Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS.
Is there really a difference between the Taliban in Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan? The question divides the Pakistani and American governments as well as analysts and observers, including those that post comments on this blog.
Events in and concerning Pakistan over the past couple of days have brought this question into sharper focus.
Apart from the military operation going on in Waziristan, Pakistan is keen to show that it is going after the men killing Pakistanis by the hundreds every week. Pakistani law enforcement agencies and the army's efforts are vital to assuage the growing despair and anger of a population that literally fears for its life as it goes out to buy food it is finding harder to afford. The latest attacks took place on Thursday, when a suicide bomber and a roadside bomb killed 22 people in Peshawar. So, the state machinery is keen to tell everyone how many militants it has killed and which is has caught - like the alleged mastermind of a string of attacks in the capital.
But is Pakistan choosing to fight the enemy it can't ignore while avoiding a clash with the militants fighting ISAF in Afghanistan? - You know the ones it, along with the US, helped train and kinda hopes will be its anti-Indian proxy in the new Afghanistan? It's no secret that the US thinks so. And reports in the local media suggest that CIA Director Leon Panetta made the point during his visit to Islamabad.
Yesterday, the Washington Times rode into the debate by claiming that Pakistan had relocated Mullah Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban, and moved him to Karachi. Yes, the WT isn't known for its extensive reporting network. And it is owned by Moonies, who spend most of their time worrying about how to get everyone married, (which sort of makes them quite ideologically akin to much of the Pakistani population). But you know what Moonie ownership means? Yep, good contacts with the CIA.
The named source in the story is Bruce Riedel, the man who chaired the Whitehouse review of Afghanistan-Pakistan policy earlier this year. It should be noted however that Riedel's actual quote from the article isn't the most definitive:
"Some sources claim the ISI decided to move him further from the battlefield to keep him safe" from U.S. drone attacks, said Mr. Riedel, who headed the Obama administration's review of policy for Afghanistan and Pakistan last spring. "There are huge madrassas in Karachi where Mullah Omar could easily be kept."
Although, the article goes on:
"A second senior intelligence officer who specializes in monitoring al Qaeda said U.S. intelligence had confirmed Mullah Omar's move through both electronic and human sources as well as intelligence from an unnamed allied service."
The article also quotes analyst Mary Habeck, a professor at John Hopkins, saying that the information suggests the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban are one in the same thing. Her position seems to be based on the idea that the Taliban have pretty much left Karachi alone.
But something doesn't sit quite right with Londonstani about all this. The evidence of inter Taliban squabbles as well as the attacks on civilians (which the "official" Taliban maintain are outside their rules of engagement) suggest that their aren't one or two Talibans but lots and lots of Talibans. Maybe it's comforting to see your enemy as distinct unified force, but is it more realistic to assume that "Taliban" is a convenient umbrella for a bunch of mixed grieviances and motivations?
Let's stop wasting our time and money in butt luck countries and concentrate on our new Main Enemy, which is China. Just watch the remake of the "V" series on ABC to understand what we are up against. Keep your eye on the ball, Gentlemen.
Just look at all the Chinese telecommunication companies already operating on our soil.
If China acts up we'll crush them. It's really that simple - they can't win a war against us. If you want to expand the margin we have against the Chinese, boost the naval budget and accept that spending four or five percent of the American GDP on defense is a necessity in the big bad world.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the rest of us are fighting the real war against the real enemy. Good day.
To quote Chuck D,
"Check yo' self, befo' you riggidy wreck yo' self!"
===========================
Warlord,
I think China knows they'll lose too. That is why they're attacking from a different angle:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5993156.ece
"INTELLIGENCE chiefs have warned that China may have gained the capability to shut down Britain by crippling its telecoms and utilities.
They have told ministers of their fears that equipment installed by Huawei, the Chinese telecoms giant, in BT’s new communications network could be used to halt critical services such as power, food and water supplies."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fLto4D3q6Q
Wednesday, October 3, 2007, Representative Thaddeus McCotter gives remarks on the House Floor warns of the U.S. security risk by allowing Huawei Technologies, a chinese company, to purchase telecommunication pioneer 3Com, which devleoops defense computer technology for the Pentagon.
