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Pakistan Dispatch - How do lose trust and alienate people 101
You're western European diplomatic staff in a country with a security problem, and the people kinda suspect that you and your ilk are to blame for it. However, the top priority for your and your international partners is winning hearts and minds and thereby defusing the security problem so people inside the country and abroad can go about without getting blown up. So what do you do?... Yep, drive around with a car full of illegal weapons.
From the Daily News; "ISLAMABAD - City police on Tuesday held two diplomats of Netherlands’ Embassy and recovered unlicensed arms and ammunition from their vehicle."
And then what do you do? Ask your American friends - who everyone thinks are out to destroy the country, but who are going to spend loads of scarce cash to try and change that view - to come bail you out of jail.
"The diplomats were later released, besides (ie. with) their weapons, on the intervention of top diplomatic officials from Netherlands and the US Embassy, sources told The Nation."
Just what you need when Pakistanis are debating whether signing a civilian aid deal will actually sell the country to an estwhile American ally who can't really be trusted.
Londonstani is not in a position to vouch for the reporting (when can you ever really do that unless you've written it yourself) but these seem to be the generally agreed details of the case. Various outlets differ slightly in details. The News, for example, says the weapons belonged to the Americans anyway.
"On search, police recovered sophisticated weapons including four hand grenades including two smoke equipments and two flash bombs, two handguns, four magazines and six bullet-proof vests from their vehicle. This arms and ammunition reportedly belonged to the US embassy and was being transported to the US Embassy by the Dutch, the sources said."
This sort of skullduggery - as it was described by a Pakistani friend - is not new. Apparently, these sorts of strange events have a habit of happening quite a lot in Pakistan and prove the prejudgement many people hold that the Americans, British, Israelis, Indians (and now Dutch) are secretly working to destablise the country. It's also a classic example of the kind of event that feeds into an understanding held by your regular person while outside observers are unlikely to hear about it. This event is front page news in every Pakistani newspaper I've read today (English and Urdu), while it's nowhere to be seen on the websites of the BBC, New York Times, USAToday or CNN. On a google search, I can only see the story coming up in Pakistani outlets.
It's said that "hearts and minds" is a difficult strategy to pursue because it's difficult for people from one culture to understand how those from another think and feel. Really? Why not just start with something easy like keeping your weapons in your embassy.. or at least getting proper permission to move them around. Failing that, what about some reporting that sheds light on the incidents that make local people go "WTF?!" so we can all get a little closer to being on the same page.
Things NOT to do in Islamabad when you are a diplomat...
Seriously, keep it coming.
Seriously, keep it coming. But while your there, think you could track down a few things a few of my fellow Land O' Lincolners (not the fake ones from Chicago, those of us Central Illinois folks) seemed to have had, ummmm, pilfered?
http://www.pjstar.com/news_state/x576532626/Illinois-National-Guard-sold...
Surprised more isn't made of gear going adrift while transiting through Pakistan. And if someone could help a brother out, I came up empty on finding a clip of John Larroquette aka Capt Stillman, returning with his Italian arm candy to find his EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicle missing. Somehow so appropriate here.... Where the **** is my truck?
cross posting: Islo
cross posting:
Islo elite,
All the posturing about "humiliation" is good for the media, but behind the scenes the adults are talking nuts and bolts. As you yourself say, GHQ thinks they can get America to blink on:
1. Conditionalities that impair army influence in civilian life. I think GHQ may be right and America may blink> they have always loved military dictators and this new found love for civilian rule is only skin deep.
2. "India-specific Jihadis". Again, GHQ may be right. This is India's headache, not America's. The US may blink provided ISI can keep LET from doing something Mumbai style again (always a question mark since the jihadis are not known for sticking to the script).
3. "good taliban". THIS is the sticking point. GHQ wants their people to get a bigger role in Kabul. Maybe they calculate that the US will eventually get out and the good taliban can then take over the rest of the country and no one will care. But firstly, it maybe that even the very nice Mr. Obama is not ready for the entertainments to resume in kabul stadium. Secondly, even if the US agrees (and maybe they will, after all Pax Americana may be very very hard to achieve, will be very costly and will mostly benefit India and China and Iran and even the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan, but not so much the US, which will have to do the heavy lifting) the result will not be a peaceful Afghanistan run by our old friends, but rather a new civil war, with Indian, Pakistani, Iranian and Russian proxies fighting it out for the next ten years.
