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The Wall Street Journal, and Drones
A few months ago, I allowed my housemate's subscription to the Washington Post to lapse and used my Delta Skymiles to buy a subscription to the Wall Street Journal. I quite like the Journal, even though its news side has perhaps grown unncessarily partisan in the past year, because it forces me to read articles about subjects -- namely, finance -- that I would not normally study. Also, longtime friends Yochi Dreazen and Charles Levinson report for the paper, and Jason Gay's sports column is one of the funniest things you'll read in any given week. (He had a line about the Washington Wizards' "shooting percentage" that caused me to snort oatmeal last week.)
Today, though, my newfound friends at the Journal mention me in the lead editorial in such a way that I need to slightly correct the record. In a rare editorial praising the president, the Journal's editorial board gives a big thumbs up to drone strikes against al-Qaeda but add:
"Critics such as counterinsurgency writers David Kilcullen and Andrew Exum allege that drones have killed hundreds, if not thousands, of civilians."
The Journal is not saying "Kilcullen and Exum are idiots", but they are, I think, twisting an argument the two of us have raised.
To begin, the Journal seems most concerned -- understandably, I might add -- with how many civilians are actually being killed. The reason Dave and I cited open source reporting out of Pakistan is because we were more concerned with how many civilians are perceived to be dying in drone strikes. There's a difference there, and it goes back to my larger concern that drone strikes are a tactic unaccompanied by a more comprehensive strategy incorporating an effective strategic communications plan. Here's what we wrote:
Press reports suggest that over the last three years drone strikes have killed about 14 terrorist leaders. But, according to Pakistani sources, they have also killed some 700 civilians. This is 50 civilians for every militant killed, a hit rate of 2 percent — hardly “precision.” American officials vehemently dispute these figures, and it is likely that more militants and fewer civilians have been killed than is reported by the press in Pakistan.
I'm not saying drone strikes cannot be part of the solution (as Dave and I have said time and time again), but I am saying that right now, they're a part of the problem. If I thought drone strikes were incorporated into a coherent strategy rather than a convenient tactic substituting for a strategy, two thirds of my objections would go away.
Just this week, a friend of mine asked me to participate in a panel discussion on drone strikes, and here is how I responded:
I would be up for that as long as no one expects me to be some anti-drone fundamentalist. I have serious reservations about our reliance on drone strikes as a tactic and think they need to be integrated into a more comprehensive strategy. And I think the military should do them, mainly so that we would have the kinds of checks and balances and accountability we (should) get when the U.S. military executes an operation. I’m sure folks in Langley might want my head on a platter for saying this, but I wish our nation’s intelligence services would stop trying to be so operational and would stick to gathering intelligence.
This concern, about which agency or department is the most appropriate agency or department for carrying out these strikes, is a question left unaddressed by the Journal's editorial but one that I think should be asked. I fret drone strikes have become a way for a certain agency in the U.S. government to justify its budget share and relevance in the fight against al-Qaeda.
I got my first taste of everyone in the 202 area code hating me when Dave and I wrote this op-ed on drone strikes seven months ago and was told by many that I should avoid writing such things lest I hurt my career. (Cue laughter from the readership.) But I am glad there is now a real and more mature debate on the strikes, their merits and their limits today than there was then. And if our op-ed helped start a debate, then I figure I'm doing my job -- even if it annoys the administration and the intelligence community.
abu m, did you see this
abu m, did you see this op-ed on dawn.com re: drone strikes in pakistan?
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspa...
farhat taj's actual article
farhat taj's actual article in the daily times from about a week ago:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C01%5C02%5Cstory_2-1...
Wow, I guess you're just
Wow, I guess you're just that important huh? Good to know.
Andrew, I think ignoring, or
Andrew, I think ignoring, or in this directly impugning, the decades of direct action the CIA has performed in the field to little fanfare or praise is why the intelligence community gets annoyed with you, NOT because you argue against a specific tactic they use in conjunction with the military.
