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Why $1 Trillion in Untapped Mineral Deposits Has Me Depressed
A host of readers sent me this article about Afghanistan's vast natural resource find, but Erin "Charlie" Simpson was the only one whose pessimism about the find matched my own. I have been reading Paul Collier's The Bottom Billion
The presence of civil war is not reason alone to give up on Afghanistan and bring the boys home. I have previously argued that yes, Afghanistan is in a civil war, and that we should take sides in that civil war to advance U.S. and allied interests. That's basically what we are doing today. But counterinsurgency strategies rest on the assumption that you can eventually weaken anti-government forces and reduce levels of violence to the point where a political process can take place in more peaceful circumstances. We now have one trillion fresh reasons why this assumption might not be valid for Afghanistan. I am not yet sure what this means for either U.S. and allied interests or the current strategy. I more or less agree with today's editorial in the New York Times that our current strategy "still seems like the best chance to stabilize Afghanistan and get American troops home." But as the editorial noted, the news last week from Afghanistan was terrible. And I'm not sure this week's news is any better.
It's not actually new news.
It's not actually new news. It's an old story... 2007 at least. BTW how exactly did they come up with $ 1 trillion? How about this story was put out to give a glimmer of hope to the entire adventure. It's pure propaganda:
Don't worry the Afghans will be able to pay for their security forces, education, roads and health (all currently running at least twice over GNP) after we leave...so let's stick with it for a decade or so more so we (more likely the Chinese) can exploit all this wealth.
Afghanistan has no wealth,
Afghanistan has no wealth, only death and it's full of it. There is no hope for it and many other counties which we occupy, force into using our currency us dollars and UN and our security forces use the war for funding their retirement, paying for their half million dollars homes. Ask any contractor, USAID, US Diplomat in Afghanistan if they have a mortgage and when or how they plan to pay it off... Most spent 2 to 4 years in Afghanistan and take home 500 thousand for 2 years to 1 million dollars for 4 years service in Afghanistan or Iraq.
The war machine keeps turning.
I, too, thought of Collier's
I, too, thought of Collier's argument after seeing this story. All I could see in my mind was the DRC. I hope to be proven wrong.
That's a cop-out and you
That's a cop-out and you know it: saying it's a civil war means that it is no longer an insurgency, and if it's not an insurgency then COIN doctrine does not apply, and if it doesn't apply then it cannot be determined whether it is valid or not, and you and your bunch are off the hook, never having to put your money where your mouths are.
Stop playing rhetorical tricks, oh scribbler of classical Greek. Put your theories to the test.
Let's get one thing straight
Let's get one thing straight it's not Afghan and it's not ours, it's untapped Chinese resources that just happens to be in Afghan soil.
Marja-centric, why did you
Marja-centric, why did you drop out of high school? Weren't retards accommodated?
Marja, You're arguing at a
Marja,
You're arguing at a Ringwraith. Exum slipped the precious on his finger a long time ago. He can still pretend to be a mortal man, but that will pass soon.
He belongs to Washington now - as surely as a crackhead belongs to crack. He will live forever in his policy impact. Why should he bandy words with you, a mortal man?
In Tolkien, there were only nine rings. In DC, there are over 9,000. And that's not even counting NGOs. Try casting that into Mount Doom! You'll need quite a crevasse.
Don't get mad. Get educated. Join the Froude Society. Because not all that glitters is gold.
I need lithium.
I need lithium.
Why's Marja-centric madly
Why's Marja-centric madly humping AM's muscular legs like a chihuahua in heat? Could Marja be J. Foust?
LOL @ "muscular legs"
LOL @ "muscular legs"
I wanted to make a clever
I wanted to make a clever joke about the Congo being peaceful, but the lord of the rings references and dog humping jokes makes me question whether AM's comments are only a step above youtube's
Both Politico and The
Both Politico and The Atlantic have posted critical stories regarding the timing of this story in the NYT, echoing the criticism in the first comment. Credit to The Monkey Cage for the link to The Atlantic post.
LOL @ "it's untapped Chinese
LOL @ "it's untapped Chinese resources that just happens to be in Afghan soil."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNDYuRC1DtU
Jewish headbutts a Jihadi. LOL
Well, it certainly wasn't me
Well, it certainly wasn't me who turned this board into Capitolist. Actually, if I had to choose between Youtube commenters and Hill staffers, I'd probably give the former a chance to run the world for a while. Change. And I mean, really, how much worse could they screw up Afghanistan?
What's frightening is that there are 6 billion people in the world, and only 0.0001% of them suspect that the United States Government, the most powerful intergalactic force in human history, is in the hands of a bunch of fifteen-year-olds who've just raided their older brother's stash of Milwaukee Beast. But shit, when you're buzzed, you're buzzed! Have a nice time and hope you don't get prosecuted.