Anyway, I agree that the US has not been good with the PR side of things. but I disagree about that being the crucial issue. The crucial issues are elsewhere. This is mostly psyops.
Is it possible that the
Is it possible that the "diplomatic staff" actually had a security or intelligence function?
Are the weapons and ammo held by the CIA in Islamabad licensed?
This is not the first time.
This is not the first time. It's the third or fourth instance of diplomats and contractors being stopped with weapons in their cars. In all such previous instances US nationals were involved.
"This event is front page news in every Pakistani newspaper I've read today (English and Urdu), while it's nowhere to be seen on the websites of the BBC, New York Times, USAToday or CNN". Very true! Unless it is to do with al Qaeda, taliban, militancy or terrorism, real time popular perceptions of Pakistani's and events impacting those perceptions elicit little interest in the US media and analysts.
Past few weeks Islamabad has been in the grip of mass hysteria regarding the growing presence of US private contractors and their activities. Last week saw arrest of the head of a local security agency contracted by the US embassy to provide securty services. A huge cache of sophisticated weapons were recovered which carried no valid license from the intereior ministry or the Pak.Gov. No satisfactory attempt has been made to calm the public apprehensions. A few terse remarks by the embassy spokesman has not succeeded in clearing the mistrust. Nobody trusts the embassy staff anyways. The following week this general rancor and unaddressed greivences found redress in collective bashing of the Kerry-Lugar Bill.
If we are to beleive that Pakistan is a critical element in the US game plan in the region, would somebody please explain this baffling lack of interest and general apathy to what people think here. If the State Dept. minders think that their minions in and around the presidency are a capable interface between US interests and the peolple of Pakistan, they have another thing coming.
Cross posting by Visitor:
Cross posting by Visitor: The trouble with most securitised thinking is just this: the nuts and bolts type of stuff always looks more important than sissy pursuits such as PR and public perceptions-until it is too late, as is the case in Afghanistan. "Adults" in the US security establishment and Karzai's kitchen cabinet also talked late into the night, till eight years had flown by, and now general McCrystal has to bend backwards, putting his soldeirs lives at risk, to do PR-hearts and minds. A stitch in time, visitor!
"good taliban". THIS is the sticking point. GHQ wants their people to get a bigger role in Kabul. Maybe they calculate that the US will eventually get out and the good taliban can then take over the rest of the country and no one will care".
Ah! I think its Leslie Gelb who recently talked about the mock choice. Surge or withdrawl. There are middle grounds and I dont think the GHQ is seriously visualizing scenarios where the US forces up and leave, in the short term at least. Some accomodation with the taliban is certainly possible whereby a power sharing formula with the Tajiks and the Uzbeks can be drafted. This thinking is being reflected in many other quarters besides the GHQ. Pakistan has survived along a destabilized conflict ridden Afghanistan for the past three decades, and will continue to do so. Pakistan is also keen on a long term strong engagement with the US, and genuinely feels that there is a possibility that US can contribute to the longterm stability in the region by developing a workable relationship with all strong political forces in the region and Afghanistan-which includes the Taliban.
Intelligence, security or
Intelligence, security or diplomats.. you don't need to be transporting guns around Islamabad. If you are worried about your embassy's security, you probably have no problem getting the Pakistani authorities - who let masses of Afghanistan-bound weapons flow up and down the country - to let you bring them into your compound (like in Cairo for example). Even if there was some sort of red tape related reason to need to sneak them in, do you really need to do it in a Beemer like a Walthamstow gangster?it was an embassy vehicle,
it was an embassy vehicle, and the pakistanis have no right to search those... end of story.
seriously! host governments do not have the right to search embassy stuff! and they had... two pistols, some flashbangs, and some smoke grenades ooooohhh... dear lord what a stupid story...
"it was an embassy vehicle,
"it was an embassy vehicle, and the pakistanis have no right to search those... end of story."
So you would be happy with a lot of iranians and North Koreans running around with handgrenades in Washington, giving money to chosen senators and not bothering to explain what its about. Genius. Admit it, its a "herrenvolk" issue.
Islo Elite: Very good comments all round. Agreed that this focus on Af/Pak is approx 7 years late, question is if its too late. Since you obviously know the scene better than most here, what consequences for Pakistan do you see from a US withdrawal?
