Abu Muqawama: Post
Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS. Abu Muqawama retains the right to delete comments that include words that incite violence; are predatory, hateful, or intended to intimidate or harass; or degrade people on the basis of gender, race, class, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, or disability. In summary, don't be a jerk.
What We Are Reading (And What We Are NOT Reading) UPDATED
What I am reading today:
1. I just finished the very solid new Crisis Group report on Egypt. The first 15 pages read like a thriller, and the analysis on the Egyptian military strikes me as solid.
2. Max Rodenbeck on Tunisia and Egypt in the New York Review of Books.
3. And speaking of Rodenbeck, the Economist on Libya.
(Update II: 4. Be sure to read Michael Knights talking an incredible amount of sense about no-fly zones here.)
What am I not reading? (Okay, I actually read this.)
1. Joan Juliet Buck's breathless profile of Asma al-Assad, "A Rose in the Desert". Probably should have spiked this one, Vogue! The only thing worse than Buck's prose -- "Despite what must be a killer IQ, she sometimes uses urban shorthand" -- is seeing the skills of a fine photographer like James Nachtwey applied to taking cuddly shots of Bashar al-Assad playing with his kids. Gross. What's next, Vogue? At Home with Kim Jong-il? Dining with Grace Mugabe?
Update:
2. Gah! I have to add another one nicely illustrating that fact that the difference between the neoconservative fantasy in the efficacy of military power is really no different than the same liberal interventionist fantasy.
There are various ways in which the horror can be brought to an end. Is a no-fly zone really too complicated to negotiate? Then let NATO planes fly over Tripoli to shoot down any Libyan aircraft that make war on the Libyan population. Is the United States really prevented by its past from deploying the small number of troops that would be required to rescue Tripoli from Qaddafi’s bloody grip? Then let a multilateral expeditionary force be raised and a humanitarian intervention be launched to free Libya from its tyrant and then leave Libya to the Libyans.
We are now paying the price for having waged two very difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that far too few Americans have participated in or been made to sacrifice for. I sometimes get accused of being a hawk because I have argued that resource-intensive counterinsurgency campaigns have represented our best chance to salvage bad situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, but my experiences in both countries also taught me that a) force has its limits and b) we should all be very cautious about committing U.S. troops to combat operations in the first place. I'm horrified to read liberal interventionists continue to suggest the ease with which humanitarian crises and regional conflicts can be solved by the application of military power. To speak so glibly of such things reflects a very immature understanding of the limits of force and the difficulties and complexities of contemporary military operations. And then there is this:
I do not see a Middle East rising up in anger at the prospect of American intervention.
Hoo boy. Have I read that before?
Did not go into the full PDF
Did not go into the full PDF of the Crisis Center document ( I will do that later). What I have seen so far matches up with the reality of the news reports coming out of the ME ( I am taking the average and my own bias is weighting the average. Buyer beware ). Looked at the executive summary and came away with this....
Now, Western powers can help by providing economic assistance, avoiding attempts to micromanage the transition, select favourites or react too negatively to a more assertive, independent foreign policy. Egypt’s new rulers will be more receptive to public opinion, which is less submissive to Western demands; that is the price to pay for the democratic polity which the U.S. and Europe claim they wish to see.
Think that would be a good guidance for future ME policy. I do not think that the $2B we give Egypt has been taken off the table and I still question if that is really needed. What is needed is for the US to step forward at the right time and ask if there is anything that it can do to support Democracy. Frankly, it is too early for any support because it would be a fools errand until something firms up that looks and smells like leadership and a meaningful direction. Everything that I have seen about the coverage of the discontent in the ME looks like a general desire for better living conditions. Their economies have to support those desires or there are going to be a lot of unhappy people. The Crisis Group touches on that risk. The Muslim Brotherhood does not scare me. It is the anti-American sediment that is a problem and the US approach will determine if that sediment becomes a problem. The US relationship with Israel is a consideration. So are the feelings of the new Arab leadership towards Israel. It is not going to be easy to balance.
The above applies to Libya. Both Libya and Egypt have firm economies. So far the oil producing areas in Libya are not harmed. If those oil resources remain in tact they will provide the new government the revenue for a quick start. Gaddafi is history, it just a matter of time before he is gone. Egypt will have to stabilize to bring its tourism revenue back. Between both Libya and Egypt there is a lot of synergy. Libya has oil but needs food and fresh water. Egypt has the Nile, more agriculture capabilities, and oil refining industry. I can not think of a better match of needs to take the neighboring countries into the future. Outside investors would see that synergy also. The countries do not need US foreign aid dollars, they need a path to meet the future that the people desire. That is true hope.....not just words.
