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As militant violence continues to claim lives throughout Pakistan, the job of finding answers is made impossible by the near-total inability of public opinion to arrive at some common understanding of its root causes.
In recent weeks, suicide bombs and attacks have claimed between a couple and dozens of lives nearly everyday. The smaller death tolls hardly make it onto the front pages of the local newspapers let alone the international press. The ones most people hear about are the audacious Rawalpindi mosque style suicide-commando attacks or the large bombs like the one today near Waziristan that is reported to have killed nearly 90 people watching a local sporting event.
If the first step to finding a solution to any given problem involves understanding what you face, Pakistan is no where near figuring out how to deal with the spiraling conflict inside the country. This blog has visited the issue of conspiracy theories before. But Londonstani found himself reading a Guardian article on the same issue in Iran that he felt made points that are even more salient in the context of Pakistan. If conspiracy theories cripple Iranians' ability to unravel their politics, in Pakistan they cripple the country's ability to deal with the forces tearing it apart.
It will come as no surprise to anyone that follows Pakistani affairs to hear that popular perception holds India/the United States/Israel ultimately responsible for extremist violence. Some even claim the army and the government carry out attacks to further their own political aims. The Guardian article makes the point that although Iranians have historical reasons for suspecting foreign interference <!--EndFragment--> in their affairs, those interventions could not have taken place without a certain level of support or approval from large sections of Iranian society. Basically, foreign intelligence services were not making facts on the ground out of thin air, they were manipulating factors which already existed to try to affect an outcome that was desirable to their own policy aims.
Just as Iranians weren't purely passive bystanders in their history, Pakistan is home to very real factors that feed into what is happening in the country. The conspiracy theories running rampent in Iran and Pakistan, have one thing in common, they allow the audience to believe they have no say, no effect and ultimately no responsibility for what happens to them.
Pakistan has an extremism problem. This is not just limited to the estimated few thousand fighters in FATA (whether they are foreign or Pakistani). The language of extremism is slowly permeating society. This was starkly illustrated to Londonstani when he had dinner with a middle class professional Pakistani friend who told him while drinking a beer that his relatives who observed full veiling and had thrown out their televisions, computers and hi-fi systems were the kind of people who had the strength and moral authority to "fix Pakistan".
However, there are people from all walks of life who recognise that what's happening is a problem.
"The common belief in Pakistan is that Islamic radicalism is a problem only in FATA, and that madrassas are the only institutions serving as jihad factories. This is a serious misconception. Extremism is breeding at a ferocious rate in public and private schools within Pakistan’s towns and cities," said writer and academic Pervez Hoodbhoy in an article from last year.
The problem is that the immense mistrust of Western motives means anyone expressing such views risks being labelled a traitor and becoming a target. Even religious leaders are not immune from being singled out.
The authorities say that today's attack was probably motivated by the stand locals took against militants in their area. Londonstani suspects though that this was more about the effect militants were having on local political structures rather than a difference in ideology. In a country beset by economic and political catastrophe, the extremist narrative and world view provides easy answers. It asks people who have little control over their surroundings to amend the only thing they still have the power to change - their personal behaviour. By doing this, they earn the intervention of the only actor with the power to improve their reality - God.
Conspiracy theories are born when people have little knowledge of the workings of the powers that control their lives. In Pakistan, anyone looking to enact change - a foreign actor or the government itself - has to overcome conspiracy theories. Without this, money and effort spent by government and organisations will be wasted and probably counterproductive. The answer will involve improving transparency in political processes and persuading politicians and army officers not to stoke the conspiracy pot for short term political expediency... which is, of course, easy to say.
This is a pertinent and good analysis of the situation and problem. I too have tried to wake up my fellow Muslims/Pakistanis to the threat within but I think believing in conspiracy theories is easier for a nation lazily happy to play victim. I welcome your comment on:
http://imran.com/media/blog/2009/10/evil-taliban-vs-pakistan-what-side-a...
regards
Imran
I am in the process of reading "The Fourth Star". I am at the part of the book were Sadr City hits the fan.
