Abu Muqawama: Post
Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS. Abu Muqawama retains the right to delete comments that include words that incite violence; are predatory, hateful, or intended to intimidate or harass; or degrade people on the basis of gender, race, class, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, or disability. In summary, don't be a jerk.
Egypt: A Humble Request
Hey, I'm not trying to get all Edward Said on the readership here, but I do have one small request: can we all agree to stop using European historical analogies to describe what is taking place in Egypt? It's not Europe in 1848 or Eastern Europe in 1989 or France in 1789: it's Egypt in 2011.
What is taking place in Egypt today is the result of sui generis social, political, cultural and even geographic phenomena. When we use "western" frames of reference to make sense of what is taking place, by contrast, we a) sound really freaking narcissistic and b) fail to take those local phenomena seriously and thus miss a lot of what is going on.
Egypt has been doing this civilization thing, it occurs to me, for quite some time. Maybe even longer than Western Europe (by, oh, a few thousand years or so). So let's take Egypt and the Egyptians seriously -- on their own terms.
And at the same time, can we
And at the same time, can we stop with the Muslim Brotherhood = Khomeini
So far the only good quality
So far the only good quality coverage I've seen has been on Al Jazeera and even there the talking heads love their comparisons. The other thing thats annoying me is how CNN/BBC/et al have seemingly no conception that anything can happen in the region without Al Qaeda being involved in some fashion.
It is a cultural crime to
It is a cultural crime to look at events through the lens of history? How can we determine that the situation is so unique in Egypt that you felt the need to resort to Latin, if we don't compare it to past and current events?
While I'm very sympathetic to
While I'm very sympathetic to your argument as far as the dangers of using a purely Western historical lens through which to understand what's going on in Egypt, your conclusion -- that it's Egypt 2011 and therefore that we should only ever think of it that way -- reminds of me Borges's "On Exactitude in Science," in which cartographers try to eliminate the inherent falsehoods involved in making scale-model maps and resort to maps of their empire that are exactly the same size as their empire. In the end they realize the maps are useless, for obvious reasons -- their usefulness actually resides in their difference from reality. Referring to other historical events that we feel we already understand is a necessary part of how we understand what is unfolding at the present moment, so the question is really more a matter of calling attention to the ways certain analogies affect our perceptions of what's going on. I think you're right that over-reliance on Western metaphors serves Western narcissism perhaps more than it allows for an understanding of what is really happening, but it would be better to try to find different metaphors or to work to modify the way the default metaphors work. Otherwise, arguing that we shouldn't use any analogies to anything can become dangerously close to arguing that we are not allowed to understand what's happening right now.
An Egyptian on morning
An Egyptian on morning edition just compared Egypt to France in May of '68. He must have missed your post.
Umm, in that spirit, any
Umm, in that spirit, any links to a good and sober analysis of the political structures of Egypt?
Thank you for this
Thank you for this intelligent, sane post. From your lips to the ears to the US neo-cons and their Iran 1979 comparisons.
All historical analogies are
All historical analogies are revealing up to a point and misleading thereafter, and that line should be specified. But comparisons themselves are not inherently misleading, and are often illuminating.
For example, I've written that Egypt is in a "1989 moment" - and that the question is whether we are in June or November. That's not Eurocentric (June is a reference to Tienanmen, obviously), and it is meant to illuminate a specific point which seems to me entirely relevant to an analysis of the situation in Egypt today, which is that the level of street protest seems to me to have reach a crucial political point where either a government-initiated bloodbath, or a government collapse (or possible both) seems unavoidable at this point. If that analysis is correct, then it clarifies policy and advocacy choices for all concerned.
The problem is not a Western
The problem is not a Western frame of reference. After all, students of revolutions have developed some interesting insights into revolutions around the World by comparing them to earlier revolutions for which there is a fair amount of detail (France, Russia, China, etc.).
The problem is the use of an analysis of a past revolution, to explain the future development of a rebellion that has not developed into a revolution as yet. It turns out that no revolution springs full-blown from the head of Zeus, or from those involved in the early days (American mythology of founding fathers not withstanding). Entrenched groups resist, movements radicalize, and the end result is much different than what people foresaw going in.