PS My mum is going to
PS My mum is going to Islamabad in a week for a wedding. Whats the risk level for invited foreigners, if they are within a family compound? Shes a bit worried, but going "because the terorists cant win", etc.
Well, the fact that they
Well, the fact that they searched it probably means they suspected something was in it and wanted to make a stink. Islo elite: I am not saying PR is not important. But its easy to put the cart before the horse in this case. Pakistan is not all hot and bothered because some enterprising journalist found bad news or because the US embassy does not have a good PR person (they probably dont, but thats not the biggest reason). This is clearly stage-managed. The army is not just waking up to "public opinion", they are manufacturing public opinion. When Kamran Khan, Ahmed Qureshi and Sheikh Rashid all line up and start making a fuss about the same thing, you know where that signal came from. I know this sounds "conspiratorial", but the army can turn this on and off in no time. You underestimate our friends in GHQ.
Anyway, this time they may be calculating correctly in the short term. In the long run, this will be bad for Pakistan because the Army's entire vision of our national interest may be bad for Pakistan. "American dictation" could have saved us from ourselves, but I also realize that is such a silly hope. You are probably right, the Americans lack the finesse to be able to impose Pax Americana at a doable price. But then, so does GHQ. THEIR vision will lead to more war in Afghanistan and eventually, new confrontation with India. Anyway, what do you think will be the short term outcome? lets have a prediction. Will America change the Kerry Lugar bill? Will there be a public rupture with the US? or will nothing really change and this will blow over? What good is analysis without a prediction...
Oh don't be such a wet
Oh don't be such a wet blanket !
"Pakistan is not all hot and
"Pakistan is not all hot and bothered because some enterprising journalist found bad news or because the US embassy does not have a good PR person"
You seem to assume that Pakistan is a country where the normal people are not interested in politics, sir. You forget that the country just regained democracy and toppled a military government. It may be that "Pakistan", as in the people living there, actually are all hot and bothered because they are currently seeing their political leaders getting lots andf lots of money from the Zionists. Wich, like it or not, is the status that most muslims think of Obama after he folded to Nethanyahu and pissed on his own promises in Cairo. You folks dont understand the impact of giving in on the settlement issue, it was a measure of his honesty and he failed.
Fnord, Since I am from
Fnord, Since I am from Pakistan and VERY interested in politics, I find your comment a bit strange. So you think this fuss over the Kerry Lugar bill is because suddenly everyone in Pakistan has realized that Amrika bahadur is pro-zionist? Arent you making the racist assumption that "normal people" in Pakistan are so dumb, they never knew this until the settlement issue turned up 3 days ago?
Give us some credit Fnord. We successfully stole a nuclear bomb when nobody really wanted us to have one. We can manipulate the media a little bit when we want to.
Fnord "it was a measure of
Fnord
"it was a measure of his honesty and he failed"
Yes but he looked good while he spoke in Cairo. Everyone is starting to see he is an empty suit. Jews and Arabs are not happy with him, European leaders are not happy with him. NATO not happy with him. Russia not happy with him. China just wants their money back. Americans still support him so far. He looks good while he votes Present.
Sanmon, give the guy a
Sanmon, give the guy a break. An empty suit is still better than a suit aggressively pursuing the WRONG policy. His mistakes are the mistakes of the beltway establishment, he seems to have no real opinion of his own about these things. It may be more accurate to say that the establishment (not Just the corrupt Democrats, but also the highly corrupt Republicans) has rotted more than most people realized. Oh well, its not the end of the world. It never is. In my less cynical moments, I still have hope that he will do some good things AND more important, that this country is not going to sink. There is still gold in them thar hills...
+1 manufactured anger
+1 manufactured anger against the US
though I will agree it was pretty dumb to be rolling around Islamabad like a gangster, wonder if they had a security alert??
As I know relatively little compared to most people on this site about Pakistan. What do most average people think about the Pakistani government? From all the Pakistani emigrants I have spoken with their opinion of the Pakistani government seems pretty low, and most feel that their local government officials are all corrupt.
Also which parties in Pakistan would benefit from Kerry-Luger from going down in flames???