Jeepers, if Islam can not figure themselves out, then who can????
Think we need to call back the troops and send in the Psychiatrists. No dis-respect intended.
It's awful, but hardly surprising. Those people have been lied to and exploited for decades. And, to make matters worse, isn't the transparency issue an international problem? I've often wondered to what extent are Pakistanis and other non-Westerners aware that many Westerners don't trust their governments. Particularly nowadays that information is so readily available. I fear what we are witnessing here is the fruit of 20th century cynical politicsand the the growth of massive intelligence communities in the West and elsewhere. Who knows what all those vegetable soup groups are up to? Could be perfectly innocent, but when you don't tell people what's going on, the rumor mills start up. In Virginia lots of people are convinced the hills are hollow and Dick Cheney has a Dr. Evil bunker outside of Sugar Grove, WV Everybody everywhere promises transparency, but nobody delivers. Leaders, domestic and foreign, don't trust their populations, and at some point the game has to give. When things get really bad late-term altruistic acts, like Kerry-Lugar, do no good. Give out food and people will accuse you of poisoning them, which munching on the free rice. The only solution is for completely new leadership: economic, military, and civilian political. That obviously won't be happening, so I see nothing good coming out of this situation.
This is an issue of poor governance, not radical Islam. The reason why Western populations aren't as radicalized is due to a still high standard of living for the poor and working poor based on the credit economy, which is weakening, and subsidized cheap fast food. Walmart collapse and see how quickly the US population gets radicalized, particularly if we don't get anything more solid and useful out of DC then the inane ramblings of Barak B. Wonderboy (he really made the situation worse with his speechifying in 2009) and the insane opposition (Liebernut and Johnny McBombBomb). Sounds funny, but I am not joking. I've got some straight up Anglo-Celtic Protestant relatives that are just as socially maladjusted as any talib (no hyperbole here), but thankfully for now they can still buy cheap stuff from Walmart.
Insofar as blowing people and buildings up. Westerners might not be suicide bombers, but we can and will blow people up given the right mythological grievances, remember the Klan.
As always, nice to read your posts, many thanks for the work.
Sounds like Pakistan is falling apart.
I guess the real question is whether the worst-case scenario can be avoided at this point and if not, how we are going to put the hammer down when the flag of jihad flies over Islamabad.
We have the same problem in the UK. My usually sane barber was even theorising about Amir Khans excellent victory against Salita, basically saying he was some kind of western agent. Amir Kahn! who you'd think would be a unifying figure, a good role model for all young people, because he's popular with all Britons is dismissed. Granted there are a fair share of real conspiracies and dodgy goings- on in boxing, but Amir Khan for gods sake, I couldn't believe it. 1/4 of UK muslims believe 7/7 was an inside job, 9/11, even more. These conspiracy theories are dangerous because it means a community doesn't have to take any responsibility. Saying that, I think conspiracy theories are becoming more popular with all people, not just muslims, because of general western dissolusionment with politics and the economy.
The problem is the PAK-Punjabi feudal mindset and the identity crisis the state is suffering from--related to former, they simply cannot get along with anyone. Remember East Pakistan and the Bengali's...and the ongoing Baloch uprsing(s) and so on. And related to the latter, they have been (and thanks to PAKjabistani ISID) moving towards the (as noted by Mr Pervez Hoodbhoy--a brave Shia in PAKjabistan) Saudi-isation for past few decades: The PAKjabi Army requires officers to read 'The Quranic Concepts of War' and the security apparatus as a whole needs militants to do their work...this has led to the mushrooming of numerous terrrorist groupings in PAKjabistan (as noted by Dr Ashely Tellis and others ): Anti-West (AQ, Central Asia Groups and increasingly PAKjabi groups), Anti-India (PAKjabi groups), Anti-Shia, Taliban Movement (AFG and PAK (to include Punjabi), Kashmiri-Focused (ethnic Kashmiris only)...and not related to all of this are the Ethno-Nationalist struggles (Baloch, Sindhi, Gilgit & Baltistan, Mohajirs, MQM).
