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Egypt: People Who Might Actually Know What The %$#@ They're Talking About (Updated)
I was home in Tennessee for a brief 24 hours and woke up yesterday morning to MSNBC's "Morning Joe," which Mama Muqawama likes to watch before work. Nothing against the people on that particular show, because it's probably just representative of U.S. cable news in general*, but I was absolutely stunned by the willingness of the show's guests to opine about Egypt without having any actual experience in or expertise on Egypt or the broader Middle East. Is it really that tough to say, "Hey, that's a great question, Joe, but I am not really the best guy to give the viewers at home a good answer?"
Instead, guest after guest -- most of whom are specialists in or pundits on U.S. domestic politics -- made these broad, ridiculously sweeping statements about the meaning and direction of the protests.
I traveled to Egypt twice in 2005 and lived there between January and August of 2006 while studying Arabic after having completed my master's degree in Middle Eastern Studies at the American University of Beirut. I am by no means an expert on Egypt. But I like to think I know the people who are, so as a service to the readers, I am providing you all a list of no-%$#@ experts on Egypt. This list is, happily, by no means exhaustive: unlike the lack of informed commentary on Afghanistan, the United States has thousands of people who have lived and studied in Egypt as civilian researchers and students and can thus provide some reasonably informed commentary on events there. The following list is filled with some people whose opinions matter and whose analysis might actually be informed by study and experience. This list is in no particular order except for the first two people on the list, who are both good friends as well as two of the world's best experts on Egyptian politics.
Issandr el-Amrani, Arabist.net, @arabist
Elijah Zarwan, Crisis Group
Michael Wahid Hanna, The Century Foundation, @mwhanna1
Marc Lynch, GWU/CNAS/FP.com, @abuaardvark
Steven Cook, CFR, @stevenacook
Samir Shehata, Georgetown University
Josh Stacher, Kent State University, @jstacher
Amil Khan, Abu Muqawama, @Londonstani
Max Rodenbeck, The Economist
If you can, follow the live feed on al-Jazeera Arabic, which has made for the most exciting television I have watched since the Red Sox came back from three games down in the 2004 ALCS. (These events are arguably more geostrategically significant.) If you can't follow that feed, try al-Jazeera English or follow the updates on Robert Mackey's most excellent New York Times blog The Lede.
*An exception to the rule: Ben Wedeman at CNN.
Update: Someone in the comments suggested Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid), and I second that. Again, my list was happily not exhaustive. There are a lot of very smart analysts out there who can thoughtfully opine on Egypt -- in large part thanks to the legions of Arabic-language students who pass through Cairo at some point in their training.
Mark Lynch's latest post
Mark Lynch's latest post "Obama is handling Egypt Pretty Well" is the most silly commentary yet. I don't know if Obama is doing a good job or not bunch Lynch's blog posts seem to be more interested in defending old liberal foreign policy arguments then telling the story in Egypt. It only took two paragraphs for him to mention Bush and his policy as "laughable and offensive".
What AM says about
What AM says about talk-television coverage of Egypt could be said as well about its coverage of nearly any other subject not directly related to American campaign politics. I understand ABC's "This Week" program has an official policy that no more than one of its discussion panelists can be an expert on any subject not having to do with polls, fundraising or some other aspect of an American election campaign. Zakaria's show has been pretty good at rounding up knowledgable guests in response to events, though.
With all that said, it is important in this case that knowledge of Egypt and its politics be leavened with understanding of American interests in the region, the really important subject where the United States is concerned.
I know, right? Who do these
I know, right?
Who do these cable commenters think they are? An anonymous know-it-all blog commenter like me?
:)
I've stopped watching television outside of C-SPAN and interview-heavy shows like Charlie Rose or Greta Van Sustern. I just like to see how a politician handles a question sometimes. It's revealing in more ways than one, that's for sure.
Seriously, how can anyone really know what will happen? It's almost impossible to know.
By the way, even experts will
By the way, even experts will have a problem because of the - wait for it, it's my favorite - knowledge problem.
All the knowledge isn't available to make definitive or even semi-definitive. At best, you get an educated guess.
You won't get thoughtful types on-air I'm betting. You need to make bold statements, draw bold lines, and look all "pundity". You know, lots of lip-gloss a la Fox or kind of CNNish DC-nerd-chic a la no one I will mention.
