Center for a New American Security

An exercise when reading

An exercise when reading Ferguson on finance: assume that he's wrong and find the error. It won't be far off.

If you’re interested in

If you’re interested in another “how the system got broken” book, check out “ECONned: How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism” by Yves Smith, a blogger at Naked Capitalism and one of the smartest women I’ve ever met on Wall Street. It’s available for the Kindle. Michael Lewis also has a new one out, “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.” Unfortunately, it’s not available for the Kindle.

The discussion of

The discussion of dates/locations/names of deploying units is not recommended in this forum.

Since I work at Stimson, I'm

Since I work at Stimson, I'm going to make a shameless pitch: go read the Budgeting for Foreign Affairs and Defense blog (which Gordon and his team use as a conduit for their work):
http://budgetinsight.wordpress.com/

This comment comes a few

This comment comes a few weeks too late, but I only stumbled on the following quote this week. It relates to your suspicion of abstract mathematical models of war which in the end, in trying to generalise, essentially state something really trivial:

[begin quote] "One can, however, and this is not infrequently done, give the concept of military doctrine a more concrete and restricted content, as meaning those fundamental principles of purely military affairs which regulate all aspects of military organisation, tactics and strategy. In this sense it can be said that the content of military regulations is determined directly by military doctrine. But what kind of principles are these? Some doctrinaires depict the matter like this: it is necessary to establish the essence and purpose of the army, the task before it, and from this definition one then derives its organisation, strategy and tactics, and embodies these conclusions in its regulations. Actually, such an approach to the question is scholastic and lifeless.

How banal and lacking in content are what are taken to be the basic principles of the military art can be seen from the solemnly-quoted statement by Foch that the essence of modern war is: ‘to seek out the enemy’s armies in order to beat and destroy them; to adopt, with this sole end in view, the direction and tactics which may lead to it in the quickest and safest way.’ [Foch, The Principles of War, translated by Hilaire Belloc (1918), page 42.] Extraordinarily profound! How remarkably this widens our horizon! One need only add that the essence of modern methods of nutrition consists in locating the aperture of the mouth, inserting the food therein, and, after it has been masticated with the least possible expenditure of energy, swallowing it. Why not try to deduce from this principle, which is in no way inferior to that propounded by Foch, just what sort of food is wanted, and how to cook it, and just when and by whom it should be swallowed; and, above all, how this food is to be procured.

Military matters are very empirical, very practical matters. It is a very risky exercise to try and elevate them into a system, in which field service regulations, the establishment of a squadron, and the cut of a uniform are derived from fundamental principles. This was well understood by old Clausewitz: ‘Perhaps it would not be impossible to write a systematic theory of war, full of intelligence and substance; but the theories we presently possess are very different. Quite apart from their unscientific spirit, they try so hard to make their systems coherent and complete that they are stuffed with common-places, truisms and nonsense of every kind. ’[Howard and Paret translation, page 61.]" [end quote]

Given how unlikely the author is, I shall leave it for you to suss him out.

A shattering account of war

A shattering account of war and disillusionment from a young woman reporter on the front lines of the war on terror.

Good grief.

What next? "Can this girl from a little mining town in the West find happiness as the wife of a wealthy and titled Englishman?"

Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

AM: I can't recall Goemans's

AM:

I can't recall Goemans's literature review. And while I appreciate his ability to read primary sources in multiple languages, with respect to the book (rather than the person) what impressed me is the theory he develops, and the way that he tests it. It is quite an impressive work, indeed.

ADTS

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