In short, the country is cracking on the periphery and we need to accept this...which leads to the cracks within the PAKjabi Army. We keep hearing about rogue elements in the Army--what does that mean really?
Since we all know the U.S. really is meddling in Pakistan, it seems disingenuous to label that a "conspiracy theory."
Whatever the underlying, local problems may be, having Blackwater operatives, drone flights, etc. running around, and the U.S. Embassy meddling in elite politics, can't possibly give Pakistanis a sense of empowerment in dealing with their own problems, in their own way.
Shouldn't the U.S. just pull out and let Pakistanis work out their own destiny? Miraculously, that seems to have worked in Latin America, after decades of unstable military regimes sponsored by the U.S.
Londonstani said..."Conspiracy theories are born when people have little knowledge of the workings of the powers that control their lives."
In the case of Iran, the leaders are in full knowledge of what controls their lives. Your point is not a universal statement, sometimes very knowledegable and powerful people shift blame. People without knowledge repeat what they hear and if they hear it enough they start to believe it.
Sounds like power is the currency in this discussion, not hard cash. The motivation is who gains the most and by what means. My understanding is that the PAK military is the major power and the government is a satellite. America gets its share of their attention with the aid it provides PAK. Sure to have the appearance of American influence, but PAK is its own country. It is a matter of credibility.
What will it take for the PAK military and government to attain credibility? Can they?
I seen and heard of giving people money, work projects, and other ways to improve peoples lives as solutions to reduce violence. Usually, these measures are short lived. Funded from outside the country, once the aid goes away, the bad behavior returns.
The only lasting solution has to come from the country's population. Is there a universal solution that people will accept?
Just out of curiosity. Radical Islam has linkage with Zionism. What was the most important trigger for today's Radicalism?
1) The creation of the Isreali State?
2) Radicalization of Iran?....I consider this as the point in time that the Shah was removed from power.
3) Iraq's attack on Kuwait?....This seems to be a flash point for AQ, at least to me. American boots on the ground.
The above is sort of a root cause analysis. I could be way off on my speaking points. My own little conspiracy is that Iran is helping to fund the violence, so my pick would be #2. There could be petro-dollars from other countries too (including US sources). Over the last twenty years, oil has put a lot of money in the hands of the ME. With out the money, no one could afford funding the current wars. Stop the money, reduce the pace of the violence. Put a plug in Iran's mouth(note, that is not a slug....just take away their influence in the ME).
@eatbees
Equivocating nonsense. The United States is "meddling" in Pakistani affairs for the sole purpose of supporting the Pakistani state against forces which would tear it apart and enslave its people. A functional, democratic and free Pakistan is very much in the American interest (and the Pakistani interest), notwithstanding the claims of Pakistani conspiracy theorists.
I don't know, folks. I'm up for thinking about the care and feeding of extremist attitudes and conspiracy theories, but it seems to me that in the case of Pakistan we need to hold off on this until we're sure the importance of the Indian question has been fully accounted for.
What is the Indian question? Basically, it involves Pakistan's place in the world next to its vastly larger and richer neighbor. Its most important aspect has to do with how the Pakistani security services see their role. Is India a simple fact of life, a trading partner, an imminent security threat, or an abiding rebuke to the founding ideal of Pakistan as a Muslim state? Is Pakistan best off pursuing rivalry with India, avoiding conflict wherever it can, or seeking to profit from its proximity to an ascending regional power?
