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For Israel, Hizballah is Lebanon, Lebanon is Hizballah (UPDATED)
Anthony Shadid is reporting from Lebanon for the New York Times and observes that Hizballah is now the most powerful force not just in Lebanon but in the Lebanese government:
A prime minister chosen by and its allies won enough support on Monday to form ’s government, unleashing angry protests, realigning politics and culminating the generation-long ascent of the Shiite Muslim movement from shadowy militant group to the country’s pre-eminent political and military force.
To a degree, this is all democracy in action. Hizballah and its allies control the most seats in the Lebanese parliament, so they have the constitutional right to nominate whoever the hell they like to be the prime minister.* In that way, Najib Miqati is as or more legitimate a choice to be the prime minister as/than any of the prime ministers during the 30-year Syrian occupation. And after spending Lebanon's first 50 or so years as its most underrepresented and ignored major sect, the fact that the Shia are now exercising political power in line with their demographic strength is not in and of itself a bad thing.
But that's it for what passes for the good news.
Moving on, I do not think I need to highlight the number of ways this could go wrong, starting with the fact that the prime minister is always a Sunni Muslim, and Miqati is not by any means the consensus choice of that community. Hence the protests in Tripoli and elsewhere.
I want, though, to focus on how this plays into the way another war between Hizballah and Israel might look. Israel, since the conclusion of the Lebanese Civil War, has always held the government of Lebanon responsible for the actions of Hizballah. In the 1993's 'Operation Accountability," for example, Israel said it was bombing southern Lebanon in part to coerce the governments of Syria and Lebanon to rein in Hizballah. (Why the Israelis thought Hafez al-Asad cared about people dying in southern Lebanon, Dear Reader, is as much a mystery to me as it is to you.) In 1996's "Operation Grapes of Wrath," meanwhile, Israel actually gave us a foretaste of the 2006 war by targeting Beirut and Lebanese infrastructure (such as power stations), again in an effort to get the government of Lebanon to crack down on Hizballah.
Obviously, this whole "getting the government of Lebanon to crack down on Hizballah" strategy was a bit crazy and did not work since Hizballah was so strong and the government of Lebanon so weak. But it was politically more viable than attacking the people that actually might have stood a chance at cracking down on Hizballah -- namely, Syria and Iran.
But Israel's habit of hitting Beirut gets a little less crazy each year. In 1993 and 1996, it made no sense to target the government of Lebanon. By 2006, though, Hizballah was in the government of Lebanon -- or was at least holding seats in parliament. And now, Hizballah has formed its first government in Lebanon, which -- and Paul Salem is right here -- probably makes the organization a little nervous. There are huge risks associated with this. In another war, for example, Israel will be able to claim -- for the first time, really -- that Hizballah is Lebanon, and Lebanon is Hizballah. Since Hizballah controls the government, any attack on the institutions of the state -- to include the US-equipped Lebanese Armed Forces -- will be legitimate. And even people like me, who genuinely love Lebanon and its people and do not like to see either bombed, will not have much of an argument for why Israel should not. (Other than my constant refrain that another war would not serve the interests of the people of either Lebanon or Israel and would only bring more unneeded suffering on each.)
The same applies to those aforementioned Lebanese Armed Forces. The one constant in U.S. governmental policy toward Lebanon has been -- and this dates back to the Civil War years -- our train-and-equip mission for the Lebanese Armed Forces. We have provided $720 million in aid to Lebanon's security services since 2006 alone. But if a member of the U.S. Congress asks me why we should continue to give money to the security forces of Lebanon when the institutions of the state are now controlled by a coaltion led by Hizballah ... well, I honestly have no good answer. I mean, U.S. aid to Lebanon and strengthening the institutions of the state makes sense in the abstract, but providing millions of dollars in aid and development money to a government controlled by a party our own government labels a terrorist organization? No. (On the bright side, hey U.S. tax-payers, you just saved $100 million annually!**)
This is the new era into which Lebanon has entered. The big winner in all of this, of course, is the government of Israel, which has long claimed that Lebanon is Hizballah (and visa versa) and can now credibly make that claim on the international stage in the event of another war.
The big loser in all of this? Everyone north of the Blue Line.
*As my buddy Sean pointed out, though, you don't have to work hard to imagine what Hizballah would have done if the March 14th coalition, employing the same logic as Hizballah and its allies now, had decided to choose someone other than Nabih Berri to serve as the speaker of parliament. It's kind of charming, in a perverse way, that Hizballah is behaving like any other participant in a democratic system, demanding rights when in opposition that it seeks to deny others when in the majority. It's less charming, of course, when you realize that Hizballah has a massive arsenal with which it can back up its own grievances.
**I would like to think our wise government will take this $100 million and use it to pay down the interest on our debt, but our Congress will probably blow it all on booze and Cheetos for its Super Bowl party.
UPDATE: Some smart comments from the readership. I will try to respond to them as the day goes on. I have responded to three such comments thus far but have just turned off al-Jazeera and am closing up the laptop so I can get ready for work. Sadly, I am speaking at the Middle East Institute today ... on Afghanistan. But I may call an audible at the line of scrimmage and open the discussion up to the events in Lebanon after we exhaust Afghanistan as a topic of conversation, so if you are around and want to harass me in person for anything I have written here, drop by.
