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Thought for the Day: Egypt vs. Pakistan
One of the things that has come up in several conversations today has been the professionalism of the Egyptian military. It is worth noting, too, that even though the United States is getting a lot of blame from protesters on the streets of Cairo and Alexandria for our support for the Mubarak Regime through the years, the United States will likely be able to retain a great deal of influence in Egypt even in a post-Mubarak political landscape because of the way in which the U.S. military has kept up such close relations with its Egyptian counterparts. Egyptian officers have been coming to the United States for training for three decades now, so most high-ranking Egyptian officers have close friends in the U.S. military with whom they went to the War College or CGSC. (We Americans would also like to think we have played a role in the professionalization of the Egyptian officer corps, but that may be giving us too much credit.)
What a different situation we have in Pakistan, where an entire generation of the Pakistani officer corps was "lost" to the U.S. military because of the Pressler Ammendment and the way in which it halted cooperation and exchanges between our two militaries. In that way, one thing Egypt and Pakistan have in common is the way in which each, in different ways, highlight the very real benefits of mil-mil cooperation, officer exchanges, and security force assistance.
UPDATE: President Obama just spoke on Egypt. His first words were words of praise for the Egyptian Army. That is no accident.
How does Sandhurst fare?
How does Sandhurst fare?
I think that's a very astute
I think that's a very astute observation. Well said.
Senator Rand Paul: End All
Senator Rand Paul: End All Foreign Aid
http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/usnews/foreign-policy/6109-sen-r...
I must respectfully
I must respectfully disagree.
The Pakistani military has relationship to the state of Pakistan that is uniqe. The military is, and has been, historically, a source of radicalization and destabilization.
The military used proxies from the very beginning, just after Partition, in Kashmir. The use of proxies against India (in Kashmir), Afghanistan, Baluchistan, and elsewhere internally, has been a part and parcel of the Pakistani armies "colonization" of the state. The landowing elites and the military has long used proxies, and turned a blind eye to religious radicals, from the very beginning. The United States, under Eisenhower I believe, began a military relationship with Pakistan that has continued to this day with the except of a period in the 90s during the time of the Pressler amendment. Even during that time, Pakistan received IMF loans and Japan stepped with aid as well. China has contributed too.
Whether setting up bases for bombers during the early part of the Cold War, or the shoring up of the Muhadeen during the latter part, the radicalization and colonization of the civilian state has continued - during times of American involvement as well.
Why has this pernicious fiction continued? Can someone please explain the bizarre Pak mil apologia that surfaces from time to time in the American military establishment? Like the completey bizarre assertion that if Pakistan has strategic depth in Afghanistan there will be less conflict with India.
Kargil argues against this but when I bring it up in the comments section at Small Wars Journal it's crickets chirping.
Mr. Exum, can you explain the past decade to me? We've had military ties, Admiral Mullen and General Petraeus are pictured in Islamabad talking to General Kayani (and he, too, trained in the States) and yet the ISI and Pakistani military is funding groups that shoot at our troops.
We've dumped how much military aid into Pakistan in the past decade? Where is the evidence that this engagement has mitigated the worst qualities of an institution that is the greatest source of radicalization in the region? They will not roll up their proxies. Why should they? They have played a perfect game. They will keep their anti-India proxies, get aid from China and the US and have American admirals and generals cater to their every whim. How many golf fames has Admiral Mullen played? And how has it helped our young men and women in Afghanistan?
I stated, with frustration, at Democracy Arsenal and Small Wars Journal, that I thought the intellectual SA bench in DC was weak. That was wrong of me and I retracted it but you know what? Something is very, very wrong with our analysis of that part of the world.
I think we've tilted toward Pakistan for so long that the depth needed in our institutions to deal with such a difficult part of the world is lacking. There is no other reasonable explanation. Well....
Perhaps weak is not the correct word. The correct terminology might be Stockholm syndrome.
You do realize this is a topic of grim amusement amongst the Indian think tanks? They openly make fun of this sort of thing and reference American think tanks, whether they be Brookings, CNAS, or sites like Small Wars Journal. It is not pleasant to read as an American of Indian origin.
I hate to break it to some of you but General Kayani is winning the battle of wills because he knows that a game is being played and isn't afraid to play it.
