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On Drone Strikes
Tom Ricks is the one who usually gets the interns at CNAS to do the spade work on his blog, but I was talking with intern Matt Irvine about an event he attended on drone strikes recently and, struck by some of the things Bruce Riedel in particular said (like the fact that he was sceptical of any and all figures produced by the U.S. government on the strikes), I asked Matt to write up a synopsis for the blog (since it also nicely dovetails with another good debate we had this week).
Is there a better place to discuss human intelligence, covert action and targeted assassination than the International Spy Museum? Probably not.
So it was fitting for the museum to host a discussion of the CIA’s Predator drone program in Pakistan on Wednesday. The panel of Tom Parker, Peter Bergen and Bruce Riedel, offered some of the best commentary and analysis of the Predator program to date.
Parker, from Amnesty International, started off with a healthy dose of skepticism about U.S. government data, citing frequent inaccurate battlefield reporting. Riedel concurred by saying, "I am skeptical of numbers ... I am skeptical of people who claim they have found the solution -- I see a lot of hubris right now."
Commenting on recent trends in Pakistan, Bergen argued that U.S. and Pakistani interests are aligned now more than ever and that the program has compromised the safe haven in the FATA. Nonetheless, only 9% of Pakistanis have a favorable view of the program. Later on, Riedel made the point clear, “Are the Pakistanis comfortable with this? Hell no.” But the program goes on.
The program “only operates because of old fashion spying,” leading targeted groups to worry about “traitors in their midst,” says Riedel. This is a legacy of a “human intelligence infrastructure” established during the late Bush administration.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst, took issue with Leon Panetta’s 2009 claim that the drone strikes are “the only game in town.” They aren’t, and that’s a good thing. The strikes, according to Riedel, are part of a broader global strategy to fight al Qaeda.
The drone program, as analyzed by Bergen at the New America Foundation, is not just targeting al Qaeda. Instead, it is attacking a larger Pakistani Taliban network. According to Riedel, “al Qaeda operates in a syndicate of groups with no single leader, no single agenda.”
Citing the cases of abu Dujanah al Khorasani, who carried out the December 30th suicide attack at a CIA base in Khost, and Ilyas Kashmiri, the organizer of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Riedel argued that individuals operate between one group and another…“This is a multilayered, intricate and operationally driven syndicate.”
The drone program is just part of Obama’s broader strategy against al Qaeda, which is four parted: First, aggressively pursue al Qaeda and its allies in the safe haven. Second, go after al Qaeda’s financing in new ways. Third, diplomatically engage the world to isolate al Qaeda and its supporters. Tellingly, this week’s nuclear summit’s punch-line was the al Qaeda threat. Third, attack the al Qaeda narrative and ideology. According to Riedel, President Obama’s Cairo speech was a point for point refutation of the bin Laden-Zawahiri narrative. This is one of the reasons why the President is pushing heavily on the Israel-Palestine peace process.
Al Qaeda and its allies have adapted to counter the drone program in the last year. Recent plots, including Ft. Hood and the Christmas Day demonstrate that al Qaeda has realized they “don’t need a home run, they’ll single, they’ll take a bunt.” The counter-attack in Khost and the Mumbai attacks are two additional responses to the drone program. The first struck at the human intelligence networks feeding the targeting operation and the CIA personnel closest to it. The second was a harbinger for the future, an attempt to inflame India-Pakistan tensions and divert attention from the FATA. Riedel predicted another major terrorist operation in India in the next six months.
Metrics for success are often blurry but Riedel tried to offer some. First, post-mortem tributes to killed jihadists offer measures of effectiveness. Second, al Qaeda propaganda can be measured. Most interestingly, Ayman al Zawahiri, who used to be al Qaeda’s “Chatty Cathy” has been silent since December 2009 (notably before the CIA base attack). “He may have left the FATA,” speculates Riedel. Third, the sophistication and frequency of al Qaeda and affiliate operations. And fourth, the presence of al Qaeda operatives in Pakistani cities. Are leaders leaving the FATA?
No matter their merits, the use of drones is unlikely to expand beyond the tribal areas, says Riedel. FATA is unique, “you couldn’t do what we’re doing here in other parts of the world.” The FATA has a 5th century infrastructure and is not urbanized. Expanding programs into Baluchistan would increase collateral damage and cross Pakistani red lines.