UPDATE II: Man, the comments thread is smoking. Some great stuff. Let me point you all, though, toward some really good political analysis by Elias and Sean. Unlike me, Sean is in Beirut. And Elias is one of the smartest political analysts I know when it comes to Lebanon. Both dudes are great. One thing I want to stress is that I think war would be tragic for both the peoples of Lebanon and Israel. I think it would be a really, really bad idea and would not advance anyone's interests. Okay? That having been said, in previous engagements, the United States and others have asked the Israelis to distinguish between Hizballah and the government of Lebanon, while Israel has insisted the two were best considered one and the same. I realize that Hizballah has allies in its coalition, but there can be little debate about who the senior partner in the coalition is, right? In addition, you guys can all see how it will be tougher to claim the government of Lebanon and Hizballah are not one and the same when Israel starts bombing infrastructure in the next war, right? That's all I am trying to say. I am not saying bombing Lebanese infrastructure in the event of another war makes strategic or even tactical sense because I do not think that war itself makes much sense.
The Lebanese (and to a
The Lebanese (and to a greater extent, the Palestinians) have been, continue to be, and will be for years to come, the cannon fodder of fanatic Islam. Hopefully they will wake up. We see some semblence of sleepy shifting around going on in the West Bank, but any attempt in Lebanon of its people to overcome their state of being a Syrian-Iranian puppet is being swatted once again.
"And now, Hizballah has
"And now, Hizballah has formed its first government in Lebanon..."
The correct term would be, as you wrote earlier, "Hizballah and allies". This government is not under full HA control any more than the last one was under full Hariri control -- they are a dominant element, but not a majority or in full control of M8 politics.
HA is now entering into a new power-sharing coalition with Amal, Mikati's people, Aoun's people & others, just as they were in a national unity gov with Hariri and M14 before, albeit in a secondary and semi-oppositional role. The roles are reversed, with the exception that M14 refuses to take the minority role in the gov, unlike M8 in the last one (possibly for good reasons, but still, there it is). Also, it's hardly the first time HA overtly or quietly supports a sitting PM -- remember Rafiq el-Hariri's fine relations with "the resistance", for most of his career. From your post, one gets the sense that this is the first time HA decided to play politics. It's really not, even if it's a step further this time.
So the bottom line is: HA now has a larger share of influence than they had a month ago, but a Mikati government is not equal to or under the control of HA, and neither is Lebanon as a country. A rather important distinction if you're arguing that it would be okay to attack the country if HA formed a government of its own...
"This is the new era into
"This is the new era into which Lebanon has entered. The big winner in all of this, of course, is the government of Israel"
What nonsense. Israel has nothing to gain from instability in Lebanon.
The true winners of this round are Iran and Syria who will fight Israel to the last Lebanese.
I take your points, aron, but
I take your points, aron, but Hizballah is still the most powerful party in Lebanon's ruling coalition. The distinctions you make will be lost on policy-makers in Israel and Washington.
No, you are wrong about one
No, you are wrong about one thing, ih: Israel has always preferred to view Lebanon through a black-and-white lens and has long argued that Lebanon is under de facto Syrian/Iranian control. Now their claims are more credible. I suspect your last sentence, though, is accurate.
AM, Did you forget the
AM,
Did you forget the paragraph where you provide the justification for this Israeli attack?
If a member of Congress does ask for justification for the continued support of the LAF here's a couple of good answers. One, a strong Lebanese army is the only way you can ever chip at the legitimacy of the Resistance (and no the STL wont cut it) and two, Hizballah have little need for the Cessnas and ad flashlights the US provides. Considering the US has given the LAF no weaponry that Hizballah does not have more and better versions of, it also gives the kind of stuff (eg the cessnas, used humvess (HA is a Range Rover only kind of organisation) etc.) that they do not use. Besides can you see Hizballlah actually trusting American provided stuff?
mo, brother, all of your
mo, brother, all of your explanations are ones I have used in the past to justify US military aid to Lebanon and NONE of them will make sense to the Congress now. None of them. As far as Israeli attacks on Lebanon, I think they would be very, very foolish. But Hizballah is not the dominant force in the ruling coalition. So saying that "the government of Lebanon is not the same thing as Hizballah" is a lot harder today than yesterday.
The only argument I think you
The only argument I think you can make to keep funding the LAF is that it has historically stayed independent of the Lebanese government and politics. Admittedly, that was largely because they were too weak and divided on sectarian lines to take an active stand on anything. But still, there's still reason to believe the LAF could prove a counterweight to Hezbollah. But then you have to ask if we really want to be funding a military to balance a democratically elected government. And more importantly, I doubt Congress would buy that argument anyway.
Yet it'd be a shame to give up on the Lebanese people. So long as Hezbollah is in power, we could convert that military aid to economic assistance, focusing on underdeveloped Shi'ite and Palestinian neighborhoods especially. While that might help in the long run, it'd do nothing to prevent unwanted escalations on the Blue Line. So instead, we could look at using the military assistance money to bolster UNIFIL, which has yet to fill its 15,000 soldier mandate set forth by UNSCR 1701. I'm sure we can find some countries to fill the UNIFIL ranks in exchange for what should have been the LAF's money. Congress would still be a big obstacle, but not an insurmountable one.
The roles are reversed, with
The roles are reversed, with the exception that M14 refuses to take the minority role in the gov, unlike M8 in the last one (possibly for good reasons, but still, there it is).
