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So a suicide bomber today killed "several top commanders in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards" and the Iranians blamed the US and the UK. So far, so predictable. But away from the grandstanding, it was a slightly different story.
One of the Pakistani news channels just reported that the Iranian foreign minister called in the Pakistani ambassador to complain that his country's territory was being used as a launch pad by terrorists to attack Iran.
BBC is reporting that Jundullah, a Sunni terrorist group operating in Iranian Balouchistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.
The obvious question that springs to mind is whether an instable Pakistan is leaking fall out. It's one thing if Pakistani actors are cultivating mini armies to use against neighbours in a competition for influence or to bleed an opponent. It's quite another if Pakistani territory is being used by armed groups in a pre-9/11 Afghanistan type situation. In fact, it has the potential to be worse, because Afghanistan's Taliban government hadn't spent decades training mini armies that had support networks and physical assets all over their territory. Of course, it didn't also have nuclear weapons.
If something similar happens in China's Xinjiang provice, does Pakistan get like a toaster... free refill, or something?
Looks like its time to waken the "Us trained groups from Iraq" meme. ANd who knows, does anyone deny that the west has been funding groups inside Iran?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/18/iran-suicide-bomb-revenge-vo...
good stuff from brachman
http://jarretbrachman.net/?p=1194
Although my eyes are decidedly not on the ground in the region, I do not think that one can assume any Pakistani responsibility for this, despite the Iranian complaints.
Firstly, Iran is under an embargo. This means that there is a strong economic incentive for smuggling and associated corruption; as the goods must exfiltrate Pakistan (and et cetera) at points all along the border, there is slim hope of strong border security. Evidenced, as far as I can tell, by the significant problem of heroin abuse in Iran (I assume the production is not domestic, which I do not know). Given that criminal elements are involved, it seems likely that just about anything man-portable could be moved across the border for a price.
Secondly, the Revolutionary Guard is not so popular in all segments of Iranian society, recently. The impression one gets from Iranian bloggers is that, as cynically as it may be viewed in the west, the notion of a quasi-democratic Islamic Republic was rather dear to most Iranians, and this notion has been rather deflated by the bungling of the leadership throughout the ballot fraud crisis this summer. I do not think Iranians in general still feel as assured that they live in a Republic, and perhaps more importantly, I get the sense that the actions and self-serving theology of the Revolutionary Guard are leaving many with the feeling that they no longer are living in a truly Islamic republic. The radical/fundamentalist spiritual leaders of the Guard, such as Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, seem to be showing a growing certitude, coupled with hints of contempt for the opinions of the greater body of Islamic scholars and judges (in Quom and elsewhere). As the Shi'a clergy, descendants more-or-less of Mohammed, are supposed to merely be adjudicating God's law imperfectly but as best as they are able pending the return of the twelfth Imam, this would seem a second step further away from conventional Twelver Islamic doctrine pre-revolution. Neither this, nor the avaricious economic activity of the Guard, has not gone down particularly well even in conservative circles, and it is no stretch of the imagination to guess that it might have gone down less well in the ethnic provinces.
Finally, the Iranian government has an overwhelming need to maintain the appearance of foreign involvement of some sort, from anywhere, in the current unrest. Even if they knew for a fact that the explosives were produced or obtained domestically, it would be to their advantage to lodge a protest with a plausible country of origin.
Londonstani, the US and UK have repeatedly been threatening Iran with military force for how long now? That an attack against Iran's military has now taken place, how can it be considered outrageous that blame be pointed in that general direction?
And by the way, Londi, don't forget the Pakistani-supported Taliban incident of August 1998, when a dozen or so Iranian diplomats were executed. So calm yourself down for a second. This isn't exactly something new.
And don't think the Iranians are the same kind of hell-bent for leather madmen the Americans are. Contrary to popular Western belief, they are not. The Iranians haven't threatened the Pakistanis. If anything, so far they've reacted in a more cooperative manner with Pakistan than 1998.