There's finally a win
There's finally a win strategy for Astan.
Phase I - we get rid of our PC Centric Army by declaring victory. Anthro types and Scholars go home as well. A grateful nation thanks you.
Phase II - we replace them with all Contractors, with the lead contractor being - Sareth Fonseka. He needs a job if you haven't been following. He also knows how to win, and already has worked with the Chinese. Possibly us too. And there's some SLA types needing a job. They also know how to win.
Phase III - Dropping the inefficiency of us borrowing money to fight wars the Chinese benefit from, Phase II force wins (there's that word again, since you can't define it, rather like the "I" word, it eludes our B&B) and wins swiftly. The Afghans (remaining) seeing people who are finally serious and have attainable goals, rather than opposing visions of utopia, flock or stagger perhaps to PH II force's banner.
Phase IV (at last we get to do it right!): we pay off the Chinese all the money we owe them in minerals.
I'm available for Phase II and Phase IV (time to ca$h in).
If you wonder why we should pay off the Chinese with Astan's minerals - it's so we don't have to pay them off with West VA's, Alaska's, and the Gulf's. Which, if we leave the current bunch in DC long enough, will happen.
BTW my Nanna says the difference between the JVP and the Democrats is...the JVP are much more serious people.
"In The Loop" The US
"In The Loop"
The US President and UK Prime Minister fancy a war. But not everyone agrees that war is a good thing...
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1226774/
Mencius, you'll love it. DC types, you'll pick up pointers. For those of you who love the idea of foul mouthed Scottish political hacks walking round DC telling Doug Feither's they're c*nts, you'll be in heaven.
The Best part is Gordon Brown's Hatchet man telling a pubescent WH aide he should be in school puking in a toilet..actually not the best part, but it was pretty good.
I actually saw about half of
I actually saw about half of "In The Loop" but had to turn it off because the baby woke up. Maybe she was picking up bad telepathic vibrations about the world she's going to have to live in.
In Princess Paley's memoir of the Russian Revolution she quotes Chateaubriand (who was not a cut of beef): "Order revenges itself." I'm afraid the 20th century has proved Princess Paley somewhat optimistic. Where's the revenge, order?
One can always console oneself, however, with the best Wikipedia page ever: Glossary of the Greek military junta. Dimitrios Ioannidis! Tanned, rested and ready! Alas, I have searched in vain for an English translation of To Pistevo Mas. There is also the awesome opening scene of Z. Alas, the mildew seems to be winning. Well, crap, at least order tried.
At least Ioannidis and his weird crew realized the seriousness of the problem. What do we have? Sarah Palin. Excuse me for not recognizing the Party of Adult Supervision. Well, okay, Chris Christie isn't bad. But he's no Dimitrios Ioannidis. What do you think the source of the mildew is? Bulgaria? Curing mildew by electing Republicans is like curing lung cancer by smoking low-tar cigarettes.
Order will come. Sooner or later. My guess is: later, in a turban. I don't expect to like it, if I live to see it, but I'll like it more than government by teenager. Allahu akbar! Frankly, I'd rather parrot that shit than the shit I learned at Brown. BS always sounds better in a foreign language. Don't tell me I'm too old to memorize the Koran.
Perhaps this si a good time
Perhaps this si a good time to start ramping up the international effort. Or at least the Chinese security effort - if they are going to profit form these mineral deposits and they seem to be poised to do so around Aynak. Last time I checked the US was pulling security for the Chinese engineers as they prepped the area for copper exploitation.
For me this has always been the big WTF - why we haven;'t spent more time pressuring the Chinese to put boots on ground and put up a little blood for their treasure.
I can only see the situation getting worse.
If there are indeed minerals in them thar hills then the cost of getting them out should be inclusion in a multi national force.
Added benefit of defusing the US out to get us rhetoric, that;s hard to argue if the lads puling patrol are from PLA.
You know I was SHOCKED that
You know I was SHOCKED that underneath an untapped mountainous country there was oodles of minerals and ores to be mined. Since oil from Iraq is paying for that war, I'm sure we can do the same in Afghanistan. Pure genius I say!
Just shocked.
And then I found out that we're under attack from Zombies, but maybe if we harness them we can us them to pull all that ore out, plus the Taliban are probably afraid of them.
up up down down left right left right b a enter
newsweek.com
Lock your doors, get out the axe. And if you see Harvey Keitel run.
And yes that is the Contra cheat code.
Wow, I was planning on
Wow, I was planning on posting something relevant about the actual casualty rates of this week vs. last, but I think I agree with Bones now...
Yep lame string...with
Yep lame string...with little to no input above a 4th grade level.
Absolutely! Why, I know you
Absolutely! Why, I know you big-brained intellectuals were just itching for a conversation about the Duke of Alva and his seminal approach to hearts-and-minds counterinsurgency.
