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Pakistan Dispatch - Newsflash: Countdown and Upsurge
Pakistani news channels are reporting that there has been an explosion in Swat, killing over 30 people. The explostion occured in an that is supposed to have been cleared by the army. Here is the BBC story.
To anyone keeping count, this is the fourth major attack by militants in a week.
The attacks are increasing as official pronouncements suggest the operation is coming closer to kick off time. The Dawn newspaper had an article today saying it would be launched in the next 48 hours. The sourcing, however, looked a bit dodgy.
Londonstani has not seen this reported in Western newsagencies, but earlier this morning Express TC, one of the local channels, was reporting two other smaller attacks; one in Faisalabad, Pakistan's third largest city. Either these are considered too minor to report, or the channel screwed up. It's worth mentioning here, that Londonstani has worked for a newsagency in the past were there was an unofficial policy of reporting deaths. The general rule of thumb was; 1 foreigner (Western) was equal to 10 locals. In other words, an incident that killed 8 locals, was not deemed worthy of coverage.
Londonstani, Do you notice
Londonstani, Do you notice any systematic change in how this insurgency is being projected in the media? I ask because there are a number of peculiar aspects of this insurgency in Pakistan. In all other insurgencies that I can think of, the state was crystal clear about who the enemy was and made a sustained effort (not always successful) to demonize the insurgents as well as their fellow travelers. But in Pakistan it is still hard to find any clarity on this issue (I was last there almost a year ago, but keep in touch electronically....I guess I am asking if I am missing something or they are still blaming it on T.H.E.M?).
This systematic confusion can be seen in how Jaish e Mohammed is being treated. The terrorist who led the attack on GHQ was an army deserter who had joined Jaish. Yet Jaish still has operational madressas in Bahawalpur and their leader (maulana Masood Azhar) is reportedly being sheltered by one wing of intelligence, while another wing tries to hunt down his minions!
Has Masood Azhar now been moved? The army faces a literally life and death situation and they really have to make a clean break with these people. Even I dont think they are keeping India-specific Jihadis alive for future use any more. I think they are just too embarrassed at the notion of coming out and denouncing their former pet proxies and they are scared of the jihadi sympathizers in the army itself and want to keep the fog of confusion around in the hope that "moderate" jihadis in the army will not go ballistic; I think they have to bite the bullet and once and for all say they are done with this Jihadi business, and just like the high command changed its mind, it expects lower level jihadi sympathizers in the army to change their mind as well. Certainly some of those lower level jihadis will then leave the army for Waziristan, but many others will see which way the wind is blowing and will switch to "moderate Islam". It can be done.
Some (gratuitous?) advice: dont rely too much on the Islamabad elite, who are currently confused, scared, bombastic and so poisoned by conspiracy theories that you will never get anything useful from them. Leave Islamabad and go to Lahore, hang out with old leftists (filter out the anti-american theories from them), talk to working class people, and most valuable, go to Islamists and Jihadis directly. Dont let them give you the "western reporter spin". Ask them what they think of the army in general, about General Mahmud, General Hamid Gul, General Pasha, General Kiyani. Ask them about the brothers who went to Mumbai and how awesome their performance was (mention that you have heard some of them were hafiz e quran). Use your reporters skills but filter out notions of how you already know the Pakistani people because you are Londonstani.
I hope you dont mind the advice....its friendly advice.
Mehar Omar Khan on
Mehar Omar Khan on Afghanistan.
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/301-khan.pdf
Meher Omar Khan's piece is a
Meher Omar Khan's piece is a start, but do not forget that it still includes the agenda of having a pro-GHQ taliban faction inserted into Afghanistan. This article is partly an attempt to sell ISI's idea of saving something from their Afghan fiasco by rebranding their agents as "Pakhtun nationalists" and having them take power in that format. The problem with this strategy (not an unusual one, many states interpret their interests in similarly narrow fashion all over the world) is that the jihadis are not going to follow the script. They will go off message and restart the entertainments in Kabul stadium the moment they are allowed back in. Its another matter if the taliban decide they CANNOT win militarily and their more moderate adherents switch sides. This proposal will not lead to such an eventuality. It will simply embolden them and convince them that they are on the right track and can win if they are patient. Also, the piece lacks concrete details. How does Major sahib propose to change the political equation in Kabul? does Karzai stay or go? new elections? how will the "model districts" be defended? how can one have islands of progress in a sea of war?
