. If there is a change it has not been publicised much. The Ahmediya were declared non muslim in Pakistan and there are restrictions on them identifying them selves as muslims.
To Elf:
There is no dearth of fundoos within the Indian muslim community. There is a strong deoband tradition alive and kicking in India. I think their being less traditional ( if you say so) has more to do with pragmatism than ingrained rationalism. They are a minority in a majority Hindu country.
Your 'proper british education' I am afraid has less do do with it. The proper british education, by the way ,is not doing much to enlighten either the muslims in Britian or others on the bottom rung.
Someone needs to start tracking CTC's thread on the Ban in Bangaldesh on Hizb Ut Tahir....they've been warning for months that they need to be banned in the USA. B4 they can be so wormed in that they can't be got out.
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2009/10/the_ban_on_hizb_ut-tahrir_in_b.p...
Please check "freedom of religion" platitudes in the Platitude checkroom .... bring some better arguments.
Islo,
Thanks for the info. I am getting educated. (er..fundoos?).
Now what do you mean by Deobandi (I mean Wahab or Rational).
"proper british education, by the way ,is not doing much to enlighten either the muslims in Britian or others on the bottom rung."
Well the key word is proper. I also (do note) qualified it with pre-Labour.
I don't know what's proper in UK these days, but the illiteracy rates are not encouraging. Bullshit no discipline PC drivel + the Dole + "pop" culture = Chav. Why study and work and get a job if you can get a check being a thuggish layabout and still get your [insert addiction here] and electronic toys? It works the same way over here BTW.
To Elf:
"Fundoos" ( plural, fundamentalist ) is a popular term of endearment for our local suicide brigade. Although we have done a good job of appropriating the term, we must be generous in acknowledging our debt to the English language for giving us this delightful expression.
Deobandi and the Barailavi are two of the most important Muslim religious revivalist movement in South Asia. Deobandi s' follow the fiqh (tradition of jurisprudence) of Imam Abu Hanifa. The name derives from Deoband, India, where the madrassa Darul Uloom Deoband is situated. Deobandi thought is characterised by a strict adherence to the Sunnah (the tradition of the Prophet Muhammad) and an emphasis on Sharīa (Islamic law).
The University of Deoband was founded by a group of Indian scholars after the British had put a stop to the Islamic revolution in India in 1857 CE. Both the movements in esssence are a response to the western colonialization of the Indian Subcontinent.
The Deobandi's are far more rigid in their rejection of any accomodation with western systems of education as well as social and political modernization, than the Barailavis.
Pakistan's traditional religious establishment was for long dominated by these two schools. However during the 70 s, thanks to Saudi Oil money and along with remittances , we have had large dose of Wahabism added to the mix. Compared to the rabid, austere, bare-bones, dessert dry Wahabi Islam, the Deobandi 's look like benign socratic scholars.
Islo Elite,
Thank you Sir.
Stay safe.
Elf
The next Pakistani cricket team fixtures.
http://www.cricinfo.com/pakvnz2009/content/series/426717.html
"Not knowing they were from the Taliban, he served them tea, played his rubab and sang for them in his living room. And then they grabbed the instrument and smashed it."
There's even a video of this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9JYq-mXprw
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