=============================
China is the Main Enemy.
It's not just the Washington Times, Ahmed Rashid had an article in the National Interest on 10/27 in which he mentioned this.
Some good news next door...Afghan awakening??
What's Pashtu for Sawah
On China.
Pay them. In US energy natural resources - oil, coal, shale oil, and especially NG. Of which we just found a 1000 years worth. Strike a price between market price and cost, stretch it out over 2 decades. Then we don't have to have a war that would be mutually ruinous. We do owe them a trillion.
Uh, Armchair Warlord...I don't think the Chinese want to pay for us to "crush them". And of all the epithets I could come up for this Commander in Chief (gag) "Crusher" is not one of them.
I love the cyber-warfare angle, really. When every business deal by foreign companies is suspect, the Chinese must be climbing the walls with all the business we do in their country. After all, it's not like American telecoms would EVER cooperate with the government to do something less than above-board. And we'd NEVER tolerate it if word ever got out to the public about that kind of despicable behavior from American corporations!
Two can play at this game, you realize. Heh. Heh. Heh.
Bring it, China.
I agree. The Taliban or Al-Qaeda, or even the wider Salafi/Takfiri movement does not have the capability to undermine our cyber/communications infrastructure, they all just want to return to the Dark Ages. James Lilley was right all along. We need to stop wasting our time in these useless God forsaken regions and focus on China.
What did we gain in Iraq? What will we gain in Afghanistan? Let's just destroy Pakistan's nukes, if this is the only variable we are worried about. Iran is small potatoes. China will be the sum of all our fears. Let's focus our gaze on her.
Would you prefer to live in a world where China is prime?
American primacy is the name of the Game, gents.
I don't know how to eat with Chopsticks and I hate Chinese food (too fattening).
Mr. Escalante you are right, American primacy was lost when we decided to enter the Land between the Two Rivers and the Land of Pashtuns. We need to re-group and re-focus our efforts for the real and coming War. The war between East and West. China and the U.S. of A. May our Lord, the one true God, protect us.
China will win, because China has numbers, as well as know how.
Former U.S. Ambassador to China, James Lilley, was once asked,
How do they do it? How is their espionage different than, let's say, the Russians or the East Germans were?
It's different. It has the same objectives because they all go back to Sun Tzu in one form or another, or the fifth century B.C., who had the five kinds of spies. He wrote the book on spying. The Chinese have done espionage, spying, and intelligence work very well since the beginning. It's all through the romance of the Three Kingdoms. It's been a central part of their work.
They use different techniques. You don't find the case officer in a trench coat on the corner making a pass with an agent or laying down a dead drop, necessarily. What you find is the massive collection technique, the vacuum cleaner. Somebody once said -- I think this is in Nick [Eftimiades]'s book -- "If the Russians want to get certain sand from a beach that's special, they'll have a submarine come in at night. They'll put a crew infiltration. They'll get a bucket full of sand, and they'll take it back to the submarine, and leave." The Chinese will have 500 people having picnics on the beach, each picking up the sand in a small can, and bringing it back.
It's a different technique. They rely much more on contacts, persuasion. Only a small percentage is for actually clandestine work. They do that, but a very small percentage. It's very frustrating for people like the FBI who are looking for the classical intelligence man.
We should all just start learning Mandarin. Resistance is Futile.
I think maybe it was a lot more to do with the fact that Karachi has a significant Pashtun minority population, almost 3 million in a city of 15 million, most originally from the FATA and NWFP.
The Pashtuns run most of the trucking business in Pakistan and most of the bus transport in Karachi. I think it's safe to say that no other Pakistani city besides Quetta and Peshawar is a better home for AQ and Taliban types, either Afghan or Pakistan, than Karachi. Yes, even despite the hostile presence of the MQM, who dominate the city and are quite viciously anti-Pashtun.
Please let's stop our escapades in these worthless lands, and concentrate on China. Just because there's a now lucrative market within the Belt Way for Pop-Cen COIN and the New Age concepts of Warfare (i.e. the 1st Earth Bn, the Cullens, etc.), doesn't mean we should be frolicking in this BS. Let's set our cross hairs on the Main Enemy--the one's benefiting from our current bad decisions.