Sorry, but no. The whole point of toppling the gov't in 2006-2008 was to claim that when Amal and Hezbollah ministers resigned, the Sinoura government would no longer represent Shi'a since Amal and Hezbollah represent that sect. March 8 absolutely refused to accept a government in which their ministers were replaced with Shi'a from March 14. Likewise, when March 8 lost the elections in 2009, there was never any way that March 8 would have accepted a March 14 candidate replacing Nabih Berri as speaker of the parliament.
And then in the end, March 8 rejoined the government after taking off West Beirut and then from their position of power forcing a larger stake in the "national unity government."
Hariri is following Hezbollah's lead from several years ago by playing the sectarian card and going into the street. Either what's good for the goose is good for the gander, or it's wrong for both parties.
Personally, I think the idea of "no victor, no vanquished," which has been used to justify paralyzed governments of "national unity" is stupid -- at least when it comes to coalition politics. I think the best thing for Lebanon would be to have a proper government and proper opposition, and when one side loses, they bow out of government. The problem is that 2008 showed that while Hezbollah is willing to forget about how the country is ruled, that does not extend to questions of the "Resistance." And there are certain lines that cannot be overstepped by whatever group is in power without Hezbollah resorting to arms.
And therein lies the rub.
I guess you meant Hizballah
I guess you meant Hizballah is "now" the dominant force, and yes I guess they are in an abstract kind of way. I don't think Hizballah wanted this but I think they consider it the lesser evil over having stayed in the last cabinet. Time will only tell where the chips are going to fall
Good comments from both Ibn
Good comments from both Ibn Larry and Sean, with whom I largely agree.
Agreed, mo. I certainly do
Agreed, mo. I certainly do think Hizballah is resting easy about this.
CORRECTION: I certainly do
CORRECTION: I certainly do NOT think Hizballah is resting easy about this.
Go or
Go or Chess?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8Xvxop_cFc
Maybe it is time to provide more funding to Mossad. ..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ga1QlgBXtQQ
Then again, prolonged conflicts never served anyone. Something that we are missing in Afghanistan as the American people turn on the strategy. Surges work (did for the Viet Cong in Tet), but you have to have the moral influence which America does not have in Afghanistan due to the corrupt Karzai Government. The only thing left is to bribe the people, with money that the US does not have, which is not a lasting or honorable strategy.
.............................
Glad to see that you got your mind right. There will be no responsible budgets until Congress keeps its Cheetos spending down. There is no credibility until that happens and the nation will find that out tonight. Words do not have a lasting impact, actions do.
. . That's a good one....."we
.
.
That's a good one....."we could convert that military aid to economic assistance"
A prime minister chosen by Hezbollah and its allies won enough support on Monday to form Lebanon’s government, unleashing angry protests, realigning politics and culminating the generation-long ascent of the Shiite Muslim movement from shadowy militant group to the country’s pre-eminent political and military force.
Giving economic assistance to a democracy that put Hezbollah in power. Sounds like what happened with ObamaCare! Be like the Democrats giving campaign donations to the Republican party! Twisted thought.
AM with your own words....."that Hizballah is Lebanon, and Lebanon is Hizballah"
*Some wars should not be fought.
*Don't jump into a battle without thinking through to the end and the cost to the nation (on both sides).
Maybe it is time to let this one play out. I think that the current conflicts in the region are a good example.
These guys are caught up in the battle and can not see the end. The battle in itself has become the strategy.
Talking about
Talking about Cheetos......
**The Climate Control talks in Copenhagen were a boondoggle. How many people did Obama drag with him?
** I would love to see the Air Force One travel budget. Shame it is classified. We can see between the lines. Everytime POTUS moves so does the secret service. More than triple the cost of AF1 operational costs and you would be close. It is 100's of millions of dollars. Just the fuel cost of flying a 747-200 is about $20,000/hr.
** How much did it cost to have Xe bail out Florida's Democratic Congressmen Grayson's butt out of Niger in Feb of 2010. That had to cost some bucks just for the Congressman to go to Niger in the first place! What the hell does Niger have that would be important to taxpayers in Grayson's FLORIDA district.
**Pelosi flew private military planes and Boenher flies commercial. Mostly Pelosi flew the DOD business sized jets, but she wanted bigger ones didn't she. When asked about her couple thousand dollar/ month bottled water budget her reply was, "we do a lot of entertaining". Last time I checked, the government buildings had plumbing.
**How much did it cost to fly POTUS to Tuson? Speaker Boenher did not go, he mourned from Washington. POTUS plans to mourn Giffords AGAIN? during SOTU. That's a lot of press time on the taxpayers budget think they are calling it "atmospherics". I call it smoke and mirrors, just a diversion cause Americans are not doing well so we have to talk about something else. It is the same diversion during ObamaCare, a year wasted on health care while the unemployment rate was stuck over 9%. Now the Republicans have to waste time with things that should have never happened like 1099 tax paperwork, the places that the Democrats got the money to pay for/justify ObamaCare.
**What was the cost of the State Dinner on the WH lawn for the past two years? Speaker Boenher turned down the invite didn't he. People in America are jobless, they would like some Cheetos too.
That is a lot of Cheetos. POTUS wants more?(education?, our University wastes a lot of money!)
How about showing me that you can stay within your operational costs first. Then you can work on waste and fraud. Medicare and Medicaid fraud would save a lot. Then you can work on DOD waste.
Then you can come and ask me to increase my taxes, when I know what the true cost of government is.