(By the way, an aide-de-camp of Gen. Kayani's had a powerpoint presentation up at a DOD COIN site. "Trust Pakistan" or something like that. It was the most perfect piece of propaganda right down to the pretty girls. Well played, aide-de-camp, well played.
The United States has had a long term relationship with Pakistan that began with military aid in the 1950s to counter the Soviet threat, morphed into support for the mujahadeen, and now we work together as allies in the GWOT.
Why bring up the Pressler amendment? Isn't their data that is more current that makes a mockery of the CNAS advisor canard?
Lost the Pakistani military. Are you freaking kidding me? The Pakistani military has carefully cultivated the international aid community and still has apologists among the generation of American officers that worked with the military against the Soviets.
I cannot believe this.
It is remotely possible that
It is remotely possible that they did not know for sure that Omar and Co. were hiding in Quetta. After all, Pakistani officials have ritually denied it, and presumably they have refused permission for American intelligence-gathering in Quetta (which is the home of Pakistan’s military academy). And it’s worth remembering that American officials and journalists alike have a tendency to become astonishingly credulous upon arriving within Pakistani airspace. (Read David Ignatius’s column in today’s Washington Post for a tragicomic example.) This is especially true if said Americans are from the generation that came to Pakistan during the anti-Soviet war and developed passionate affection for the country and its military.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/187912/pakistani-realities/jonathan...
Indeed, the Pentagon has long had an indulgent attitude toward Pakistan and its military. Retired Gen. Tommy Franks, former chief of U.S. Central Command, showers the Pakistanis with praise for their cooperation in the invasion, citing Islamabad’s quick accession to “a detailed list of 74 basing and staging activities to be conducted in Pakistan.”
His empathy with Musharraf is deeply revealing: “It struck me as appropriate that we both wore uniforms,” Franks wrote. “For years, American officials and diplomatic envoys in business suits had hectored soldier-politicians such as Pervez Musharraf about human rights and representative government.”
http://www.aei.org/article/25363
http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/2010-mixed-year-for-a...
"12.Unless an effective answer is found to end this complicity, the danger of the terrorists succeeding in another act of mass casualty terrorism will always remain. Only the US is in a position to find an answer to this complicity. The first step in the exercise to find an answer is to end its romanticisation of its relationship with Pakistan. The second is to end its dependence on Pakistan for the logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan. "
Some of you Washington types better wake up. You are losing us Afghanistan.
And, hey, I enjoy Christine Fair's writings a lot but what is this nonsense on CSPAN about a civilian nuclear deal.
I simply cannot believe that some of you think that more of the same will change anything.
Pressler amendment! This stuff goes back to before the Partition and is rooted in the culture of the region.
Mr. Exum, you know I like this blog and I like your blogging despite my sharp comments. But really!
Sorry about the atrocious
Sorry about the atrocious grammar and spelling.
This is a topic that frustrates me no end. Heck, maybe I oughta write up an article for SWJ.
Really. We've had mil-mil relationships with Pakistan plenty and when has that changed the relationship of the military to the state? The military had no problem ruthlessly putting down Baluchistan in the past with the help from Iran (military aid.)
What is going on in DC? This really is part of the reason we are doing so badly in Afghanistan.
Well, I have to stop. My blood pressure cannot take it anymore.
It's a bit premature to be
It's a bit premature to be singing hosannas for Egyptian military. They won the battle, but the war to keep Egypt liberal has just begun.
Remember, Pakistani military perpetrated a terrible genocide while it was BFF with US. In fact, the military ties with US is what fed Pakistani delusions that it can take on militarily with its bigger neighbor India. Till the ties were cut under Pressler amendment the Army never thought of "peace" with India.
Still doesn't answer the question, Why a bunch of US trained elites let their juniors radicalize ?
I think US interests are well served by 10 Salman Taseers rather than 1000 Musharaffs.
The temptation to achieve good by doing evil is always strong with the military types.
And, finally, for the
And, finally, for the simple:
We've had mil-mil relationships in the past. It has not improved the behavior of the military toward its people or toward the region.
Oh, by the way, how many nukes does the Pakistani military control now?
Like I said. General Kayani has played a perfect game and it will get no traction in the States because both the Republicans and Democrats are perfectly awful on this subject.
Both parties are to blame and so it can't be turned into a political football.
This country is in the very best of hands.
