Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS.
Londonstani is still processing the news that the suicide bomber who killed the CIA officers in Khost was a Jordanian double agent working for the Pakistani Taliban.
Apart from reading like the backcover of a Fredrick Forsyth novel, this illustrates the point of the CNAS report AM posted in the previous entry.
The former official said that the fact that militants could carry out a successful attack using a double agent showed their strength even after a steady barrage of missile strikes fired by C.I.A. drone aircraft.
“Double agent operations are really complex,” he said. “The fact that they can pull this off shows that they are not really on the run. They have the ability to kick back and think about these things.”
This isn't even the Afghan Taliban, its the Pakistani Taliban. They are supposed to be getting hammered by the Pakistani army.
This post makes me want to watch Leonardo Dicaprio in "Body of Lies" over again. I wonder if they were calling the Jordanian guy, "basha"--that would've been cool, straight from the movies.
"I tend to be suspicious of all true believers. Present company included...
In this game, the most committed wins."
(from "the Siege")
http://www.ishmaeljones.com/solutions-for-intelligence-ref/
This whole fiasco reminds me of Mr. Jones' book. I'm wondering why we don't have our own "Jordanian physician"? Why we had to rely on another agency's "Jordanian physician"/agent? Had we had our own, would we have taken him through a more stringent vetting/security process? Were we more lax because this was another agency's agent and we were just merely borrowing? After 8 years of this, is our CIA still just hiring male blondes from Ivy Leagues whose only other language is French? Is this why we rely on others, unable to do our own deep infiltration operations? I'm all for sharing and collaborating, but we should be doing some really deep stuff on our own. OR maybe we should just take heed and follow all of Mr. Jones' recommendations.
I still can't wrap my mind around why 7 CIA officers died, plus 1 Jordanian, plus those injured, plus one jihadi double agent. I thought this article by Ishmael Jones may shed some light on why so many people were present.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTlmYTc4NGQ4NDhlYTZhYjBjZGE5MDU...
"We should capture terrorists anywhere, any time, but we should get the job done right and with a minimum of bureaucracy. Real spying is inexpensive and requires few people. The basic act of espionage is a single CIA officer meeting a single source — a person with access to secrets on terrorists or nuclear proliferators, for example — in a dingy hotel room in a dysfunctional country.
Any CIA operation that is revealed to the public, however, shows these telltale signs: The operation looks busy, a lot of people are involved, and large amounts of money are spent. Often you’ll hear the CIA accused of being risk averse. I agree. However, risk aversion is a complex concept. The CIA will sometimes conduct risky operations in order to achieve a more important goal: looking busy."
The whole setup seems weird to me. They didnt pat him down at any checkpoint, and they had 8 operators+ in attendance as he blew himself up. Wonder what bait was used to draw so much attention...?
Juan Cole on the issue: http://www.juancole.com/2010/01/serial-catastrophes-in-afghanistan.html
"The CIA's dependence on a double agent who finally openly betrayed them raises troubling questions about US strategy and tactics in the region. Such informants essentially direct CIA drone missile strikes.
You could imagine Siraj Haqqani, leader of the Haqqani Network in Khost and over the border in Pakistan's North Waziristan, inserting such a double agent into FOB Chapman and then using the CIA. For instance, what if a middling member of the Haqqani network launched a challenge to Siraj's leadership and that of his ailing father, Jalaluddin (an old-time ally of Reagan who was warmly greeted in the White House in the 1980s)? Wouldn't it be easy enough just to have the double agent tell the CIA that the challenger is a really bad guy in cahoots with al-Qaeda? Boom. Drone strike kills Taliban leaders in North Waziristan. In this way, Siraj could have used the US to eliminate rivals and become more and more powerful. And how many double agents have given up a few Arab jihadis who had fallen out with the Haqqanis, but then deliberately followed this up with bad intel on some innocent village, making the name of the US mud among the Pashtuns?
The drone strikes shouldn't be run by the CIA, and probably shouldn't be run at all. It could well be that savvy old-time Mujahidin trained in CIA tradecraft in the 1980s are having our young wet behind the ears field officers for lunch."
Al-Sahwa has a great post on this on similar situations in Iraq, although nothing as sexy as a Jordanian double agent....BTW wouldn't this guy be a triple agent?
http://al-sahwa.blogspot.com/2010/01/inherent-dangers-of-working-by-with...
Basically says don't ever take off your body armor or drop your guard around da help. Have your own safe spot guarded by yer own, disarm anyone not from the tribe and escort them. Meaning Al Amiriki tribe.