Then and only then, we can talk about money for the LAF......reality is a bitch.
..........maybe it is time you take a pause and look at what the TRUE cost of involvement is BEFORE you leap (isn't the the Democrat complaint against BUSH and IRAQ?)............history repeats itself. 2012....Obama did it....Obama did it.....Obama did it.....Yes, he did.
SEAN - You're right about
SEAN - You're right about that, in fact. I also think that it's plain wrong to shove an unwanted PM down the Sunni throat, now that the Lebanese system is what it is. It's wrong because it destabilizes the situation more than was needed, if HA really cared about the country, and it's probably a tactical error on the part of HA & Co as well given how much Sunni resentment it has caused. There was just no reason to go nuclear at this stage, unless they care more about the STL than about anything else -- and QED.
On the original point, I'm not trying to cover for HA, which I think is at heart a destructive force for Lebanon (even though I see where it's coming from) and not much help in Israeli-Arab peacemaking either, since 2000. But I also don't think the difference between a Mikati gov and any past coalition is big enough to be cause for a change in Washington's attitude to the country as a whole. This government will not mean that Lebanon = Iran if the last one didn't mean something like that, too. The difference exists, and it's relevant for Lebanon, but it's not all that huge in foreign relations, and particularly not in relations to Israel, which are dictated by HA & its sponsors whatever happens.
As AM pointed out in his response above, such a distinction is probably lost on US policy-makers, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be made. And I think his original post wasn't really helpful in that regard.
Hizbullah and the Resistance
Hizbullah and the Resistance is the only force that has brought ANYTHING to Lebanon: from getting prisoners back to liberating south Lebanon, nothing has been achieved by discussing with americans.
The same applies to Palestine. Resistance is the only way.
Andrew Exum, mr. Abu Muqawama (how dare you take an arab nickname...), you do not understand the region, because you are not an arab, and your analysis fall short because you've been brought up on this side of the world, with a twisted view.
STL is a clear american tool to keep the lebanese crisis going, it's a political tool.
" It's less charming, of course, when you realize that Hizballah has a massive arsenal with which it can back up its own grievances. " < This is again a ridiculous biased image. The Arms of the Resistance are positive.
ps: censor this message all you want.
On counterweights to HA, by
On counterweights to HA, by the way, I've long thought that is something you don't get except through Syria. First, Syria's cooperation or active intervention is probably needed to seriously cut down HA's influence or force its acquiesence. Second, it's also the only country in the region that could build up alternative Shia actors in any sort of effective way, since it already has a bunch of second-tier characters hanging around. They are tied to Damascus rather than independent -- like Amal, Jamil El Sayed and his ilk, perhaps parts of HA, etc -- which is not not a lovely cast of characters, but infinitely better for conflict-resolution purposes than the present situation where HA is semi-independent in decision-making, and pays more attention to Khamenei than Bashar. (For the simple reason that Syria is easier to deal with than Iran, whatever else it is or isn't.)
Point being, strenghtening the Lebanese military is all good and well, since it provides some institutional backbone to the state, but it's not something that will work magic without a political deal. It could, however, prove to be very very handy when or if the HA security hegemony expires.
"And even people like me, who
"And even people like me, who genuinely love Lebanon and its people and do not like to see either bombed, will not have much of an argument for why Israel should not".
Really pathetic
Congress is Israel Occupied
Congress is Israel Occupied Territory no less than the Golan Heights or West Bank. They can keep their Cessnas & flashlights. Meanwhile our gold & blood goes to fund a brutal occupation:
"Uri Avnery-The Israeli Peace Activist The Darkness to Expel (All paid for w/ U.S. $$ & backing) “You can do whatever you feel like, nobody is going to question it”, “You shoot at the TV set for fun”, “I did not know that there were roads for Jews only”, “A kind of total arbitrariness”, “The [Hebron settler] boys beat up the old woman”...
http://www.avnery-news.co.il/english/index.html
Jeepers..... Americans can
Jeepers.....
Americans can not get their pissing contest right and we think we should tell Lebanon how to run theirs.....
BTW....Not-a-traitor.
Buddy of mine was born and raised in Lebanon, true Arab. His job was offshored, we are equal rights sort of folks here in the US. Worked with Anees for a long time, bright well educated guy saved my butt a couple of times on projects. He really did not open up to me until he trusted me. His position was offshored cause it was cheaper to do his function in a country that did not compete fairly, but that is another story all together. I brought in a guy named Mohamad to interview for an Electical Engineering position. Anees made a comment, "Thats one of them". I took Mohamad out to a ME restaurant for lunch during interviews. Mohamad commented, "This must be an Egyptian place". I ingored that comment, I really did not notice until Mohamad unhappily pointed it out. My peers did not want to hire Mohamad cause he was system oriented not what the job position called for. For me, I would have been fine. Most people learn their function if they have the basic education. My company would have liked Mohamad, he came with a seven year contract.
Another friend of mine came out of Laos. His brother is still wanted by the New Government. Phan swam across the Mekong river in 1975 to get out and end up in France for a while then in the US. Actually Phan will be Duck Sauce if he goes back to Laos, I guess to many things happened in the Plain of Jars. Phan's number hit in the layoff lottery and most people get sad. Phan just said,"what are they worried about they lost their job and I lost my country!". When Phan's position got offshored to that same country that does not compete fairly, I was able to get him a job again. Phan save my butt a couple times too. Phan has a wife and a few really bright kids. Phan was paying for one of his son's Chemical Engineering degree in college at the time of his layoff. Last I heard Phan was still employed and his son was working on his Masters.