"What do most average people
"What do most average people think about the Pakistani government?" In my experience so far; "They're bastards, but they are our bastards. And they are still probably better than you bastards" .. sorry Mrs Exum.Londonstani, I am enjoying
Londonstani,
I am enjoying your commentary but it seems to me you are mistaking the denizens of Islamabad sector F-8 for "the people" of Pakistan. What does average person mean? in strictly economic terms the average Pakistani is a nearly landless peasant. And I assure you that NONE of the peasants in my home village would ever say anything remotely like "they are bastards, but they are OUR bastards".
Even in terms of the elite, I suggest a much longer sojourn in Pakistan before you so confidently assert what they are thinking. Your sentence sound to me like what the "average Pakistani nationalist from Islamabad" might say...and even there you are missing the 10% of Islamabadis who actually support Zardari or the 17.5% who hate the taliban more than they hate America...
Sorry, I got distracted
Sorry, I got distracted during my comment and veered off into some weird direction...can we skip that comment?
You should have been in
You should have been in Islamabad earlier to see the scare-mongering about the "4000 US Marines" that would be guarding the large new expansion of the US embassy. The pakistani press saw the budgetary figures on the embassy expansion and extrapolated upwards to somehow come up with a number of either 1000, 2000 or 4000 marines.
It is likely that the weapons were properly licensed with the appropriate agency of the Pakistan Ministry of Foreign affairs and that some mid level, ignorant police had no idea where to check when they stopped the vehicle. There is no centralized computer database of what weapon serial numbers are licensed to what person. The police frequently don't even have radios to call in a quesiton like that.
Diplomatic vehicles are not supposed to be searched. It is considered sovereign territory. Look into the Vienna convention...
A country in which this is a
A country in which this is a deal breaker is already lost from a P.R. standpoint.
Angels and pinheads.
Consider me underwhelmed by
Consider me underwhelmed by Pakistani sophistication.
VIsitor 4. 07: Apologies for
VIsitor 4. 07: Apologies for badly stating my premises, I did not mean tio imply that this was not already a prevalent mode of thinking. Rather, I was pointing out that (as far as my feedback from diaspora pakistanis goes) much of the unease with the AMriki stems from their handling of the issues of Israeli exceptionality: The hypocricy of letting them go without nuclear inspections, Goldstone report, etc. Wich is just one factor in the initial mistrust built up over many years. My suggestion was rather that the K-L bill stipulates your countries elites getting lots and lots of money from these same folks might make the average Pakistani feeling that their leaders have sold all principles even more than before?
I am happy to be proven wrong, my feedback comes from not so many sources, few of them well educated. Thank you for your response!
P.S. "Diplomatic vehicles
P.S. "Diplomatic vehicles are not supposed to be searched. It is considered sovereign territory. Look into the Vienna convention.."
Sometimes it pays to actually read the links. The Daily News explicitly states the car did not have diplomatic licenseplates.
You are a douche. On my top
You are a douche. On my top ten douche list. And you are going down.
You actually tried to distance yourself from McChrystal about a month ago when things were bad. You actually tried to con people into thinking you had nothing to do with anything. After spending your entire blogging career trying to show how important you might be.
Either come clean and give it up. Or I'm gonna take your fucking head off
Run, Motherfucker
Response to Visitor 10 and
Response to Visitor 10 and Fnord
To Visitor 10:
Agreed that the the sticking points between US and GHQ lie deeper than PR debacles. But those issues have endured all thru Mushraf regime, all thru the US/ Pak partnership while shipping out al qaeda etc. No denying there is a clear cleavage between the US and Pak positions on the Afghan Taliban-but thats been the case from day one. That was there too in days of Darling Mush. and explain the constant grouse of the Bush adminstration regarding Pakistani double speak. The lies and deception happen because the GHQ tries to find space for manouver within the tight spot created by its need to keep the US engaged, and its divergent views regarding the geo-politics and security of its western borders. And by the way, i think too much emphasis is placed on the India centricism of its Afghan-Taliban policies. Pakistan or GHQ, if you like, have supported and continue to support the inclusion of the Taliban in a power sharing deal in Kabul for various reasons, based on their calculations regarding the prospects of 1. US war against Taliban insurgency and the capacity of western +local Afghan partners in marginalising the taliban 2. the nation-building/ reconstruction enterprise and the likelihood of the emergence of another cohesive Pushtun political force that can rival the centralised/organisational nature of the Taliban, in the next decade or so. India's messing about on the boders in Baluchistan becomes a conveinent ruse to find a space to continue with our policies. There is a strategic calculas involved but it is
not entirely india-centric. and that is why the GHQ finds it expedient to use the contested space of Public opinion to flex muscle- Its like: see how they react to the benign Kerry-Lugar Bill and you think you can press us to move on Quetta Shura?
