Abu Muqawama: Post
Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS. Abu Muqawama retains the right to delete comments that include words that incite violence; are predatory, hateful, or intended to intimidate or harass; or degrade people on the basis of gender, race, class, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, or disability. In summary, don't be a jerk.
Afghanistan Policy Debate in the Boston Review
Nir Rosen and I had breakfast this morning and caught up over coffee and eggs, but that hasn't stopped us from going at each other in this month's Boston Review, which features an article by Nir and then a forum in which I participate along with Alex Thier, Andrew Bacevich, Aziz Hakimi, Syed Saleem Shahzad and Helena Cobban. In my contribution, I argue that Afghanistan will mark the end of what I'm calling the "Third Counterinsurgency Era". While small wars and insurgencies will continue to take place across the globe, the United States and other western powers will not soon stomach another large-scale intervention requiring counterinsurgency operations along the lines of Iraq and Afghanistan. I believe the United States and other great powers will continue to be challenged through "small wars", of course, but we are more likely to fight these wars by, with and through local forces rather than directly -- as in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is why I think foreign internal defense (FID), unlike COIN, is underdeveloped doctrinally in light of the challenges the United States and its allies will face in the future. I hope Brimley and the other new whiz kids at the Pentagon are thinking about that as they go about drafting the new QDR.
[The existing joint doctrine for FID can be found here (.pdf). One wonders whether or not we should convene a group of scholars and practitioners to scrub this in the way that we did FM 3-24 in 2005.]
Why don't you, Nagl,
Why don't you, Nagl, Mullaney (and Sedney & Vickers peeps) get together and do exactly that (scrub it?)
No one is better suited, nor has the requisite background than yourself, the aforementioned and a select few left unnamed.
While small wars and
While small wars and insurgencies will continue to take place across the globe, the United States and other western powers will not soon stomach another large-scale intervention requiring counterinsurgency operations along the lines of Iraq and Afghanistan.
And from your article....
The one lesson we have all—military officer, politician, and journalist alike—learned from Iraq and Afghanistan, though, is that it is best to avoid such conflicts in the first place.
Therein lies the rub. If you could perfectly identify every conflict before you entered it "Identify the true nature of the war itself" maybe we could make that assumption. But with such a power beyond our capabilities, not to mention the political pressure to put boots on the ground that more often than not appears anytime we are targeted by a serious attack......
How many times has someone picked a scab after shaving and the dang thing won't stop bleeding? I wish I could be as sure as you, but I can't. That said, we fought the Soviets by proxy for years, though it's a different kind of war(s) we are fighting now, so if FID is underdeveloped doctrinally its not because we didn't do it before, its because those lessons aren't back at the forefront... yet.
"On the other hand, the
"On the other hand, the United States has, unlike France or the United Kingdom, usually fought its counterinsurgency campaigns—in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan—on behalf of host nations."
Come on. Do you feel that Karzai, or the S. Vietnamese government ever had any kind of legitimacy outside their own little circle? A major flaw in US foreign pol thinking is that you seem to take for granted that your Potemkin facades are accepted by the rest of the world, like you are clever conmen and the rest of us are just natives waiting for them shiny bangles. In my experience, cyniscism against the US abroad is more inclined towards the paranoid side than towards the forgiving. What is the difference between supporting a Quisling regime and being occupiers yourselves? You let 750 000 kids starve in Gaza while prattling about humanism. You call kidnappers evil while renditioning away. You torture, maim and burn while any opposition is labeled terrorism. Why the f**k should anyone believe you?
(And Im aware that this is not always even a truth.)
But the fact is that once
But the fact is that once you get down to the rifle squad, COIN does not make any sense. Soldiers, whose greatest concern is living through their deployments, are being asked to mix Wyatt Earp and Mother Theresa.
High school grads, mostly ex-military or jocks who played high school sports, are able to mix violence and compassion everyday, just look at your local police force. With the proper indoctrination this can be done.
The American military and policy establishments are incapable of doing COIN. They lack the curiosity to understand other cultures and the empathy to understand what motivates people.
The same high school jocks/former military types go home to safe suburban neighborhoods after work, but are still able to study, understand and respect other cultures and peoples as part of work. You don't have to drink 3 cups of tea or marry their ugly daughters to do your work.
"marry[ing] their ugly
"marry[ing] their ugly daughters" and "drinking 3 [or more] cups of tea" with "them" is exactly what Al Qaeda [and maybe the Chinese winning all sorts of concessions] are doing, which kinda shows where the American level of COMMITMENT lies-- and remember, "the most committed wins".
I ain't marrying no backward
I ain't marrying no backward thinking dirty, no pussy shaving, no femine wash knowin' haji's daughter in some bum fuck town no where. I'd rather make love to fnord's "HOT" Nigerian girlfriend, than lay in bed with these dirrrty hoes who have probably been de-virginized by their own fathers.