Finally, Riedel cautioned against becoming “drone addicted…This is going to be a war of attrition,” but there will be no USS Missouri. The Predator is a tactical instrument to degrade current enemy capabilities and ranks, and must fit within a comprehensive regional strategy to counter al Qaeda and its allies.
> the President is pushing
> the President is pushing heavily on the Israel-Palestine peace process
he is? It's certainly not visible from outside. Just words are not pushing heavily.
As COL T.E. Lawrence once
As COL T.E. Lawrence once said, "the best weapon is a knife. The worst is probably the airplane."
One negative outcome of the
One negative outcome of the drone campaign that you only allude to in terms of migrating leadership structures, is that it has also (IMO) accelerated the infiltration of TTP and associates into Pakistan proper (Sind, Punjab, etc.). That might turn out to be more costly than the actual benefit of the drone strikes.
The connection between
The connection between al-Qaeda and Hizb ut Tahrir that carried out Mumbai attacks looks very far fetched to me, otherwise it's an interesting analysis. So Obama seeks to debunk bin Laden by quarreling with Israel? Does he understand that those who listen to bin Laden object not to some variation of Israel's borders, but to the very existence of the Jewish state, and each time he reaffirms "ironclad commitment" to Israel's security, he defeats his own purpose?
@ مايك بن مايك
@ مايك بن مايك You said "As COL T.E. Lawrence once said, "the best weapon is a knife. The worst is probably the airplane" Isn't that what the US Navy insisted until Billy Mitchell showed them the error of that way of thinking?
Lawrence was referring to a
Lawrence was referring to a specific kind of warfare (insurgency/counterinsurgency) based on his experiences with the Arab Revolt against the Ottoman Turks.
The Navy insisted that a Battleship is the best weapon, not a knife. They made this argument within the context of a conventional war.
Apples and Oranges.
Sailani, interesting point
Sailani, interesting point and question regarding the efficacy of pushing TTP and militant leadership out of the FATA. Riedel and Bergen both discussed this. They argued that in 2004 the senior AQ leadership left Pakistani cities because they are too dangerous (SIGINT, HUMINT, police..."too many eyes and ears") after the KSM arrest and others. They decided to go to FATA where there are fewer "eyes and ears" and they had friendly hosts and safe haven. Now, after two years of drone strikes and the Pakistani army operations in 2009-10, they are moving back into the cities. However, the cities are just as dangerous for them as they were in 2004, but it is their only option.
On the other hand, the interesting question I was left wondering is, if the AQ idea adopts the "single" or "bunt strategy"...is that a good thing? Instead of waiting for the beehive to act, you are letting each bee attack whenever it sees fit.
Mitchell wasn't talking
Mitchell wasn't talking about crushing insurgents or assassinating terrorists:
Mitchell's concept of a battleship's vulnerability to air attack under "war-time conditions" would be vindicated after his death; a number of warships were sunk by air attack alone during World War II. The battleships Conte di Cavour, Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma, Prince of Wales, Roma, Musashi, Tirpitz, Yamato, Schleswig-Holstein, Impero, Limnos, Kilkis, Marat, Ise and Hyūga were all put out of commission or destroyed by aerial attack including bombs, air-dropped torpedoes and missiles fired from aircraft.
Other historical ideas for dealing with insurgencies? Try Churchill in Mesopotamia in the early 1920s (no evidence exists that gas was actually used, however)
"I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes. The moral effect should be so good that the loss of life should be reduced to a minimum. It is not necessary to use only the most deadly gasses: gasses can be used which cause great inconvenience and would spread a lively terror and yet would leave no serious permanent effects on most of those affected."
Mussolini's campaign in Ethiopia was a different matter, as he killed thousands of villagers with mustard gas.
The world's become a more civilized place - not even the most psychotic neocon lunatic has proposed using chemical or biological weapons in Pakistan and Afghanistan - except for the eradication of opium crops, I suppose.
Love the USS Missouri
Love the USS Missouri reference..Thanks for contining the blog no matter how many times you say its done..
On the twitter comment re
On the twitter comment re opposing financial reform: how does establishing a $50 Billion dollar permanent slush fund for gamblers constitute "reform"?
If you believe that "wind them down" crap, call the ER to sign up for the free Obamacare (which many have done!).
It'll be just like Christmas.
I'm not sure it's the
I'm not sure it's the numbers that deserve the most scepticism.
What I wonder about is how dangerous some of the people targeted by drone strikes in FATA are to us. Dangerous to Pakistanis or even Indians is something else. I'm fine with people fitting that description getting blown up, but if we're the ones doing it the Obama administration a) had better be getting a lot in exchange and b) needs to be very careful that we're not fighting someone else's war while telling the American public we're fighting our own.