I worked with a lot of people like Anees and Phan. All well educated with interesting stories. All offshored to places that do not compete fairly. Finally, I took a voluntary layoff and saved one more American's job who was putting a son through college. I have been unemployed since.
It is not about where you were born, it is about what you believe is right in you heart.
So much for that nonsense
So much for that nonsense claim of terming Hezbollah as a "nonstate" actor.
US aid to Lebanon? Merely (tentative) puppet strings.
Sunnis angered by the move? It's a reality (like Iraq's Shia government) they'll just have to get used to.
Israeli aggression towards the new reality? Like that's anything new.
Great move of the US trying to force that politically motivated STL proceeding down everybody's throat, heh? How ya likin' them apples?
Question: Would the Lebanese
Question: Would the Lebanese army actually carry out orders from Hizballah for any action against Israel? It seems that Iran...I mean Hizballah has the missing chess piece that it didn't have in 2006, but would the Lebanese army actually fight preemptively, or more likely in defense of Lebanon after Israel invades to stop cross border raids.
Assassination is one of the
Assassination is one of the primary tools of statecraft for Israel, much as covert destabilization of other nations has become a signature of conservative US foreign policy.
We have great capabilities; this is what we use them for.
Fail
"I want, though, to focus on
"I want, though, to focus on how this plays into the way another war between Hizballah and Israel might look. ...
This is the new era into which Lebanon has entered. The big winner in all of this, of course, is the government of Israel, which has long claimed that Lebanon is Hizballah (and visa versa) and can now credibly make that claim on the international stage in the event of another war.
The big loser in all of this? Everyone north of the Blue Line."
You're an idiot.
Any war would weaken Israel even more and strengthen the resistance. it would radicalize people.
Idiots like you defended Mubarak and Ben Ali. You prefer sponsors to Salafists to Iran. Is Saudi Arabia a democracy? And if you include the west bank and Gaza, Israel is a democracy for exactly half its population. Iran does better than that.
Has Hezbollah been rioting and burning tires? Did Hezbollah thugs just attack a Jazeera news van?
No those are your guys. And Hariri is going crying back to Saudi Arabia. Why don't you join him?
Couple of things that get
Couple of things that get missed here:
Christian ranks after the 2005 election were also marginalized (well always since the TAEF was signed). Aoun had 70% of the Christian vote (I know, not directly) but his party did, yet he was snubbed for the Presidents role. No one seemed to care much then and the Christian street accepted it as part of the democratic process (or more likely out of weakness).
Second, the M14 gang can simply resign from government all together. That would leave parliament with 60 less people that represent a little under 1/2 of the Lebanese voters and a dead duct government. Force a new election and to the victor can come the spoils. Why wait until 2013? This would also allow time for the STL to make the indictments public.
To one of your simple posters, to consider the STL a tool by the West is ridiculous.
A Question... Interesting
A Question...
Interesting thinking re: Hizballah is Lebanon, Lebanon is Hizballah, and all the talk about how this would effect a future Israeli attack. One question that would appear firstly in my mind is how the Lebanese Military would react in a future Israeli war ?
If Hezbollah was the ruling party (as they appear to democratically be with the druze vote) I would assume Hezbollah would then have the power to order the Lebanese Military to actually assist in fighting back during another Israeli attack. (I see a situation such as Hezbollah would be active south of Litani river or south of Beirut, while the Lebanese army would maintain defenses in the Northern parts and the coast, generally watching Hezbollah's back).
Also if Israel does start widespread bombing of the whole state I think it would be untenable for the Lebanese Armed Forces to just sit back like they did last time.
Of course all this ads another dimension to a future attack since Lebanon has fairly advanced Russian gunships, and 23 US attack helicopters and alot of French military technology.
All in all it seems to be a tour-de-force by Hezbollah. They have come out of this with a government majority and looking peaceful while the Pro March 14 faction are burning flags on the streets and throwing tantrums after fairly losing a majority in government.
AM.....per you.... One thing
AM.....per you....
One thing I want to stress is that I think war would be tragic for both the peoples of Lebanon and Israel.
I really do not want to see these guys go at it...
Shouldn't it be up to them? They know it will hurt too.
The only true peace will come when they agree to it, not us. I think they have some differences to work out. Sometimes the horror of war is the only way to see what you're doing wrong. Seems to me that is what the US has done in Iraq and Afghanstan all along. We sure did it in Vietnam.
.............................
Another person I worked with came out of Vietnam (actually there were a lot more). Going into Vuong's home was like taking a trip into Vietnam, little spooky first time I met his wife. Vuong was another person I knew that lost his job to that country that does not compete fairly. Since he had a heart attack a few years back loosing his job was a death sentence, he is not insurable. Knew a another guy in the same position. Voung's kids were starting college about the time he won the layoff lottery, eldest daughter was going into Medical school in Miami, Fl. Always knew that Vuong was a teacher in Vietnam, that was his ticket out. One day, we were doing some test work and he stoped and told me his home was the La Trang Valley. Rough place La Trang was. Ironic the guys trying to kill him in Vietnam are the someones that took his job many years later.
How do you tell a person to be more Competitive when it is out of the control of good educated people?.....It is about over head costs.,,end of story.