Egmont and Hoorn - traitors? Or misunderstood patriots, who with a little more cultural understanding could have become pillars of a new Catholic Holland? Alva and General Sarath Fonseka - compare and contrast. Who was the bloody-handed tyrant, who the big softy? Why does Fonseka prevail, and Alva fail? Bleeding-heart liberals, by any chance, in the court of Philip II? Through the Iberian legacy of Ceylon, is there a connection between them? And, most important, what would Alva do with Ahmed Wali Karzai?
I'm sure many of our scholars-in-power have thought deeply about these questions. And if not, it's never too late! Discuss.
"But counterinsurgency
"But counterinsurgency strategies rest on the assumption that you can eventually weaken anti-government forces and reduce levels of violence to the point where a political process can take place in more peaceful circumstances. " -Abu Muqawama, 2010
"One can do almost anything with brute force except salvage an unpopular government."- Bernard Fall, speech to the Naval War College, 1964
I for one don't believe for a minute that this Afghan current governt can ever bring about peace and stability. I've spend 18 months of the last two years in Afghanistan and see less and less hope for success or even dignified withdrawal because of dependence on GIRoA to Shape Up and Fly Right. Every policy instituted and every political appointment seems designed to undermine ISAF and to expand the personal power base. This new unexploited wealth will not help things, methinks...
But like HAMAS (and Hitler)
But like HAMAS (and Hitler) Karzai was elected!!
Colin S. Gray does an excellent job in "Another Bloody Century" of pointing out that you cannot ignore domestic politics in calculations of war, in this case I think Astan had elections to satisfy US domestic politics. It's not as if we hadn't learned several times you can't just jump into Democracy without certain conditions - like classical Liberalization - and education of the voters first.
David Sutton's of the World do you think anyone outside the Beltway and Brussels bubble cares about Internationalizing anything, or pretending to? With the Euro going fast and the dollar soon to follow as the world's reserve currency - turns out it's subject to the Laws of Gravity like everything else - it's amazing how fast the International Order unravels. The International Order was set up after WW2 and is based on the dollar as the World's reserve currency, Pax Americana, and World Trade - which means the US opens it's markets to favored trading partners. Well Pax Americana means America has to be able to shoot, kill, and win. Gone. The dollar as world's reserve currency - well gone as soon as everyone's scramble to find suitable replacements reaches the tipping point - gold, silver, and I suspect energy probably oil. Trade - America's markets may remain wide open but the Americans aren't buying. Except for food, gold and guns.
For those who are making their living on Astan worry not, one way or another this means we'll be staying for quite awhile. It's actually an improvement for all concerned, because now there's a reason for adults to take interest in the place. The adults will improve conditions by creating order for their own purposes, which will improve the lot of the remaining Afghans. The adult answer for us would be to use the mineral wealth to reduce our debt to the most immediate beneficiary which will be China. Worry not idealists, I'm sure you'll find a way however to use this vast treasure to further impoverish us and enrich the Chinese.
And humorous presentation or
And humorous presentation or not, just as the Sri Lankan's were shortly after their victory consulted by the Paks, they will find their way to Astan as well, if they haven't already. What do both "countries" have in common?
They understand that Constable Han is much more serious than Constable Sam.
Yup, im depressed too. Oil,
Yup, im depressed too. Oil, minerals etc is a bad thing. Any form of rentier economics is normally a bad thing. The only "good" example ever quoted at me is Norway. But they had a stable society and strong rule of law before starting. They also took the state-run approach.If Gary Faulkner were gay,
If Gary Faulkner were gay, his name would be Jack Bauer.
"One can do almost anything
"One can do almost anything with brute force except salvage an unpopular government."
Yeah, tell that to William the Conqueror. Tell it to Li Peng. Tell it to Abdur Rahman Khan:
"From that time Abdur Rahman was fairly seated on the throne at Kabul, and in the course of the next few years he consolidated his dominion over all Afghanistan, suppressing insurrections by a sharp and relentless use of his despotic authority."
(Note that the Western lack of interest in Afghan history between 1842 and 1980, from Elphinstone to Charlie Wilson, remains so complete that the Wikipedia page for Abdur Rahman Khan is still straight out of the 1911 Britannica. Hence it tells the inconvenient truth. Perhaps one of you sophisticated intellectuals can fix it. )
Those who forget history are doomed, period. One can do anything with "brute" force. If one couldn't, it wouldn't be force. A strong government is a popular government. 20 years after Tiananmen, the Chinese government has some of the highest public approval ratings in the world.
Why is that, Bernard Fall? Oh, that's right. You can't tell us, because you were killed by your pet rebels. Rebels need one thing: the rope. And those who lie about history deserve to step on it and get blown up.
LOL @ Mr. PC-COIN himself
LOL @ Mr. PC-COIN himself faints!