In that connection, I can't help but wonder that all the humint we are getting to assist our target selection hasn't led any of our drones to bin Laden or Zawahiri, the two figures whose elimination might prompt some Americans to call for declaring victory and leaving Pakistan's problems for Pakistan to solve.
"I'm fine with people
"I'm fine with people fitting that description getting blown up"
A little callous don't you think?
Perhaps in saving the lives of Pakistanis we can turn them to our side and garner intelligence that leads to AQ leaders.
@Abu Arabic, "Perhaps in
@Abu Arabic,
"Perhaps in saving the lives of Pakistanis we can turn them to our side and garner intelligence that leads to AQ leaders."
Yes, and perhaps if we completely de-regulate Wall Street we'll all be rich. Also, I am going to leave out some cookies and milk for Santa Claus, and take a trip to Ireland to find a leprechaun. I hear he can bring peace between Israel and the Filistines.
It's a callous world. And with us retracting from the rest of it, going broke and unable to defend ourselves effectively since it bothers cocktail party sensibilities it will get a lot more callous.
Meanwhile it looks like one of our robot assassins (they're great - they don't need lawyers, yet) may have gotten lucky...
Supposedly we killed Al-Masri and Omar Al-Baghdadi (again!).
Will Jason Al-Masri resurrect again? Who knows.
I wonder if he's really a robot....
There's a difference in
There's a difference in choosing not to do something about an action and being 'fine' with it. Whether or not we use American force to stop it, I don't think Anyone should be 'fine' with the slaughter of innocent men, women, and children.
Elf, don't be nasty. W. M.,
Elf, don't be nasty. W. M., please pay attention. I deprecate at all times the deaths of innocent people. My point above was that there are a lot of people in the FATA who are far from innocent, who may, in fact, be extremely dangerous... but who are not necessarily dangerous to us. We need very good reasons to use our forces against them.
It may be that the Obama administration has such reasons. It may even be that all the people we've blown up in the FATA are committed to killing Americans and restoring al Qaeda to Afghanistan. I'm not setting anything up here; I honestly don't know. What I do know is that our intelligence sources in Pakistan are mostly Pakistanis, who have their own causes and quarrels. We can't avoid these altogether, but I'd like to be sure we're not any more deeply entangled with them than we need to be. Right now, I'm not.
Zathras, the problem with
Zathras, the problem with your statement is that our intelligence sources in Every country are the locals. That's how HUMINT works. In Vietnam it was the Vietnamese, in East Germany it was East Germans. Yes, every source may have an agenda, but that's what our intelligence professionals are supposed to be trained to take into account in their analysis.
I read recently, and if I
I read recently, and if I had been really paying attention I would be able to cite its place ( could have been this blog) but someone pointed out that no matter how loyal or on side I may be, no matter how prepared I am to give you support, succor, logistic, supplies, Intel or actual boot on ground as local forces, the moment you mistakenly kill my daughter/son etc then you make me an insurgent.
Now I think drone strikes have their place in modern warfare. As left as I can be I still think that sometimes the ends do justify the means, and while I'd rather have Al-Masri and Omar Al-Baghdadi on trial for crimes against humanity in the Hague, I prefer them dead to alive and kicking.
My real point is that as people have pointed out Drones are HUMINT essential, without the necessary HUMIT we cannot get the right balance of strikes, those that get the go head because we know that the target is good as opposed to those that get canned because we are not sure ( but avoid the scenario whereby we turn supports into charred remains).
Does anyone have other
Does anyone have other viable options for the FATA besides drone strikes? Relying on HUMINT - and of course we Humans are flawed - or else we would not make war. As we like to send white red haired women as our team leads to these places we're not likely to get someone close to the enemy.
I have one for sh!ts and giggles - we mine our rich ethnic vein here in the USA and get our own operatives in there. This would take time of course. And of course Ivy Leaguers (the Intel and govt classes) would have to hire someone Brown for something other than livery and to sooth/tickle their neurotic consciences. Then there's the security weenies who will make the amazing discovery that they have ties to "the old country" and this will hold up clearances.
This effort would of course take the better part of a decade at least - if you overcame the obstacles above.
WM - google the Church Committee. Or the Schumer clause (you can't use dubious characters in Intel!?!). You don't spend decades publicly investigating, hobbling and gutting your intel agencies and then expect good HUMINT. Hence we will continue to rely on locals, and continue to get played.