So, yes, that said, it IS important to remind commentators that (1) understanding 20th-century Egyptian history is more important than understanding 19th-century European history in understanding the current situation in Egypt; and (2) to compare in revolutions is to deploy a metaphor (and as John Gaddis, Landscape of History suggests, that is what scientists, from geologists to astrophysicists, do).
I don't think that the
I don't think that the problem is specifically "western" analogies, but rather analogies that go back too far in time. Maybe I am naive, or not seeing things clearly (ask me again in 20 years time and I am sure I'll do a better job), b ut it seems to me as if the better analogies are the more recent ones--both western and not. The various "orange" revolutions, maybe even Poland, obviously Tunisia, etc. France in '68 seems better than France in 1789.
The PC police have arrived.
The PC police have arrived. is your point the Egyptians are so alien that they cannot be compared to other freedom movements through history?? Gee you're cooler than everybody today.
Everything is ultimately sui
Everything is ultimately sui generis. But that doesn't mean we are unable to glean valuable insights from analogies. And indeed, I would contend, we are incapable of *not* using analogies - it is, simply, how we think. Would you contend, "Let's not use European analogies, but non-European ones [e.g., the fall of non-Western dictators] are fair game?"
ADTS
Dear Abu Texas, The Egyptian
Dear Abu Texas,
The Egyptian people are saying "Take your 1.5 Billion and shove it."
Or do you want more images of "made in USA" tear gas canisters?
u lie like a rug
I'll add on to what I just
I'll add on to what I just wrote: is there anything wrong with looking at the parallels between this and Marcos in 1986 or, say, Suharto in 1998? Neither is European, and neither is identical to Egypt, but the military's inability or unwillingness to move against its own people in both cases might be of interest in this case.
ADTS
A Humble request deserves a
A Humble request deserves a humble reply........
The conservative-center block respects your request.
PS.....
.................I saw your twitter. Did the people on the ground think the F16's were the US or Egypt?
.................Branding is confusing. America has a responsibility. Maybe the ME would lke us better if we managed the brand better.
...............power out.....{click}
It's also a vast
It's also a vast oversimplification of the 1989 experiences of 7 or 8 different countries that took very different approaches to independence and the use of violence, and had varying degrees of viable leadership ready to step into the void (a negotiated settlement between strong trade unions that had been organizing for years, with the backing of the Catholic church in Poland; a viable and popular intellectual class in Czechoslovakia committed to non-violence and a brief interwar experience with democratic governance; a soft economic and political landing provided by a supportive neighbor (east Germany) and an angry mob dispensing vigilante justice (Romania). Also, a much friendlier neighborhood in general, with surrounded by liberal democracies that aided and encouraged a peaceful transition and offered incentives for moving in a favorable direction.
Abu Muqwama, All you have
Abu Muqwama,
All you have read and learned from Northern Ireland, Algeria, Iraq, Vietnam etc. etc. is utterly irrelevant to Afghanistan. After all, as you have said before, all insurgencies are sui generis. So why are you more informed on how to craft a counterinsurgency strategy than anyone else?
This post is you trying to pump your chest about being more "knowledgeable" than others about the topic.
After all, I am sure people in 1979 were saying "The Persians are an ancient civilization, who are WE to know what is best for them".
Can you say with a straight face that the current Iranian regime is a 1,000 more years advanced than the West? Or that Egypt has a more sophisticated political culture than the West? Does the Muslim Brotherhood offer anything new? El Baradei was a hyper effective anti-nuclear proliferation guy?
I agree that one should stand
I agree that one should stand guard against the lazy use of historical analogies (and approach topics like this with requisite humility), but anyone who suggests that no use should be made of the precedents of 1789, 1848, 1870, 1917, 1960, 1989, etc., is engaging in a different sort of know-nothingism.
What do you guys have to say
What do you guys have to say to Persians who were around in 78/79 saying this is very similar?
Yes, it is not the same as
Yes, it is not the same as those events, but there are underlying similarities that may allow us to betterunderstand what may happen
To compare the events in
To compare the events in Egypt to any particular revolution, there or elsewhere, seems reductive. But I would suggest, Ex, that the proper use of historical analogies is not to validate our preconceptions by pointing to a parallel, but rather, to unsettle them. And that's easier to accomplish if one cites several disparate precedents.
