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Early Thoughts on Yemen
This weekend's news has already generated a lot of comment, and as I am not a bona fide Yemen expert, the best I can do in terms of analysis is point toward Greg Johnsen's piece in Foreign Policy as well as Leah Farrall's post on AQAP. (Two other people whose opinions I would be seeking right now would be Chris Boucek at Carnegie and April Alley at ICG.) The last thing I myself wrote on Yemen, with Rich Fontaine, I wrote a year ago, but as I read through it this morning, I think it is still pretty solid. (Like all things I write for CNAS, I sent it out for some external review beforehand to avoid saying something stupid.)
A few things have bothered me about the way in which the media has reported the bombing plot thus far, though. You'll remember that last week, concerning Central Africa, I wrote that policy-makers should ask four questions -- in sequence -- before considering an intervention:
- Will an intervention make the situation better, or worse?
- If better, should the U.S. government participate in this intervention?
- If yes, should the U.S. government lead this intervention?
- If yes, what should the U.S. government do?
Reading the Wall Street Journal on the way into work this morning, I could not help but notice the focus has been almost exclusively on Question #4. Typically, we Americans are always asking ourselves, What is our government doing? (And why isn't it doing more!)
Though I am not a Yemen expert, I have spent more time in 2010 elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula than in any other year, including two trips to Saudi Arabia and one to the UAE. I got the opportunity, during both of these trips, to speak to a variety of policy-makers in each country, and one of the things I wish U.S. reporters would do more of is ask some of Yemen's neighbors how they would solve the problems of Yemen. This latest plot was apparently tipped off by Saudi intelligence (BTW: shukran, ya ikhwani) and involved bombs passing through both Qatar and the UAE. So the other nations in the region have a bigger interest than we do in shepherding the demise of AQAP. I guess what I am trying to say here is that I want fewer articles with datelines from Washington and more articles with datelines from Doha and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. (One of the reasons I'm still feeling pretty good about that policy paper written last year is the stress it put on regional engagement and solutions.)
Also, we have now dodged two bullets from Yemen, but that does not mean we do not have the time to slow the bleep down and first gather a little situational awareness before screaming for policy makers to DO SOMETHING. As an Afghanistan expert tweeted this weekend, "Whenever something like the Yemen event the amateurs scream for revenge or bombs or ninjas. But people need to take a step back and THINK."
Leaving aside my stated policy preference for pirates over ninjas, I think that's pretty good advice.
First question in my mind --
First question in my mind -- is this a diversion? Are we making things too hot for the bad guys in Pakistan, so they want to draw our attention to Yemen?
Abu M: I’m glad that the
Abu M:
I’m glad that the APSR-induced bourbon stupor has gone away. I concur that your four questions (I’m Jewish, so asking four questions has special resonance for me) are good ones, and if not the only ones to ask, then certainly good (excellent) ones to ask. I would simply make a few minor points.
First, perhaps your second question ought to be amended to “How the US should participate,” although that is a critique which is minor at best, and probably implicit in your question.
Second, I would suggest that one thing to think about – and I wholeheartedly endorse your recommendation to *think* – and perhaps implicit in your post, is thinking about dogs which do not bark. In particular, Indonesia comes to mind as a country whose counterterrorism capabilities – Bali bombings notwithstanding, admittedly a substantial caveat – seem robust. The implications of Indonesian counterterrorism success – i.e., perhaps US willingness to overlook human rights violations – also bear contemplation, perhaps.
Third, as an initial aside, David Ignatius’s “Agents of Innocence” is a phenomenal book and, as a Lebanon expert, and an English major, you should read it yesterday. But the David Ignatius, book I’d recommend for thinking about how host nations in the Middle East conduct counterterrorism is “Body of Lies” (I haven’t seen the movie, so don’t think I’m basing the recommendation off *that*) – this, too, might be caveated as too much of a stretch, but maybe (admittedly, just maybe) I’m right in suggesting this recommendation.
ADTS
Please comment on Steve
Please comment on Steve Coll's wikileaks article in the NYer. We know you've seen it. Digitial version is subscriber only but this in no way should obstruct Coll's views from the discourse here.
Just a thought: Isnt the
Just a thought: Isnt the Iraqis natural allies in intel gathering, etc. in Yemen?
Visitor 1129, I have not,
Visitor 1129, I have not, actually, seen it. Is it this week? I am busy with writing and have not been able to even download the new NYer onto my Kindle much less read it. ADTS: Thanks for the recommendations and comments!Available in digital version
Available in digital version today. Short but great comment piece. Coll rules like Kelly Slater. And keep up the good work, AM.
Say Good-Bye to Iraq and
Say Good-Bye to Iraq and Afghanistan,
Say Hello to Somalia and Yemen,
And by next year Southern Sudan.