The bottom line is, you have to have the upper hand in the war before you can make a deal...
To Omar: "Some (gratuitous?)
To Omar:
"Some (gratuitous?) advice: dont rely too much on the Islamabad elite, who are currently confused, scared, bombastic and so poisoned by conspiracy theories that you will never get anything useful from them."
Could you possibly mean Me. Bombastic and scared at the same time! Ouch! that hurt!
I like Lahore too, But I am afraid I dont have the luxury to take off for more pleasant climes, as yourself. For the time being I have to amuse myself "cowering" in bad old Islamabad.
Btw, Maj. Maher omar Khan's article, reads, very curiously like your posts- any relation?
But coming back to the subject at hand, you certainly sound as confused as he is.
Are you suggesting that Obama should send the Extra 40,000 troops? commit to fully defeating the Taliban? if so
you stand with a lot of good and bright people who feel that. You should pat yourself on the back for thinking this one through. No need to get all negative about the Pak army. The poor chaps dont stand a chance against the might of the great US army, and such clear-thinking, brilliant advocates, as yourself.
Islo... incredible break
Islo... incredible break down and analysis of Omar....
He is quiet the scholar and very knowledgeable concerning his ability to read people and knowing the right one's to talk to in Pakistan ....proverbial "ear to the ground".
Civil war seems to be looming and coming closer in Pakistan. Only a matter of time before the chaos hits full force. Only time will tell if these insurgents (as you call them) accomplish tearing the fabric of Pakistan. Only thing is, these people aren't insurgents and they will in fact be performing a coup d'état.
Keep your eyes on this one...
Islo, I did not mean you in
Islo,
I did not mean you in particular. You sound reasonably sane and are probably the "go-to guy" in every party in E-7.
Major sahib is not a relation. I think we differ on how much good the ISI-friendly taliban can do at this point, so any resemblance is coincidental..
I have to run, but these are comments I posted in my group this morning, you can see which way I am thinking (and you are right, I too am confused. Arent you? Isnt everyone?)
The war is not already lost, but the way Obama is going, its likely to be lost. That will not be the end of the world from an American perspective (in fact, from a purely American perspective one can make a good case that America is wasting men, money and reputation in an enterprise whose main beneficiaries are regional powers like Iran, India, China and Russia). America carried on well enough after a much bigger and more humiliating defeat in Vietnam. But the loss will fry the ass of the new middle class in Afghanistan and Pakistan, who will then blame the Americans for coming in, blame the Americans for leaving, blame the Americans for the militants atrocities and finally, blame the Americans for their own demise.
That is the worst case scenario. The war can still be won, but it wont be easy.
Btw, I dont agree with your idea that the good taliban (aka "ISI-Friendly taliban") have to be allowed in right now in order to get a reasonable result. They will not follow your script. If the US abandons the current corrupt and incompetent Afghan govt and gets out (as they must once they make that first decision) the ISI will NOT be able to deliver on their promise of "well behaved good taliban". The entertainments in Kabul stadium will be extremely gory....
The time to negotiate with "moderate taliban" will be after they are no longer confident of victory. That time has not yet come and will not come if the "strategy" being peddled by GHQ is adopted. The current Afghan regime is the only game in town. Either make it work or get as far away from that area as possible. I also think the new ANA is being underestimated. They are far from perfect, but they can be made to work. And if you are sure they cannot work, then get the US the hell out of Afghanistan and follow plan B: let the afghans kill each other for a few decades as Pakistani, Indian, Iranian and Russian proxies fight it out. Until the new Chinese Dari speaking special forces are ready. Then let China try and fix the "graveyard of empires", that should allow the US to recover from its various crises at a safe distance.
Until the new Chinese Dari
Until the new Chinese Dari speaking special forces are ready?
Besides Opium, what other kind of natural resource could China want in Afghanistan or Pakistan? You must be kidding... why would they waste their time on training special forces to save / fix the "graveyard of empires"?
What's in it for them Omar?
