Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS.
Big time attack in Rawalpindi today, where Londonstani went for eid prayers a couple of days ago. The BBC is reporting 32 dead in an attack on a mosque. People are calling relatives frantically. The mobile network is creaking under the strain of the extra calls.
After the eid holidays, militants seem to have decided to let everyone know they are still a force to be reckoned with. Maybe they had a point to prove after recent comments by government officials that they had scored major successes in the Waziristan operation, which were then repeated by senior US and British officials.
Pakistani TV station Geo News is saying that at least two attackers entered a mosque used by army officers during Friday prayers and started firing on worshippers and throwing hand grenades.
More details and analysis to come, but initially it looks like a message from militants that the army's efforts haven't dimmed their capacity to carry out the sort of well executed and professional attacks they used in the storming of GHQ in the same city in October.
Interior Ministry Rehman Malik has just given a press conference where he reitered bland statements along the lines of "We are going after the people responsible".. "these people aren't Muslims. They attacked a mosque!! etc etc" It looks like he failed to answer the urgent concerns of journalists who asked about whether this is related to Obama's decision to send more troops to Afghanistan.
The journalists also wondered whether Shia processions to mark Muharram in the next few weeks will be targeted by militants. Londonstani is in Lahore today, a big Muharram procession takes place here every year. Local people in the old city, where thousands of Shia mark the occassion in narrow streets were saying they have received drect threats.
Is anyone else thinking Algeria 1990s?
UPDATE: Geo is reporting a general is among the dead. It's worth keeping in mind that Geo has a habit of reporting first and checking later.
Well Algeria's skies weren't filled with UAV's with missles. :)
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/world/asia/04drones.html?_r=1&hp=&adxn...
Hopefully, with some time to reflect, AM can respond in the future to this article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/world/asia/04drones.html?_r=1&hp=&adxn...
Other than the tag line that sniper teams are operating in Pakistan (which should actually make some people happy since they are more precise than a Hellfire) it's driving home the fact that UAV strikes are being ramped up. If there is one criticism of reading AM for the last year its that he's not factored in the political effect on, and of, tactical and operational decisions in AfPak. Predator strikes sell on Main St and in Congress. They are quantifiable numbers that people can point to see "progress" and while its important to emphasis the difficulties and risks we face, its also important that the people back home occassionally learn of the successes that occur. No one will keep up a fight indefinitely without some prospect of success (and on a side note after seeing Greg Mortenson last night he is the most relentlessly positive person I've ever met, and listening to the older "liberal" ladies behind me exclaim out loud that Gasp! the Chairman of the JCS and General Patraeus had embraced his work! was both hilarious and a reminder that not all good news is propaganda).
Offering tactical, operational and strategic advice in a vaccum, without factoring in what realistically can be supported domestically is an incomplete picture IMO and somewhat of a diservice. They are conjoined twins that cannot be seperated. Add to that at least some evidence that the strikes have not resulted in an inordinate number of civilian casualties, and that there is actually, at some level, support amongst those living there, I wonder if AM needs to revisit the issue, or at least the relationship between CT and COIN in this fight.
And on a final note, I want to bang my head on a table when I hear questions about the "legality" of these strikes. It's a political question, not a legal one. Sometimes lawyers forget that the real world exists outside the 4 corners of courtroom, the law is not an alternate reality, it supports reality, but its not an endstate in and of itself.
But at least Geo does report, in a way that is both relatively independent and (most importantly) credible to average city-dwelling Pakistani. There's a Pashtun guy who runs a programme called "Jirga". He recently devoted an episode to 9/11 conspiracy theories, with lots of rather damning footage (including some of the attackers themselves). I saw first hand that this programme was extremely effective in convincing in a standard educated Pakistani - much more than anything a gora might say.
"these people aren't Muslims. They attacked a mosque!! etc etc"
I'm pretty sure this is the intended effect. The loonies want to cause maximal damage and chaos while preserving plausible deniability wrt the unwashed masses (their dedicated reserve army). The unwashed masses will think: "this can't be the Talibans doing this, they're pious people, they would never do something so obviously haraam as fighting in a mosque".
Or...
Well...
Maybe...
Maybe just this time, the conspiracy nuts might actually be right.
You were talking about Algeria. If your remember, there was a lot of noise about the supposed responsibility of the Army in some of the most obnoxious massacres - even among foreign commenters (at least in France). I wonder if we'll start seing something similar in this case.