"I fret drone strikes have become a way for a certain agency in the U.S. government to justify its budget share and relevance in the fight against al-Qaeda."
I'm afraid you can only say that about the CIA if you're completely ignorant of their activities in the region, and assume all they do is drone strikes. This post is complaining about the WSJ turning your op-ed into a strawman. You could give the CIA some professional courtesy on that front.
"...Exum, a professional
"...Exum, a professional military commentator, was last seen being bundled into a black Humvee with no licence plates. The presummed vehicle was found torched nearby, and initial reports trace it to Eric Prince and the XO corporation, formerly known as Blackwater. Exums whereabouts are still a mystery..."
hohoho. Brave move.
Abu M: Let me get this
Abu M:
Let me get this straight: you argue that the WSJ has become 'unnecessarily partisan' (the obvious underlying sentiment behind this statement being that it doesn't conform to your political viewpoints) and you use a - wait for it - New York Times article as your source??? Wow. Just wow.
Abu M: Let me get this
Abu M:
Let me get this straight: you complain that the Wall Street Journal has grown 'unnecessarily partisan' (which can be taken to mean it doesn't converge with your political viewpoints) and then you go on to cite a - wait for it - New York Times article as the underlining source for your contention??? Wow. Just wow.
If you get down to it, were
If you get down to it, were the rubber hits the road is in the finance section. You could most likely find a dotted line between ME investments and the companies that make the drones!
Dubai Private Equity
Dubai Airshow Exhibitor List
Liers use statistics, but statistics never lie.
The company does its job. Putting the drones under company control is perfect harmony. Problem is everyone knows what they are about. AQ is not bound by any rules. Why do we need to fight this with our hands completely bound behind our backs? Sometimes the only way to gain ground, playing by the other side's rules. Just another tool in the tool box. Plausible deniability for gathering intel.
The drones are a message. AQ, you have no safe havens Helps keep them off balance.
Of course AQ is going to chant unfair, they know we have to respond, it is public opinion that they win. Think the panty bomber is not guility? Everyone saw him. He has the burns to prove it. Think that the Ft. Hood shooter is not guility? There are lots of wittnesses, including two sworn officers of the court. The not guility plea is AQ's last attack at on the western system. They get to be in the news and it is more of our treasure. It is one of the best reasons that I can think of for the trials to be in a military court.
If AQ would go away, then I would sign-up for the troops coming home and drones being retired.
AQ is not going away. We be fools to think that we can pacify them
Actually the WSJ has a good
Actually the WSJ has a good circulation, and it is reputed to their sticking to the old "objective" standard of journalism - the reporters tend towards liberal, the management is more conservative. It's the original formula to boost circulation from the 19th century that lifted us up from the partisan press, to which we have returned.
[Fnord - it's Xe I believe. ]
Actually I think for a HVT like AM, they'd use a drone.
"Legendary Jihadi Abu Muqawama was terminated today by drone strike...."
So next time in the ME...look up ;-)
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/06/a_false_nuclear_alarm
I don't think that I will be looking at the WSJ for foreign affairs in the future.
Ignoring the fact that the Op-Ed continuously confused strategy with tactics, or neared miltech porn (ok, as a piece of literature it would be miltech erotica) at some points, it was it simply made a lot of unwarranted points. Yes, the drone war is the most moral air war ever, but comparing something favorably to Dresden is not a basis to actually call it moral. Yes, we know Obama wants to try Mr. Hotpants in a civilian court. How does this relate to drones? Some more examples:
"Pakistan and Yemen have both given their permission to the U.S., albeit quietly. Even if they hadn't, the U.S. would be justified in attacking enemy sanctuaries there as a matter of self-defense."
We are allowed to attack anyone we please, regardless of sovereignty, because of self defense? Perhaps we should expand the drone war to London; there are extremists there.