Ain't Politically Correct-COIN Grand?
Abu M: Thanks for the kind
Abu M:
Thanks for the kind words. At the risk of appearing an indecisive waffler, upon further reflection, I'd excise "Body of Lies" from my "recommendation list." Thanks again.
ADTS
Leaving aside the fact that
Leaving aside the fact that this is obviously a theatre where Ninja's will operate better than Pirates (mountainous special operations vs. amphibious landing with NGFS support), I whole heartedly agree with your assessment here. I'm one of those conservative war hawks that has no problem believing any problem can be solved with the proper application of force. However, the more I read the more I'm persuaded that ‘proper application’ does not always need to be a MAGTF. In many ways it seems that to win the "the savage wars of peace", we're better off using local forces who understand the culture and are less susceptible to the horrors of a western media.
To comment on Fnord, I think the Iraqi's have enough problems with internal security and dealing with Iran right now to bother about this. As much as I'm sure they're concerned from a long term point of view, I doubt they have the resources to take any immediate interest.
Uncle Tony's 5 for Fighting
Uncle Tony's 5 for Fighting comes to mind
The R2P clause and 43's "When in doubt - Knock 'em out" are prett hot too.
Exactly when did you begin
Exactly when did you begin to favor Pirates over Ninjas? As a Ninja isn't that a bit off the map?
It must be having a girlfriend, cuz we know Ninjas are too busy eating snakes in swamps to have one.
==========================================
As far as US Intervention, we need to "intervene" at the GZ Mosque, Columbia ME studies, the ACLU and Canada.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/10/31/102932/jury-sentences-child-soldie... <+=== Good news Progressives!
Your latest little sexy Beast is basically walking.
That's some good news for you Progressives. Khadar will walk in 3 years. He'll be about 27/28 years old, a hero, and back off to the jihad! Possibly as a celebrity recruiter!! TMZ, maybe a former Jihadi reality show. Jihadi Shore, as it were.
As far as who gets whatever fruitless fucking snipe hunt in Yemen -- use Pirates. less rules, more results (I mean mercs).
Our young Lions are so tied up by the Progressive Donkey's leading them that our Land Forces should basically disband.
If better, should the U.S.
If better, should the U.S. government participate in this intervention?
I like options with the NULL case as listed.......
THINK?
this is not ninjas.....it is our govenrment.
I would hope that the CIVIL SERVANTS making all the six figure salaries out there would have done SOME THINKING by now. THAT IS WHAT I PAY THEM TO DO. I AM GOING TO KEEP ON PAYING FOR THE CIVIL SERVANT WAY PAST THEIR RETIRIMENT DATE. SINCE THAT CIVIL SERVANT LIVES A HELL OF A LOT BETTER THAN I DO, IT IS A SMALL THING TO ASK THEM TO BE PROACTIVE. The cargo weakness has been known for a long time and nobody plugged that hole, just spent billions on passenger level screens(BTW....the passenger screens that we have paid so dearly for would not have stopped 9/11! How long did Homeland security THINK about that?). Contract cargo on passenger air planes has been an issue for a long long time. While back , way before 9/11 a passenger jet went down in south Florida. I mean really down, it went in nose first and there was very little of it found. One theory was the fire was so intense inside the airplane that the pilot drove into the ground on purpose. The investigation led to the cargo what the plane was carrying, airplane oxygen generators. The chemical reaction that generates the oxygen is exothermic, it is a one time use piece of equipment. No it was not part of the plane's safety stores, it was cargo being carried by the airline. The generators were not suppose to be on board.
How long did Homeland Security THINK about saying. "the system worked" after the panty bomber?????
How much did Mines and Minerals THINK about issuing drilling permits in the Gulf of Mexico??????
How much did the SEC think about Bernie Madoff?????????
How much did the FDIC think about insuring banks that leveraged themselves so badly?????????
How much did Fannie and Freddie think about writing so many bad loans?????????
How much did the Federal Government think about Robo-signing and the silly work done on forclosures?????
Gets old after a while doesn't it. They are ONLY civil servants with a salary better than yours and retirement plan that people would kill for.
Has anyone gone to the TelCo's and wireless manufacturers and asked for a solution to their products being used to kill US soldiers? How long has that gone on? Make the TelCo's liable for their products and they will find a solution really darn quick! Army's solution, millions of dollars of EW jamming equipment. My solution, "click" turn the cell system off....no cost the US taxpayer.
I would hope that the people on the ground are "GOING TO FIND" not "thinking" about finding those individuals involved in the recent Yemen problem.