One might, for example, reasonably observe that even popular uprisings launched against truly despotic tyrants, and led by relatively progressive, religiously moderate or secular nationalists have sometimes succeeded only in displacing the old tyranny, before being shouldered aside by better-organized, more ruthless contenders for power. Egypt is neither Russia in 1917 nor Iran in 1978 - but that cautionary note surely applies.
But those inclined to view events in Cairo with portentous gloom ought to be reminded of cases in which popular uprisings have led to lasting change, and empowered the coalitions that initiated them.
And then there's France in 1789. It began with promise, devolved into a horrid bloodbath, birthed an expansionist empire, but a century on, finally gave way to something resembling a stable republic. Of all these models, it's the one I've been thinking about most in recent days. It reminds me both that it's awfully hard to move from a centralized authoritarian state to a democratic republic; and that countries and cultures do sometimes change over the longue duree.
Historical analogies best serve to instill humility and caution. They remind us that few at the time of momentous events correctly see their consequences - and that even the measure of those consequences will depend upon the point at which it is taken. France in 1789 was an inspiration; by 1793, it devolved into the Reign of Terror; the first Empire betrayed the revolution's ideals but conquered much of Europe; the Second Empire repeated that as farce; and then the various republics ensued, bringing us to the present pillar of European union. Was the revolution a success or a failure? And could any of this have been foretold at its inception?
It's a question I'd love to see posed to the talking heads on the news shows. Because events as they actually unfold are both unpredictable in advance, and often unintelligible even in retrospect.
Something that should be
Something that should be looked at from a National Security standpoint in Egypt....is how and why the Egyptian Government pulled the plug on their Internet grid for it's citizens.
For those who had security services provided for personal businesses or their private homes, that were connected to the internet, this will bring HUGE lawsuits against the government or individual person's by those who had property damage of thefts occur. In fact, I think the cutting of the internet exacerbated the security problems within the country and lead to more chaos. What idiots!
Don't be surprised to see a large group of wealthy, middle class and lower income business owners and property owners to sue the living shit out of the person(s) who made the decision to cut internet access to the entire country.
In addition to this, I wouldn't be surprised to see those responsible for cutting the internet physically removed from the country. AM if there is one thing you do this week, find out who turned off the internet in Egypt. Inquiring minds what to know...
I think it's established the
I think it's established the regime turned off the internet. Wallah people seem to think it's sacrosanct* and indestructible. No, it requires power, telecommunications channels (fiber, wire, wireless, satellite), routers, switches, servers. Of course it can be turned off. Your own government can remotely shut down or take control off all Radio and TV remotely (Clinton FCC). The internet would be a little harder - but if you shut down the telecom networks and ISPs there you are. For instance. Of course it can be disabled or destroyed.
[*which is funny since it's most ardent adherents often regard nothing else as sacred]
Hey I thought we were pals?
Hey I thought we were pals? And peers. That's it, I never drop your name on my blog again.
And boy did visitor 156 pwn U
Be nice if you employed the
Be nice if you employed the same standards to your often dogmatic/technocratic COIN theories.
There are two obvious Middle
There are two obvious Middle Eastern analogies to the current situation. The first is the Suez Crisis (which Egyptians themselves tend to call the "Tripartite Aggression")
However, there are huge differences. The insertion of British and French troops into Egypt during the Suez Crisis was the last gasp of European colonialism in the region. Robert Fisk's Great War of Civilization has a nice excerpt on that:
One Major Murad, 1956: "I asked Nasser: 'Is there an agreement with the Russians for military aid?' He said there was not. I asked: 'Not even a gentleman's agreement?' He said: 'No.' I was furious. I thought that his man must be mad in challenging all three forces at once. I said, 'Sir, we shall do our best but it will be a miracle if we can stand up against the British, the French, and Israel.' He just replied, 'Rabina ma'ana' - May God be with us. Then he left.'
Then Eisenhower stepped in and changed the game:
"President Eisenhower had been furious when he learned that Israel's invasion had been set up by the Allies - mainly by the French. . . [He] reserved America's right to condemn the whole invasion. Eisenhower's famous remark to Foster Dulles - that his job was to go to London and tell Eden: "Whoa, boy" - showed just how close he was to cutting off all support for Britain.