"We hear the U.S. could have taken out the radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki after his contacts with Fort Hood shooter Major Nidal Hassan came to light in November, missing the chance by not authorizing the strike. Perhaps al-Awlaki's U.S. citizenship gave U.S. officials pause, but after he joined the jihad he became an enemy and his passport irrelevant."
Almost an Orwellian definition. There is no definite proof that Awlaki has done anything meriting the death penalty, so we should assassinate him for spreading an opinion? Talk about a slippery slope; what are the standards for joining "the jihad?" Where do we set the bar for subversive speech?
All in all, a hopelessly partisan article.
'Hundreds of Al Qaeda &
'Hundreds of Al Qaeda & Islamic Jihadi members are fleeing Yemen and Afghanistan to Lebanon':
http://www.10452lccc.com/elias%20english09/hamid.elias9.1.10.htm
Translation of article published on 09/01/10 by the Kuwaiti Daily Al-Seyassah
AM, I think everyone would
AM,
I think everyone would agree that drone strikes have some serious downsides. Whether those downsides are worth it in the end is difficult to judge empirically. But one has to consider: What's the alternative? Your criticism is that it's a tactic without a strategy ignores the reality that this "tactic" is only one available regardless of strategy. Stop the drone strikes and the "safe haven" in Pakistan truly becomes safe for AQ leadership.
Andrew, Thank you for
Andrew,
Thank you for posting this. This really piqued my interest. In particular...
I allowed my housemate's subscription to the Washington Post to lapse and used my Delta Skymiles to buy a subscription to the Wall Street Journal.
Was this a limited time offer? My subscription is coming up for renewal in less than three weeks.
Also, while I am grateful for the tip, I have to ask - why do you need to pay anything? I mean, I had friends who were bartenders who hooked me up with freebies. Your friends are hotshot WSJ writers and you get nothing but a occasional reference in their columns?
asdfsdf, The company has not
asdfsdf,
The company has not droned London, think that Anwar al-Awlaki was hanging out with the wrong crowd. Tuff luck that Anwar al-Awlaki happened to be in a room full of targets. Maybe that is a message not to hang out with the wrong people. PAK and Yemen gave us permission, quietly. Sounds like the company is handling things very neat and tidy.
Schmedlap,.....really, AM should have had CNS pick up the tab and had it deliveried at the business address.
asdfsdf, .....Forgot...someth
asdfsdf,
.....Forgot...something.....
"Yes, we know Obama wants to try Mr. Hotpants in a civilian court. How does this relate to drones?"
Both drones and the bomber trail are both tactics in a larger strategy.
OP-EDs do increase heart beat rates. Some folks think that might raise subscriptions...they got AM's money. AM got good value. It is hard to delink Foreign Policy and the finacial pages these days. Do not believe? How will America delink the $800B we owe China from Human Rights issues (any democrats out there, feel free to chime in..How did Obama do on his visit end of '09?)? Hate to tell AM this, not sure how the WSJ will handle this, but subsciptions are so yesterday the Internet has seen to that. Another victim to globalization.
It is funny how we are fighting this terror war. We are letting public opinion and commitee do the work. On the board of directors sits AQ. Quietly doing what Flynn did with MI.....trying to change public opinion. I do not agree with the Vietman: Afghanistan comparison. They are two different political times and wars, there are loose parallels. I am sure there are folks that can find close connections to justify their paychecks and views. If we let AQ sit on the board of directors, Vietnam and Afghanistan have a good chance of ending up the same way. The wars end might the only truly equal comparison between the conflicts. I agree that COIN makes sense in Afghanistan, I never said that America would win. If anything points that out more clearly is McChrystal and Obama making a call, then Flynn coming out about MI. One hand does not know what the other is doing....at least it looks that way from the public view. Bad timing on Flynn's part.