........AM did not know these were fantasies. They seem pretty real to me.....
the difference between the neoconservative fantasy in the efficacy of military power is really no different than the same liberal interventionist fantasy.
All I can say is that people have a need to be involved. It is something to do.
COIN is the right answer for Afghanistan. Getting involved in a long term commitment was the wrong thing to do. I am not sure that AQ is any weaker today than it was ten years ago. Maybe the Muslim Brotherhood can help us with AQ perceptions of the west, if we can get past the Israel question. Something tells me that is too much to ask for. Not so much the Brotherhood, but AQ and Iran are the problems. That process can take generations to resolve.
You all might want to think
You all might want to think funnelling through the EU for a while as opposed to US direct aid.
(Btw, I think the Israeli question may be bigger than a lot of US folks are comfy with in the ME. The injustice of Cast Lead as a crow above your shoulders. A lot of muslims noticed that the EU voted against the US on the latest Israel case in the UN. But hey, that makes me an anti-semite...?)
Fnord..... If US aid is
Fnord.....
If US aid is given, it should say US aid. I am not going to hide behind the EU.
The ME will take it, they always do. If they don't that is fine too.
3.18: Depends on if youre
3.18: Depends on if youre playing a deep or shallow game. This revolution will continue for at least 10 years, well outside any instant result report. I hope som deep players are in place at this point, unlike in 2003. The US doesnt need to *hide*, just delegate.
Oh sweet f*ck, how hard is
Oh sweet f*ck, how hard is it? Make the egyptian Air Force (or the fremch, if the egyptians dont wanna) do a sweep of his airfields, start delivering aid in the east with EU fronting, and lean back... We are discussing making Egypt land right much more than we are discussing Libya...
"...the difference between
"...the difference between the neoconservative fantasy in the efficacy of military power is really no different than the same liberal interventionist fantasy."
Very true Abu. And it's far from clear what to who and with what goal in mind? Let them sort it out themselves. Especially if the tribes are involved....which to answer your question Fnord makes it very fcking hard.
I don't really know much about the region, and since I have a job won't pretend to land myself a talking head gig.
However if Libya is tribal and Egypt is not and the Libyan military units are organized on tribal lines....
Mogadishu anyone?
Andrew, Excellent comments in
Andrew, Excellent comments in the last paragraph of this post, it really resonates and cannot be repeated enough.
AM, I saw the discussion and
AM,
I saw the discussion and the update on "no fly zones"......
Does Gaddafi have an AF anymore? .....There were reports that the Libyan pilots disabled the planes. By the time a no fly zone can be put together, the subject could be moot.
Anyone know how much hard cash Gaddafi keeps on hand? If he is paying people for loyalty, it might not be too long for his troops to loose faith.
Time is on the protestor's side in Libya.
Stay out of it, it's a mess.
Stay out of it, it's a mess.
Another interesting
Another interesting read.......
You can tell that Gates is retiring.......a newbee would never say these things.
If you have ever seen the future, you are seeing it now.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/02/25/gates.west.point/index.html
"In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should 'have his head examined,' as Gen. MacArthur so delicately put it," Gates said.
Gates remarks contrasted with some in America who are pushing for the U.S. military to take a more active role in other places like Libya, where huge groups of protesters are trying to overthrow the government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi.
"When it comes to predicting the nature and location of our next military engagements, since Vietnam, our record has been perfect," he said. "We have never once gotten it right, from the Mayaguez to Grenada, Panama, Somalia, the Balkans, Haiti, Kuwait, Iraq and more -- we had no idea a year before any of these missions that we would be so engaged."
"Men and women in the prime of their professional lives, who may have been responsible for the lives of scores or hundreds of troops, or millions of dollars in assistance, or engaging in reconciling warring tribes, they may find themselves in a cube all day re-formatting power point slides, preparing quarterly training briefs, or assigned an ever expanding array of clerical duties," Gates said. "The consequences of this terrify me."
Andrew.... .................
Andrew....
..................that far too few Americans have participated in or been made to sacrifice for.
No, most Americans were not on the front lines, but neither were the guys that wore green.