1. Our rich ethnic vein are
1. Our rich ethnic vein are Americans. Take a young man who speaks uninflected American English, transport him to his ancestral homeland and his reaction will be: "Get me out of this hellhole!"
2. Have seen it on numerous occasions.
3. A great strength is the attractiveness of and comfort provided by our culture.
4. Ask 20+ million illegal immigrants.
5. Ivy league intel and gov't classes? So cynical.
V/R JWest
@JWest, I am a cynic about
@JWest,
I am a cynic about our "elites". Guilty.
On rich ethnic vein mining: the NYPD intel unit already did it. And the continue to do so: "Securing the City" by Christopher Dickey. In fact the NYPD has been doing it for over a century. El Paso L/E it is reported is doing it now.
Our culture is attractive and comfortable because we are still relatively free and dynamic.
The answer is to ask the youth (on whom I am a strong "buy") to share in the sacrifice to defend that which they have come to value - and to ask them if they value it, do they cherish it, and will they defend it.
Cynic or not, when you put it in those terms, the people you need will step up.
I don't understand how you
I don't understand how you can draw any conclusions about Al Qaeda's strategy from the the Fort Hood attack, which had no connection to AQ Central and only a very tenuous one to AQAP. Similarly blowing up an airplane is maybe not a "home run" but not exactly a "bunt."
I have been party to the
I have been party to the principal reason why the CIA Predator and Reaper program isn't what it could be: they have some real retards in the seat and at the controls. (Please don't think this an indictment of all Pred/Reaper folks, some of them are quite talented.)
To wit:
1. Reporting that a "vehicle has gone into the river at [location]." No, you douche, that is a ferry ramp. Vehicles get on boats there. I understand you're in a broom closet watching video feeds in Nevada, but holy cow brother. Surely you have at least seen these things in books or on television.
2. Reporting that "[a number of people] are digging along the side of the road and engaged in suspicious activity." No, you douche, they're building a wall. They've been working on that wall for two weeks. I know that because I've seen them, and even if I hadn't I would have been able to associate gravel, a cement mixer, an incomplete building, and people shoveling sh!t onto the top of the wall with actual construction work.
3. Reporting people as possible military age males engaging friendly forces. No, you douche, those are Afghan National Army and you would have known that if you were paying attention to any of the radio traffic about the forward line of troops. Furthermore, did you notice they're fifty meters from our vehicles? Did that not strike you as an odd place for twenty men dressed the same and pointing their weapons in the opposite direction of where our people are?
4. That is not the correct compound. Seriously. No, really. You're seventy meters off. No, you douche, I am not kidding and you are not looking in the right place. How many times do we have to tell you THAT IS THE WRONG BUILDING AND THIS IS WHY NOTHING IS HAPPENING THERE? LOOK OVER HERE. YES, SEE, THE BAD MEN ARE HERE. THANK YOU FOR COMING TO THE PARTY, NOW PAY ATTENTION PLEASE.
The point that I am making is that all of the interactions I may or may not have had with these individuals points toward a distinct lack of knowledge concerning the terrain they're over. Additionally, there seems to be a serious disconnect between what people are seeing and the reports they are providing to ground force commanders concerning patterns of life.
The solution that I would see here is to assign certain operators and certain crews to smaller areas, or at least ensure they're digesting product from people in the vicinity of where they plan on operating that day. You'd think that terrain briefs would be part of the mission package, but the people on the other end of those cameras just don't have a coherent grasp on the simplest forms of imagery analysis. I'm not asking for people to spend years training, but again, at least be able to look at something and make a determination that isn't consistently stupid.
Overall, the impact that this has is that if the people staring at the ground don't know what it is they are looking at (or don't care because they're mercenary contractors) then the overall collection effort is crippled. CIA needs to be recruiting based on actual experience in the region and not on how many other [insert contracting company name here] references they have. It's disappointing that a program with such potential is ultimately being hamstrung by poor hiring practices and a lack of accountability from management. It's understandable that you can't have good visibility on every target in a wide area, but at least talking to the intel people on the ground would be preferable to hazarding a guess that is so wrong it makes other crews crack up laughing and winds up as a finalist in "funny quote of the month."
Sorry for the narrowly focused, possibly off-topic rant.
Hello. What I meant to say
Hello.
What I meant to say was uncheck the low priority mode.
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