To the outside observer, the idea of Pakistan as a rival to India is obviously idiotic. Canadians and Mexicans don't see their countries as geopolitical rivals of the United States; Uruguay doesn't orient its foreign policy around a rivalry with Brazil. The reasons aren't difficult to grasp. For much smaller, poorer nations to adopt a permanently adversarial posture toward giant neighbors would require a vast and permanent diversion of resources into their armed forces and intelligence services, ensuring among other things that they would always stay poorer. It would also warp their relations with other nations around the world, and provide a never-ending parade of perceived slights and snubs as most of those nations naturally gave priority to their relationship with the much larger country in the rivalry. Finally, a smaller, poorer country committed to an adversarial posture toward a much larger neighbor would always face the temptation to take shortcuts on the road to maintaining its desired geopolitical position. Nuclear weapons are a prize shortcut. So, too, can be sponsorship of terrorism. Neither of these things is useful for much of anything else, and both carry with them very considerable risk.
This is pretty much the course Pakistan has chosen since Partition, long before the United States took an active interest in the region. The reasons it has done so, sadly, are just as easy to grasp as the reasons similarly situated countries elsewhere have not. The Pakistani security services want and need a vast and permanent diversion of resources toward themselves. Several whole corps of army officers and intelligence operatives would not enjoy the privileged position they do in Pakistan today without it. Snubs and slights, real and imagined, they certainly resent but would not do without if they could; I take this to be a kind of treasured inheritance from the later days of the British Raj, when Muslims in British India feared and resented the majority Hindus and reacted bitterly to statements or even gestures that seemed to show favoritism to them or implied that Hindus were the most important constituency in British India.
And the Pakistani security services some time ago came to revel in the shortcuts to geopolitical status. Nuclear weapons, obviously; they may cost vast amounts of money Pakistan cannot afford and be a permanent nightmare to keep away from people who think the way to serve Islam is to set one off and see what happens, but they bring prestige -- not real prestige, the kind that comes from respect accorded by other countries, but the prestige any small time hoodlum feels when the neighborhood sees him waving around a gun. Sponsorship of terrorism is the same kind of thing, with one important difference. The terrorists once sponsored by Pakistan's security services have gotten off the leash, and are now active within Pakistan itself.
The Pakistani security services appear to see everything through the prism of the epic, endless, hopeless, pointless geopolitical rivalry with India and so have been slow to adjust to drastically changed circumstances. These include not only the recent epidemic of terrorist violence within Pakistan but also the changes in the world economy that render much of Pakistan's own economy even less competitive than it was before. They will not give up their privileged position within Pakistan, not for anything, and it follows from that they won't change the assumptions about India upon which their position is based.
Now, I well believe that Pakistani attitudes are subject to other influences as well: theological currents within Islam and the influence of Arab money, and perhaps especially the youth and consequent manipulability of much of Pakistan's population. Show me how all of them combined approach in any way the corrosive, debilitating influence of how Pakistanis -- and the most politically influential Pakistanis in particular -- have chosen to view the Indian question. I'm keeping an open mind here, but I don't think it can be done.
Zathras,
You are obviously neither a Pakistani army officer nor a Pakistani intelligence operative!!! Good day, sir.
"...Pakistan is no where near figuring out how to deal with the spiraling conflict inside the country."
"inside the country" is apparently a necessity to the U.S. considering what these attacks are implying. Pakistan won't have much of a choice if these problems escalate.
Zathras said "To the outside observer, the idea of Pakistan as a rival to India is obviously idiotic. Canadians and Mexicans don't see their countries as geopolitical rivals of the United States; Uruguay doesn't orient its foreign policy around a rivalry with Brazil."
Think you need to consider your compariables. Religion is involved. You touched on it with your comments about partition. Canada and Mexico were not seperated from the US due to religious belief. Partition happened cause people could not get along with each other, and they still don't.
The Indian problem and today's problem are linked and hard to seperate. They are shades of grey, not black and white. About the only seperation I see is a dotted line on a map, maybe the group identities are different.
It is about people using what they have on hand, religion, to beat each other over the head with. People have been slaughtering people in the name of God for centuries. Problem is the west gave these guys a lot of money and people used it to get better at killing people, rather than getting above their problems. It is a human condition, people with common bonds do this.....mob mentality
Zathras,
Good stuff. Londonstani good stuff as well.