He could've just as easily
He could've just as easily said, "We can't win in Afghanistan", instead he chose a more theatrical route. the General's been watching a little too much 'Glee'.
This is old news apparently
This is old news apparently so I am not sure why it was suddenly played up. But it gives us an opportunity to do thought experiments and see how Afghanistan could possibly become a major mineral producer. Here are my scenarios, in increasing order of probability:
1. The Saudi model. One well organized family takes over the country in the name of Islam and in line with traditions of royal rule that have existed in the wider region for thousands of years. They get the infidels to come in and exploit the resource under fairly tightly controlled conditions. Said family makes billions but also spends a good deal to keep the population happy. Over two generations, the wealth transforms the country and the ruling family faces the usual problems of royal succession, transition to modern democracy and exploding Islamists, but thanks to billions of dollars in cash, manages to hold on.....
I think this one is unlikely because: the saudi royal famly took over BEFORE they found the oil. Once the lithium has been found, the stakes are far too high and this happy outcomes is pretty much foreclosed. Add to that the greater number of powerful interfering neighbours, the two generations of war that have already happened and have already ruined any traditional royalist possibilities, the greater number of armed men, the greater diffusion of military knowledge...I think this one is unlikely.
2. Colonial model. Occupying power enforces peace, sets up puppet regime. lives happily ever after.
I think not. The current "occupiers" (NATO) are not really functional as colonial powers anymore. The people hate foreign occupiers in general and have not been successfully colonized in recent times. etc. etc.
3. New world order model. ALL the great powers of the world (and that means America, China and Russia in this case) agree on what to do and cooperate to set up a functional regime that will allow modern companies from all these powers and others to come in and mine the place and will have enough legitimacy in Afghan eyes as well. Pakistan and Iran and India all cooperate enough with the project to make it work. "good taliban" are coopted into the Afghan regime.
Presumably, this is the "good American" dream for Afghanistan. Does anyone think it is working? Can it work?
4. Chinese world order. Once NATO makes a total hash of things, the Chinese buy out the contract and use the Pak army and those Dari speaking special forces they have been training for the last 10 years to stabilize neo-taliban rule. All-male Chinese work teams then come in to do the actual mining.
For various reasons, I think this dream scenario will not work as advertised. But I would say there is a 22% chance it will be tried and a hundred percent chance that some pakistanis and Afghans will get very very rich when it is tried out.
5. Endless civil war aka "lithium dreams".
http://seekingalpha.com/artic
http://seekingalpha.com/article/210067-afghan-lithium-and-other-mineral-...
http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME
http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/06/15/florida.air.base.arrests/
SOCOM and CENTCOM almost went under attack today according to the news, crazy stuff...or was it a USG Operative using a bogus ID with a car load of guns?
Now they are saying this dude and his girlfriend were AWOL, but I'm wondering if possibly they were a Red-Cell test to see if the security at McDill could be compromised? I've heard stories that Red-Cell, offices similar have been reactivated.
http://www.specialoperations.com/Navy/Red_Cell/Default.htm
Either way, this information making the news isn't good. If anti-war radicals are finally realizing the war for Iraq and Afghanistan aren't being run out of Washington D.C. and they NOW know everything is run out of Tampa, Florida.... how will that effect long term security for Tampa, FL?
Elf - all fair points, and
Elf - all fair points, and increasingly I find myself unwilling to refute them. I find my shroud of optimism slowly unraveling. I'm getting a beer.
I too was thinking of Paul
I too was thinking of Paul Collier when I first heard the story. But what did Collier suggest as a means to prevent or extricate a country from falling victim to this trap? I believe it was directing the money to a third-party or independant agency to minimize corruption. Given Afghanistans current culture and lack of educated technocrats or experts though, I fear Afganistan is likely to end up a DPRC rather than a Saudi Arabia.
I have always been interested in knowing though, why did Saudi Arabia end up as it did when oil was discovered and not fall into the trap of constant civic war? It is a relatively large country, both in population and physical size, so the possibility for effective revolt exists. Has anything been written about this? Can it be linked soley to a relatively homogeneic population and effective use of the segmentary organization of Arab Tribes by the Saudi royal family?
@David Sutton, Enjoy the
@David Sutton,
Enjoy the beer. Not personal.
Can some aspiring NCO not tell the CENTCOM 6 "Drink Water"? "Hydrate"?
This is what happens when you leave Officers with all other Officers for too long. Good Grief.
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who with a little more
who with a little more cultural understanding could have become pillars of a new Catholic Holland? Alva and General Sarath Fonseka - compare and contrast. Who was the bloody-handed tyrant, who the big softy? Why does Fonseka prevail, and Alva fail? Bleeding-heart liberals, by any chance, in the court of Philip II? Through the Iberian legacy of Ceylon, is there a connection between them? And, most important, what would Alva do with Ahmed Wali Karzai?
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