Uh...we owe them money. They'll go to war for two things for certain. 1) Taiwan (internal cohesion). Not pertinent here. 2) Energy. See string of pearls. and maybe 3) we owe them money. That's a big deal in Asia.
So lets bind them to us by paying off over a couple of decades with our abundant cheap energy that we currently won't go and get - they get paid off, world markets (and the dollar) stabilize, and avoid a stupid war that's a two way loser.
It would also let us wash our hands of the BS parts of the world that so occupy us.
Oh and I almost forgot that's two million US jobs, plus.
I will agree that China is a core problem, while these terrorist @ssholes with their medieval blood rituals are the fringes.
You'll pardon me while I wash the trace of Barnett out of my mouth.
Context:
- What happened? USA wins the Cold War.
- Result? China, Russia, et. al., come over to the market-economy side.
- New mission for the USA: Make the world safe for the new middle class consumers of these new market states.
- Why? Should China, Russia, et. al., fail in their capitalist experiments, then these nations could collapse into chaos (talk about your failed states and loose nukes !! ).
- That bad? Failure of China, Russia, et. al., makes for a world which is as -- or more -- dangerous than the world which existed before the end the Cold War.
- What is required? Transform the international environment (specifically the Third World) such that it might adequately meet the needs, wants and demands of this significantly increased number of new middle class consumers (China and India, approx 400 million, each, today).
- So, what are we looking at for the next 25 or so years? USA does small wars in the Third World in support of China, Russia, India, etc.; aiming for the successful and complete integration of these new market nations into the global economy.
- Conflict with China? Not likely. Not in the interests of either China or the United States -- both of whom are concentrating, primarily, on the larger problem of transforming the Third World.
- Al Qaeda, etc? This is to be expected. Pressure to transform the Third World (which requires radical societal change) is now commonly understood and expected to result in extremism and rebellious activity. We just adapt (COIN, etc) to deal with this understood problem and reality.
Adaptation:
We do "Smarter-Than-COIN" -- like in AFRICOM -- wherein, we establish good relations with the appropriate nations/governments and build up their military and police forces IN ADVANCE of the next big societal transformation push. This, so that THEY (the Third World nations) -- and not us (the USA) -- can deal with the extremist and rebellious activity which can result.
Also, in "Smarter-Than-COIN," we provide much aid, investment, development and infrastructure, etc., -- again early on and IN ADVANCE -- this, so that the societal transformation process can proceed more gradually; thereby, being more easily accommodated by these varying peoples whose lives, until now, had not been centered on nor devoted to meeting world market demands. This process, hopefully, minimizing or negating extremist and rebellious activity and the corrresponding need for foreign and/or host nation military and police involvement.
But bottom line: We intend to transform the Third World.
Say Goodbye to King Dollar - Brazil says no mas.
World soon to say no clothes.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02eb696e-d4f3-11de-8ec4-00144feabdc0.html
======================
@ Bill,
Other than lifting them from penury by free trade, and yes saying the answer to the post Imperial Collapse mid century turned out not to be aid (stolen, inflation, undermines local economies) but free markets and the rule of law - what was our "transformation" plan? Let the 3d world go the way of Ireland during the famine with 1/3 dead and the total population reduced from 7 million to under 3 million in 20 years?
Well IF I WAS RUNNING THINGS in retrospect, HELL YES. Die you nasty little failures.
Bill - there is no master plan. It's a lot scarier. The "elites" muddle thru day to day like the rest of us. The difference is the rest of us know to mind our own business is best, and one knows his own business best.
These transnational Ivy League Geebas don't.
That's the closest you'll get to a master plan.
Bottom line for real? WE are being transformed into the 3d World.
Because we have become way too Gay (both New Age 1st Earth Battalion ideas pushed by Exum, et al, and Gay Marriage in the Military).
Because all we really want to do is buy cheap Stuff we don't need.
Yes... We have become too Gay and too Stupid to care.