When Obama was playing community leader, I was competing to save my job ! I won so many times, there was a place for me for a long time to come in our company. It gets to the point that winning becomes losing. 12,000 people down to 1,700.
You have to go through it to understand it.....just like the folks in the ME need to understand their future.
Hear Intel is expanding operations in Israel. They are going to hire 1,000 people. That is a hoot, a war zone is more stable than the US.
Aside from the (likely) U.S.
Aside from the (likely) U.S. freeze or hold of military aid to Lebanon - which was stepped up in 2007, really, and had been quite meager until that point in time - there are a couple other fronts which a government under Hizbullah's sway might seek to act.
First, as most readers probably anticipate, the Mikati-led government will probably vote on issues related to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). These would include the STL-Lebanon treaty; security services cooperation with, and protection of, UN investigators; Lebanese government funding (49% of the STL's annual budget); and the "false witnesses" issue. Of course, the Tribunal can proceed under Chapter VII authority and can hold trials in absentia, but Hizbullah would be seeking another cut against the body's credibility.
Second, the government might seek to halt (if the U.S. doesn't freeze) cooperation between the U.S. government and the Internal Security Forces, perhaps by abrogating a 2007 US-ISF security cooperation agreement that has been the subject of controversy.
The comments on this post have been pretty interesting, and I think Sean's point about the double standard that each side is applying is in line with many commentators' initial reactions to the events in Lebanon (http://pagelebanon.com/2011/01/24/despicable-demonstrations-march-14s-co...).
That said, tire-burning - like all other sorts of maneuvering - is far more effective when a well-trained, highly disciplined, and zealous military organization has its gun behind a cause.
I think you have a very
I think you have a very simplistic view of Israel and its interests. Yes the current events make it easier for Israel to make Hasbarah, but for some reason you presuppose Israel is just ecstatic to get involved in another war. Nothing could be further from the truth. Israeli interests call for a stable, independent and western aligned government in Lebanon. Not easier targets for war.
The fact that Israeli claims will be more credible to western ears makes absolutely no difference, since Israel has much more to lose from a stronger, more influential and better equipped Hizballah. There's absolutely no joy in being able to say "told you so" when your dire predictions somehow came true.
This turn of events makes war more likely, because as soon as Hizballah gets bogged down in political crisis, a well planned provocation could solve all their problems. At the same time, this puts Hizballah in a much better position of preparing for that war, and makes the Lebanese Army a definite player in such war.
Israel has everything to lose from this, and it's incredibly surprising that you value a meaningless tactical propaganda victory over a major strategic turn for the worse for Israeli interests. Where has your analytical skill evaporated?
Why dont you guys just reveal
Why dont you guys just reveal the location of Nasrallah bunkers and HA weapons warehouses.....just saying
hope Israel dumps 200 tons of
hope Israel dumps 200 tons of Willie Pete on these fools. tourism will be down probably for the next decade. oh well....
Agreed if Update II included,
Agreed if Update II included, and nice comments all around. Just wanted to add Zvi Bar'el in today's Ha'aretz, who sort of skirts the main issue (a weak PM alienating his own sect) and glosses over the tool-for-HA-angle, but apart from that makes a few interesting points. From the conclusion:
Lebanon will not suddenly become more Iranian or more "Hezbollian" than it was two days ago. It will primarily be more Syrian...
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/lebanon-is-not-moving-closer-t...
I doubt we can tell it's more
I doubt we can tell it's more Syrian or not. It's getting more Hizballa, and that's clear. Trouble is, as far as I understand the situation, Syria lost a whole lot of control over Hizbullah. It has given them a blank card to do what they will in Lebanon, and they pretty much used it to bolster Iranian influence. Let's not forget Hizballah is in many ways, a child of the Iranian revolution, and its leadership closely linked to Iran.
There are a couple of jokers
There are a couple of jokers (in all senses of the word) in this whole scenario, they're called Michel Aoun and Walid Jumblatt. Aoun still holds the largest block in parliament after Hariri, a monobloc of 18 MPs, which is higher than Amal's 13 and Hezbollah's 12. Add to it Jumblatt's 7 (and his MVP role in the latest match), and you get a good lever to position them strongly in any new ministerial distribution.
you can call these two guys all the names you want, but he still can play a positive role in reducing the sectarian image of the new government, especially as HA seems to have taken the position to not be represented directly this time around, and I think one shouldn't underestimate their flair for strategic and tactical play.
It would be harder than you seem to think to get an an international consensus against a new lebanese government headed by one of the most secular businessmen in lebanon, richer than saad, with just as many regional and international connections and interests, with 15 christian ministers, 5 druze, and with zero Hezbollah ministers.
There are a couple of jokers
There are a couple of jokers (in all senses of the word) in this whole scenario, they're called Michel Aoun and Walid Jumblatt. Aoun still holds the largest block in parliament after Hariri, a monobloc of 18 MPs, which is higher than Amal's 13 and Hezbollah's 12. Add to it Jumblatt's 7 (and his MVP role in the latest match), and you get a good lever to position them strongly in any new ministerial distribution.
you can call these two guys all the names you want, but he still can play a positive role in reducing the sectarian image of the new government, especially as HA seems to have taken the position to not be represented directly this time around, and I think one shouldn't underestimate their flair for strategic and tactical play.
