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Egypt Trip Report: Part II
February 20, 2011 | Posted by Abu Muqawama - 9:20am | 25 Comments
I am rather busy today, traveling around looking for answers to some of the security-related questions I posed in Part I of my Egypt Trip Report (see below). I want to briefly share, though, an interesting wrinkle to a rather polarized debate that has developed concerning the role the Internet and social media played in the protests in Egypt and the eventual downfall of Hosni Mubarak. Both sides of the debate, a friend told me last night, are essentially correct: yes, the Internet, Facebook and Twitter played a terribly important role in mobilizing the Egyptians who filled the streets of Egypt to protest the regime. But yes, too, it took ACTUAL BODIES out there in the streets and not "Facebook Revolutionaries" just re-tweeting the struggle from the comfort of their homes. One interesting piece of analysis I have now heard from several smart observers is that by shutting down the Internet and the cellular phone networks, the Egyptian regime actually *increased* the number of Egyptians on the streets protesting. Not only did shutting down the Internet force people to leave the house and physically connect with their fellow protesters, but one friend noted that if you really want to piss off all of Egypt, a good way to do so is by shutting off cell phone service. More than Facebook or Twitter, cellular phone service unites Egyptians in a virtual community. And by shutting down cellular phone service, you're sure to anger Egyptians of all generations and classes -- and not just the college kids with Facebook accounts. So score one for the enduring power of 20th Century technology, perhaps.
Isn't it true that every
Isn't it true that every revolution could not have happened without whatever technological means were at hand to gather, rally supporters, keep supporters informed, set events etc. etc.?
AM: If you have time, check
AM: If you have time, check out my op ed in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the role of Twitter. Instead of looking at its effect within Egypt, I focus more on its role in building connections between Egyptians and non-Egyptians. http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11044/1124806-109.stm
About the discussion of
About the discussion of Technology.
Going back to Levonson's reporting, I enjoyed this discussion :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870413220457613588235653270...
On Jan. 25, the first day of protests, the organizers from the youth wings of Egypt's opposition movements created what appeared to be a spontaneous massing of residents of the slum of Bulaq al-Dakrour, on Cairo's western edge. These demonstrators weren't, as the popular narrative has held, educated youth who learned about protests on the Internet. They were instead poor residents who filled a maze of muddy, narrow alleyways, massed in front of a neighborhood candy store and caught security forces flatfooted.
Those present included representatives from six youth movements connected to opposition political parties, groups advocating labor rights and the Muslim Brotherhood.
They chose 20 protest sites, usually connected to mosques, in densely populated working-class neighborhoods around Cairo. They hoped that such a large number of scattered rallies would strain security forces, draw larger numbers and increase the likelihood that some protesters would be able to break out and link up in Tahrir Square.
The group publicly called for protests at those sites for Jan. 25, a national holiday celebrating the country's widely reviled police force. They announced the sites of the demonstrations on the Internet and called for protests to begin at each one after prayers at about 2 p.m.
But that wasn't all.
"The 21st site, no one knew about," Mr. Kamel said.
They sent small teams to do reconnaissance on the secret 21st site. It was the Bulaq al-Dakrour neighborhood's Hayiss Sweet Shop, whose storefront and tiled sidewalk plaza—meant to accommodate outdoor tables in warmer months—would make an easy-to-find rallying point in an otherwise tangled neighborhood no different from countless others around the city.
The plotters say they knew that the demonstrations' success would depend on the participation of ordinary Egyptians in working-class districts like this one, where the Internet and Facebook aren't as widely used. They distributed fliers around the city in the days leading up to the demonstration, concentrating efforts on Bulaq al-Dakrour.
On Jan. 25, security forces predictably deployed by the thousands at each of the announced demonstration sites. Meanwhile, four field commanders chosen from the organizers' committee began dispatching activists in cells of 10. To boost secrecy, only one person per cell knew their destination.