@ Bill
You obviously were either born with a Silver spoon up your arse and/or have never visited inner city, small town or country U.S.A.
Get out of N. Fairfax county, VA.
Travel, look around, talk, listen and you will realize America is becoming the 3rd World.
At what cost? I say screw the 3rd World, let's keep America strong. Land of the Brave, Home of the Free.
I will not stand watch while these poor, dumb, mendicant bastards drag our proud Nation to their level of idiocy and corruption.
You may think the 3rd World is the Whiteman's burden, it is not ours.
Wow things took a really weird turn here didn't they folks.
Rational people will note that the world economy is based largely on the emerging Chinese middle class, and that most fo their next crop of leader educated at American universities are far more interested in trade then they are with open conventional warfare. That's not to say that they will stop spooking any time soon, we certainly aren't going to stop.
But wow this brought out some rapid perceptions didn't it.
Bill - thank you for some rational thought. It was getting really scary there for a while.
Connect to China, convince them that if they want to expand this reach into resource rich areas they need to pull security detail there a well, reduce the burden on America as small wars firefighter and allow the US to pour that money back in to its own disconnected areas.
Ted:
Its not the Third World, per se, that is our burden.
Our burden, as a result of winning the Cold War, is the fast-growing developing countries, such as China, Russia and India -- all with nuclear weapons -- and all with rapidly expanding middle classes. We must make sure that these nations are successful in their new market-economy attempts. Helping to transforming the Third World is simply one of the critical tasks that we must to do in order to accomplish this mission.
Should these new capitalist nations -- who have trusted their fate to market ideas and market disciplines -- should these nations fail in their varied capitalist experiments, then we could get the most dangerous world imaginable (failed states [or failed great powers] and loose nukes on a most terrible scale).
Thus, the need for all market-nations to work together toward a common goal: to transform the Third World such that it might provide for the needs of these new (and the old) market-nations.
How the f*** did a post on pakistan devolve into china bashing. Did we civilians miss some secret china memo over the weekend.
Ummmm.... Maybe its because Im a crazy crazy leftist who loves communists and quite possibly is a closet homosexual, but I tend to see China as one of the greatest strategic reserves when it comes to a lot of issues, such as combating disappearing water and other enviromental issues, as well as peacekeeping forces in the coming 30 years of chaos. Its funny how enemy-centric the US way of thinking has become.
Now about the post, I think there is a major failure of understaning of an insurgency if one chooses to believe in a "central command" of Taleban/AQ, etc. Having participated in a couple of "insurgencies"/riots, it seems obvious to me that the Talebs have adapted to the situation like any network would: A loosely agreed upon MO as a set of guidelines, and below that an organic set of subgroups who act with operational freedom against common targets. What is really really worrying is that the Mumbai-network still seems to be operational.
Oh, and to commemorate the times when this blog cared for Iraq and the situation there, heres a link for ya: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/22/iraq-invasion-no10-cover-...
Money quote: "Interviewed for the postwar report drawn up by the MoD, Brigadier Bill Moore, commander of 19 Brigade, was asked: "Did you receive the correct level of advice for the nation-building you faced?" He replied: "We got absolutely no advice whatsoever. The lack of advice from the FCO [Foreign and Commonwealth Office], the Home Office and DFID [the Department for International Development] was appalling."
The "lessons learned" report stated: "Never again must we send ill-equipped soldiers into battle". However, many of the failures recounted in leaked documents and given in evidence to Commons committees, notably relating to equipment, were repeated in Afghanistan as inquests have shown."
How the hell did we get onto this?
I've been of the view that there are several strands of the Taliban and that it is correct to draw a broad distinction between the Afghan Taliban led from Quetta and the Pakistani Taliban associated with Waziristan and the Mehsuds. Karachi would appear to me to be a logical choice for the likes of Omar if he feels there could be too much heat in Quetta; Karachi is a huge, sprawling city of several million people which is easy to hide in. I would also say that info on Omar is likely to be pretty sketchy at best and if the CIA have indeed eavesdropped on one ISI guy telling another he's moving from Quetta to Karachi, that doesn't make it so. There again, the Pakistani authorities will, in certain circumstances, act against Afghan Taliban figures on their soil (http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1A1-D8UO10UG2.html), but the notions that A) Drone strikes could take place in and around Quetta and B) The ISI would sell Omar out, are both pretty fanciful in my view.