My original note about the Lakki Marwat bombing led to a heated discussion on our email list. I wanted to synthesize this discussion into a coherent article about the direction Pakistan may take in the coming year. Unfortunately, it does not look like I will have the time to really do that properly right now, so I am going to just make a mishmash of the various comments and my comments on them and wait for more comments in order to put this together and make sense of it….
Omar
Let me disagree with you for a change (!), Omar.
I fear very much that you hope in vain.
This whole strategic depth nonsense is still very much the idiots' game plan.
Remember too, that manufacturing enemies out of thin air is what keeps the lucre flowing.
We are in very deep trouble, indeed.
Happy New Year, all,
Kamran
P.S. Someone who went to condole the death of the poor Peshawar Corps Commander´s poor son in the horrific Westridge mosque attack told me that Kayani was there too, and that there was no visible change in our Rommels' and Guderians' attitudes.
Dear Taqi,
Army interests in Pakistani state are the highest. I am told they have started worrying about Indian economic growth verus Pak sagging economy. They know if the gap keeps on widening they will be done. Therefore, they are not fighting jihadis only under US pressure: they have their own reasons. The need to accelerate the process will force them further. In history, it is not what a group desire to do but what history makes them do.
ME
I think Mr. Ejaz is correct in his statement, "I am told they have started worrying about Indian economic growth verus Pak sagging economy. They know if the gap keep on widening they will be done". However, I think he is wrong to think that this will force the army to accelerate the process of eliminating Jihadism. Quite the contrary, the Pak army will intensify efforts to destabilize India's economic growth. The many Jihadi strikes all across India in the past couple of years culminating in the Mumbai attack were designed to scare off foreign investment. My prediction is that ISI supported terrorists will step up their attacks on Indian economic centers and foreign nationals and investments.
The army will not relinquish the anti-Indian and 'strategic afghan depth' Jihadis in our life times unless all these Jihadis (Hafeez Saeed, Masood Azhar, Salahuddin etc) start directly killing the army/influential-elite personnel and their families. There is no indication that the Haqqanis, Saeeds, Azhars and Slahuddins have, as yet, turned against their benefactors and masters.
Chat Mohan
Taqi,
I hope you are wrong about the army being unable to change course. If they dont change course, the disaster in our region will be so huge, all this will look like child's play...I think they will change course. I think you underestimate how much of this is not because they are all conscious agents of some evil wahabi plan but because they are at about the same mental level as Imran Khan when it comes to history and sociology.
In the case of most members of the high command, its a combination of stupidity, delusions of being "strategic geniuses" and short term economic interests that propel their disastrous policies.... outside of a few true blooded jihadis like Hamid Gul and General Mahmud, its not ideological shrewdness and determination. ...Once the wind starts to blow in a different direction in civil society (and maybe with some help from viceroy Anne Patterson sahiba and her team of psychotherapists) they will discover their grand strategic plan was actually to destroy the jihadis all along....Oh well, it sounds weird even to me. but the alternative is too horrible, so I continue to hope.
Omar
Dear Omar,
As much as I would like to blame the Jihadist mindset and Army's collusion with it, it is actually the educated middle class that has failed to comprehend the magnitude of Wahhabi menace.
You have seen that the knee-jerk response to the Ashura bombing was a proposal to ban the Shiite processions. I contended at the time that it was not merely a sectarian attack and was in fact another front in the Wahhabi war on our (South Asian) way of life .
Hate to use the told-ya-so at such a grim juncture but I did identify sports stadiums as previous and potential targets for the Wahhabi jihadists.
Pak Army has not and will not change its course. They are not confused at all about their creation unleashing havoc on us. They are the mother of all evil.
They are the ones harboring Al-Qaida and Taliban.
Wali-ur-Rehman Mahsud's press conference inside the Army fort is just tip of this iceberg. Fazlullah,Muslim Khan and Haqqani are all hosted and protected by the Army.
