Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS.
The trick with bad news in Washington is to release it on Friday afternoon so no one notices. That's the idea behind a new paper I wrote with Richard Fontaine on Yemen. Combined with Yezid's recent paper on SSR in Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen, this should make for some cheery weekend reading.
In the coming decades, Yemen will suffer three negative trends – one economic, one demographic, and one environmental. Economically, Yemen depends heavily on oil production. Yet analysts predict that its petroleum output, already down from 460,000 barrels a day in 2002 to between 300,000 and 350,000 barrels in 2007 and down 12 percent in 2007 alone, will fall to zero by 2017. The government, which receives the vast majority of its revenue from taxes on oil production, has conducted virtually no planning for its post-oil future. Demographically, Yemen’s population – already the poorest on the Arabian Peninsula with an unemployment rate of 40 percent – is expected to double by 2035. An incredible 45 percent of Yemen’s population is under the age of 15. Environmentally, this large population will soon exhaust Yemen’s ground water resources. Given that a full 90 percent of Yemen’s water is used in highly inefficient agricultural projects, this trend portends disaster.
Now go drink heavily.
You gotta grow qat! Did you account for this in your paper?
I wonder what folks in Yemen are using to drink heavily - probably not the water.
Lovin' the Yemen coverage brah... keep it up
I'd suggest hands-on qat research. It would surely improve your quality of analysis.
These problems exist in every Arab country. A distressingly low average aged population with a distressingly high birth rate, lack of sustainable economic development (and, where there has been economic development not dependent on oil, e.g., Abu Dhabi and Dubai, a good share of the labor force are guest workers) and, most worrisome of all, serious lack of water and misuse of what they have. One of the major challenges of the next half century is going to come from the water issue. Expect Central, East, Southwest, Southeast and South Asia all to be seriously effected as well as the Middle East and North Africa. That’s a lot of territory and we’re not going to be able to fix all — or even a small portion — of it.
I hope you are doing a follow-on report of Yemen- 7 pages is not nearly enough to cover the problems that Yemen faces, let alone their consequences for the United States.
Did you consider at all the rates of LNG production in Yemen? Although I am not entirely sure of the rates and since I am too lazy to look up where I've seen the figures, I believe that Yemen has and is expected to expand the exportation of LNG.
Also, arms smuggling through Yemen is another regional-destabilizing affect to consider. Even though Yemen is already a major market/waypoint for arms smuggling (www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1100860.html), I imagine further decreases in Yemen's capacity to exercise sovereignty over its borders will not only destabilize the Arabian Peninsula but also areas across the Red Sea in Africa.
Interesting that nowhere in this paper is Iran mentioned. To date, Iran has been the only nation to step forward and offer to assist in negotiating a ceasefire as a confidant of the Houthis.
Ignoring Iran's potential role in Yemen is nearly as unrealistic as doing so for Iraq and Afghanistan.
BTW Andrew, did you catch the Economist report of Gen. Odierno and Amb. Hill recent meeting with IRGC Quds Gen. Suleimani in Iraq?
Apparently, Iran is not so ignored as these CNAS reports would lend one to believe.
-Salman e Farsi
AM:
I just skimmed over your paper - I have no substantive comments to make.
Two things, though:
1) Have you considered the impact of remittance income mitigating the oil wealth dropoff - http://www.amazon.com/Price-Wealth-Economics-Institutions-Political/dp/0....
2) Have you seen this report - http://www.dayan.tau.ac.il/commentary/memo74.pdf.
Regards
ADTS
So Yemen is dying. For about 2000 years. So what? They are helping our enemies (who are also in the process no doubt of planning to eat them).
Why do I need to drink because people who've chosen tribalism, backwardness, misogyny, oh and qat and will murder to keep it...and shelter our murderers...why should we drink? In celebration perhaps?
@Paul - elections have consequences. We are not fixing anything. We are leaving.
Good bye now cruel world. Be extra cruel to each other after we're gone. And say hello to the Chinese.
Ah, we can bring cheer to your dregs by simply respinning the scenario...
In the coming decades, Yemen will enjoy three positive trends – one economic, one demographic, and one environmental.
Economically, Yemen is ideally situated for various solar energy conversion projects - electricity generation, desalination and algal biofuel cultivation. If climate-related development aid comes through, Yemen can invest in improving their water and energy supply - and hence food production. This all depends on improvement in agricultural water use - but there are some technical experts on water conservation in the region, try the Negev Desert. If Yemen is careful, it could start meeting all its food needs without relying on imports, and could even becme a net exporter.
Demographically, Yemen’s population is ideally suited to provide the labor needed for a serious overhaul of their water supply and food production systems. An incredible 45 percent of Yemen’s population is under the age of 15, meaning they can work hard for at least the next ten years and get the job done. Ensuring that women have access to economic rewards for working will do more to reduce population growth rate than anything else - and that's where international aid can play a role.
Environmentally, the switch to solar power and solar-based hydrocarbon fuels will clean up the local environment and possibly cushion the effects of population growth. A combination of women's access to economic opportunity and birth control would then lead to the same kind of stabilization of population seen in Europe - where the age structure is the opposite.
Of course, if the European demographic is top-heavy with elderly people, and the North African-Middle Eastern demographic is bottom-heavy with young people, then there is a rather obvious solution...
European migration to Yemen, what else! Yes, the land of retirement, Europe's Florida - Yemen! An economic win-win for everyone.
Print up some travel brochures emphasizing the kindly nature of the people, their eagerness to get to know wealthy European retirees, the beautiful vistas, the comfortable and safe living arrangements - I mean, Florida's got plenty of literature to base it all on...
This is great -- I can't wait to read CNAS' report about how Somalia's internal conflicts pose a critical threat to regional security and therefore the U.S. must stabilize and support it's internationally recognized government as well!
I'm also looking forward to CNAS's reports on other corrupt dysfunctional oil-rich-for-now governments dealing with transnational militias we need to strengthen: Sudan, Burma, Indonesia, Russia... the list is endless. Tally-ho, Ex! You got some writin' to do!
"..I'm also looking forward to CNAS's reports on other corrupt dysfunctional ..... governments"
Like the USA government? Notice I omitted "rich".
This is progressive war - war as social work, war as a government program - which is why it never ends ..
Maybe CNAS should relocate to 1300 Beijing Ave. For one thing being shown the actual bribe list might knock some f*cking sense into them...
But probably not.
Complete loss of oil production seems crazy, but I suppose it must happen someday. If Yemen looses it's main economic resource, and drinks away its water resources, then, /unfortunately/, those two problems will 'take care of' the demographic one, a la Malthus.
I was recently at a geological meeting in Portland where there was a special technical session that looked at groundwater usage in the gulf states (and other places, and had some interesting talks by an Army officer who's also a geology PhD student who worked on water resources in afghanistan). If nothing else, its impressive just how big of a problem drinkable ground water is in the gulf.
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