Thanks V2. I forgot to
Thanks V2. I forgot to mention East Pakistan/Bangladesh.
And yes, SA scholars have a theory that the Pakistani Army became too confident because it thought it had American backing (this, too, for Kargil.)
BTW, the internet is crawling with Indians and Indian diaspora so you can't schmooze this stuff.
Take a look at the NYT comments section sometime.
: )
DC types - and the American military - better up their game on the subcontinent history.
(Just teasing, you know I like this blog :) And the American military : ) It's just that they are suffering in Afghanistan because of poor assumptions. It really breaks my heart.)
Having spent part of my
Having spent part of my professional military career in Egypt or with Egyptian officers, I seriously doubt that I or other American officers and American military schools have had much to do with the professional way the army is now handling things, which I agree is impressive. I think the Egyptian officer corps was reasonably professional well before we got involved (e.g., look at the Army's performance in the '73 war). I think rather that the Army leadership has taken a close look at how the wind is blowing and, like Captain Renault in Casablanca, has decided to blow with the wind.
RH
For a couple days the
For a couple days the Egyptian army hasn't clamp down on popular protests.
Wow, you're a cheap date.
Madhu, Pakistan wouldnt have
Madhu,
Pakistan wouldnt have acquired a single nuke if it wasn't for the "peaceful similing budha" that was bestowed upon the South Asian by the secular democratic and human rights loving peaceful democracy Onlee.
Rob Hoskins: I do think that
Rob Hoskins:
I do think that X time at Leavenworth would do little to shape an officer's fundamental belief system (although I did read an account of a former RVN soldier who was so impressed by Quantico, he had "Ask Not..." translated into Vietnamese and placed above his CP/TOC). More to the point, though, I would be very curious to hear more, because to me, the Army is to me, in many ways, "the wind." At a minimum, the situation is fluid, dynamic, and interactive - what the Army does depends on what the opposition does, what the opposition does depends on what the Army does, what the Army does depends on what it thinks the opposition will do, what the opposition depends on what it thinks the Army will do, to the nth degree of complexity. In the end, though, the Army controls (is) the sole coercive apparatus (unless one wishes to go down the road of intramilitary schisms, which is a road one *can* go down), and I think it ultimately possesses final veto power accordingly.
ADTS
This sums it
This sums it up.......
America's heart land has issued emergencies. People are dieing from a storm that has no bounds.
and.......
All Uncle "O" has to say is, "I can not dictate what the Eqyptian people do but they better do it f*cking fast, they have to have elections!" (and oh BTW, who ever you pick better suit my agenda or you are not going to get your 1.5 Billion a year like Uncle M got.......)
Maybe it is time the American people get leadership that cares about America.
Dear Leader, it is about the economy and jobs.
Al Jazeera, Al Arabiyah, and
Al Jazeera, Al Arabiyah, and other arabic news channels showing protests live
http://www.livestation.com/channels/43-al-jazeera-arabic
you're welcome.
ADTS Well, it is true that by
ADTS
Well, it is true that by the time one gets to CGSC, with few exceptions an officer is completely brainwashed and lost to independent thought. I note, for example, that Congressman Allen West apparently is a graduate of SAMS. How in the world did that dimwitted loose cannon become a "jedi knight"? So much for the attempt to replicate the German General Staff.
Agreed re: the Egyptian Army. At present time (1100 EST) the situation is even more fluid. Anti-Mubarak protesters appear to have made a strategic error by not occupying the "high ground" around the square. On the other hand, sending thugs into the square on horses and camels demonstrates that the police don't understand cavalry tactics.
So, the question is, when is the Army going to act and what is it going to do?
The best coverage (free) is Al Jazeera live on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/aljazeeraenglish.
RH
I agree with other visitor,
I agree with other visitor, it is too early to praise the Egyptian military, particularly if they become kingmakers. Moreover, Hosni wasn't running that country on his lonesome.
Finally, care to comment on our close relationship with other militaries around the world? Just because Egypt might turn out alright doesn't mean we should forget School of the Americas or the Shah's boys.
Robert: Concur that is the
Robert:
Concur that is the question - as, perhaps, always, at least in authoritarian regimes.
ADTS
Skirmishes and charges with
Skirmishes and charges with sabers, swords, whips and canes on camels & horses ......what's next?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPb_475S5HM
How much longer will it be until the military looses control of the armory's and the bullets / RPG's start flying?