Unless the Pakistani middle class is clear in identifying the Army and its Wahhabi allies , as the source of all evil and lean on it - through media,political/ civil pressure and if needed through international civil and military help - we will continue to see this destruction.
Best,
Taqi
ISI mouthpieces are appealing to “the people” to sweep away this rotten democracy and get ready for WAR against India and NATO.
OK, here is my question:
Is this a sign of increasing desperation in the ISI-Jihad crowd because they are losing control of the country?
I ask because obviously in the good old days, they did not have to ask the people to rise up and sweep away "crooked democracy" because they had already done the sweeping away. Today, Zardari and his unfortunately incompetent team and the Sharifs and MQM and ANP are all living IN Pakistan. They do not have control over the security establishment, but they are not totally powerless either. Is the glass half-full or half-empty?
Omar
I think every responsible and patriotic Pakistani who really loves the country would or should agree with your sensible conclusion that in the final analysis, when the die is cast, the only viable course is that the Army decisvely takes on the Taliban/Jihadists , America successfully stablises Afghanistan and we make long-needed and long-lasting peace with India. That seems to be the route that makes most sense, the ultimate ,inescapable and rational end-game for Pakistan's survival, progress and future. If the generals in their infinite wisdom think they have a better idea why don't they share with the govt or the people. I can't imagine any other outcome that would be more beneficial for the nation.
Having said that ,I'm not sure about this business of the need for the Army 'to switch sides', which assumes that the Army is currently on the Jihadis' side and is aligned with and controls them. I think this is a big assumption. Like I said before that though there's no doubt that the Jihadi mindset is firmly entrenched in a significant segment of the Army and many officers and even some generals might have sympathies with the Jihadis and Talibans, I dont think the GHQ has laid down an across-the-board formal, strategic policy to support the Jihadists/Talibans and to throw its lot with them. Of course this assumption is self-serving for the Army's image since it conveys the impression that our Army is so powerful and efficient that it easily eliminate the Taliban/Jihadists if it really wants to. Recents events have clearly shown that the Army is helpless and incapable of preventing the daily onslaughts of the massacre of Pkaistan people by the Taliban/Jihadists.
However, I'm not absolutely certain about this assertion since I too don't have access to any real time inside information. I can only surmise and speculate based on events and state of affairs. But I agree that the fact that so far the Army has failed to kill or capture any one of the Taliban or Jihadi leaders leads to suspicion that the Army might be in cohoots with the Taliban/Jihadis.
Or maybe the reality is that the Army simply lack the ability , capability and the willingness to defeat them decisively for whatever reasons. May be our people have an urealistic and exaggerated sense of Army's capabilities and accomplishments. Why can't the Army go after the country's enemy from within and finish them off to the last terrorist Sri-Lankan style? The answer to that is : Perhaps it can't. Really!
Tausif
I think it is the petro dollars. Along with the gulf sponsored affluence for many families in Pakistan the Wahabi culture comes as a package deal. They figure since the Wahabi's have it so good, they must be doing something right, so let us try to imitate them. And then you have sponsored people like Dr. Zakir Naik and Dr. Farhat Hashmi complementing the efforts.
While we are at it, my prediction is that Pakistan is going to succumb to the forces of religious right and we are going to have some sort of rightist set up real soon.
if you remember, you and I briefly discussed this the last time I was in Islamabad, and we decided that in the best case scenario it may turn out to be a non-Wahabi (but radicalized sufi type) setup. And as you pointed out that the recent hype surrounding Zaid Hamid in Pakistan might be geared toward this objective."
Every day I see more women turning to hijab, and more men growing beards, People have almost stopped saying good old Khuda Hafiz, for "Allah hafiz. Alhuda is opening new branches every now and then, recently my favourite bookstore that kept western classics and new releases, tuned into Quran and Hijab shop
If you live here in Pakistan you get a sense of Arabization and wahabiization growing all around you. Military can't be held resposible for that .something else has gotten hold of our psyche….
