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Israel to CENTCOM?
I'm just back from a great conference at Wilton Park in the UK on how we can assess the effect of aid and development on counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. I'll have much more to say about this later. But depite my well-documented and mischevous antagonism toward those doing quantitative analysis in the field of security studies, allow me to once again highlight the work being done by Eli Berman, Jason Lyall, Jacob Shapiro, Joe Felter and Company. Eli's presentation on the effectiveness of CERP funding in Iraq was, for me, one of the highlights of the conference. And although the conference was governed by Chatham House rules, you can read the paper behind Eli's presentation here (.pdf). Again, I will have much more to say about this later.
For now, though, one thing that caught my eye was this report by Mark Perry (prolific author
But putting Israel in CENTCOM probably makes sense. Issues relating to Israel and the Palestinians affect quite a lot of CENTCOM's activities already, and it doesn't make sense to decouple what's going on with respect to the Middle East Peace Process and the command in charge of the Middle East. I worked on a review of CENTCOM strategy last year, focusing on the Levant and Egypt, and I confess -- and I am only speaking for myself here -- to having been frustrated in reviewing U.S. strategy concerning Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon without looking comprehensively at U.S. strategy toward Israel and the Palestinians. It doesn't make sense, right? So moving Israel and the Palestinian Territories over to CENTCOM is probably a wise decision, but I confess to not having fully thought out what the second- and third-order political effects would be.
By this standard, shouldn't
By this standard, shouldn't Turkey also be in CENTCOM? Doesn't that switch make even more sense?
I know this is pedantic, but I have a difficult time taking seriously a report that makes such a hash of terminology that's central to the story. Perry writes that "UCP means 'unified combatant command,' like CENTCOM." Well, no, actually, it doesn't mean that at all. It means "Unified Command Plan," which is the document that geographically delimits each Global Combatant Command's AOR. Moving Israel to CENTCOM would require an alteration to the UCP.
In any event, it's not going to happen. If you think the formation of AFRICOM has freaked people out about U.S. military ambitions, just wait until Israel and Palestine are included in what's generally understood to be the American warfighting command. I recognize that GEN Petraeus finds it inconvenient to have problems that bear on his mission not included in his AOR, rendering him impotent to address some of the fundamental issues that drive conflict there... but them's the breaks.
Despite what Robert Haddick alleges are recent positive trends in civil-military relations, this, for me, is an example of the harmful erosion of the dividing line between Combatant Commander and regional potentate. Appreciating that the Israel-Palestine conflict bears on other American security interests in the region, and that Israeli actions have the potential to inflame America's enemies in the region, this isn't a problem for the military to solve.
Regarding the work being
Regarding the work being done on CERP funds in Iraq does anyone know if there is equivalent work being done on CERP funds in Afghanistan?
"...without looking
"...without looking comprehensively at U.S. strategy toward Israel and the Palestinians..."
Why would you consider tying anything of strategic and real importance to what is essentially only of rhetorical importance. In particular when it's intractable. A total loser. Unless the side that can win gets sick of f*cking around and wins it. Otherwise it ends only when the Buffalo are dead--kill UN aid, involvement, and threaten to cut off all outside aid. Worked for our tribal problems in USA, will work there. Economists call this "the constraint of the stomach".
Yeah, there is a lot of
Yeah, there is a lot of research being done. This is what the CAAT was set up to do in Afghanistan.Hmmm... does this mean
Hmmm... does this mean military aid to Israel would then come under the purview of CENTCOM?
USCENTCOM and its Area of Operations: Cooperation, Burden Sharing, Arms Sales, and Centcom's Analysis by Country and Subregion
Yes, I bet the Israeli right-wingers are pleased about CENTCOM"s overall strategic position in the Middle East...
The briefing also suggests, however, that the U.S. has broader goals. It must seek a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace with the grim understanding that it may not be successful in the near term. It must recast its approach to the war on terrorism to strengthen cooperation with regional states, while also correcting the widespread impression in the region that the U.S. is anti-Arab and anti-Muslim, and sees reform more as a way of creating friendly regimes than of helping local governments and reformers address the underlying causes of terrorism.
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/articles/2008/ioi/081128-cordesman-centcom.html
Had to go build your little settlements as part of Operation Lebensraum, didn't you, Bibi? Off to the woodshed, little Napoleon. Iran with nukes? Bibi with nukes? I'm having a hard time seeing the difference, you know? Like Glen Beck with nukes, you gotta worry...
Maybe we should force Israel to go public about its nuclear arsenal while we're at it... arrogance and stupidity go hand in hand - a bad combination in a nuclear state. $50 says Israel's next arms purchase from the U.S. will be unaccountably delayed - although I doubt the same will apply to any other CENTCOM allies.