Logistics takes a lot of green uniforms out of the fight. You need to give defense workers their due. Lot of people are working 24/7 at the ATK Lake City Ammunition plant. One of my relatives during Vietnam died at the Joliet, Il Munitions Plant in one of many explosions. Pay was triple time, but he never enjoyed it. Joliet has been closed for a while and DOD is cleaning up the TNT in the ground water. Exposure has a lot of long term health hazards, it is the reason DOD is looking for substitutes. Crane Indiana had an incident were fuses detonated in transit and people went to the hospital. There are going to be a lot of lives changed when Afghanistan winds down not just on the military side, but also in the defense worker ranks.
Then we can get into the cost of the war. Everyone that pays taxes contributes. Most Americans do not see re-up bonuses (I know of one person that was getting six figures pay plus re-up over a five year span. That was during stop lost). Many Americans will never see benefits from the GI bill. Military personnel can stay in for twenty years and collect some really nice benefits that commercial defense workers will never see for any length of service.
Not everyone volunteers, then that is what volunteering is about.
We see it in copper prices (takes a lot of copper to make ammo). The guys that are into sporting goods take second fiddle to the war effort, and pay extra for the pleasure. Oil prices increase due to the unrest which taxes everyone at the pump.
Then there are the families and neighbors of the fallen.
It takes a nation to make war, even if they are at the mall.
Personally, I think it would be good for America to take on the concept of duty that the Swiss have. Do time in the military and take your rifle home. That gives you a daily reminder of what citizenship and responsibility is.
Hillary Clinton, Eric Holder, and Mayor Bloomberg and the rest of the Liberal crowd would have a fit to have all those (real ones, not the ones they demonize assault rifles) assault rifles in private hands ! The liberal concept of centralized government were the people bow to fearless leader can not get their mind around that much individual freedom. Heaven forbid someone getting in the way of their social agendas.
Like Hillary as a NY Senator supporting funding for a monument for the Woodstock of 1969 fame.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hnaCK0T3WU
"We have never once gotten it
"We have never once gotten it right.."
OK so retire that fucking phrase "getting it right" along with any other Yuppy-isms that drive placid men mad. Along with the pret cliche toujours Yuppy POTUS.
You know who comes the closest? Ron Paul with his quite valid suggestion that this be handled by privateers and mercs...er...PMC's bearing letters of marque and reprisal. This is exactly what those letters are for (GWOT/Long War, not Liberals Big Libya Adventure). let the Brits, Scandi's and EU stumble into that one. As I recall when we last bombed Libya they wouldn't let us pass over their airspace.
Or best option - stay the Hell away from it - and STFU - let them sort it. As we learned from 03-08 in Iraq, THEY WILL ANYWAY.
Finished reading the Crisis
Finished reading the Crisis Group report. My first impression did not change from response to the Exec Summary upstream on Feb 25 @2:36pm
First said is that the Crisis Report is not complete and is a sampling of events. It is good coverage of events in urban areas.
Andrew, you were thrilled by the first 15 pages. My attention was held by the last 15 pages, those pages are more telling of the future and the news stories yet to be read.
Answered my questions about the Egyptian Military. Since they are so much a part of land ownership and industry, they had a lot to lose by instability and still do which is a key. Connection to helping the more poorer part of Egyptian society and fact that members are conscripts explains why the people accepted the military's rule. There have been questions about the military not accepting the changes being requested by the people. The fact that the military has so much to loose by not accepting the needs of the people is going to benefit acceptance. There is no military industry without the people and workers. The question in my mind is if Egyptian industry can afford to pay the wage increases demanded by Unions. To me that is the metric to watch because that determines the satisfaction level. Can industry afford to hire more people? Think the fact that the military leader ship is opaque might work in there favor, the people will form an opinion at the individual level and they already have (ie....Uncle Military, they are us). On the surface the military is full aware of their strengths and weaknesses ( it is why they took control and want to get out of control).
The foot notes were as interesting as the content of the report. Short term this is going to an important event.
132: The head of that eight-member panel tasked with amending
the constitution in ten days, Tariq Al-Bishri, is a widely respected
former judge who began as a secular leftist and became
a leading “moderate Islamist” thinker. He is joined by a former
parliamentarian from the Muslim Brotherhood, Sobhi Saleh,
who was jailed for three days during the protests, a Christian
judge from the Supreme Constitutional Court and assistants to
the former justice minister who helped draft the amendments
they are now tasked with revising.