In these small groups, the protesters advanced toward the Hayiss Sweet Shop, massing into a crowd of 300 demonstrators free from police control. The lack of security prompted neighborhood residents to stream by the hundreds out of the neighborhood's cramped alleyways, swelling the crowd into the thousands, say sweet-shop employees who watched the scene unfold.
At 1:15 p.m., they began marching toward downtown Cairo. By the time police redeployed a small contingent to block their path, the protesters' ranks had grown enough to easily overpower them.
The other marches organized at mosques around the city failed to reach Tahrir Square, their efforts foiled by riot-police cordons. The Bulaq al-Dakrour marchers, the only group to reach their objective, occupied Tahrir Square for several hours until after midnight, when police attacked demonstrators with tear gas and rubber bullets.
These people were up against the security forces, they had to keep their planning under the table. That does not sound like Facebook or Twitter.
It took 30 years of unrest and the will to get Mubarak out who was going out anyway. The question was who was going to be next.
You can get into the stategy and the tactics of what happened in Egypt, in the end it was about the level of unrest and a spark of action. The enabler was the tactic of getting the security forces out of the way to belay people's fear of speaking out.
It was the people that had the least access to Internet service that arrived in Tahrir Sqaure first.
There is no question that Technology was part of the plan. It is about judging communication based on the state-of-the-art. Over the years, the enabling technology has changed. People program the computers and wrote the books.
Sometimes it is hard to get modernized people to see the world past their cell phone LCD display, it is what we touch that is what we get comfortable with.
Technology like hair and
Technology like hair and clothing fashions keeps coming round again.
Bertillion = biometrics
Gatling gun = most of our aircraft cannon, phalanx air defense system, A-10 tank killer gun
Plate mail = IBA (improved body armor)
Believe it or not, the blimp was discussed as coming back as a low cost airborne signal repeater/retrans.
Then there's the good old long knife/short sword/machete which the world from Mexico to the Philippines to Cairo proves is indeed timeless. Don't forget the Gurkha's.
.......Getting to the point
.......Getting to the point of the discussion, "What are America's interests in Egypt?"
You are not there for your health or digging up old friends.
Democracy
Energy
Suez Canal
Middle East Stability.....
Think that sums up the first order interests.
Historically and depending on the era and the week, the priorities have been in flux.
The real question, as Americans what image do we want to project and in twenty years what do we want to be remembered for.
Left , center, or Right, we have NOT always done a good job in the past. The people in Bulaq al-Dakrour know that.
Normally, I would be concerned about what is happening in CONUS. My interest in the ME is how to get the best results for the least expense. Tourism pumps a lot more revenue in to the Egyptian economy, way more than the $1.5 Billion US graces with in foreign aid. That gives credibility to your arguement that the US foreign aid did not influence Mubarak, but at the same time per WikiLeaks Mubarak would not kick the aid out of bed for eating crackers (he liked those F16 and M1 tank sales purchased with the money). Other than giving the State Department a reason for walking in the door to drop off the check, I never really understood the need for the foreign aid (maybe meeting treaty requirements). For all US business interest in the region, that door is always open to the State Department if the right words are spoken.
Right now I got this pain up my world trade tower that I am trying to figure out where it came from, it did not come from Egypt but it did come from the ME discussion
These are some numbers to work from, they are not always accurate they are a starting point.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html
Policy by committee is not always the best way, but while we are on the social internet tool roll might as well get the most out of it.....(BTW if your an investor ,it gets twitter's IPO pumped Wall Street/ Marketers/Capitialist salute you.......No, I do not invest in social media...I can not get my mind around empty filing cabinets and leased buildings as being the sole source of book value)
One thing that is important, is timely, and can be pointed out to the Egyptians still protesting.
Mubarak did not shoot or kill his people like other countries are doing. For all the things that Mubarak did, he walked away (even it it was forced). Which brings us to the next question.......