@Chris and all UK, Astan diehards et al...
Chris --Guessed you missed the Telegraph and Guardian yesterday. Before you have to chase an American Leader into the Kitchen to get the answer as your poor hapless PM did - here it is: We.Are.Leaving. Get ready for a post American World. You did want it, so here it is....
He wasn't "dithering" BTW. He knew he had about two of his base in the whole govt (including Exum) that were behind him doing all in COIN or even staying in Astan. He simply had to "dither" until the Right Wing - which would have propped him up on this - until they saw him finally in the true light of his being and realized he's no wartime leader, and hence we must retrograde and preserve our forces for another day.
And indeed we have. Nearly all the Hawks Repub or Dem have turned against the war, based almost entirely on a correct reading of the Commander. In any case Ft. Hood and KSM gang being given civilian trials within the same week renders the point of Afghanistan - protecting the Homeland - moot. We need to preserve that Army and bring them home - we shall almost certainly need them here.
Don't delude yourselves with CT plus or Joe Biden's Drone Army as viable options, more like risible. Defeat even with your Army intact has terrible consequences, in particular for the Homelands of the USA and UK. However elections have consequences, one of which is "The Global War on Terror is Over". He meant it. The Global Part is over. Now we do it locally.
I always wondered what the Hell the Libs were talking about when they said this is a matter for Law Enforcement and Intelligence. Now we know. They would not have invaded Astan, or anywhere but left 9/11 up to the Cops and Spies (both of whom had just failed). So now - as the defeated power - we give the conquering magnificent 19's puppet masters their equivalent of a ticker tape parade in NYC, with the ultimate aim of tossing some CIA, SOF and Bush administration officials to the International Left and their partners the Jihadi as the price of defeat.
The People have Spoken and now they must suffer.
Fnord, as far as disappearing water and other enviromental issues are concerned, I rather see China as a country neck-deep in such problems, and facing challenges which border on mass madness because of them.
Maybe by "great reserve" you mean that they will be forced to take a serious look at such problem sooner or later; and yes, they will have to.
But I am not sure whether their solutions will be applicable in the rest of the world, as I can imagine that they will involve a lot of governmental coercion.
Where did all the crazies come from? Good post though. Quite a balancing act for the ISI to keep the Afghan Taliban supported while the Pak army is going after the Pak Taliban.
Steve
M Kechlibar: Agreed, and that was my point. My hope is for a synergy between western green technology and chinese central policies of implementation once the chinese truly realize how far up shit creek they are. One of the few good points about a central command-structure for a country is that you can get a lot of shit done if you must.
P.S: IS Glen Beck really leading a american mini-revolution in a time of war? The man is bordering on treason.
http://salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2009/11/23/beck
@Fnord,
No Fnord, your stated preference for totalitarianism when it suits your aims aside, no Glenn Beck isn't leading a revolution, not a violent one anyway. He's part of a movement to take back the country from elitist, corrupt scum who will take this place into the 3d world in about ten years.
Fnord, Americans are supposed to challenge their government, they are also supposed to take responsibility for their own lives and govern themselves. Much of his criticism is aimed at a lazy, unattentive, apathetic citizenry who won't discipline themselves and live constantly beyond their means - as he did on the sub prime loan crisis. For instance. What you're seeing is him and others riding a self generated wave of citizens who started waking up and self-organizing (no, really) back around TARP, and started marching during Stimulus. They're awake, and while they don't like Bush's spending, especially TARP, this guy is driving them nuts.
Salon.com as a source on a right winger? Are you kidding me? That's like getting your primer on MLK from the KKK.
Go to the source if you must dabble...dabble I say in our politics. I'm sure you can find him on interwebs.
Treason in a Time of War....uhh....uhh...I dunno if you missed what the American Left was up to the last 8 years, in fact for much of the last 80 years, but I think it would be unwise for them to establish a precedent for prosecuting wartime dissent as treason.