It would be harder than you seem to think to get an an international consensus against a new lebanese government headed by one of the most secular businessmen in lebanon, richer than saad, with just as many regional and international connections and interests, with 15 christian ministers, 5 druze, and with zero Hezbollah ministers.
1) If Israel was to attack,
1) If Israel was to attack, the army would do what it is hired to do, and defend. This strikes me as a very simple statement to make, yet most of you have over-looked it. This was tested by Israel in the summer (Aug 2010) - the tree incident - when Israel attacked. And the Lebanese Armed Forces retaliated. It's not a question of whether or not the army will 'obey' Hizbullah. The army's job description is to defend the nation.
2) Military aid from the United States. We have received all of $720 million over the last five years? Oh wow, what are we going to do without it?? It's almost embarrassing the fact that this is even a discussion point.
3) "And even people like me, who genuinely love Lebanon and its people and do not like to see either bombed, will not have much of an argument for why Israel should not." How about the fact that any attack would be illegitimate? Israel not liking its northern neighbour is not enough of a reason to justify an attack. And since 2006, Hizbullah has not initiated any cross border clashes. So yes, from Israel it would be an attack, not a defense.
4) The STL. I almost feel like patting people on the head and saying 'aww' to those who still try and argue the Tribunal's credibility.
Lebanon is moving in a direction that the US is not in favour of. Suck it up.
1) If Israel was to attack,
1) If Israel was to attack, the army would do what it is hired to do, and defend. This strikes me as a very simple statement to make, yet most of you have over-looked it. This was tested by Israel in the summer (Aug 2010) - the tree incident - when Israel attacked. And the Lebanese Armed Forces retaliated. It's not a question of whether or not the army will 'obey' Hizbullah. The army's job description is to defend the nation.
2) Military aid from the United States. We have received all of $720 million over the last five years? Oh wow, what are we going to do without it?? It's almost embarrassing the fact that this is even a discussion point.
3) "And even people like me, who genuinely love Lebanon and its people and do not like to see either bombed, will not have much of an argument for why Israel should not." How about the fact that any attack would be illegitimate? Israel not liking its northern neighbour is not enough of a reason to justify an attack. And since 2006, Hizbullah has not initiated any cross border clashes. So yes, from Israel it would be an attack, not a defense.
4) The STL. I almost feel like patting people on the head and saying 'aww' to those who still try and argue the Tribunal's credibility.
Lebanon is moving in a direction that the US is not in favour of. Suck it up.
SIRO - Yes, generally since
SIRO - Yes, generally since 2005 this has undoubtedly been the way things have been moving. But this particular crisis, the past few weeks -- I don't see how that can be understood as expanding Iranian influence. Rather the contrary, HA is under pressure and forced to act preemptively, and may be taking on more of a political role than they can sustain. By engineering a government crisis and deciding to set up a new gov, they become more, not less, reliant on other forces, which in this case is mainly Syria and its allies (smaller M8 groups, Mikati, Jumblatt...). And I would never underestimate the Assad regime's capacity to exploit a crisis or play the mediating role.
AM.... Bet your happy that
AM....
Bet your happy that the SOTU is over. I turned the TV off before it started. Guess I better look for a job in education or government like you AM.....
What is the fuss? Najib A. Mikati http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205228
Mikati's Resume.
http://harrisschool.uchicago.edu/boards/dic/members/mikati.asp
Jeepers! Looks like Hizballah got a suit. No longer that image of an AK tot'in bomb lov'in rag head terrorist anymore. You got to give them credit, they clean-up pretty good.
Welcome to globalization guys. Washington is pushing the "international order" and Hizballah just made a place for itself at the table. Hizballah took a page from Obama's SOTU and got innovative!
Think ole' Hillary better buck up in her blazing purple evening suit and realize if she does not recognize Mikati (and indirectly Hizballah) that Hizballah will make POTUS look as backwards as the Democrats made the Republicans on the DADT issue.
Its a bitch to be progressive. Let see $720 Million Foreign Aid to Hizballah....2012 US election. What did Johnny use to say on the tonight show?///// Bommmmmmbmmmmo! Sort of fits in to the discussion. The $720M is not a problem for the ME people, hell the US gave it to them. The $720M is a problem for the people that dished it out, someone has to justify the foreign aid! Think it time the US looks at its Foreign Aid spending anyway, happy it happened this way.
I will give Israel its due. They have been smart with collecting intelligence and being a world player. Israelis sort of washed up on the beach one day and moved in to a new land. While I guess it is not that easy, sort of takes us into the twelve tribes. Not simple at all.
Think Israel should have seen this day coming for a long time and if they collect intelligence they did, again giving them their due.
So I say,,,,,what is the fuss?
Must be a bugger to have your existance questioned all the time. Sort of like the brithers with Obama and the Illinois Supreme Court with Rahmmy. If you have ever read the Illinois Statues, it one hacked up piece of regulation (what would you expect for Durbin's home state). Paying Illinois income tax does not have anything to do about residency, they try to get everyone to pay for their agenda. Right now Illinois is looking at a SEC investigation on their bonds.
Does not stop here in Lebanon. If I can see the future, Iraq is headed in the same direction.
Democracy in the ME? Be careful what you wish for. I said a long time ago if the radicals want Iraq, they should help the US military out peacefully then elect their government (think that is what they did, they just got paid for the trouble.....Sons of Iraq.....silly US that is not "us", it is Americans ).
Trillion dollars and full circle.