Abe Foxman goes far in
Abe Foxman goes far in painting the generals as anti-semites...
http://www.jpost.com/JewishWorld/JewishNews/Article.aspx?id=171089
"Israel should immediately battle a charge emerging in the US that its actions are endangering the lives of US soldiers, because it is a particularly “pernicious” argument that “smacks of blaming the Jews for everything,” Anti-Defamation League National Chairman Abe Foxman said on Monday."
I was just gobsmacked by the
I was just gobsmacked by the article on CERP fund effectiveness in Iraq.
What the heck could this study possibly mean other than garbage in/garbage out?
What about the correlation between SIGACTS and the number and intensity of patrols which, as a trailing factor, resulted in increased CERP funding?
In January 2008, I was asked about a request for generators in a handful of villages in Northern Iraq, so I asked the dumb question: How many were placed there in prior years? Answer: Don't know. We just got here last month, and only have a few records from the prior units.
Literally, some of the ideas and projects were so bald-faced stupid and unproductive that you wondered whether it would be easier to just load skids of US greenbacks into the back of a C-130 and scatter it to the winds. Did they measure whether it mattered whether the spending was for valuable vs. stupid projects? Whether the millions of spending for "phantom" projects and purposes was also effective? What about the money that was just outright stolen: was that productive, too?
The most valuable spending was really nothing more than necessary post-stabilization assistance for which no other appropriate humanitarian relief systems were provided. Have we analyzed what alternative mechanisms could have provided the same results through a less costly and ineffective means than just throwing money out the back of a gun truck? What is the measure for effectiveness?
The caveat that more study is needed seems like nothing more than an open pitch for more cash to fund more studies, but, at what point does this kind of gratuitous research, not based on an actual analysis of the subject matter, get appropriately restyled as PR?
What does it mean?
Perry's posted an update to
Perry's posted an update to the article mentioned above - looks like just Palestine was being suggested for a move, not Israel and Palestine
The idea that Israel and the
The idea that Israel and the Gulf States need to have a separate command and 4-star is also repeated with India (PACOM) and Pakistan (CENTCOM). I'm not sure that the current geographic combatant command boundaries for EUCOM, CENTCOM, and AFRICOM make sense. State divides the world differently (often by shared languages such as Arabic), and Israel and the Arab states have the same Assistant Secretary, as do India and Pakistan.
That said, suggestions by career officials/military officers on making any changes to the U.S. - Israel security arrangements (including noting the current Israeli government's policies and actions make achieving USG objectives in the Arab world and Afghanistan-Pakistan more difficult) are a third rail with Congress, Israel's supporters in the U.S., and certain media outlets. U.S. - Israel policy is a blood sport in Washington, and as the comments show, often produce more heat than light.
What could Petraeus do about
What could Petraeus do about the impact the Arab-Israeli dispute is having on his AOR? Will he say something to Israel that has not been said? Does CENTCOM have a different foreign policy from EUCOM?
Does Petraeus plan on stationing troops on the old armistice line? I don't think so. Actually, this could be a good way to pressure Syria, no?
Interesting Fnord: The logic
Interesting Fnord:
The logic behind the argument is that the US feels it needs to maintain the pro-Western Arab block for the scheduled withdrawal of American troops from Iraq in August, and then later from Afghanistan, and that this block will crumble without a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Gilboa said.
“This is not the case,” he argued. “This logic ignores the interest the pro-Western Arab countries have in maintaining good relations with the West, and in preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
That's some cold-nosed realpolitik, isn't it? We'll just keep pushing the Palestinians out of Jerusalem and the West Bank using every dirty tactic in the book, while claiming they're the ones undermining peace, and the Gulf Arabs will have no choice but to go along with it, or risk an Iranian takeover! The U.S. just has to be really strict with the Gulf Arabs, is all!
Everyone knows Israel has a hundred plus nuclear weapons, and that's a major destabilizing influence in the region.
As far as "speaking for all Jews" - Foxman is full of it. Take a look at these guys, for example:
http://www.nkusa.org/activities/demonstrations/20100102.cfm
The irrational behavior by the Netan-yahoo neocon element is harming U.S. troops by providing more ammunition for the Taliban and Al Qaeda recruting efforts - any idiot could see that. That PR line has worn out.
It seems like a very
It seems like a very political issue. This move indirectly impacts "Eurpopean Identity/Affiliation" versus being consigned to the Middle East, and deals with the hopes and fears of Europeans, Turks, and Israelis. It has been said before that incorporating both Turkey and Israel into the EU-NATO paradigm would go far towards regional stability in the Middle East. Would Israel need nukes if it was a full-fledged NATO member like Turkey? I'd point out the point of view of many Europeans toward this but it would violate the editorial policy regards the language of racial prejudice... Expect some happy European military officers over political ramifications of word Israel would be part of CENTCOM.