If they are smart, they
If they are smart, they wont. But you know how these things work. Jihadists from Afghanistan are bound to attack chinese interests in Sinkiang and beyond, probably carry out a big attack one day (Chinese 9-11) and then "rising superpower" has to show who is boss and you know where that can lead...
hmm.. once took part in a
hmm.. once took part in a gaming exercise (from a diplomatic/political stance) along the lines Omar mentions. I was China... Wasn't long before I was getting all Mao on Afghanistan.. and they were firing up the Uighars. Didn't end well for anyone.Jihadists from Afghanistan
Jihadists from Afghanistan carry out a (Chinese 9-11)???? That is about as likely as the metal band - "Black Warrant" having a platinum record and going on a world tour with Kizz. Perhaps this will all unfold in the Year of the Tiger / a.k.a. Yang Metal 庚 寅 Feb 2010 – Feb 2011 LOL!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q79GRRb2Pqs
PUNJABI METAL!!!! ..actually kicks butt.... But, these guys need to keep working at it.... just like Pakistan's Leadership. Although, Black Warrant could antagonize the Chinese by writing a song about "Lahore"!
I'm sure that would anger the Chinese to start a conflict.. The whole R's and L's pronunciation thing... I know I would be miffed.... :)
"Besides Opium, what other
"Besides Opium, what other kind of natural resource could China want in Afghanistan or Pakistan?"
In a word copper. Aynak looks very profitable for the Chinese.
http://www.globalpolicy.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id...
And to carry on my favorite topic of conversation - lets start talking to them about having Chinese troops pull AO security.
Ah the chinese, Ive been
Ah the chinese, Ive been ranting about em for three years counting now. Hey, idea for you Exum: Why dontcha invite some chinese guest-writer from some chinese mil thinkthank to write a piece on their perspective of it? They have a lot of mil-blog activity if Danger Room is correct.Even if it will be the redacted gov. version, wouldnt it be interesting? (Is there any CNAS plans for reaching out to other thinkthanks in other countries, btw?)
Copper? you must be
Copper? you must be kidding? Africa is full of the stuff and it would be worthless for the Chinese to try and mine it in Pakistan or Afghanistan..... Too many headaches and not cost productive!
Additionally, they are too busy raping all of Africa for it's precious resources right now ....maybe in 4 or 5 decades, when they've used up everything in Mother Africa...
I have the solution to the
I have the solution to the Pakistani insurgency and vehicle born IED's- spend those Kerry- Lugar billions of dollars on new cars for the population and destroy all the old bangers. Pakistani's, south asians, even western lads of Pakistani descent love their motors and spend much time and cash modifying them, from the customised buses and trucks in Pakistan to the more pimped. Potential jihadists would be too busy tinkering with their new motors to worry about fighting infidels. Also, as everyone knows, a good car needs a good sound system and all those bass bins pumping out the latset Bollywood tunes would send the Talibs crazy.
I second fnord's idea: the
I second fnord's idea: the CNAS Asia page you linked was pretty empty; why not more guest blog posts? Or a regular "link dump" of good articles sent into you lot? Start a tab!
*Why I am so interested in all this is beyond me. Goodness - time for a new hobby.
"Send those Kerry- Lugar
"Send those Kerry- Lugar billions of dollars on new cars for the population and destroy all the old bangers."
You know, that's a great frigging idea!
With the 2008 Dakar Rally being canceled in January, amid fears of terrorist attack, we need to dream up a new challenging race.
What really consists of a terrorist attack anyway? Wouldn't some people consider this merely difficult terrain? Also, wouldn't you believe a terrorist attack / dodging VBIEDS & bullets only adds an element of excitement to the race? Do you want to live forever Jack Burton?
I say line up the T 1 - 5 & open class vehicles and let them rip from Damascus to Dunhuang. Let's make the Silk Road Rally something they will never forget!
First Prize for the winner is old Singer sewing machine, a Nokia cellphone, a truck load of white marble, some poorly cooked rice & vegetables. And lastly, one bar of soap.
These are all prized possessions for the Taliban. This should get them all from shooting each other and perhaps, "Peace" will have a chance?
Afghan Taliban Deny
Afghan Taliban Deny Allegations that They Have Transnational Goals, Claim Nationalist Resistance to Occupation
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