These riots will continue for the next 30+ days, unless El Presidente makes the decision to immediately step down and leave the country.
The violence seems to be increasing and not decreasing...
Anyone going to make the call and pull the UN -Fire Alarm? How much longer do you think it will be until the UNMIL / Peace Keepers hit the ground in Cairo? 5 days?
Their own military will walk off their posts before they engage the local populace.
The Pressler Amendment
The Pressler Amendment clamped down on U.S. military aid to Pakistan? Really?
Hmmm... What lies between
Hmmm... What lies between Pakistan and Egypt, again? Who is their other great friend in the region?
Hint: They're in line for $60 billion in U.S. arms sales, making it a rather touchy topic for the think tank crowd.
Yes, that wasn't hard - Saudi Arabia. You won't see many "Egypt vs. Saudi Arabia" comparisons though - it's one of those 'highly sensitive' subjects.
However, Pakistan and Egypt do receive large amounts of military aid from the U.S. In contrast, the Saudis give us petrodollars in exchange for military hardware - so they must have some incredible military, the Saudis that is - what, why is everyone laughing? One has to wonder what actually happens to all that gear - does it just pile up in bunkers? Or is it mostly for repressing the domestic population and bombing the Yemeni rebels? Or is it passed along to their poor relations (Egypt, etc.)?
Military shipments to the Saudis has always been a shady business - see the British and Al-Yamameh - the famous Saudi commission, right? It's more straightforward with Egypt and Pakistan. However, the economic aid that goes to Pakistan, Afghanistan and Egypt is the curiously corrupt one - for example, the US State Department has just, or is about to, tender another $700 million Kabul Water & Electricity contract - most of which will likely be recycled to U.S. engineering firms, some scraped off to build new McMansions in Kabul (or perhaps in Dubai), and then some guy with a shovel will get a few bucks at the end of the train. Not much left after everyone else gets their beak wet, is there?
No one talks about the "professionalism" of the recipients of U.S. State Department and USAID contracts in these countries, that's for sure.
That, in a nutshell, is why Cairo is still such a run-down city despite the massive debt run up by the Egyptian dictatorship and their select 'business partners'. It's also a central reason why Mubarak is so hated, besides the brutality and torture business.
Gunboat hits a core issue
Gunboat hits a core issue here. This issue of recycled money, aid primarily to US corporations, explains, in part, why Lindsay Graham is so insistent on keeping up Egyptian foreign aid. There are families in the US who stand to suffer if we cut off the juice. Where is the sympathy for the employees of these companies in the stone-cold hearts of the Paul dynasty?
I have always had the
I have always had the impression that the American military is prone to overestimate the influence it exercises over foreign military officers by letting them study at American institutions or train with American officers.
American procedures for many things relevant to military affairs, from coordination of combined arms to logistics, are often more efficient than anything foreign militaries could develop on their own. The American military, though, does not operate politically in the way the Pakistani military has done, or in the way the Egyptian military is called upon to do now. I have no doubt Egyptian military officers like and respect many of their American counterparts, but picking the next leader of the Egyptian government or deciding whether or not to fire on demonstrators in Cairo do not seem like subjects susceptible to the influence of personal relationships.
The Egyptian military is also
The Egyptian military is also institutionally corrupt. I don't think all that training and going to the U.S. helped with that.
The Egyptian military calculus
Posted By Matthew Axelrod Monday, January 31, 2011
The Middle East Channel, Foreign Policy
However, doing so comes at personal financial risk. Senior military officers are believed to benefit handsomely from the revenues generated by military-owned corporations, private contracts with foreign companies, and post-retirement postings in the private and public sectors. General Ahmed Mohamed Shafik, former head of Civil Aviation and now Egypt's new Prime Minister, is the most prominent example. During my research in Cairo, foreign diplomats told me that Egyptian military officers regularly supplemented their incomes by receiving cash for routine military services, including Suez Canal passage. Some of those funds are believed to be held in Switzerland, where General Magdy Galal Sharawi, head of Egypt's Air Force from 2002-2008, currently serves as Ambassador. An accurate calculation of these activities is difficult to quantify, but they are systemic. We can assume that military officers are thinking about how the current crisis might affect their own livelihoods.
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/31/the_tension_in_egyptia...
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