Brother Omar,
Assalam alaikum. The question is not what Saudis say or Group X or Y says. We are intelligent and educated people and we should make an effort to read and understand Quran and Sunnah and put into practice and strive to spread the message of true Islam to the best of our ability so we can be successful in the hereafter.
The big difference between you and me is that I believe in applying Islam in totality and that Islam is complete in itself and is totally different from all isms. You are a believer in secularism. All secularists are anti islamic. I am expressing my opinion frankly and of course you may disagree with it totally. May Allah guide all of us.
Dr Akhtar
A member asked: “where do the terrorists get their money”. In Pakistan, this question is usually a rhetorical question that is supposed to imply that India or “the Jews” are funding the terrorists against the holy Pakistani army.
My answer: Several sources: Number one is extortion from NATO contractors....every project in Afghanistan and every convoy through Pakistan has to pay off the local taliban to function. Second is donations from jihadi sympathizers, especially lucrative are the donations from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Some friends say Daood Ibrahim's network is fully functional as well and is a source of money for the jihadis. ISI can support them directly also, but probably does not need to....Finally, its possible that India or other interested parties may fund especially insane cells in the hope that they will mess up Pakistan and cause a civil war within the jihadi community...but I doubt if India can do too much in this area. First of all, they are not totally mad and know by now that supporting such people even if they attack Pakistan is not a good bet because eventually they will also attack India. You may say that RAW is probably no smarter than ISI and if ISI can be so blind to long term risks, why not RAW? Who knows? But given how many jihad supporters there are in Pakistan and the gulf, I dont think RAW has to waste their money....
Finally, late at night, I wrote a more pessimistic assessment.
A lot of friends are saying that GHQ and Jihad are inseparable. I dont have any inside information, but I keep hoping that the Generals some idea of their own interests even if they dont give a damn about Pathans who die while watching volleyball matches or shopping in Mina Bazaar.
Do the Generals imagine that their flats in London and ranches in Montana will remain safe and sound and they and their families will fly out before the shit hits the fan? Or, do they really believe (in the face of 30 years evidence to the contrary) that the ISI is so smart, it will get endless American dollars, Saudi Riyals and Chinese Yuans and manage to square the circle and retain the jihadis and strategic depth? that Afghanistan will again be our playground where we will test out the new wahabi paradise? and India will surrender Kashmir to us and everyone else will cheer our men of crisis who will win in war, win in peace, win economically and win politically, making fools of everyone else in the process? OR, do they really believe that they will be among the lucky 12000 who ride with Jesus when he lands in Khorasan while everybody else goes to hell?
That last statement has a story behind it. I was arguing on the internet with a friend who is a Pak army Jihadi sympathizer and he said "we will soon have MIRVed missiles and a thousand warheads (or something like that) and then we will really go for it". I said this is madness, any nuclear war will kill tens of millions, what are you talking about? he replied (I kid you not) that an authentic hadith states that only 12000 (or whatever) true muslims will ride with Jesus when he lands in Khorasan. We pray that we will be one of those 12000. Everyone else is going to either die or be on the losing side anyway! (btw, if anyone thinks this is a peculiarly Muslim delusion, they should read about various American evangelicals who are hoping world war breaks out soon so that Jesus can land in Jerusalem. Jesus, who seems to have been a peace loving man (or god) seems to trigger really warlike thoughts in some people)...
I look forward to informed comments..
To me, the only simulation that leads to any reasonable outcome is that the Pak army switches sides and takes on the jihadis, America stabilizes Afghanistan and India and Pakistan stick with peace rather than proxy wars and endless zero-sum destructive games. Everything else leads to disaster and I dont think our BFFs in China will take us with them to the South Chinese capitalist paradise of the future while the rest of South Asia is awestruck with admiration for the geniuses in GHQ...
Conspiracy theories are rampant in the US as well. Huge number of people believe that 9/11 was in some sense "an inside job", either planned and carried out or manipulated by George Bush.
Most people seem to believe that George Bush "lied" to get us involved in Iraq in order to make oil profits.
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