What stategy that we agree on for Afghanistan should consider what would happen if the west did nothing at all. Completely pull all troops and forces out of the ME. AQ is the one that linked ME international issues, in other words AQ made America's happiness is another victim to GLOBALIZATION. Seems the ME loves a conspiracy and they do not like to blame themselves for their problems. Are their problems going away soon? Yemens problems are about to get worse, they are running out of oil. Is UAE going to rush in and save Yemen, they have not yet. Iran?. How about pulling the troops out of the ME, including cutting Isreal loose from all US aid. Accept the price of OIL for where it goes (dang it...those WSJ finacial pages again). Think we need to consider the ME without the US, then make a strategy for the ME and stick to it. My vision of the ME with out the US is AQ will find another reason to lay blame on us....we are one of the biggest kids on the block with the deepest pockets (for now).
With that said, we need to change AQ's minds, very very deeply. Give them something real to worry about.
11 Sept 2001 - America
11 Sept 2001 - America attacked.
America replies to targets outside the (political) range of their forces in Afghanistan with drone attacks carrying guided munitions on point targets. The success of one attack years later leads eventually to the suicide attack on senior CIA field personnel in retaliation.
7 Dec 1941 - America attacked.
America replies to targets outside the range of their forces in Japan with drones errr..... souped up/stripped down B-25 Mitchells on a one way mission for their crews carrying 4 (unguided) 500 lb bombs each dropped on area targets. The success (shock) of the attack leads to the execution of several captured airmen and tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Chinese who harbor the remaining aircrews in retaliation.
And both helped raise morale at home, put the enemy off balance, in the former directly affect their ability to maintain trained leadership (alive). As you look at the lack of political elements to the FM you are taking a gander yet, I wonder if the additional plusses these attacks bring to the table will begin to shift your opinion. And our strikes today are far more valuable for their substance than what we put out there 60 years ago (I also thought about the suicide program to take out V-2 launch sites that killed JFK's older brother but that didn't line up as good).
And on a side tangent, despite the fact that WWII (OHMYGAWDYOU'REWORSETHANHITLER) and the OJ trial (BUTOJWASGUILTYHEKILLEDHISWIFE!) might be the most overused and abused metaphors and hyperbolic argument killers known to mankind, they both manage to bring about everything to the table for great examples good, bad and terrible. Which leads me back to the errrrr partisan WSJ and the legal defense of drone strikes. Apparently it was okay to do such things, even when their delivery systems were terribly inaccurate as long as we were killing the evil Nazis or diabolical Japanese sneakattackers, but using precision munitions on the leadership, facilities and person who harbor, train and otherwise support the crew who carried out 9/11 etc... is illegal.
I think its about time for Trey Parker and Matt Stone to bring Team America out of retirement for another movie right about now.
And one more thing, I'm glad that Hakimullah Mehsud put himself in that video, because now when we finally put a cap in his @$$ Americans will now see that video again, this time saying "we got the dude". Bad judgement dude, otherwise you'd be just another name for joe schmo American who is bearing, and paying for this fight.
Re: "hurting your
Re: "hurting your career."
On the contrary, you are doing exactly what you should be doing and making real contributions. Anyone who thinks that a smart, combat-experienced, analyst should refrain from speaking your mind and working to advance our bipartisan interest in succeeding in the war against Al Qaeda needs to check themselves.
... before you riggidy wreck
... before you riggidy wreck yo' self!
Andrew; get the Financial
Andrew; get the Financial Times. The writers are learned, have ethics and integrity. Subject knowledge is in the DNA.
Wall Street has a very good radio station - Bloomberg am 1130. Past could get a shoe repair there. No much else is left since the urchins have risen to the top. Journal, mostly RNC talking points and "real" white papers, is indistinguishable from non recyclable litter.
I think the drone attacks
I think the drone attacks should go on, but I am rather predictably consistent that way. Except I think the coming drone attack on a lone DC jogger should be called off, AM is doing the right thing to question, it's his job.
"..I think its about time for Trey Parker and Matt Stone to bring Team America out of retirement for another movie right about now."