However, soon after the U.S. came to view Nasser as unacceptably close to the Soviets and so launched a covert CIA support program for the Islamic radicals in the Muslim Brotherhood. Indeed, support for Islamic radicals as a bulwark against the Godless Soviets was a major theme of U.S. Middle East policy right up till the fall of the Berlin Wall... with all the unanticipated consequences that entailed (Al Qaeda, Cole, 9/11, etc.) Blowback galore - oops.
For the post-Nasser period, a good source is Egypt After Nasser: Sadat, Peace and the Mirage of Prosperity by Thomas W. Lippman. Here's the rub:
"Hard-currency foreign debt, which was virtually nil at the time of the 1952 revolution, had reached $44.1 billion by 1987. . . hard currency repayment obligations equaled nearly half the Gross Domestic Product."
Essentially, Sadat and Mubarak mortgaged the family estate to the hilt to support their greedy luxurious lifestyles, impoverishing the people of Egypt in the process and betraying all of Nasser's promises (though of course Nasser did rule with an iron fist, he didn't fall into the debt trap). This was encouraged by various U.S. interests and by the Saudis - those shady deals are ongoing, for example:
2011 01-11 Egypt's Minister of Petroleum Sameh Fahmi received in Cairo Chief of Halliburton Oil Company David Lesar, currently on a working tour of the region.
Fahmi, in statements after the meeting, said they discussed future cooperation in the oil field. Fahmi added he discussed with Lesar the possibility of cooperation with the international company in projects abroad for opening new markets for Egypt's oil companies abroad especially as Egypt’s oil companies carried out projects in major countries inside and outside OPEC.
This is why the U.S. State Department was and is so reluctant to call for Mubarak to step down - short-sighted as ever. Investors on the other hand are dumping Middle Eastern stocks across the board as the cost of insuring Egyptian and Saudi debt skyrockets.
Now, this brings us to the other Middle Eastern analogy that should weigh heavily on the mind of any U.S. President (esp. a Democratic President) - yes, you guessed it, the Iranian revolution.
By 1977, less than two years before the Islamic Revolution, the Shah was predicting that within ten years Iran would be as developed as western Europe, and shortly thereafter one of the five most powerful countries in the world. President Jimmy Carter's U.S. administration, burdened with a liberal desire to spread human rights across the globe but still anxious to maintain the Shah's power, continued the American policy of supporting the reforms that were causing so much unrest among Iranians." - Fisk, The Great War for Civilization
What does that mean? Simple - if Carter had supported moderate pro-democracy elements in Iran rather than sticking with the Shah, he could likely have avoided the Iranian revolution and the subsequent destruction of his presidency (an event which filled the neocon/Team B elements with glee, incidentally - and which also lead to the Iran-Contra deals, the Iran-Iraq War, etc.).
If Obama's team has any brains at all, they will urge Mubarak to abdicate and support immediate free elections in Egypt - that will surely close the door on any possibility of an Iranian-style revolution, and perhaps even win us a friendly, moderate, democratic regime in Egypt.
One way or the other, Mubarak is going down. His son Gamal has already fled to his London estates, according to Al Jazeera. Try not to screw this up, what?
Agree completely. My personal
Agree completely. My personal favorite was the piece in a Foreign Affairs mag last year comparing Afghanistan to 17th century France. It's amazing how these commentators understand the country so little that they have to create these parallels so they can look at events through their own lens... Of course they are recognised as experts on TV and propogate these parallels at the peril of misleading even more uninformed viewers.
You argue, gunboat diplomat,
You argue, gunboat diplomat, that past American mistakes have led to bad outcomes in the region. And indeed, they have. But that does not lead to your next point, which is that alternative American policies would surely have led to better outcomes. Not only is that unknowable, but in many specific cases, it is improbable.
You want immediate elections? Very well. But be aware that an election held in a week or a month would likely be the last in Egypt for quite some time - and amid the present instability, it would be neither free nor fair.
One reason why American policy in the region has so often produced bad outcomes is that very often, we have been selecting from an array of bad outcomes.