Why are we always mentioning
Why are we always mentioning fnord's girlfriend in these forums? Is she relevant to the wider Pop-Centric COIN debate?
Fnord's the one that always
Fnord's the one that always seems to slip mention his girlfriend in every discussion. Not really sure why.
Weird. I mentioned my ex for
Weird. I mentioned my ex for the sake of Elf, who was talking about Nigeria, in another post. Think Ive mentioned exes of mine 3 times during 3 years. And now suddenly its an issue? To mention private shit? Oh well, if it pleases you all: "Im just a closet fairy who pretends to have girlfriends. In reality, Im all hot for manflesh". Never had a girlfriend, never will.
lol.
So, back to arguments? ANyone trying to fit Gaza into the COIN envelope, please?
Frankly, I myself am sick
Frankly, I myself am sick and tired of hearing about fnord's purportedly hot girlfriend. Unless he posts pictures of his so called hot girlfriend, he should be barred from ever mentioning her or any other "girlfriends" on this forum.
... there he goes mentioning
... there he goes mentioning his "girlfriend" and "exes" again ...
how many times did col. gian gentile or SNLII mention their exes or current gfs on this forum? i rest my case... why? because nobody cares! your "exes" or "gfs" don't matter in these discussions. unless, you are trying to prove something to yourself, which goes back to the whole concept of 'who the fuck cares?!!!'... even the carebears don't care.
If we take fnord's level of
If we take fnord's level of commitment to the constant, consistent, inopportune, ill advised mentions of his past or/and current beaus in these forums, the U.S. military, intelligence, and diplomatic establishments may learn quite a bit from this kind of tenacity and persistence. We should delve deeper into this man's psyche to examine further his intentions and motivations for always slipping the mention of these irrelevant, tangental persons in his life, whether real or imaginary to very important national security discussions.
sheesh, does CNAS employ
sheesh, does CNAS employ hasbara spam-dogs to obscure critiscism?
Wow. Just....fascinating.
Wow. Just....fascinating. Makes me feel important. Wtf?
Why don't we try to convince
Why don't we try to convince the Chinese government that it is in their best interest to open more massage/accupressure parlors throughout the Middle East. We already all agree that the majority of these Muslims bastards want to destroy our way of life, mostly due to their own inability to get laid. Their culture and religion makes human coupling more difficult than it really is. Maybe they'll stop coming over here if we send women over to their countries, instead of soldiers. If China can export their surplus of accupressure massage therapists into the cities and towns of Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, more young Muslim men will be happy. We can begin by subsidizing their visits to these parlors (20 dollars per visit should do), then wean them slowly so they'll have a reason to work, save and spend their money. We'll be helping expand China's service industry, while finally enjoying the peace dividend postponed for so long from us. It's a win-win situation, since Chinese massage parlors emit very low carbon footprint, consistent with our climate change partnership with the Chinese government.
Prof. Ching, We are
Prof. Ching,
We are constantly looking for new ideas to include to our wider counterinsurgency strategy in the Near East. This is the first we've read of this Chinese Massage/Accupressure program. We've already contacted our Chinese counterparts regarding this idea. If you can please send a quick policy memo on this subject, with a few more facts and figures, we would greatly appreciate it. We'll contact you directly. Please send your memo to the White House and Mrs. Pelosi's office for further evaluation. Thank you.
There is a lot more
There is a lot more happening in Afghanistan than just Al Qaeda. You can say CT is the right anwer if Al Qaeda is the only problem, it is not. There is no standing army, FID is not an option.
For Afghanistan COIN makes sense, still. Two things justify COIN in my mind. Different from Yemen or Iraq.
1) Pakistan. They are a nuclear power. It is in our interest to stablize.
2) Even though the military is steering clear of the opium issue, COIN is an enabler to reducing production. It has not been discussed much, but impacting the drug trade is fundamental. Reducing a revenue source for terrorism world wide. CT just does not address the drug issue. DEA is addressing the problem by interdiction of trade routes. This action needs to be combined with alternative food crops.
I have supported both Iraq and Afghanistan wars from the beginning and still do. The job needs to be finished. Our military has never made a very good police force. It has been trained for fighting large scale wars, bringing maximum pain to the enemy. The leadership needs to provide a role model for the troops. If the leadership believes in COIN, the rest will follow.
That is management 101, define the goal and the expected behavior through out the ranks. Re-enforce the behavior with incentives. Use the right carrot and stick, you will get anything out of a person/organization. The military is about teamwork, they can complete the mission.
As for the future, I do not have a crystal ball. Do not know what the next war will look like. FARC is not going away quicky in SAmerica, if anything they are trying to make a come back. Would not put COIN to bed yet. Compared to GDP, Iraq and Afghanistan is not a large sum. Think the American public is shell shocked from the economic problems and would like to get back to a more normal life. Hate to say it, right now the war is employing a lot of people. There are going to be a lot of military folks looking for jobs when they hit the states again.