As far as the lack of organization of the people (ie the lack of clear leadership). You have to be impressed with the Facebook network that the Egyptian people have developed to overcome their lack of trust of the government media. That is a paradigm shift that a lot of Americans may not get. It really is not the technology, it is what the technology provides there are shades of gray there to understand. If the people can organize a diffuse movement, I have the feeling that they will be able to get their political parties right.
Progress is going to be in baby steps not leaps as the military leadership calibrate with the people. We are going to see more Facebook protests as time goes on. In the end, the diffuse organization of the movement is going to become more solid and leaders will come forward and then we will see the politics really happen. It might be interesting to look at who is supporting the tunnel network to Hamas from the Egyptian side, that involvement might show the Brotherhood's poker hand. The Brotherhood was smart enough drag its feet on the protests waiting to see the government response, they are smart enough to know what their support of Hamas means. Seeing that the protests were not about the Brotherhood, I suspect that the Crisis Group is correct that anti-American sediment will come from splinter groups, if at all. It's the middle east, it would be stupid not to expect it !
This one is going to take a long time. These people do not want to be told what to do, the West needs to "toss in a few hats" before the US gets involved.
I do not want to see the US picking up the slack on the Egyptian worker's wages through foreign aid. That will only aggravate the US deficit spending.
Uh oh, Bing West says COIN is
Uh oh, Bing West says COIN is losing us Astan...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/books/review/Filkins-t.html?_r=1
"His basic argument can be summed up like this: American soldiers and Marines are very good at counterinsurgency, and they are breaking their hearts, and losing their lives, doing it so hard. But the central premise of counterinsurgency doctrine holds that if the Americans sacrifice on behalf of the Afghan government, then the Afghan people will risk their lives for that same government in return. They will fight the Taliban, finger the informants hiding among them and transform themselves into authentic leaders who spurn death and temptation. This isn’t happening. What we have created instead, West shows, is a vast culture of dependency: Americans are fighting and dying, while the Afghans by and large stand by and do nothing to help them. "
cont'd... http://www.nytimes.
cont'd...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/books/review/Filkins-t.html?pagewanted...
"But nothing short of a miracle will give them much in return. "
OR. We could find or become our own Badr Militia ...and kick the living shit out of them till they want it to end...again I suggest mercs.
NAH. Better to lose in a critical nuclear capable theater where our enemies have chosen to begin their Caliphate (the point being it sure seems important enough to them) then to sniff lose our souls .
"In my opinion, any future
"In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should 'have his head examined,' as Gen. MacArthur so delicately put it," Gates said.
...
"When it comes to predicting the nature and location of our next military engagements, since Vietnam, our record has been perfect," he said. "We have never once gotten it right, from the Mayaguez to Grenada, Panama, Somalia, the Balkans, Haiti, Kuwait, Iraq and more -- we had no idea a year before any of these missions that we would be so engaged."
And in the space of one speech Gates nullifies his own argument. If you're correctly going to play the humility card, don't make such categorical statements.
Then again, I think none of these engagements were worthwhile as anything more than a D.C. feel good/power trip.
So then with this post Andrew
So then with this post Andrew I would assume that you would then agree that Michael O'Hanlon's recent call for the building of an American army "peace brigade" to settle problems in the Congo was just as fanciful as Judy Miller's current ideas for Libya?
gian
Wisconsin is looking like
Wisconsin is looking like '68. For the Democrats the good 'ole times are back ! I saw the future, little good came out of '68....
I think every day that this protest continues, the demonstrators are showing the US people why State/Federal Employees should not have specific contractual collective barganing agreements.
1) Because of their behavior. The protestors yelling and shaming the law makers AFTER the assembly vote was not appropriate, the people were heard for 60 hours plus the time up to the vote. The vote was OVER in the assembly and so should have been the discussion. Employees like this would be dismissed on the spot in any other business in America.
2) The demonstrators are showing the American people that they already have collective barganing as citizens, why do they need more? No US worker has that much power over their employeer, why are these people special? Why are they given MORE worker's rights than any other American Citizen?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/27/us-wisconsin-protests-idUSTRE7...
Largest crowds since Vietnam War march in Wisconsin
PS.........It would be poetic justice for ALL the Wisconsin Senators to leave and go on vacation. Who would the Demonstrators protest to ??? Themselves? Each other? Who would run government? No one would have representation.