However so enlightened, after
However so enlightened, after suggesting a baseball video to the protesters...
The problem with this argument is that there is no more 'politics on its own terms', neither American, European, or Egyptian. The protesters hold up their signs in English - they know who their audience is.
So I'd rather suggest to move away from this custodial attitude - you are actually closer to Said than you think here - to an understanding of politics (including uprisings) in a globalised world.
Said, by the way, died in 2003. He won't be joining your readership after all...
Egyptians have thousands of
Egyptians have thousands of years of civilization, true. But that doesn't mean they have a collective intelligence about how to run a nation, today, right? You can't be serious. We're supposed to respect Egypt's revolts for the fact that Egypt has been civilized for a long time? Egyptians have an alien system of government, now, a republic, a European system of government. There are also few connections with modern Egypt, Egypt since 638 AD and now. Did you know that Arabs changed Egypt in 638? Did you know that Alexander and his successors, the Ptolemies changed Egypt before that? Maybe Egyptians are the best civilized people in the world, because they've been at it so long, but you haven't convinced me of that. Why don't you explain to us why Egypt being a civilized place gives them an edge over all other places.
I'm not a fan of historical
I'm not a fan of historical analogies generally, more because I think they get overused by people reaching for something to say than because I think they are never instructive. The problem here is that most of the people talking on the air about the political situation in Egypt became acquainted with the subject during the last week. This makes it very hard to know whether, or which, analogies to other countries' history are applicable.
But anyone can beat up on the television talkers, who after all have a job to do. They have to fill up air time, and you don't do that by shrugging your shoulders and saying something like "boy, how about those Egyptians!" It might help us understand what is going on if we remember that to Egyptians themselves (the ones under 70 or so, anyway), what is happening now is something new to their experience. Egypt has had three leaders since I was born; nearly half the population has no memory of any president other than Mubarak. What we would consider very small expressions of political dissent or resistance were very effectively quashed by Mubarak's government for decades, and suddenly the whole country seems to be in the streets. So if we're looking for analogies, maybe we ought to be thinking in terms of situations where reality for a whole people changed in a moment, and for some time afterward none of them were really sure quite what they were trying to do. Such situations can produce disasters; they have in the past. But we shouldn't assume that this one has to.
The one possible predictor of
The one possible predictor of the future is the past. Doesn't mean it will work.
There are some analogies to 1989, however yes it's a different bunch.
Haaretz has interesting take,
Haaretz has interesting take, past, present and future for what this means.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/without-egypt-israel-will-...
Banned for 21 years from
Banned for 21 years from Tunisia by ousted president, Imam Rachid Ghannouchi returns in triumph to hero's welcome. Shades of 1979 and the Ayatollah Khomeini return to Iran.
Ok. I'll break out the mirror. 1978/79. You just got fooled again (cue The Who please).
If this Dude- Imam Rachid
If this Dude- Imam Rachid Ghannouchi were a extremist, why was he living in the UK? You would think they would have removed him? If this Dude is a extremist, Scotland Yard and MI-5 must be happy he is off their soil, along with his followers. Moderate or extremist it doesn't sound good for the locals, but I do smell something fishy.
Hindsight is 20-20 vision,
Hindsight is 20-20 vision, certainly - but why didn't the U.S. "intelligence" elements see the Iranian revolution coming? Clearly, we wouldn't have started building nuclear power plants for the Shah in the 1970s if we thought that they'd end up in the hands of a violent anti-American revolution. Who today would argue that supporting SAVAK was a good idea? However - Mossad and the CIA were instrumental in the creation and training of SAVAK, so perhaps they were blinded by their own hands.
The 5,000-member Iranian secret police force SAVAK (a contraction of the Farsi words for security and information organization) has long been Iran's most hated and feared institution. With virtually unlimited powers to arrest and interrogate, SAVAK has tortured and murdered thousands of the Shah's opponents. - Time Feb 19 1979
Speaking of, Carter just weighed in:
WASHINGTON – Former President Jimmy Carter on Sunday called the unrest in Egypt an "earth-shaking event" and guessed the Arab nation's thirty-year leader Hosni Mubarak will be forced to step down.
"This is the most profound situation in the Middle East since I left office," Carter told a 300-student Sunday school class at Maranatha Baptist Church in his hometown of Plains, Georgia, according to the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer.
