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Kilcullen Talks to the Beeb
November 13, 2009 | Posted by Abu Muqawama - 1:43pm | 6 Comments
AM: Any commentary on
AM: Any commentary on Kilcullen's recent semi-explosive "Go big or go home" comments at Gtown?
Dr Killcullen's analogy to a
Dr Killcullen's analogy to a building on fire that requires the dispatch of "enough" firefighters to put it out is simplistic and betrays a my-COIN-or-nothing approach. Of course there are gradations of options that could work. A COIN-only approach ignores the consistent improvement made in CSTC-A, progress in building ministerial and ANA capacity for at least four years. The National Military Academy of Afghanistan, for instance, is a relative success that has been strangely ignored by SOF-grown COINsters who point out failures. Why couldn't a 10K force of advisors accelerate the pace of improvement that is routinely ignored by the media? What about more fixed wing and rotary CAS, artillery assets and the training of regular ANA to ID and call in such strikes, which could force the Karzai regime as corrupt as it is (Tammany Hall and local politics in America might be similarly critiqued as corrupt) to take ownership of kinetic effects? The Afghans have to find their own poitical solutions, and a massive influx of foreign forces, specially COIN-smart as they might be, does not seem to be the way to do this. We need a competent and continuous advisory presence, which would seem to be a bit beyond the highly self-regarded SOF community that limits its impact with elitist "truths" anyway. Strengthening the advisory mission in CSTC-A and leveraging the US Ambassador in Kabul with this capacity-building effort (that can be scaled up or down based on political realities) is a wiser way to empower the ANA to do what it can.
Roguephant, the problem with
Roguephant, the problem with your idea is that a) the infrastructure to accelerate training and force build up doesn't exist, and would take 12 months or more to build, and b) recruiting and retention are so bad (and the ANP is worse) that currently there is no hope of being able to even get to 134/96 by next spring, much less ever getting to the 240/160 that is commonly discussed as the need. More personnel to man OMLT/POMLTs would be useful for the existing forces, but more trainers for a force that can't be recruited and has no place to train--the existing facilities are already programmed out well into the future--would not necessarily be useful.
Libertariansoldier, if we
Libertariansoldier, if we don't have and cannot quickly produce the facilities for increasing the ANA and ANP, how and where do we expect to house, supply, and maintain the 40k more US troops that GEN McChrystal has asked for? Also, simply increasing the number of advisors is certainly insufficient without more facilities, resources, and--most importantly--a new plan to improve ANA recruitment and retention. Obviously the forces alone could not be the only addition (remember the Iraq "Surge"-it was far more than just a 5 BCT troop increase; it came with a new mindset and many more facilities/resources).
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