Dr. Jones - we should really wipe out the entire thing and start over, without Congress knowing or especially budgeting. Because if they do, every scumbag from Congress - that's all of them - will want his own committee, sub-committee, chair...etc. That's why our govt is so expensive. It's why - for instance - the Health Care "Reform" created 100+ new Bureaucracies.
The notion of professional spies is actually quite recent, and may not be a good idea. I'm not sure.
As far as them hiring Blond Ivy Leaguers....as opposed to all the locals they could find in the USA that are willing to help and plugged in...yeah. That's probably still largely true. The NYPD on the other hand cracked the code and mined it's rich ethnic ore for the intel gold. Maybe it's time to copy them as best practice. See "Defending the City".
Nibras K has a great post on this guy over at Talisman's gate, he remembers him.
This guy was a known, and published jihadist. You have to be f*cking kidding.
http://talismangate.blogspot.com/2010/01/wow-khorasani-was-suicide-bombe...
Man, AQ - welcome back. They are on a comeback roll!! As NK points out, this guy will become a legend, he'll also help all the jihadi larvae overcome their instinctive fear of the local intel systems.
I'm so glad our program of reaching out to our enemies, and closing GITMO (the centerpiece of the Prez's program) is having such great results. Really, I don't suppose I can get any credit for predicting the Administration's program would rejuvenate AQ from the grave? This is starting to look like the greatest comeback since Ghenghis Khan busted outta slavery and was hiding in the bushes eating berries, alone. A few years later he's master of the known world.
oh the reason you are "killing more jihadists" with the Predator drones than Bush? Uh...well 1) you have to overlook Iraq for that stat to be accurate, but more importantly 2) they're flocking back to the banner, because the brand has been rejuvenated!! They're winning again.
World's airports to Bammy: No, we won't obey your pat down commands.
http://talismangate.blogspot.com/2010/01/wow-khorasani-was-suicide-bombe...
Jimmy Carter had more street cred.
Londonstani, what's your take on this story?
Friday, January 01, 2010
ISLAMABAD: The country may plunge into the worst imaginable energy crisis as virtually all refineries are teetering on the verge of financial default and may close down operations by Jan 15.
All the oil refineries of the country, currently working on a negative gross revenue margin, and with their borrowing limits already exhausted, are likely to shut down within the next two weeks following their expected default to retire the existing L/Cs to import crude oil. The shutdown would mean no oil supplies for thermal power generation plants and the picture turns outright dark.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print3.asp?id=26410
Off topic: The Asian Times published two interesting pieces these days:
One re: the role of money in the Iranian powerstruggle
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA05Ak01.html
and one re: Russia, India and the Stans (not Londonstan ...):
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LA05Ag02.html
Another try - first post didn't appear ...
Londonstani, what's your take on this:
Friday, January 01, 2010
ISLAMABAD: The country may plunge into the worst imaginable energy crisis as virtually all refineries are teetering on the verge of financial default and may close down operations by Jan 15.
All the oil refineries of the country, currently working on a negative gross revenue margin, and with their borrowing limits already exhausted, are likely to shut down within the next two weeks following their expected default to retire the existing L/Cs to import crude oil. The shutdown would mean no oil supplies for thermal power generation plants and the picture turns outright dark.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print3.asp?id=26410
Off topic: 2 interesting pieces by the Asian Times:
re money and the power struggle in Iran
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA05Ak01.html
re Russia, India and the Stans
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LA05Ag02.html
Positrolls new years resolutions - update:
Be more patient ...
Maybe profiling is not a bad thing if you do it right...........
All the hub bub about the enemy's capabilities. This is a low level conflict. Over a period of time, there are going to be success on both sides. The mistake that the CIA made is they let their guard down. Just like the airlines and the TSA let their guard down. The Army at Fort Hood let their guard down.
CIA treated the Jordan guy as a Jordan guy, the CIA was fighting AFPAK taliban, Jordan guys do not fit the profile. Neither do gentle boys from Nigeria or Army Majors with professional degrees.
What do all these people have in common? That was the CIA's mistake.
We have to stop our intelligence leaders from going into denial and making stupid statements to cover their butts/careers. Current admin may look at things in shades of grey, but when it finally happens on American soil, Americans are going to demand a black and white response and the admin will finally have to justify themselves. Right now the current admin does not want to look like the previous one, yet they kept many of the actors in place. They can only keep their party base in check for so long.