And what your calling treason...or bordering...well, the Libs are gonna need a lot of GITMO's. I guess they can start filling it with their political opponents (which they long to do but do not dare) as they are emptying it of terrorists. But that's more than twice their own numbers, and would mean a lot of cops and military as well. Don't be misled by Salon and AM blog, Fnord. America is a Center - Right country. All the polls show it. About 20% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 36-39% Moderate (centrist).
Watch for the election results 2010/2012. Even with the registration reindeer games the Dems are planning (register every name on any gov list anywhere as a voter).
Fnord,
Yes it now treason to teach the Constitution and about the Federalist Papers here in the United States of America.
If you really want to freak out go to his web site and see his real radical stuff or you can keep on getting your info from the filter of Salon.
To Congress, The 5 Pledges
1. I believe in a balanced budget and therefore will vote for a freeze in government spending until that goal is realized.
2. I believe government should not increase the financial burden on its citizenry during a difficult economic times, therefore I will oppose all tax increases until our economy has rebounded.
3. I believe more than four decades of US dependence on foreign oil is a travesty, therefore I will support an energy plan that calls for immediately increasing usage of all domestic resources including nuclear energy, natural gas and coal as necessary.
4. I believe in the sovereignty and security of our country and therefore will support measures to close our borders except for designated immigration points so we will know who is entering and why. I will vehemently oppose any measure giving another country, the United Nations, or any other entity power over US citizens.
5. I believe the United States of America is the greatest country on earth and therefore will not apologize for policies or actions which have served to free more and feed more people around the world than any other nation on the planet.
Now you can really freak out over this agenda, which is from his radical treasonous web site.
Elf: Agreed that the US is a center right country. The dems would be far right in my country. Its a culture-shift. From my pov yàll of the tea-parties are freaking hysterical. Now if you all start fighting each other, that will really help the war-effort. Whoopdedo.
Really good post, Londonstani. One question - Karachi is surely a big and unruly city, but one count against the idea of hiding the Taliban leadership there is that it's rich in armed political groups that aren't necessarily supportive. Are the MQM on the Pakistani Government's side, the ISI's side, the Army's side, our side, the Taliban's side?
Perhaps I should run over to Hendon and ask them? Trick question, of course; the MQM is where it's always been, on its own side. Rather, who is it temporarily aligned with for its own tactical reasons at the moment?
Meanwhile, I disbelieve quite strongly in Huawei cyberwar stories. If China is a threat to Internet security (Internet operations and infosec people talk about Internet security - non-technical scaremongers say "cyberwar"), it's mostly as something like a failed state. Going by what the security community actually observes in terms of threat activity, Beijing is the world's most hacked city - the biggest concentration of compromised computers on earth, 5% of the total according to Sophos. (I wrote about this in 2007 and again more recently. I should really do an update with the latest round of numbers.) This is due at least in part to them importing vast amounts of crappy Microsoft product, frequently not paying for it, and therefore not getting their WinUpdates:-)
There is of course no contradiction between having the Great Firewall and special Internet police and having a national Internet riddled with every kind of computer depravity imaginable (I believe even the RBN ended up in China) - Italy has Tax Police, Afghanistan has Civil Order Police, the British Conservative Party is obsessed by national sovereignty, and the US has something called a Central Intelligence Agency. Ineffectual authoritarianism is the hallmark of institutional failure.
@Alex,
"Italy has Tax Police, Afghanistan has Civil Order Police, the British Conservative Party is obsessed by national sovereignty, and the US has something called a Central Intelligence Agency. Ineffectual authoritarianism is the hallmark of institutional failure."
I like. Chuckle out loud.
Think about this.
If you really did find a working formula that made you, say $1,000 a week online on average and it kept producing income no matter what, would you want to sell that idea to a bunch of noobs for $47 a pop and expect to retire on the proceeds? No way, man! It does not compute. It does not add up. And it does not make any sense to do that. I certainly don’t go shouting from the rooftops how I make my money online. Hell, I don’t want the competition taking a slice of my pie and neither would anyone who really does make good cash online.
www.onlineuniversalwork.com
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