Carter described Mubarak as a president who has "become more politically corrupt" and "perpetuated himself in office" over thirty years. He said his "guess is Mubarak will have to leave."
At least we can try to avoid making the same mistakes we made 30+ years ago, though.
Yay Egyptian Army, seems they
Yay Egyptian Army, seems they have stated that the claims of the populace are legitimiate and will not use force in this conflict. Damn, this will change a lot of things. (I wonder what the IDF (wich is currently without a CoS btw, whats up with that?) is doing of force-realignment planning right now. Hoho.)
Hey, Mo, at least an invasion of Lebanon looks undoable in the near future ;-)
Oh, and with regards to your
Oh, and with regards to your tweet about Eliot Abrams: Come on, you know he would never sit in the same room as Mark Lynch. He believes liberalism is a contagious disease, and would if he showed up be rooting for the Israeli candidate, Omar Suleiman. The man singlehandedly drove the budding Hamas reformation into a political entity down the chute.
http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/57439/meet-omar-suleiman/?utm_source=rss...
http://conflictsforum.org/2007/elliot-abrams-uncivil-war/
Yes Fnord, you can bet they
Yes Fnord, you can bet they are. Gaza will suffer the worst of this at first you know. They'll be caught between a desperate Israel and an Egypt descending into a Bloodbath. Of course the good news for the Left is the Coptic Christians are TOAST. They were there first, you know.
"Coalition" Government to form in Egypt - Mohammed ElBaradei and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Yes rather like Khomeini and Abulhassan Banisadr (The Kerensky of Iran).
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/egypt-s-muslim-brotherhood-eye...
I really hope someday all
I really hope someday all Leftists, and all Euro types get to live under the types of government they have helped force onto Asians, Africans, Latin Americans, and of course Middle Eastern types.
We really, really shouldn't have saved you from the Nazi's. Or Stalin.
Off topic... but, what the
Off topic... but, what the hell?
January 31, 2011
Letter from Kabul: The Great Afghan Bank Heist
Posted by Dexter Filkins
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2011/01/filkins-afghanist...
Elf: Egypt descending into a
Elf: Egypt descending into a bloodbath? Whut? Got to check my news if the army strated firing, two secs... Hmm, "Egyptian Army Will Not Use Force on Protestors".
RIght. And Elf, I think it a bit unfair to blame us leftists on El Salvador, Guatemala, Chile, and the rest of the Latin American dictatorships, dontcha? And who was it supported Pol Pots ghost-seat at the UN for oh so many years? I actually suspect the Muslim Brotherhood of not wanting to fuck too much with the army, I would love to hear the private phone talks between Petraeus and Egyptian chief-of-staff about right now...
But hey, I guedd GWB was a leftie, democracy to the Middle East and all that?
Guedd == guess..
Guedd == guess..
Can we all agree that what is
Can we all agree that what is happening in Egypt, and brewing in Jordan, Yemen and other Middle Eastern states, has dire implications for Israel?
Hester, Repeat after me: We
Hester, Repeat after me: We do not care how corrupt our allies are. We do not care how corrupt our allies are.
See, pissing your pants in a snowstorm is an honourable way to keep warm. Arabs (muslims, never mind their actual culture) are weak animals who only understand force. They are not real people. They do not feel individual emotions. They do not feel anger at tyrants and evil men who torture them at will. You have to understand this if you ever want a career. They are subhumans, morlocks, statistics. Uppity sandni¤¤ers. A firm boot in the face, and let them get on with it.
And all that FM 3-24 shit? Well, you got to keep nerds like Exum and the lads happy back home.
You know judging from the
You know judging from the news coming out of Egypt and Washington.....
1) People are popping up in Egypt to be Wanabee Leaders.
2) Mubarak is appointing leaders.
3) Washington is calling for leadership, elections, and calm.
4) The Egyptian military has in part backed the demonstrators.
5) The Islamic Bro-Hood woke up one day and found a riot going on.
6) Iran does not seem to be involved.
7) AQ of anywhere does not seem involved, but some of the AQ leadership is from Egypt.