PS.....Rather than restricting my Consitutional rights, how about giving all fifty states concealed carry. That way when one of these knotheads show up at our shopping malls (home made or otherwise) we can put a stop to the behavior. We have a right to self-defense.
It could've been worse, I guess. Some bright eyed GS-15 trying to get to management could've arrange a meet and greet here in the DC area for Al-Khorsani to debrief much higher uppers on the where abouts of #2 and #1. Gullability will kill you, that should be posted on the wall of stars.
I'm with Elf on this one, no pat down, no security checks, was this guy walking around with the worlds most trust-able face?
Did not one person think that maybe just maybe, it would have been a good idea to show some modicum of polite but stern suspicion.
And the fact that this guy was a published jihadist author means that the CIA ( and associates) still appear to be failing at the open source Intel game. Its out there on the web, not all Intel is going to come from some shady backroom meet and greet.
I once got within 15 feet of the head of the WTO in Oslo, while we had just put up posters calling him kmurderer. A nice suit and a smile will get you there (and being aryan of course.) We made a real fine art-exhibition, my girlfriend had 20 foot projection of starving kinds and shopping malls. on the wall. while we spread stickers. everywhere.
It was quite funny. The security got al freaked out. but we were invited...
You yanks dont seem to have patience to educate generations. You need 10-15 years to change a mindset, and its going on 9 now,
"my girlfriend had 20 foot projection of starving kinds and shopping malls. on the wall. while we spread stickers. everywhere."
Was this your Nigerian or Indian girlfriend, fnord? Pls. give us more details.
"And the fact that this guy was a published jihadist author means that the CIA ( and associates) still appear to be failing at the open source Intel game. Its out there on the web, not all Intel is going to come from some shady backroom meet and greet."
I'm starting to realize the scene in "Rendition" where the young CIA protagnonist googles the names tortured outta the suspect and realizes he's innocent could quite happen.
Seriously. They don't look at the f*cking Internet?!??
At one time didn't a shiteload of intel come from reading open publications? Most journalists are essentially spies, they just are spying for their media organization rather than a govt.
Profile on Londonstani: full cavity and underwear search.
Eww yuck, I can't believe I said that...blame Fnord, I've been hanging around him too much.
Working as I do with a host of Australia's finest journos, I'd also like to steer clear of the body cavity search discussion.
The main question on my wife's lips ( she has to deal with this stuff by proxy) was why the bomber wasn't searched. And it's still messing with my head, was a guy so valuable, and so tricked up whit lovelies that he wasn't search , not once. Grrr
The basic act of espionage is a single CIA officer meeting a single source — a person with access to secrets on terrorists or nuclear proliferators, for example — in a dingy hotel room in a dysfunctional country.
http://www.videojug.com/interview/recruiting-cia-agents-2 (the Recruitment Cycle)
The Jordanian was an Intelligence officer and a member of the Royal Family, and the Jordanians vouched for the double agent. The agent had been feeding the CIA actionable intelligence to build his cred, no doubt vectoring predators to wedding parties in the process. He apparently told the CIA he had time critical big news, and the agency dispatched most of its top al Qaeda people to the base apparently, including the #2 CIA officer in Afghanistan (who was injured but survived). They let the agent past perimeter security unchecked and were assembled waiting for hm when he got out of the car and detonated.
The CIA would appear to be a dangerously soft headed institution believing far too much in the power of persuasion and diplomacy, and driven by wishful thinking. What kind of fools congregate unshielded waiting for a known double agent to be expedited through security? Couple that with the remarkable disinformation campaign the agency ran to deemphasize the Iranian nuclear threat and you get the impression of a lot of hopeful speculation about intent and a discounting of capabilities dangerous in any kind of intelligence agency.
For once I'm glad there's balkanization of the US intelligence services.
They must have been playing cowboy, or something? How is it possible for a person to get through perimeter ecurity without being patted down? I dont understand this.
How is it possible? Well they haven't been tricked into something like this since the 1983 Beirut embassy bombings - when they also got most of our in country assets in one room and blew them up. Guess a reminder was in order, hopefully the response isn't to bunker down and hide from the locals - rendering us blind.
Now mind you if they didn't have their dirty tricks periodically aired before Congress, the Media and now DOJ...maybe they wouldn't adopt the attitude of relying on liaison relationships for HUMINT.
How is it possible that you're so gay, fnord? It's practically the same question...
Hear me out. M&M's are our downfall, at least the Brown ones per the Weekly Standard..
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/administration-statements-documents-...
No Brown M&M's - is that racist?
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