The terrorist attack is regrettable. Brig. Gen. Noor Ali Shushtari was an Iran-Iraq war hero. To put in American terms, this is comparable to losing General Frederick M. Franks, Jr. (while he was active) through an act of foreign-sponsored domestic terrorism. Shushtari goes down a martyr (in American terms: he "died for his country").
The immediate question now is how this might affect tomorrow's nuclear negotiations in Vienna. And the very short term question is what form of calculated response we can expect from the IRGC.
Naturally, this serves as a unifying rally cry, right at a time when the Iranian nation feels the need for one.
Once upon a time, we used to heart the Jundallah. Just sayin'.
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http://itsallverbatim.blogspot.com
Interesting to say the least, all within 24 hours
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=72567§ionid=351020101
Jundullah right-hand man killed in Iran
Sat, 18 Oct 2008 22:36:45 GMT
Jundallah right-hand man, Ahmad Fani, has been killed in Iran.
Four Jundullah militants have been killed in clashes with Iranian forces in Sistan-Baluchestan Province, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Jundallah kills senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders
October 18, 2009 12:13 PM ET
By Bill Roggio
The anti-Iranian regime resistance group claimed responsibility for killing 29 Iranians, including two brigadier generals in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and tribal leaders in the southeast.
Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/#ixzz0UKAfUSG1
Correction:
First report was 2008 not 2009
Oh the irony. Iran and the IRGC are probably better than anyone else in the world at supporting dissident and insurgent groups in conducting attacks much like this one. Excuse me if I don't feel outraged they got a taste of their own medicine - assuming, of course - the US or someone else is supporting Jundallah (I would think Saudi Arabia is a more likely suspect).
India?
There can be little doubts, that JMMI (Jombeshe-e Moqawamat-e Mardomi-ye Iran, formerly known as Jundullah) has strong connections to its kinsmen across the "border" to Pakistan. In fact, neither the Iranian part of Baluchistan is under control of the government in Tehran nor the border (yes, the opium and heroin comes from Afghanistan and Pakistan). Of cause the same applies to Pakistani Baluchistan, which serves as a save heaven for JMMI.
The first question is whether Pakistan is truely interested in messing with Baluchi tribesmen, who direct their anger primarily towards Iran. I guess the answer is a clear 'No'.
The second question (which we cannot truely answer here) is whether actual support comes from the ISI and western services. Not that it would be too necessary - as ponted out above, Sunni insurgents fighting against infidels (in this case heretic rawafidh) can always count on some generous support from the Gulf (and JMMIposted its statements on the attacks in Arabic before Baluchi).
But the third and most interesting question is to what amount this low-level insurgency/ terrorism affects Western interests in the region. Some beheadings here, some suicide attacks on mosques or Guards there will surely anger Tehran, but are far from bringing down the regime. On the other hand - what is the fallout for our own campaign in AFG? Will Sunni tribesmen who give shelter to Insurgents fighting against Infidels in Iran deny it to those who do the same in Afghanistan? JMMI's struggle also fits perfectly well into the global jihadi narrative of "ahl as-sunna wa-l-jamaa" against the rest (i.e. cruisaders, zionists, shia/ rawafidh, heretic governments/ tawaghit, ikhwanis, murjias...).
Jundullah is being embraced by the Salafi jihadist types:
Jihadi-Salafis Celebrate Jundullah's Attacks in Iran
Don't forget about Seymour Harsh's article from 2008:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh?curren...
Excuse me, Hersh...
The Great Satan and it's Zionist lackeys sure get around these days, god curse them. All very 'My Uncle Napoleon'
Dear Uncle has a paranoid fear of the British, believing they are coming for him at any moment because of their many (imagined) defeats at his hands. This fear is handily exploitable, and the narrator's father takes full advantage of it, with clever and tragicomic results.
If Pakistan has its terrotory used to attack Iran, technicaly it is at war with Iran and this is no good
ma dar tehran be hamvatananeman komak mikonim.dorod bar rigi. in video ra bebinid dar yotobe[freedom for iran javanan]komando amir az tehran
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