The Democrats that left to go to Illinois represent ALL voters in their district, not just the union workers. That is the central arguement of why I think that Wisconsin is giving preference to a segment of their society. Senators are voted in by ALL people to represent them in government. The Democrats are taking away representation for everyone in their district regardless of their views and giving preference to one specific group of people. That is wrong on many levels. The represenation in the Wisconsin Senate was set by the people in their general elections, the Democrats are trying to change the balance of the general election results to FAVOR one group of people that also had representation in that SAME election.
The Senators that left the state of Wisconsin should be removed from office. These demonstrations only strengthens my resolve to vote Democrats out of office in 2012 at the State and Federal levels. I hope that every swing voter in the nation is watching the Democrats example of causing unrest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjMTNPXYu-Y&NR=1
Inciting a riot is against the law. Mob behavior is not predictable. This mob could have been avoided by the Democrats showing up and giving representation to ALL the people in their districts, not leaving the State for a FEW.
BTW........... Obama has
BTW...........
Obama has become GW Bush...........
Obama expanded an unpopular war, promoted unwanted stimulus spending, greatly increased the deficit.....
.................and now Obama is governing from his base.
If Obama keeps up with his social change agenda dividing the people, he is going to spoil the economy.
Full circle..............
My Brother's down in DC, is
My Brother's down in DC, is there something in the water that makes them think they can conquer the world - and on the cheap, and with a nice antiseptic war at that? make sure you don't hurt anyone now...
Bad Intel on Iraq? Jesus. At least they studied the problem for years before taking the plunge. Mind you the Intel was wrong, but at least it wasn't:
1) turn on the TV .
2) Gasp in righteous horror.
3) Wail that "we" (more like someone else) must "do something .
4) Turn to the one still effective branch of government - the military- with "Operation Do Something".
I been watching this cycle since 91 with the Kurds.
WAPO joins the Tea
WAPO joins the Tea Party...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR201102...
elf
I don't know about the
I don't know about the specifics of that proposal, Gian, but yes, I think I would agree that would be a bad idea. Again, though, I would want to know the specifics.
"Pundits" and others have
"Pundits" and others have been making all kinds of suggestions in the US press about how to "help" the Egyptians and others develop democracy by preparing them for elections, perhaps through NDI or IRI. BUT, they want to restrict our help to the non-Islamists! Just what will THAT DO for the image of the US among these populations whose opinions suddenly count?
Instead of fretting over the possible impact of the MB on any future elections in Egypt, it might be helpful to see an informative analysis of what the Islamist political territory may look like as political parties and their platforms take shape. Presumably, in the new Egyptian order, parties will have to have a platform other than simple patronage or empty slogans like "Islam is the answer." Seems the Brotherhood has been struggling over the idealistic/pragmatic in trying to contruct such a document in a way that would allow agreement among its different wings.
Then there is the younger wing of the MB, which is impatient about all this. Will they be tempted to go over to the newly approved Al Wasat party? What will the released members of the GI do, try for a party of their own or get reabsorbed into the MB? What will the Salafis who are not part of the MB do? Such a range of opportunities may play an important part in just how powerful the MB's own new party can be with the electorate.
Will any of the Islamists reach out beyond their comfortable middle class base to "the masses?" Could/would any of them put forward a platform to address the bread and cooking oil issues of concern to most Egyptians? The Brotherhood has been around since 1928 and is a known quantity. It is clearly an acquired taste enjoyed by a slice of the Egyptian population, but not others.
As I see it, the most pressing issues in the coming few months will be: First, how labor will be treated in terms of legal organizing through new unions and how and by whom they are represented in upcoming elections. Second, will there be enough time for new parties reflecting new ideas to get into shape and into the field before the elections?
I would also look at how the NDP and/or its membership maneuver to reestablish a power bloc to represent their interests. There are reports that thousands have resigned and are looking to burrow in elsewhere. A big number tried to switch to the Wafd. The Wafd is fully aware that if they were allowed in in those numbers they would essentially take over the party. Hussam Badrawy, who got Google's Wa'el Ghonim released resigned from the NDP and will try to establish his own part and Ghonim may/may join him. It as Ghonim who told Badrawy on the way to his home upon release that he should not remain in the unrespectable NDP.