"The army is not just waking up to "public opinion", they are manufacturing public opinion. When Kamran Khan, Ahmed Qureshi and Sheikh Rashid all line up and start making a fuss about the same thing, you know where that signal came from."
But this is hardly remarable! security establishments always, all over the world attempt to "manufacture" public opinion. Surely, you could'nt have missed such manufacturing during your stay in the US. The point I was making is that ham handed handling of PR makes their job easy.
"American dictation" could have saved us from ourselves, but I also realize that is such a silly hope."
You see the hey day of the idea of "American Dictation" turning us into bigger, muslim versions of South korea's is well and gone. Now mothers put their kids to sleep telling them how too much dictation can turn you into Iraq or Afghanistan. Sorry for the daramatization! but its appallingly difficult to resurrect confidence in the US ability to do the right thing, in the short term. Equally difficult to turn over the steering wheel in into their hands entirely, and sit back and relax. Already, Londonstani is surprised when he lands in Islamabad that it looks less like Basra, kabul or Khartoum-god forbid. No! engagement with the US is desirable, But US plans for Pakistan must be moderated with inputs and perspectives informed by national/regional ground realities.
Also there is no denying that the far more serious fault line in Pakistan, is the Civil/ military relationship dysfunction, and not the rising problem of militancy Jehad Inc. But it is a dysfunction that has unfolded over a 60 year period. The attempt to do away with it in one fell sweep can cause dangerous destabilization.
Ah! luv Predictions Visitor...the KL Bill in the parliament. they will go on forever, debating. the heat will go off soon. but I put my money on some cosmetic changes in wordplay in the final Obama version happening. lets see.But definetly no public rupture with the US on the cards.
To Fnord: first, my Salam to your Mother. She should be fine, specially as she is probably a private guest with a local family. There is no random targetting of foreigners. Most attacks target security agencies, foreign missions and installations etc. But she should be well advised to trust her pakistani hosts instincts regarding her palce and time of mobility.
Now to your question: "what consequences for Pakistan do you see from a US withdrawal?"
Not good, I am afraid. But fear the fall out from any escalation in US engagement is even more dangerous. The withdrawl would probably result in a replay of the factional fighting of the 1990's with some critical variations. Its a no brainer that pakistan is likely to be sucked into the contest in afghanistan, as would most of the other bordering states, including Russia, indirectly. Now for the variations: if Taliban struggled to expand their control to the North last time they were in power, they will find themselves more constrianed to do so now. Most of the ANA and ANP along with all the hardware is likely to join the Tajik and Uzbek militias of the strongmen from the North.In the 90's Afghanistan's northern neighbours like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan were struggling with their own transitions and in Tajikistan's case a civil war. Russia ws also preoccupied with economic woes and shrinkage of territorial space. Things stand very different today. Any US withdrawl would lead to intense game play by Aghanistan's neighbours in the North. Pakistan will no longer be the predominant player. Not necessarily a bad thing! Pakistan's bet is that at least the Taliban will emerge as the uncontested political force in the Pustun areas. The changed enviornment in the North might also convince the taliban to come to some accomodation with the Non Pushtun factions to form a power sharing Gov in Kabul. A lot can happen- a lot can go wrong. One thing is clear US forces or no forces-Taliban or no Taliban- the international community must not abandon Afghanistan as in the 90's. And there are various ways they can remain fruitfully engaged that does not involve direct military interventions.
Johnny Rico: Wow, thats the
Johnny Rico: Wow, thats the first death-threat in this blogs history. My guess is that your IP-adress is being followed by interested gnomes at this point.
The current head of the
The current head of the government, Mr Zardari (whose most remarkable achievement to date is to somehow have married into the Bhutto dynasty, to the ongoing bafflement of the locals) has a long-standing nickname in the country: "Mr 10%".