8) What ever leader does happen, the Egypt bond ratings are taking a dive. They are going to have to have some credibility to pay for the new operation.
Please correct me if I am wrong.......
Really, the question that I want to know, is there any leadership stepping forward from the protestors? If yes, do they have any credibility. Did a bunch of people just decided it was time to riot? That does not make any since, there has to be a sparkplug somewhere.....who?
Here is a wild @ss idea........Are there any muslim organizations that can come forward and broker a deal.....any organization that the protestors would trust?
.................taking Elf's que.....Pink Floyd..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xACgZnt1wBo
Hillary getting up on a soap box is just not making a splash..............sorry...the washington warranty wore off ....the conservative-center lives on.
If getting someone to step up does not work....could fly in some headliners like Lady Gaga and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFsCnsOKkl8 .
At least it would draw a friendly crowd.......Radical Imams not allowed.
Worked here...... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYKY2lpxMg8 ......by the end no one knew the difference between LSD or LBJ !
Visitor last: Dont forget the
Visitor last: Dont forget the impact of Wikileaks and Palileaks in Egypt society. They finally found out what their leaders were up to. I dont think they will be very positive to open bribes and US assistance. If Iwas Obama, I would be on the phone with Hu in China, trying to find a third way.
Im guessing that there is a big freaking scramble to find someone in Egyptian leadership able to negotiate w the Muslim Brotherhood, a lot of wich have experienced electricity to their testicles by the current regime. Its another bonus re-payment when your corrupt puppet finally breaks: The guys who were in power beneath him are also seen as guilty.
Semper Fi 06: Yup, I think we can all agree on that. At the very least, they will not be able to do agression for the next year as the dust settles. And that derails quite a lot of Israels plans, methinks.
Good points.... The
Good points....
The P-leaks.....sort of hurts the trust. Have to find someone that did not get leaked on.
Here's a good quote from
Here's a good quote from Egyptian human rights activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim, Oct 2007:
"My country is a great country, old civilization, the cradle of one of the greatest set of attainments in mankind. But despite its greatness as a country, as a society, as a culture, it has a terrible political regime, and we are trying to change the regime or to make it more democratic. And the regime is resisting and, as I said, eliminating anyone who is too loud-voiced or who is credible enough to be listened to. And it is a struggle, like struggle in other third world countries between the forces of democracy and the forces of autocracy and the forces of theocracy. We have a three-way struggle in our country. We, as democrats, are fighting both the autocrats and the theocrats. And in that fight, it is - we sometimes feel lonely, as if we are crying in the wilderness, because unfortunately, countries like the United States and some other Western powers have been supporting the autocrats for the sake of stability."
Source: Global Security Watch - Egypt
Denis J. Sullivan, Kimberly Jones
Looks like those authors have an active blog, here: Egypt: Revolution at Hand?
...Egyptians of all classes, all socio-economic walks of life, are on the streets as we write; they are protecting their families and their personal property with whatever “weapons” they have — golf clubs, sticks, pistols. The looters? They are largely seen as government “thugs”; indeed, many reports confirm that many are undercover police, the mukhabaraat.
Why are undercover cops always such dirty sleazebags? The authority of the badge without the responsibility, that's why...
Note that certain political and economic interests in the U.S. are also now actively supporting Mubarak - and their tactic is blatantly obvious. They are attempting to portray the struggle as one between autocrats and theocrats, while ignoring the largest faction, the one that supports democracy.
This is wildly dishonest - but it's what Newscorp, 15-20% owned by Saudi royalty, is doing on its FOX channel, and spin in this direction is coming from a few other places in the cable news circuit:
"Speaking to CBS News on condition of anonymity, the diplomat warned of "militants in Egypt who will take a harder line towards the US and Israel. . ."
Enough of that B.S., alright?
Of course one can say every
Of course one can say every revolution is different. But one can still find meaningful parallels between them. For example, comparing Egypt with the 1848 movement:
1. Both involve a spontaneous popular which moves across national borders, challenging long-standing autocratic systems in multiple nations.
2. Driven by largely secular and educated parts of the population with pro-democratic sentiments.
3. And enabled and spread by new technologies: 1848 it was the rail and telegraph. Now it's the internet.
I don't think these are merely random coincidences.
Add your comment