How all this plays out in the rural areas where the NDP and the government are essentially one [and that incudes the security forces] is opaque to say the least.
Visitor to Visitor. Second,
Visitor to Visitor.
Second, will there be enough time for new parties reflecting new ideas to get into shape and into the field before the elections?
Not sure it really matters, from what I am seeing it will take many elections to finalize Egypt. That is if Eygypt does not fall back into a Mubarak type leadership and that will be up to the citizenship.
Egypt - we've so moved on.
Egypt - we've so moved on. Just heard McCain and Lieberman on CNN calling for a no fly zone over Libya, arms to the rebels, recognition of the provisional govt ....
DC must know things are worse in the USA than most of us think, hence the sudden taste for adventure? Takes our eyes off the fact that were bankrupt and have not had a budget since...when? 2009?
Anyone notice that seemingly nobody in the US Military, including SECDEF Gates want to do this?
Send Kristoff, O'Hanlon, Judith Miller and the rest of them. Have fun with the Tribes. DC never actually learns anything, does it? To avoid any adventure in the region from becoming a fiasco we needed to be in contact with the Tribal Leaders -- $$$ = contact --- years ago....
What's the Rebels Order of Battle, and how does that match up with Tribal affiliation and their social networks (the people, not the software). That question is far more important IMO than who is still with Qaddafi. Or what resolution passes the UN, EU, or DC. That's just one question.
Aaaaand in the meantime,
Aaaaand in the meantime, Libyan youth just seems to have turned into the first genuine anarchistic revolution seen since, oh, Makhno in Ukraine. True, the core of Egypt was a flat network inspired in part by the serbian revolution (Otpor) but the Libyans are actually fighting. I saw footage of youths who were storming live fire as a decoy op, taking 7-8 hits, so that others could hammer through the backs of the walls were the tanks were stored and sabotage them. There was footage of the prisoners from the G/Q/Khadaffis irregular, looked like kid soldiers from Chad and the areas, and tribal youths. The guards were looking like rastas, rude boys. Oh, andI am guessing hymns will be sung about certain soccer teams in Libya and their fans in the days to come. Thats stone fcking brave. Forza FC Tripoli, hang on.
Im humored to see everybody quietly omitting the lessons that have been learned by the generation who have just reacted to the Great War of Terror. Those of us who were in the "Seattle" movement here west, (and for that sake AQ, lol) are old guys now, the new youth is wikipedia and counterstrike, but also cultural networking all over. In a way Glenn Beck is right, there is a left wing conspiracy, and these days im damn proud of them. I hope the labour unions of Europe step up when it quiets down.
Not to mention, big kudos to
Not to mention, big kudos to FC Al Ahli Benghazi . They should get an i-pod each from the new government.
What I'm reading today: Let
What I'm reading today: Let theTaliban Take Over. Let ridiculousness abound....
PPS: Elf, the rebels order of
PPS: Elf, the rebels order of battle is propably city soccercriminals combined with the ganja-growers from the mountains, mixed up with veterans. Family based and areabased locals forming, like they did in Kairo, community-groups who send their represenatives/heavies to the core of the conflict. And those lads better perform. And then you get all the young dogs following the old dogs.
Thats a market AQ/takfiris has monopolized for far too long in the sunni-muslim world, btw, that of the only true heavies. Tahts why the Awakenings were such a revelation. Finally an oppo you can argue with. Thats what we see emerging now, a rational new entity composed of millions of individuals in their ealry years, with combat experience and a legend of bravery in defence of community. Its the shit stars get made out of, both for good and for bad.
Elf...... I guess McCain and
Elf......
I guess McCain and Lieberman have not heard about ITAR.......
Hillary and Eric Cantor could always let the US Gun dealers do straw purchases again so the materials could be smuggled out of the US to Libya.......Of course dealers would have to expand their selection of hand grenades, rocket launchers, tanks, missles, motars, and ray guns ( hear Senator Franken has experience with ray guns and defense policy, he can do training manuals) to keep up with the brisk business going across the Mexican Border.
Seeing that is it a Liberation Movement for the betterment of society, BATFE could suspend the traces on all that armament. In fact they could just waive the 4473's, multiple purchase reporting, and mental history NICS check.