So we have a weak government, resentment against perceived US "colonisation", and an established "deep state" (Turkey reference intentional) that still operates under Stone Age thinking. Culturally, they're still the same folks who dealt with Bengali grievances in a less than subtle manner:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Searchlight
India extends its interests in Astan with money and collaboration. By contrast, the Pak deep state can't possibly conceive any other method than having a barbaric proxy force take over the country. That's not going to end well.
Londonstani, thirty five
Londonstani, thirty five years ago, Iranians had the same exact problem in their country. One of the biggest public grievances, besides the fact that the government was a US installed dictatorship, was that American contractors and embassy staff were not held accountable to Iranian law- ie. they could do no wrong. Under such conditions, you're bound to have incidents like the type you describe. It would be extraordinary for it not to happen.
Hearts and minds. That's quite the fallback concept. Sounds expensive, and inherently corrupt.
Manipulative foreign handouts. Dependence. Sad state of affairs.
Think independence, Londonstani. Think Peace Pipeline!
Islo elite: thank you for
Islo elite: thank you for the predictions. I tend to agree, though I think the army is playing this up more than I expected, which tells me that they seriously fear that this may be the start of "bloody civilians" asking them questions and (god forbid) giving them orders someday. WHY they would fear such a thing, I have no idea.
Our main disagreement is that you think a neo-taliban regime in part of afghanistan is somehow desirable, while I think that is a recipe for disaster and will lead to a new endless civil war. I think the only possible "good outcome" (not easy, but better than the alternatives) is a determined American effort and a working Afghan government. I think you may underestimate the US army and the new ANA. They COULD fail, but they could also succeed. I think given about 3-5 years, they could have a pacified Afghanistan and a beaten taliban whose moderate elements would actually join the new Afghan regime. The alternatives are all worse than this. COnsidering that this is the far-sighted brilliant general staff that came up with "strategic depth", Kargil and the whole jihadi operation, I am not too impressed when they bring in their powerpoints about how critical it is to cut a deal with the "good taliban".
To Visitor: "recipe for
To Visitor:
"recipe for disaster and will lead to a new endless civil war."
After 8 years and no end insight, it looks endless enough to me. And as most of the dead are Afghans- ANA, ANP, huge number of civilians caught in cross fire, and ofcourse the taliban; yes the Taliban; they dont count their dead, but as Antonio Guistozzi puts it, they have a very high turnover rate. Looks like they might already be in the midst of a civil war.
"what is required is a "determined American effort" and "working Afghan governments." I think the last Helmand operation launched with 4000 US troops was determined enough, and see what happened. Dont get me wrong, I think the US has one of the greatest militaries in the world and the troops have fought valiantly. Its just a wrong war. Fighting COIN battles amidst mud walled kitchen gardens, on alien land, without an Afghan government interface, is a tragic ordeal.
As for the 'working Afghan Government', even in areas of relative peace there has been nothing that can even remotely pass for governance ( look up Giles Dorronsoro) . and ANA, will not be up and running anytime soon. There is no such thing as a 'moderate Taliban.' If by that you mean those taliban which give up fighting against the US troops and join the Afghan interior ministry bosses in the narco bussiness, than you can break away as many 'moderate Taliban' as you like and you will still see no end to war in Afghanistan.
"But US plans for Pakistan
"But US plans for Pakistan must be moderated with inputs and perspectives informed by national/regional ground realities." - Islo Elite
What does that mean?
Comment by Visitor on
Comment by Visitor on October 7, 2009 - 9:22pm
" There is no centralized computer database of what weapon serial numbers are licensed to what person. The police frequently don't even have radios to call in a quesiton like that."
Are you in Pakistan Islamabad? You do know we are talking about islamabad police right?
"THEIR vision will lead to more war in Afghanistan and eventually, new confrontation with India.
We successfully stole a nuclear bomb when nobody really wanted us to have one. "
"Culturally, they're still the same folks who dealt with Bengali grievances in a less than subtle manner:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Searchlight
"
Madhu is an Indian and does not need to masquerade as Pakistani to make her point. For some reason this Bharat Rakshak brigade have this strange fetish of portraying themselves as Pakistani on internet for taking any potshots.