Guys it is their country, we can not manage ours why are we messing with theirs?
This is between Lebanon and Israel.
>The $720M is a problem for
>The $720M is a problem for the people that dished it out, someone has to justify the foreign aid!
Nope, not at all. The way it works in the area studies field is like this: university students go overseas for a little bit, and finds a region where the people treat them nice, the food is good, the girls (boys) are hot or whatever. Then they spend grad school focused on this region. They eventually wind up in State, academia, an NGO or a think tank as a Zambia/Mongolia/Sakhalin expert. Since fundamentally nobody cares about this obscure region, and it is impossible for their assertions to be proven wrong through academic debate, they are left alone with their salary, which is not exorbitant but more than your average mechanic makes. Then, when Zambia/Mongolia/Sakhalin blows up or finds oil deposits, they are the ones who look like they know what they're talking about. The civil servants who write policy for congress and the executive branch go to them for "expert" advice, and of course their answer is "Zambia/Mongolia/Sakhalin is quintessential strategically-it is the nexus of Southern Africa/Central Asia/the Far East! Democracy is at stake! Moar moneez plz." Foreign aid, endowments etc. flow forth like a mighty river. The regional "expert" gets put in charge of an apparatus and treated like a prom queen. When, years later, it empirically becomes obvious that the regional "expert" had their head up their rectum, that their understanding of their region was either shallow, flawed or backwards, that our foreign policy was misguided and worse than if we'd had none at all (at least Hezballah would have $700 billion less worth of arms and training available to them,) the expert and civil servants fade off the scene. In the rare event that it becomes expedient for congress to conduct an inquiry into how this all came about and it does go through, the expert will never be accountable for the waste and carnage that were caused by their line of bullshit actually being turned into policy.
We've been doing this dickdance for at least 80 years: see Owen Lattimore, the area studies expert, academician, think tank head and civil servant, the Old Man of China Studies, the Man Who Lost China, the guy who visited the GULAGs in 1944 with the VPOTUS and came back to sung their praises. When the one in a million event did occur and he was called to account before Congress for the horrifying and disastrous results of his policies (supporting the USSR, defunding the KMT in China,) even though his colleagues and associates like Professor Nicholas Poppe (look that one up if you're in the mood for a fascinating slice of 20th century history) conclusively demonstrated who and what he was all about, Lattimore escaped practically unscathed (I'm sure that the fact that he had to go teach in Britain was a consolation for the tens of millions whose lives were crushed or ended as a direct result of his policies). So, no, nobody really has to justify anything.
@aron - fair point. I agree
@aron - fair point. I agree with what you said, and I haven't thought it through.
However, I think in the long run, if Hizballah manages to keep its influence in government, eventually they'll break free of the need for Syrian support. It's treaty with Syria is practical - prior to 2005 it absolutely had to have Syrian support. Now it really needs it, but as direct Syrian power in Lebanon wanes, Hizballah slowly becomes more independent, while Syria becomes more dependent on Hizballah to do its bidding. Sure, they trade rockets and firearms now. But my feeling is, that eventually Hizballah will break free from Syrian influence while keeping its ideological and financial allegiance to Iran.
@Anon 5:25am - while I agree with your general point (Lebanese Army will participate in future conflicts) you seem to misplace blame on who started shit in August. Even the UN admit Israel was right, and it was a pure Lebanese provocation, and an assassination of an Israeli colonel.
Abu, You've nailed the
Abu,
You've nailed the problem by pointing out that in 93', 96' (my war) and 06' Israel pounded Lebanon because we didn't want to go after the real Ma and Pa of Hezbollah - Syria and Iran. Mainly, the Israeli response wasn't an expression of a finite strategy (unlike the 82' campaign, which had a specific endgame in mind), but a sop to the enraged public which couldn't stomach Hezbollah's provocations. The motto was "Let's beat the hell out of them until our internal public opinion is satisfied and someone brings a proposal for a ceasefire". It was always understood that the only real path to eradicating Hezbollah as a military threat is to conquer much of Lebanon (just like in 82' with the PLO), kill or capture most of Hezbollah fighters and destroy the training camps and the supply depots in Bekaa valley. The logical extension of this is a war with Syria, which wouldn't be able to withstand the twin pressure of its own public and of Iran. The costs are simply too high, and in the end, we must ask ourselves "do we want our soldiers to die in order to rid Lebanon of Hezbollah and maybe bring democracy to Syria"? That, by the way, is the logic which prevents Israel from destroying Hamas in Gaza (a much more simple task) - why do the PA job for it? Israel wants to deter Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria, not to rearrange the Levant. The unilateral withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza and the departure of PM Sharon had created a crisis of deterrence, which was rectified by the 06' war (never mind the lack of "victory", the very decision of the dovish Olmert government to go into war was a shocker to Nasrallah), the bombing of the Syrian reactor in 07' and the Gaza operation in the end of 08'. Frankly, Jerusalem doesn't care if Hezbollah is accumulating rockets while sitting outside of Lebanese government or in it - Israel will not attack Lebanon, unless provoked. The most plausible scenario of such provocation is the Hezbollah rocket retaliation against Israeli cities in case Israel attacks Iranian nuclear sites. In such case, the above endgame will indeed play out.
Best
Youre a real deep thniekr.
Youre a real deep thniekr. Thanks for sharing.
Great tihnikng! That really
Great tihnikng! That really breaks the mold!
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