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Quote of the Day: How to Be a Better Analyst
It comes from noted defense policy specialist Al Franken*:
While the briefings provided me with a helpful update on what was happening on the ground, I knew that I would have to cross-check their assessment by talking to other military officials, diplomatic officials, outside experts and troops in the field, and I always raise skeptical questions when discussing this topic.
Any time you receive a briefing from a senior military officer or civilian official, you should walk in assuming they are trying to present their activities and accomplishments in the best positive light. As a defense policy analyst, you will sometimes develop close relationships with officers and officials and can walk in expecting a higher degree of candor. And if you yourself happen to be a former officer, you will often find yourself interacting with commissioned and noncommissioned officers with whom you had previously served. In his new book, Bing West quotes Robert Barrow as saying he never saw a crowded battlefield: you always run into the same guys again and again. If, like me, you first deployed for OEF in 2001 (back when it was Operation Infinite Justice!) and for OIF in 2003, trips to Afghanistan are all too often opportunities to catch up with guys you've known for a decade.
But what Sen. Franken says here is really good advice for any defense policy analyst or researcher examining the war in Afghanistan. You need to check everyone's homework. You need to ask critical questions about the information you are being briefed on -- especially the statistics people trot out to support their arguments.
I do not have the years of experience as an analyst like Tony Cordesman -- who seemingly always asks the toughest questions -- or the brain power of a guy like Steve Biddle. But one of the things I try to do whenever I am participating in a sponsored research trip is to schedule lots of meetings and interviews on the side and after whatever scheduled agenda I have been given. In December, for example, I went to Afghanistan and traveled around Afghanistan for 10 days at the request of Gen. Petraeus. Now, I like and am predisposed to trust the guys he has on his staff. Some of his staff are among the more intellectually honest men I know. And in the course of traveling around eastern and southern Afghanistan, I ran into a lot of commanders I knew from either the Rangers or from previous trips to Afghanistan. I like those guys, too, and want to trust what they are telling me. But after I had completed my 10 days traveling around under the auspices of ISAF, I nonetheless spent an additional three days in Kabul talking with civilian analysts from organizations like Crisis Group and the Afghan Analysts Network in addition to journalists who have been based in Afghanistan for a long time. What I heard from those analysts was often very different from what I heard from NATO military officers and diplomats. That doesn't mean the latter are lying or are setting up Potemkin Villages for me to inspect. But it does mean that the reality presented from within the "bubble" often looks different from the outside. So my recommendation to any young analysts, researchers or aides out there would be to always seek out dissenting opinions and analysis. You might end up agreeing with what you were first presented with anyway, but your own analysis will end up sharper.
*I have actually heard from people I trust that Sen. Franken, the former comedian, takes his job admirably seriously, so I should not tease.
This blog is getting very
This blog is getting very defensive while ensuring the military still know you think that they're great. Have you thought about going into politics?
All people have a bias, even
All people have a bias, even intellectually honest ones. Stick to basic epistomology: always question what you think you know. Those who are intellectually honest will acknowldge their biases and change their minds if the facts warrent it. Those who are intellectually dishonest will ignore the facts if their biases warrent it.
Franken? This must be were he
Franken?
This must be were he got it. Is he the alien with the death ray?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHxAUbCyV08
Hard to take any thing that came out of SNL seriously.
Chicago is too painfully left, ask John Belushi.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqPB8ZmtnAg
Useful advice. Skeptical
Useful advice. Skeptical questions are easier to think of than to ask in a room full of true believers (ex. George Ball) but you actually have to think of them first before they can be asked.
I don't get to traipse around Afghanistan but I do spend some time teaching students to think, so I will add:
*Check the premises - do they line up with the argument, evidence and conclusions? Most arguments are not framed correctly at the inception, or at least not as well as they might have been.
*What parts of the argument would the enemy/adversary/opposing point of view regard as valid, reliable and beyond dispute?
*What is the opposing perspective? How would they analyze the situ given the same data?
*Check sources
* What are the non-obvious consequences of "x" ? ( look outside linear pathways to lateral ones)
* What are my own beliefs of agreement/disagreement that I bring a priori that color my reaction and analysis?
Well. Given ther fact that we
Well.
Given ther fact that we now know that generals have their own spin-teams (what a surprise! Post wiki-leaks, Im so shocked!) what does that tell us about our current political enviroment?
Is anyone surprised by this? OF COURSE the generals behave like playas, since its the only game in town. Im guessing they have pimped-up humvee limmos as well, for the *real* VIPs. Damn, when you have to wine and dine friends of Blackwater(Xe) you have to put on your partyhat, hey? And when them damn pesky politicians come knocking, you sure have already hired in a few lowlevel spin-doctors, hey? who can spin right back at em? no? Its just due dilligence.
And so falls the republic.
Fnord, the loudest voice on
Fnord, the loudest voice on the microphone is not necessarily the clarion of truth.
The Republic has been falling for decades, we may yet salvage the situation with our newly engaged citizenry (Right and Left) although the challenges are daunting.
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I don't know how to prove
I don't know how to prove this, but I'd wager that Al Franken is smarter than anyone else you know. If you have the means to access his brain, you should do so. He will help.
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