LOL. But yes, it's time for South Park to bring some perspective.
Has anyone else noted in the media that people are openly calling for panty-boom to be waterboarded? I'm so glad we've got a Prez who can be the Nixon who goes to China. When it finally happens can we stop demonizing Cheney?
Fnord..... Your post
Fnord..... Your post slightly disturbing....I get your dark humor, but you're creepy. :-)
Andrew, I have a question for you. During the winter of 2002-2003, I remember my father forwarding me a news article from the New York Times, which had a large story about Joseph Cofer Black. Black who had a 28-year career in the Directorate of Operations at the Central Intelligence Agency. I'm sure you know who he is and maybe have even met "The Dude". He is a very impressive man. I'd even consider working for the guy.
Anyway, this news article in the New York Times was leaked (you would think- intentionally by someone at Langley with an "ego") and described in detail the assassination of Ahmed Hijazi aka Jalal aka Kamal Derwish, who was incinerated in a car with five others by a Hellfire from a CIA Predator Drone in Yemen on November 3, 2002. Black and his people were responsible for this operation according to this news article.
Knowing that Joseph Cofer Black was instrumental in the massive "militarization of the CIA" and has implemented the regular use of drones, do you expect this use of drones to increase even more?
The reason I ask... is because, Joseph Cofer Black has been paid for many years as the chief contract consultant for Xe Solutions / Blackwater and is probably a consultant for God knows how many other DoD Contractors. With Black's looming influence as a contractor for the USG and even larger influence with private sector contractors, I think that "your wish" for our nation’s intelligence services is falling on deaf ears. Black is a very powerful man and if he has his way, the CIA will never stop being "operational". CIA left the realm almost a decade ago of "just sticking to gathering intelligence".
On a side note, I totally relate to your concerns...the future is uncertain and we can only hope for a positive change. Positive meaning......that we have more precise surgical strike capabilities without any collateral damage. Drone's are a useful tool, but I believe and we need people on the ground engaging, neutralizing and/or capturing our enemies....
I'm curious to know if we even took the time to obtain Hijazi DNA or dental remains from this drone strike to confirm Hijazi's death? Anyone know???
Snake, What type of
Snake, What type of medication do you take? and most importantly, Have you been taken them?
Also, are you a personal friend of fnord? I'm sure fnord is best buds with Cofer Black also.
Didn't the CIA go
Didn't the CIA go Operational as the OSS, SOE, Jedburgh's etc during WW2? Didn't that continue uh...like ..forever?
"Stick to Intelligence gathering"
1) To what end? Better metrics for armed social workers?
2) So who does their work (the nasty bit)? Special Ops? I think I'd consider recusing myself here...and how would we avoid the normal inter-agency stovepipes and snafu's with the intel coming over from CIA to SOF?
3) what's wrong with the JAWBREAKER model - putting SOF in with CIA teams and local talent? It's been working, like...forever?
The intelligence agencies are at war. Of course they are "militarized". They damn well better be. Yes they need to be talking to people, HUMINT etc (although that part doesn't seem to be going too well...meh) but America's at war whether it likes it or not, they need to be on a war footing.
@ Elf I think AM's been
@ Elf
I think AM's been drinking the Robert Baer koolaid on getting the CIA completely out of ops.
I disagree with that point, not necessarily based on capability or any reason like that but for legal reasons. I want our uniformed military to be "inside the box" as much as possible. It's probably one reason why Bowe Bergdahl is still alive. Let the CIA do the tricky business.
Not saying but just for point of reference.... things that make you go hmmm......
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/12/AR201001...
Visitor to Snake - Why are
Visitor to Snake - Why are you attacking and trying to discredit Snake??? He was spot on about Ahmed Hijazi assassination, as it was released to the New York Times, who wrote a detailed news article.
You sound like an uneducated idiot and have no clue what goes on in the real world. Get out of your hole ya hermit and read a newspaper once in a while! LOL!
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Peace!
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