Islo Elite , By "working
Islo Elite ,
By "working afghan govt" visitor meant an afghan govt that can realize this fantasy of some across the border of double pincer. ;)
Islo elite: "working Afghan
Islo elite: "working Afghan government" is not impossible. But keep in mind that "working" is a very loose term, all I am talking about is a govt that controls the major cities and keeps banditry on the highways down to tolerable levels. As far as the ANA is concerned, I think you should take note of the fact that they have repelled several Mumbai style attacks in the last few months without falling apart or deserting. 3-5 years and they will hold most of Afghanistan. NO one will hold all the villages and most of us will not care. The taliban can fight till kingdom come, but they are not the only ones with an endless supply of cannon-fodder. Most young men in Afghanistan have nothing else to do. There is a difference between a contained insurgency and all out civil war with opposing warlords holding well defined territories. IF the Americans leave (and they could, I am not saying they are definitely staying, but I am saying they COULD stay and they COULD win) then you have a real, classic civil war. IF the Americans stay, they can have an Afghan govt up and running in another 3-5 years. You dont have to believe it, but if Obama decides to stay, I would not suggest buying Taliban stock. I would also suggest cashing in the lashkar e tayyaba chips in that case. There will be a crackdown against those guys too; In the end, the Pak army strategic geniuses know which side their bread is buttered. They are just bargaining hard right now because they think they see an opening (Obama's public wavering) and they may well get their wish about civilian oversight (and maybe thats all that matters to them) but if they think they can get the taliban back in kabul, keep the kashmiri jihadis going AND collect full payment from the US, then I suspect they have (again) misunderstood how much leverage they have and how much leverage the guys with the bigger guns and deeper pockets have. In any case, my point is that EVEN if they are right about the US and the taliban, that outcome is not in THEIR interest. The property values in E-10 will not hold up if Uncle Sam actually pulls out.
"For some reason this Bharat
"For some reason this Bharat Rakshak brigade have this strange fetish of portraying themselves as Pakistani on internet for taking any potshots."
Huh?
Madhu is an AMERICAN and isn't taking potshots at anyone (well, except politicians in general, but that's not country specific). I just would like to understand the situation better, that's all.
To Visitor: Nothing is
To Visitor:
Nothing is impossible. In an ideal world. Controlling major roads and highways is the core idea in the plan forwarded by the excellent analyst /scholar, Giles Dorronsoro. The same was tried by the soviets, with some initial success. We all know how it ended. Although the US still maintains the FOBs, and major presence in the eastern troubled areas even at district level, mobility within the countrey is highly constrained. I dont know how you feel that the ANA will be able to keep major highways open.
The other issue with this city centric approach is that afghanistan's major population is rural. Majority of Afghans will be relegated to be ruled by the Taliban anyways. How this situation is going to strengthen the beleagured Afghan Gov. ligitemacy and governace, is anybody's guess. The Taliban are putting up strong resistance even when aggressively engaged by the coalition. The drawing in into cities and pop. centers of US/ISAF forces are more likely to make them thrive and not wither away in 3-5 years. They are not bound by timelines of public opinion and war fatigue. The US, I agree could easily last it out for 3-5 years more. they have the "deep pockets". But than what?
Three years down the line we will be back where we are today. this is the fear that is wavering Obama's resolve. Uncle Sam has far more enduring intersts inthe the region to be trifled away on this needless entanglement with the
Taliban hordes. The property prices in E-10 are not going anywhere, Taliban or no taliban Uncle Sam is going to remain engaged here for the long term.
Islo, we shall see. btw, are
Islo, we shall see.
btw, are you saying that because the taliban cannot be killed off completely, its better to just invite them into the cities as well? why? why not keep killing them and hold on to the cities? About "most of Afghanistan is rural", sure, just like most of Pakistan used to be. But the modern state was in the cities. The rural people have to come to the cities as well. They will figure out how to manage this divide. Are you saying the afghans are somehow genetically incapable of running the place without the blessed taliban? You yourself said there are no "moderate taliban". So again, are you saying all of afghanistan should be handed over to them because otherwise they are never going to go away? just curious.
Madhu the American Indian
Madhu the American Indian :)
it was not directed towards you. Was just giving an example that you do not try to hide yourself as some Pakistani insider like some people do when they are in most cases from the other side of the border.Directed towards the supposed Pakistani visitor who was making the claim that Pakistani police does not have acces to a centeralized database of firearms.
@ Visitor 6:08 pm - haha, I
@ Visitor 6:08 pm - haha, I get it now!
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