As the comment above remarked: are you implying that some of these attacks are taking place with Army forbearance if not active encouragement, support or participation? (IIRC there were frequent reports from Algeria that suggested this; massacre takes place in a village 1km from an Army base, and the Army only turn up 45 minutes after it's over...that sort of thing).
Also, I suspect that a mosque is a slightly softer target than GHQ?
Hey Londonstani,
These dispatches are fantastic. I hope you are getting paid for this stuff, cause it would be deserved.
I have a question, though.
Is "corruption" the proper pashto translation for the phrase "institutional bias"?
Thanks, twice.
"Is anyone else thinking Algeria 1990s?"
You and AM commenter Omar, if I have him right. I don't know enough about either place.
Mind you, I'm not seeing too many other ways out either.
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/Afghanistan_Dyna...
Please tell me this is a joke. Please.
Check out http://pakistankakhudahafiz.wordpress.com/ to get the ISI version.
Meanwhile, i posted the following comment on chapati mystery and think its relevant here:
The army armed and trained half a million terrorists (some directly, many through subcontractors). It encouraged an entire cultural shift towards Jihadism and extremism. It then lost control of the situation after 9-11. BUT instead of stepping back and saying we were wrong (not necessarily publicly, I am just speaking of saying it to themselves) and need to do many things now to fix the mess, they have always pursued a schizophrenic policy where they will abandon some of their former proxies and kill them, while keeping others for future use AND retain crucial parts of the previous paradigm of zero-sum competition with India, playing profitable games with America, retaining monopoly over most of Afghanistan and so on.
As a result, there is continued confusion within Pakistan about who is fighting who and for what reason and this confusion is hampering the war effort. A good section of the military is still working on the Zaid Hamid and Ahmed Qureshi paradigm without noticing that Zaid Hamid and company themselves believe that the future consists of massive and extremely violent wars against India and other powers...wars they hope to win, but wars which to any sane person must seem MUCH worse than the current mess. The army high command may or may not all be in the Zaid Hamid mould, but their continued short sighted encouragement of this line of psyops is creating massive confusion and will make their job harder, not easier.
The army itself will be better off if it faces the facts and changes some of its fundamental assumptions. Let us, for the sake of argument, accept that all these attacks are carried out by jihadis acting on the orders of India, Israel and America. What is the army doing to clarify the situation and fight back? What is the plan by which these three great powers and their jihadi agents are to be defeated? I submit that no coherent plan can be made because the accusation itself is incoherent.
I am not saying the US or India could not be involved in any terrorist acts. Pakistan is not a total outlier in its use of terrorism as a tool of policy. Others can and do play this game. But the question remains, what is the policy? why do these powers oppose the army? What can be done to stop them? What is in the best interests of the people of Pakistan? on all these questions, the army's response has been and remains unclear. And it remains so because they insist on having their cake and eating it too. Either they throw in their lot with the jihadists and the taliban and deal with USA and India as best as they can, or they fully switch sides and try to find a way to cooperate WITH the US and India AND with civilian politicians, against the jihadi worldview. There is no middle way that is going to work....
@ Is this a joke:
Jesus Christ. Look at page 29 of that beast.
@ Is this a Joke,
Well, some of us have been saying get rid of the Pentagon for years. Also that we have way too many Officers and far too many Generals.
And you are all far, far, far too educated. Only an over educated fool would come up with slides like that....
If it's a joke, it's on us. Glad I'm no longer going downrange. Enjoy the next 18-24 months/years, guys.
I bet POTUS liked it though, appeals to his vanity and his natural need to cause mass confusion, with so many groups going pell mell to and fro.
Nice presentation. It's real, isn't it? Holy Fucking Man Love Thursday.
Let's start with slide 7, more coalition aid will lead to development...thereby leading to potential sympathy towards the "Central Govt" (gag, gasp, cough)... and from then all good things flow.
Or...OR...they watch the "Government" steal it, again....thereby opening up more potential "fissures" in society....
You have to be kidding me. If we want that place to get anywhere near what slide endgame(s) envision, we have to directly administer every level of that society for the next 18 years, followed by a 10-15 year handoff, followed 30 years of protectorate. I'm just guessing based on the info I gather. I normally would be more humble. But since reason is clearly fled....
I know they stop OER's at the Flag Rank level. Apparently they stop drug screening too.
Uh, guys downrange? Blue?
لا إله إلا الله ومحمد رسول الله. الممر الآمن من فضلك.
Remember the FEMA evacuation plan. Run Motherfucker, Run.
Add your comment