Took a quick peek at Eli's
Took a quick peek at Eli's presentation. Have not read it all,but I can see your comments about quantitative analysis. I will have to look at what he is trying to say with the math. The effectiveness of CERP funding depends on your objective. That is what Eli is saying and it a 1 + 1 = 2 conclusion (motherhood statement). I know for a fact that truck loads of $100 bills all neatly stacked on pallets were brought in to IRAQ to pay contractors in cash (Not sure if it was all CERP). Not to rehash all of Eli's paper, I really question if it makes sense to inject so much money into a system with out making the system sustainable. It was never the US plan to make IRAQ the 51st state! For the US to leave, IRAQ has to sustain itself (ditto on the cash for loyalty program in Afghanistan) . CERP was a tactic, not a strategy. How we did CERP IRAQ would make a good discussion for the effective use on tax payer dollars. That discussion on Afghanistan is coming up in our near future (always happens post war). The FOCUS should be on what happens when your forces leave, CERP has to be knited in to stategy and looked at from that perspective.
My two cents on CENTCOM.
I can see the arguments about making Israel part of CENTCOM. At the same time, you are making a statement about how all the "COMS" interact with each other. Think about it. If the interaction was seamless, there would not be an issue except the perception of people outside the system. Tampa would love the business. Seeing that the space center is slowing quickly, Florida would enjoy any jobs it creates.
Think I would consider the idealogical differences of the region. If Isreal is put in the same "COM" as the rest of the ME pack, that COM is right in the center of any regional disputes. Now this is were we all say, "isn't that the whole point". Well consider this. Who do you want to do your foreign policy? CENTCOM or the State Department/POTUS.
1For the jerk who made the
1For the jerk who made the comment "Operation Liebenstraum" Are saying if Jews build homes in their own land (which actually includes the West bank and Jordan ,see League of Nations, San Remo agreement) they are Nazis. You can't be as stupid and uninformed as you sound. .Israel has the right to build anywhere in the West bank by international Law. You've heard of international Law.?
2. The fictitious group aka Palestinians have no legal right to live on the West bank except what Israel grants them.
3. The word occupation is used in describing Israel's control of the trespassers aka as the Fakestinians . However, the last governmental entity which had legitimate control of the West bank was the Ottoman Empire. Since it no longer exists , by int' l law, there cannot be an occupation.
4. . The Last governmental entity which had control of the Holy Land was the League of Nations . They granted the Jewish people political control over the land which includes the phony country of Jordan, the West bank, and Israel. The evil empire Britain, were caretakers, but they illegally gave away 73% of the Jewish homeland to King Abdullah who had absolutely no connection to the Holy Land.
5. The group the Fakestinians, that President 57 States/Austrian speaking Obama loves so much have no connection to the Holyland . They were allowed and encouraged to move from Egypt , Lebanon, and Syria into the Jewish national homeland from 1922 to 1948,while the evil empire prohibited Jews from living in their own homeland knowing they faced certain death. So the "Palestinians " have no connection to the Holy Land despite what the very ignorant trio thinks.
Whatever the totally incompetent Jew-hating Obama does to harm Israel , his time in office is limited. Let him shove the Bunker busters ..... Israel will develop their own . Just as they are the world leaders in development and production of UAVs.
"...Literally, some of the
"...Literally, some of the ideas and projects were so bald-faced stupid and unproductive that you wondered whether it would be easier to just load skids of US greenbacks into the back of a C-130 and scatter it to the winds.."
Perhaps you've never heard of the US Congress. Or the Federal Reserve?
Ummmm, methinks you got it
Ummmm, methinks you got it the wrong way tough hombre. Instead of Israel being moved into CENTCOM, howz about Petraeus showing some equal opportunity and treating Israel just like the space age, nuclear powered super MOSSAD intelligence gathering supra scientific phenomenon it is? (howz come Petraeus does not employ any arabic speaking Jews? Neither does the CIA for that matter). Seems just as well if CENTCOM could be relocated under Tzva Hagana LeYisra'el. To equate the terrorist capabilities of of a fictional palestinian nation with the military professionalism of the IDF is rediculous. The Dayton Brigade is being built to destroy Israel, and us Sonorans have taking notice of that. Respect you blog but you give too much credit to the obnoxious fakestinians and their really neat terrorst society than you should. By the way, I was never a Ranger but I was proud to serve under the late Major James M. Winters in Germany in 1974.
Apparently, to call the
Apparently, to call the policies of Jewish State "Operation Lebensraum" is not considered "hateful, intended to intimidate or harass". Sometimes you just need one peek.