Of course, it would not be too hard to have Narco Airlines support Hillary Clinton. Narco has a fleet of jets to carry ten ton loads of cargo between Mexico/S. America/Mali on scheduled flights. Airports in the third world countries are easy to pay off and there is still a lot of good Military Stuff left over in S. America from the 1980's. Radar is non-existant over the Atlantic. I am sure for a price the Zetas have connection in the Mexican Military that would be more than happy to provide "foreign aid". Hugo might even lend a hand if he knows it is for the "Libyan" cause, just don't tell him Gaddafi is not the customer ! Eucador might even be able to help out, they just made some deals with the Russians. Of course Eucador kicked the US out year or so ago have to let someone else put the deal together. Mali is a short drive to the "struggle" and the caravans know the way, they got rid of their camels and got trucks! Of course, you might have to sweep all that white stuff out caravan trucks....but then again Libya needs medical supplies too.
Sure it would not be hard to get "help" South of the Border.......green backs talk.
VISITOR TO VISITOR TO VISITOR
VISITOR TO VISITOR TO VISITOR re Second
It does matter who ends up in this particular parliament coming up because they will be charged with drafting or overseeing the process of drafting the new constitution, the Military Council having decided to tackle the elements most directly related to the electoral process. They will get the full brunt of labor demands, etc.
Well, I DID read the Vogue
Well, I DID read the Vogue article on Asma. Compared to the total gushing by journalists blinded by the radiance of Queen Rania, it was actually rather restrained. But then, Asma has not had her "Shah in Persepolis" moment yet. Rania held a huge and rather expensive gathering for her international admirers in Wadi Rum for her 40th birthday, sending planes to Europe to transport them. Naturally, this did not help her already tainted image with the Jordanians, but then they are not her "target audience." Wonder if Asma should take over Palmyra and ......
I think I read the Libyan
I think I read the Libyan Army Units were organized on Tribal lines (by Qaddafi and it may be his undoing). I'd love to find a good link. Fnord are you getting that or guessing (or projecting)? And while I am not a big GB fan (that's what happens when you become that fanatic type of dry drunk, same as Bush II) I think he's more afraid of old hippies that have gone into banking and govt (what's the difference) than kids rising up. I prefer a turn Left in that part of the world (as opposed to the real reactionaries). Mind you region wide strife and revolution will turn out quite badly for many innocents, and has the potential of a much larger conflict.
Meanwhile great read in National Interest...
http://nationalinterest.org/bookreview/battle-hymn-the-diplomats-4912
"This is the way empires think. The only curious part, really, is that the QDDR is an imperial document that reads as if its authors did not understand that they were writing an imperial document, as if a benign imperium were any less of an imperium. "
What we do now: 1 priority,
What we do now: 1 priority, get medical and material aid run through Egypt. Let the newly awakened egyptians feel the practical love. We should have medicine supplies flown in yesterday, for free distribution.
Ooops, who went and privatized & politicized & profit-marginalizedall that soft-power shit? Hmmm... And thats the truth. We should have been fielding on-site hospitals on the perimeter 2 weeks ago.
Elf: Norwegian national
Elf: Norwegian national television (NRK, lol), via AJ I would guess but not sourced, just raw footage mixed with post action interviews. He had a couple of different CoCs running in eternal opposition, as any mad dictator will have. But the forces who stand now are the mercenaries, and the crazies who have pushed it into glorious suicide basically, as far as I cans ee from newsfeeds.
And elf, hes not afraid of those old hippies in banking really (if by that you mean our whole european trust-fund.equity-backed-by-the-norwegian-oil-fund structure) so much as what we are up to ;-D
Because wether you like it or not, marx has a point: The other extreme is not sustainable either. And he , Glenn Beck, dearly wishes for the cocain-period of international capitalism to stretch out forever. Because he is a fcking druggie and hates hard work. And he does not want difficult questions, like how does the US vets meet the Libyan vets and not fight. . In these times, I rather put my trust in a weak, not-so-very-focused administration of the US than a Israel-centric strong military behemoth. If y`all excuse me speaking plain.
We should all pull back enough to be able to advance on out own choice in this process. But Israel is digging in, and thats worrying these days. Bibi may be boycotting the next meeting in the quartet.... Elf, how much do you expect us Euros to take for Israel on behalf of the alliance?
"Elf, how much do you expect
"Elf, how much do you expect us Euros to take for Israel on behalf of the alliance?"
What are you taking? Well, don't. Fnord I don't want NATO to go on, it's a dinosaur and frankly costing more trouble and money than it's worth to us. It should have phased out in the 90's.