The only way to truly win a war, is to avoid one (that includes FID). That is were Zak puts his money.
PS....I would be more concerned with Africa (Somalia and nieghbors) than I would be with Yemen. Why? More land space, easier to get into and out of. Has the same access to shipping channels.
Nicely put, Zak. But what
Nicely put, Zak. But what is your opinion regarding fnord's constant mentioning of his girlfriends on this blog? And most importantly, do you believe him?
If Fnord wants to present
If Fnord wants to present his views, I will continue to respect them if he respects others. I have read some of Fnords speaking points and he puts a lot of time and thought into them. I suspect he is young and wants quick results, part of modern life.
I do not think that Fnord respects his girl friend, real or imaginary. That is between himself and his partner.
Growing your mind is a lot more lasting than growing your penis. Both can be fun, depends on how you want people to judge you. Later in life do you want to be remembered or forgotten? Most of the people that I know that have earned the most respect are quiet professionals. Talking to them, you would never know their past. Once they respect you, they share experiences, then you are floored by their commitment.
It does not belong in this blog.
I find this article somewhat
I find this article somewhat misleading and ahistorical in the way it reifies what would be more accurately termed "population-centric counterinsurgency" and fails to mention not only pre-1945 small wars not fought by the French, but also tactical alternatives to pop-centric COIN more broadly. After abstracting numerous other small wars from history, I can see how you can make the case for a "third generation" of counterinsurgency, but this seems about as sound from a historiographical point of view as notions such as "fourth generation war" (which is to say not very sound). Commanders fighting against insurgents in the Gallic Wars, Spain in Napoleonic Wars, or the numerous small wars fought by the British during the Victorian era all practiced counterinsurgent tactics of a sort. The rub is that including these disparate cases makes a Hegelian progression from Bugeaud to FM 3-24 difficult to argue.
4th Generation, 3rd
4th Generation, 3rd Generation just sounds coooool. Like Web 2.0 and 3.4. or Lethal Weapon I to IV. Makes thinking simple. Simple things are easier to sell. Why do you think we're in Afghanistan, when we know there's no benefit to be had? It's a 6th Generation hustle, 1st Generation was when Shaneekwa promised me a blowjob for 20 bucks, but her pimp asked me for 200 bucks for spending time with his 1st Generation ho.
"I do not think that Fnord
"I do not think that Fnord respects his girl friend, real or imaginary. "
wtf is this? The daily enquirer? quite strange to see folks discussing some trumped up point as if itb was serious. The Michael Jackson syndrome, methinks.
OOOoooh, a shiny object!
Me thinks fnord is a Homo.
Me thinks fnord is a Homo.
Of Course Fnord is gay.
Of Course Fnord is gay. That´s why he is so attracted by virile, beardwearing islamists. it´s the same homoeroticism that flourished in Nazi Germany
JH
Andrew: You seem to have
Andrew: You seem to have reached the same conclusion that I have (which I explained at your November 22nd post: "A Tale ofTwo Talibans" -- see Bill @ 11:56AM and Bill @ 12:37PM) re: the way that small wars and insurgencies will be dealt with for the future, to wit: via PROACTIVE measures (to wit: do FID preparations and groundwork NOW -- to beef up host military and police capabilities -- this, so that these host nation (Third World) capabilities will be available IN ADVANCE of the next societal transform push; with resulting disruptive pressures and potential for adverse reactions (insurgencies).
Do you also agree with the underlying root cause of these problems (explained also at Bill @6:35PM this post), to wit: The need to transform the Third World, such that it might provide for the needs of the nuclear-armed new market-economy great powers (China, Russia and India); this strategic task being undertaken to help ensure that these great powers -- who have trusted their fate (and ours?) to market ideas and disciplines -- have a good chance of getting their capitalist house in order (and, thereby, not catastrophically failing -- which would be to the upmost detriment of the whole world)?
I think this President is
I think this President is getting ready to seriously escalate on somebodies ass, the buzz in the Media since the panty bomber is starting to smell like victory. It was probably inevitable that a progressive President (or most Presidents the last century) would discover their real powers are in their warmaking powers. War is what made Wilson, T.Roosevelt, FDR great. Had he won, it might have made LBJ great.
The whole Hill. That smell...it smelt like victory.
In other stinky news.....
Fnord only takes the bait...er...when he is accused of being gay.
And in some real interesting news....James Ellroy is coming out of semi retirement to write the true real life story - bebop style - of CNAS and it's swinging gay (I mean Happy) Scholar Commando's. With Rachel Maddow providing the tormented love that dare not speak it's name or she'd lose her fan base. Also starring terrorist hunter R.C, and AM's other other other alter ego Prof John Ching.
Afghanistan policy debate
Afghanistan policy debate boston review.. Super :)
Add your comment