Not you, not you.
Jesus, are you seriously a
Jesus, are you seriously a Red Sox fan? There is no fucking way a guy from Eastern TN can possibly be that big of a Red Sox fan. Your love of craft beer, bull shit sports like Rugby and Soccer, and being a so called "fan" of the Boston Fucking RED SOX fits you squarely into every steroptype of white, yuppy, douches in the world. Let me guess, you probably wear a lot of North Face and Columbia clothes too. God, your website has become terrible over the last 2 years and the more I learn about you the less I like.
Are you a twenty-something
Are you a twenty-something and still find yourself amused by outdated seventies sitcom shows? Would you travel to a neighboring town to buy your groceries in an organic market? Have you just watched Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth and are riled up about the environment, but have no idea where to spark change? Well, grab a pack of some delectably imported Parliament cigarettes, button up a plaid jacket, and head to the nearest dive bar to join the passive aggressive fight against the establishment.
Guide to being a hipster douchebag, Stony Brook Press.
Yeah, I know. The hipster-douchebag has been completely played out. Still amusing.
http://www.sbpress.com/2008/10/guide-to-being-a-hipster-douchebag/
In the news today.. Saudi
In the news today..
Saudi King outraged and wagging his finger at the Egyptian protesters.
approx. 100 dead from violence in Egypt.
$500 to $800 million missing from the Egyptian Treasury.
Many priceless items missing from Cairo's museums.
Egyptian Police use U.S. made tear gas on protesters.... * Will this CNN ticker incite more anger and violence?
Egyptian Intelligence Chief - self-appointed to be the acting Vice President for transition government. Who didn't see this coming? One can only assume, he will give himself a nice job in the next administration. Now that's comical!
Oh and don't forget, Charlie Sheen admitted into drug rehab today. - I'm sure this Jasmine Revolution put him over the edge and on a free-base binge.
Having studied abroad in
Having studied abroad in Egypt, I sympathize with you on this one. Lots of very uninformed commentary out there. I will give CNN credit for bringing on some very credible analysts. I would also add Shadi Hamid from Brookings' Saban Center who has been a frequent contributor on Al Jazeera English. He's input is among the best I've seen out there.
"I traveled to Egypt twice in
"I traveled to Egypt twice in 2005 and lived there between January and August of 2006 while studying Arabic after having completed my master's degree in Middle Eastern Studies at the American University of Beirut. I am by no means an expert on Egypt. "
Who would think you're an expert on this or anything else?
No.one.knows.what.will.happen
No.one.knows.what.will.happen.in.Egypt.
Not the Brotherhood, not the police, not the Army (may God guide your hand correctly. I mean it). And not the April 6 movement. God help you. And not Elf, who is barely an expert on the US. If I am. Not.
Don't know what will happen here, either.
Well - guess no think tank money now.
I loved this post - it is
I loved this post - it is exactly how I feel.
I hope you don't mind but I'd like to suggest A few additions:
Robert Malley (international Crisis Group - was excellent on Al Jazeera yesterday)
Robert Fisk (http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-egypt...)
Jamal Dajani (http://www.linktv.org/mosaic/blog)
The Mosaic 'world news from the middle east' is a nice antidote to cable news - shows little snippits from various news sources from the region: http://www.linktv.org/mosaic
Nice backgrounder: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v32/n10/adam-shatz/mubaraks-last-breath
... and a good little 'what to read' from Foreign Affairs: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/readinglists/what-to-read-on-eygp...
Things to avoid (for your mental health):
All comments by Joe Biden - not just about Egypt - avoiding what he says in general avoids many a 'head-in-hands' moments... (http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/27/biden_on_mubarak_i_would_...)
All posts on Fox 'news' by John Bolton (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/01/28/amb-john-bolton-democracy-comi...)
(btw... Abu Muqawama is always on my list of 'what to read')
Great list. I'd add Jon
Great list. I'd add Jon Alterman of the CSIS Middle East Program.
Muq- I largely agree with
Muq-
I largely agree with your strategy of avoiding the Sunday talking heads and the situation in Egypt. That said, you're forgetting a glaring exception- my secret (even to her) girlfriend, Christiane Amonpour.