Besides which the Pals really don't seem to want a deal, or at least their leadership doesn't. Their kids are in Damascus, Paris, London or Cairo. They give a f*ck about fighting to the last Palestinian. There will be no peace until the money runs out for the PA and HAMAS. Which it might be about to....the local regimes are now having their own problems. As is Europe and the US. No money, no war, make a deal. In particular since a nuclear Iran means Saudi needs a local nuclear friend (hint - they already greenlighted them to use their Saudi airspace to open a corridor for striking Iran's nuclear facilities). They seem to be thawing to the notion of the Zionist entity. Now that will be funny! And quite plausible, Israel's various allies over the years have included the USSR, Czechoslovakia (arms), the French (who passed the nuke tech, and Mirage fighters not the USA), the USA, the Shah, Turkey, and in many respects Egypt and Jordon.
In 1956 in Suez the Israelis worked with the Brits and the French, and it was the USA that put the kabosh on holding the canal. It's not about Justice. It's about Statecraft.
Fnord, GB just wants a free market (instead of corrupt crony Capitalism) and wasn't at all a big fan of GWB and his wars. He's not a big fan of this International cabal of bankers and politicians and the Dirty Fed (Federal Reserve).
And I think he'd like a much more Libertarian govt (very limited) and view of the Constitution, and is not a fan of foreign adventures or Liberal Interventionism. That means we come home. He's not a fan of Wilson, FDR, or for that matter Lincoln.
BTW you do know the neo-cons are Liberal Interventionists/Wilsonian types, right? They split from the Hard Left over Vietnam, and want to spread Liberal Democracy to the World - if necessary at gunpoint. It's our Destiny!!
Fine dickhead then you go fight. We have all we need in the USA and the Western Hemisphere. Let the world go hang itself. It will.
That is the problem with
That is the problem with foreign aid .........
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_LIBYA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEM...
"We've been reaching out to many different Libyans who are attempting to organize in the east and as the revolution moves westward there as well," Clinton said. "I think it's way too soon to tell how this is going to play out, but we're going to be ready and prepared to offer any kind of assistance that anyone wishes to have from the United States."
Anything ?........Hillary can you reduce the US deficit and give the US unemployed jobs?
................................signed ...... anti- Gaddafi representative.
Have Italy and China come to
Have Italy and China come to the table for Libya aid ? (Other than extracting their citizens)
They are getting oil.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_LIBYA_OIL_CHAOS?SITE=AP&SECTIO...
"The terminal (at Tobruk) is working at 100 percent," said, Rajab Sahnoun, an official with the Arabian Gulf Oil Co., which is based in the eastern city of Benghazi, told The Associated Press. He said that one tanker bound for China was being loaded at the Marsa al-Harigh (Tobruk) port, with a capacity of 1 million barrels of crude, while another Italy-bound tanker was waiting and expected to load in the coming days.
Do the math. Two ships....1million barrel capacity.....$100 dollars/barrel......with 4 million barrel capacity in the port and a 32 inch pipe bringing more.
Hillary wants to give these people ANY THING THEY WANT......? Christ the US is stupid.
How about lower Gasoline prices ? My children are hungry too.
tory burch having Newcastle
tory burch having Newcastle Trend Full 1 week, countless main superstars not to mention tory burch boots stars proved to discover designer's hottest looks and to display his or her models. What is considered your own ? tory burch boots is getting females well-known vendors,Easy layout along with primary high quality get pleasure from favourite program .
tory burch 2011 Breely Patent Thong Shoe Renewable presented greater by applique together with excellent needing gold-tone logo space middle section,cheap singular tory burch heel and in addition? has a up-to-date call you for cozy winter by using all natural synthetic leather group as well as special brand.
tory burch having Newcastle
tory burch having Newcastle Trend Full 1 week, countless main superstars not to mention tory burch boots stars proved to discover designer's hottest looks and to display his or her models. What is considered your own ? tory burch boots is getting females well-known vendors,Easy layout along with primary high quality get pleasure from favourite program .
tory burch 2011 Breely Patent Thong Shoe Renewable presented greater by applique together with excellent needing gold-tone logo space middle section,cheap singular tory burch heel and in addition? has a up-to-date call you for cozy winter by using all natural synthetic leather group as well as special brand.
Add your comment