How much control and influence does the Egyptian military really had/have? (Per you point of them not being practiced for this event...seems to me that Mubarak and his military are one and the same).
Sure. I was in Cairo
Sure. I was in Cairo (supposed to study at AUC for the semester... embassy had other plans) from two weeks before the protests began, until 2 weeks ago. the first day, when i went (knew about the protest in advance from some egyptian friends who were in the original FB group that did much of the planning), there were about 5000 ppl in the streets. the egyptian government's claim that it was only a few thousand wasn't really an exaggeration, though when they said "five thousand islamists" tehy were full of shit, it was mostly students and mostly secular (egyptian secular, which isn't like american secular, the latter being more or less equivalent to atheist-agnostic which is very unusual there).
the next day it was more but same order of magnitude. only when they blocked the internet did people more come out in greater numbers, people who normally while away their time on facebook, twitter, blogs, porn and gaming. and they managed to piss of people more consequential than college students-- no one can run a business without internet access. so they took away the normal distractions AND began to affect more than just some activist students with one stupid move. by that friday, 3 days from the first protest, there were easily a hundred thousand protestors.
Basic security questions: How
Basic security questions:
How often, if at all, are gunshots heard in the night? Very rarely, somewhat rarely, not very often, very often, always? What is the status of the Rafah checkpoint? What are the old veterans of the Gamaa doing?
Are local militias still in the process of forming? Are local checkpoints still maintained? Is Cairo, in short, degenerating into yet another "checkpoint city" in which mafias/militias/political parties maintain their own little territories? Or is the army sufficient to maintain order, 24/7, in the absence of regular police? Or is regular police activity resuming?
(You'd think, if Cairo were heading for this condition of general Levantine anarchy, our friendly local journalism industry would inform us of it. You'd think a lot of things. In practice, it would probably be disguised as "local folks keeping the peace," or some such Norman Rockwell euphemism. I don't get the impression Mr. Rockwell ever resided in Cairo - though it would certainly be interesting to see his depiction of the Lara Logan incident. "Jew! Jew!")
Oh my oh my, Exumulus, you
Oh my oh my, Exumulus, you are certainly the prettiest gadfly in all of the magical realms of Thinktankia...
I really don't know understand how funders take you seriously. Really. Do they read your product, or it is enough for them to say we have so-and-self-promoting-so on our payroll?
I wonder how spontaneous
I wonder how spontaneous these demonstrations really are. Their has to be a group working sub rosa (think community organizers) that are pulling the strings here. It would be fascinating to know who they are.
@ exum Btw, Maureen Dowd had
@ exum
Btw, Maureen Dowd had some really nice things to say about your friend Nir Rosen in the latest issue of the NYT.
Exum, This is an interesting
Exum,
This is an interesting arguement. But it is worth noting, however, that not more than 30% of Egyptians use the internet. And the percentage of Egyptians who use Twitter is probably 1-2%, with Facebook usage at maybe 20%.
Alex,
"and they managed to piss of people more consequential than college students-- no one can run a business without internet access"
Maybe in America is internet access essential to running a business but this is defintely not the case with Egypt. Probably some businesses find it essential, but thats a very small # in Egypt.
I think this is the first
I think this is the first time I am in agreement with Maureen Dowd, and not out of animus towards any person she mentions, or the premise that the Internet is rewiring our brains (no), but on the General level of coarseness in our society in particular about personal matters. This long pre-dates the Internet.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/opinion/20dowd.html?src=twrhp
"Mullen's itinerary did not
"Mullen's itinerary did not include Bahrain, a cornerstone of U.S. military power in the Gulf and the site of deadly clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces last week. The United States regards Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, as a bulwark against Shi'ite power Iran across the Gulf. "
http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFN2015162020110220
Only Washington would "so called plan" so....