I was concerned about her taking over This Week because, a) She was awesome on her CNN show and b) This Week was rapidly eclipsing MTP as my favorite talk show. Turns out, I was mostly right. I just hope her incredible Egypt and foreign affairs coverage doesn't lead to her getting the boot. Check it out online if you missed it.
I don't know why AM's list
I don't know why AM's list features only Americans who are pro-Israel, or anti-islamist, or right of center .. and language training in Cairo does what - makes you able to read the Arabic press - b/c doesn't seem anyone does.
The ONLY decent coverage is coming from Al Jazeera (although they were forced off the air, thank goodness for camera phones)
Mona El Tahawy, Mervat Hatem (Howard U) and Sherifa Zuhur (used to be at the War College) know what they're seeing & what folks are saying.
[Full disclosure: I am a
[Full disclosure: I am a former student, trial attendee, and general shill for the man] For the committed Egypt-watcher, or even the lazy zeitgeist-chaser, I would recommend you look out for Saad Eddin Ibrahim's thoughts on the matter, recent and past. He not only has studied, taught, and understood the historical trajectory that is occuring in Egypt more than most of the ex-pat commentators, but he put his money where his mouth is and began confronting Mukarak when it was unfashionable and sufferent severely by his hand in turn. His scholarship has addressed more about the root causes of much of this discontent than the loudest-available-voices convenient to twentysomething news producers with three minuites to fill and access to Google could ever hope. Get his book, Egypt, Islam, and Democracy if you want to understand the nexus of development, civil society, foreign aid, and Islamism in the Middle East.
I don't think you need
I don't think you need foreign policy expertise to comment sensibly. In fact, you can find any number of examples where expert consensus was wrong (and the absence of consensus proves further that many experts are wrong). Expertise births its own blind spots through overconfidence, vanity, orthodoxy, mistaking past as prologue, missing larger patterns, and trading expertise for promotion and salary.
I don't know crap about Egypt, but if 80,000,000 are about to obtain freedom that's a wonderful thing. The twin foundations of democracy is the ability to vote out the powerful and have the powerful peacefully relinquish power. The U.S. should always and everywhere support the right of people to vote in, and then vote out, whoever they want. The U.S. state department needs that mission more than it needs experts.
Experts have us supporting tyrants.
It fascinates me that anyone
It fascinates me that anyone has strong conclusions about what is happening and where it will lead. I have complete credentials about my direct involvement in the upheaval here in the U.S. during the 1960s. There were as many opinions and goals as there were participants around the common goal . It turned out well, it could have ended ten different ways some good, some terrible. Hitler could have done things slightly different - consolidating his early gains - and we'd be dealing with Nazi control of a large part of Europe today.
This is not top down, it's bottom up and that's hard to parse. When millions react it's hard to find consensus, except in the broadest of strokes.
This is a runaway train. Where it's headed is impossible to predict and those, expert and otherwise, who attempt to handicap these events are mistaken. It's crystal clear that people are fed up and empowered and my empathy is for them. If there's a smooth transition to a better government, great. A new tyrant could also arise and repress the masses, divisive politics could reign, a failed state develop or violent fundamentalists exploit the situation. No one knows. Hold your breath and wait.
I appreciate your
I appreciate your frustration, but no one should be surprised. While I am personslly not too intimate with the intricacies of the Middle East, I lived worked and studied in Asia for nearly 25 years, and can attest, unfortunately, to the accuracy of your assertions of Western media incompetence. For me, it's just "same story, different region." For example,, during the run up to the 1997 return of Hong Kong to China (universally called the "Handover" by Western media and "Return to the Motherland" by the Chinese media and "Return to China" by the various other Asian media) I was there and saw all the Western talking empty heads waxing grandiosely with deep insights and predictions about it all, few ever touching on how it all came about in the first place, or even what the Chinese thought about getting their own land back... I saw backdrops being created by newscasters to create that expected "Hong Kong look, photos ifcevents and places I'd been myself angled to create a different skew to the event I'd witnessed... It goes on. Not just in Hong Kong then but in Japan, Korwa, China... I'm wise to it now, and rarely believe that what I see is a true picture if what us going on, and gave my own sources of independent confirmation throughout that part of the world. But since I lack that capacity for things in the middle east, I'm at a loss to know - " what's REALLY happening?"
But, my question to you is, why do you even think our media would be any better 15 years later in the Middle East?
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