Seems like our security is knee jerk. Not a well thought out plan. Seems like the time for THINKING was a long time ago. Each layer of security is put in place in a patchwork arrangement as each plot unfolds. No, I am not talking about brainstorming and doing everything that comes to mind. I am talking about looking at the mode of operation of the enemy (yes call them the enemy and get them the heck out of the civil court room and treat them like what they are. There is nothing civil about AQ. ) and putting in a security plan to address the issue. Be one step ahead. I do not consider having a person in the Middle East doing our THINKING for us is staying one step ahead.
That is has dateline for any where in the world.
What we get instead are a bunch of government mucky mucky that go on TV with wide eyes saying now is the time for "THINKING". They do not have a clue.
Just for grins.........
Throw this on the table....
Has anyone considered that AQ is just living their religion?
Eye for and eye. Personally, I think that the Yemen problem is just their idea of a surge.
"Buy the American label" and cargo would not be that much of a problem any more. They can buy their own stuff that they make. People would have jobs and cash in their pockets. Less bitching and stone throwing. Multi-culturalism is done.
The American model in
The American model in Bahgdad.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/01/AR201011...
BAGHDAD -- Iraqi lawmakers have collected their $90,000 stipend, they're raking in $22,500 a month in salaries and allowances, and they're spending free nights in Baghdad's finest hotel - and they've only worked about 20 minutes this year, without passing a single law.
As the parliament prepares to hold what will be only its second session since the inconclusive election in March, lawmakers' lavish salaries and privileges are deepening resentment among Iraqis struggling to make ends meet and frustrated with the political deadlock.
In contrast, a mid-level government employee makes around $600 a month.
Keydet: While I get your
Keydet: While I get your point, I dont see how that argument that the Iraqis are too busy with internal sec. works out. As far as I remember, Yemen served as more or less an R&R facility for the AQ elements of the Iraqi resistance. Surely they should be able to liason a few officers of the real police variety (as opposed to the usual driller killers) out of the whole Iraqi security apparatus?
Fnord: I understand what
Fnord: I understand what you're saying and it makes sense. I would be surprised if Iraq did not have some aparatus keeping an eye on the AQAP and the situation in Yemen. I was trying to convey that I doubt they have the resources to make any substantial commitment to helping track and eliminate these threats.
There is also a new report
There is also a new report on the US in both Yemen AND Somali from Chatham House.
@Fnord, "liason a few
@Fnord,
"liason a few officers of the real police variety..."
Who would that be? The goons who worked for Saddam, or the just as bad or worse goons who joined up after he was gone? You do realize under Saddam anything more than routine minor stuff, including detective work was turned over to the Mukhabarat. After the decent people got into the Iraqi Army, or fled. Or they're dead. Iraq is not a place for real police. Not unless it's really changed.
You might appreciate this tidbit about Norway...speaking of real police work...
http://www.islamist-watch.org/blog/2010/11/informal-honor-police-use-tax...
To hunt down girls who try to flee.
I saw that the UK and
I saw that the UK and Germany banned cargo from Yemen.....I like that.
I saw that Germany banned passenger flights from Yemen.....I like that.
Then I saw this..... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8104444/Ink-b...
He claimed that “early intervention” in the state, increasing the current £50million a year given by Britain for development projects, will prove far cheaper than waiting for it to descend into anarchy and then trying to clean up the mess.
Mr Duncan warned that if Yemen is allowed to collapse: “It could lead to a litany of chaos, with no water, no energy, no food, civil strife, al-Qaeda flourishing, increasing radicalisation and a regional and international threat both to world energy supplies and to many nations’ securities.”
Yeah, yeah I know Yemen is going to run out of oil revenue and go kaput. SO WHAT. {audience gasps and says, "you meanee"}
Get a grip people.
If you pay for everything that your child wants what is going to happen? You might get lucky and your kid will get a government job, university job, or you'll have a child that moves back in with you after college. USA has people in Mississippi that are in the heart of share croping, food is grown all around them. These people are on welfare and are eating at Burger King and are malnurished and unhealthy. The people on welfare blame their condition on their markets closing and the cost of the market food, yet they can afford fast food. Their grandparents had gardens and grew their food, what the heck happened? Church groups are bringing back the ways of their grandparents and starting to learn were the hoe and Burpee catalog is at.
Let Yemen grow up by itself. Those people have been there a lot longer than most and they have been surviving all that time with out anyone's help.
AQ is mirroring our response (eye for an eye) and just want to be left alone. If we leave AQ alone, it would mean thinking about how we have made Israel dependent on USA's support. The USA should stop paying for their friends and start earning them.
Maybe it is time really tighten up the immigration policy. USA has skimmed the best and brightest in their drive for diversify at University and the USA took the cap off of H1B to help them. In Iraq, any one that could afford to leave left. The people that are immigrating are the people that can counter the AQ argument. Maybe it is time to let the best and brightest stay at home and solve their country's problems rather than taking the easy way out. Foreign academics in US schools, before they get a H1B or immigrate ask them to do some social work at home for seven years.
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