This is a beauty:
This is a beauty: http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/2/21/egypt-supports-wisconsin.html
Up with the unions... (And before elf goes ballistic, did you know that 37% of the US wealth resides with 1% of your population? Pat Lang and friends discuss implications of US corruption here...: http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2011/02/can-it-happen...
Fnord. Always found it
Fnord.
Always found it interesting.
In the middle of a revolt in an Arabic country against Arabic leaders there are so many protest signs in English.
Not sure if that is a function of News looking for something that they can read or if there are more than one protest happening at once. It is all about perception and agendas.
Might be interesting for Western News to take pictures of Arabic Signage and put accurate subtitles on them. Seems to me that is the true voice.
From what I have seen, Andrew walks and talks the center (except maybe with a little left limp). I will take him at his word.
Visitor: I think very many
Visitor: I think very many saw the iconic "Game Over" sign in Tunisia, wich spread like a wildfire. English is the language of computergaming, you know, and its the counterstrike generation on the streets all over. And of course, some have been planted by smart people.( But Ive gone in Norwegian and Danish riots myself carrying english and german slogans just for the media effect... Its a smart tactic and draws foreign reporters like flies. The first rule of insurgency is to control the media narrative.)
I am really really confused with how on earth its possible to not be able to confirm the reports of aircrafts strafing Tripoli. Hello, Echelon and the sattelite network? WTF? Heat-signatures?
PS: Damn, someone should be
PS: Damn, someone should be paying me money for holding lectures on how-to-do insurgency without military violence. And how to counter them. Im broke and open for offers from civilized people. lol, wouldnt that be a career? In the Gothenburg riots we hacked the police-com network, recorded it and re-fed the previous orders in sequence to the varying units...
Jokes aside, I hope for a EU intervention in Libya if the Loon in Charge goes all Hama (Syria) on Tripoli...
Social Media and so called
Social Media and so called Internet use as being responsible for revolution is way to much hype. These tools, being tools of the public could only plausibly work with a society that has at least some form of public sphere, and more important, the active connivance or or lazy incompetance of the very government it purports to undemine.
Case in point: Egyptian domestic intelligence and security can easily monitor the primary twitter and facebook accounts which "organize" these "sponteneous" rallies. With a regime ready and willing to retain power, we would see in such a scenario as Egypt, the would be demonstrators being greeted by the various security groups meant to smother and/or destroy them. As to the apparent spontenous eruption of rallies, ask any joe blow randomnly picked off the street to try and start a rally. See how quickly he gets laughable jokes sent his way from his friends wondering why he's drinking so much lately. In other words, there is no "sponteneous" erruption of "freedom". Rather, it takes leaders with followers who are dedicated to bringing down a regime, as well as a crippled regime to start a real revolution. Your average kebab cutter and felafel flipper neither has the followers, dedication, or time to bring down a united and entrenched tyrannical regime. Only a well paid and supported revolutionary with an active and ready infrastructure who can bring in loads of followers could accomplish something like this. This in turn, leaves us to the first point in which scenario a regime interested in retaining power would meat out swift justice to said revolutionary. No, revolutions happen by patient and Clandestine development of agents, assets, themes, programs, and perception management which undermine the regime's unity whilst gathering followers against a REAL backdrop of oppression or some other widespread form of unjustice.
Twitter, Facebook, and the Internet made this happen about as much as a butterfly in the Sahara caused Katrina. Or in other words, this was a well planned break-out of revolutionary agitors or an act of God. Either way, there will be romantic novels and story galore about this time for the rest of our life-time.
Cheers,
GW
"meat out" LOL Fnord, the
"meat out"
LOL
Fnord, the top 1% pays 40% of income tax. the top (hrmphh) 50% (where I am) pays 97%. The bottom collects.
And that's not counting the multiplicity of other taxes. Fnord they know well the "rich" ain't payin any more money.
They are coming for the middle class. ME. And I'm not rich.
If I was, I could buy my Congressman to get an exemption. That's how it works here. and why our tax code is 40.000 pages long.
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