The idea that Israel and the
The idea that Israel and the Gulf States need to have a separate command and 4-star is also repeated with India (PACOM) and Pakistan (CENTCOM). I'm not sure that the current geographic combatant command boundaries for EUCOM, CENTCOM, and AFRICOM make sense. State divides the world differently how to jump higher kettlebell exercises
(often by shared languages such as Arabic), and Israel and the Arab states have the same Assistant Secretary, as do India and Pakistan.
Whatever the totally incompetent Jew-hating Obama does to harm Israel , his time in office is limited. Let him shove the Bunker busters ..... Israel will develop their own . Just as they are the world leaders in development and production of UAVs.
Gen. Petraeus was in charge
Gen. Petraeus was in charge of Centcom. He was among the first to call that Israeli actions were causing deaths of US forces. And I think he was promoting a policy that was beneficial to US and peace in the region and this report reflects that.
While Israel needs to show that Hamas and Hizbollah are evil incarnate and thus justify its Nazi like genocide in Lebanon and Palestine. The worst one is the starvation of 1.5 million Palestinians half of whom are children. thank you, daniel digi sport online
I understand that is
I understand that is pedantic, however I've the tough period getting critically a study which tends to make this type of hash associated with lingo that is main towards the tale. Perry creates which "UCP indicates 'unified combatant order,a such as CENTCOM.inch Nicely, absolutely no, really, this does not imply which whatsoever. This indicates "Unified Order Strategy,inch that is the actual record which geographically delimits every International Combatant Command's AOR. Shifting Israel in order to CENTCOM might need a modification towards the UCP.
In a occasion, it is not really heading in order to occur. Should you believe the development associated with AFRICOM offers freaked individuals away regarding Ough.Utes. army goals, simply wait Halloween costume ideas 2010 around till Israel as well as Palestine tend to be incorporated within what is usually recognized to become the actual United states warfighting order. We acknowledge which Age bracket Petraeus discovers this bothersome to possess issues which keep upon their objective not really incorporated in the AOR, making him or her impotent in order to deal with a few of the basic problems which generate battle presently there..
. however them's the actual breaks or cracks.
Regardless of exactly what Robert Haddick states tend to be current constructive developments within civil-military relationships, this particular, personally, is definitely an instance from the dangerous erosion from the separating collection in between Combatant Commander as well as local potentate. Appreciating how the Israel-Palestine battle has upon additional United states safety pursuits within the area, which Israeli measures possess the possible in order to irritate Numerous foes within the area, this particular is not the issue for that army in order to resolve.
The debate of EUCOM with
The debate of EUCOM with regards Israel has been there for a while now. With the changes of the political arena in the past few decades and also with the ongoing West-Bank issues, the main concerns were in some kind of pendulum. It would be highly unlikely to see a proper solution for this issue. John from ipad accessories
There aren't any clear
There aren't any clear deviation from the strategies of the Israelis from their ancestors who ruled their country previously. Still the footpaths of them prevail in the current political and economic situations. People love to see a change in their approach. John from Car Accessories
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Gen. Petraeus was in charge
Gen. Petraeus was in charge of Centcom. He was among the first to call that Israeli actions were causing deaths of US forces. And I think he was promoting a policy that was beneficial to US and peace in the region and this report reflects hemorrhoids that.
Despite what Robert Haddick
Despite what Robert Haddick alleges are recent positive trends in civil-military relations, this, for me, is an example of the harmful erosion health insurance of the dividing line between Combatant Commander and regional potentate. Appreciating that the Israel-Palestine conflict bears on other American security interests in the region, and that Israeli actions have the potential to inflame America's enemies in the region, this isn't a problem for the military to solve.
looks like a very political
looks like a very political issue. This movement indirectly impacts "Eurpopean identity or affiliation" versus being sent to the Middle East, and deals with the hopes and fears of Europeans, Turks and Israelis. It has been said before the accession of Turkey and Israel in the paradigm of the EU and NATO will go to regional stability in the Middle East. Israel need nuclear weapons if it were a NATO member with full rights like Turkey? I note the view of many Europeans towards this, but it would violate editorial policy regarding the language of racial prejudice Wait a few European military happy political ramifications of the word of Israel would be part of Central Command.
anime
looks like a very political
looks like a very political issue. This movement indirectly impacts "Eurpopean identity or affiliation" versus being sent to the Middle East, and deals with the hopes and fears of Europeans, Turks and Israelis. It has been said before the accession of Turkey and Israel in the paradigm of the EU and NATO will go to regional stability in the Middle East. Israel need nuclear weapons if it were a NATO member with full rights like Turkey? I note the view of many Europeans towards this, but it would violate editorial policy regarding the language of racial prejudice ... Wait a few European military happy political ramifications of the word of Israel would be part of Central Command.
anime
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