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The Challenges of Post-Gadhafi Libya
Late last night, I linked to Mona el-Ghobashy's excellent article in which she identifies just what Egypt's people won -- or rather, won back -- through their uprising:
The genius of the Egyptian revolution is its methodical restoration of the public weal. The uprising restored the meaning of politics, if by that term is understood the making of collective claims on government. It revalued the people, revealing them in all their complexity -- neither heroes nor saints, but citizens. It repaired the republican edifice of the state, Mubarak’s hereditary succession project being the revolution’s very first casualty.
In critical ways, the Egyptian people are merely seeking a return of politics in a society that had been depoliticized by the previous three autocrats who ruled country.* The challenge for Egyptians now will be, according to el-Ghobashy, "[to construct] institutional checks against the rule of the many by the few." Egyptians, in other words, must construct those illiberal institutions (ex. A, B) which enable and protect liberal society.
This is altogether different than the challenges Libyans will face if and when Gadhafi falls. Libyans will be starting from scratch. "Libya's history of independence," Lisa Anderson notes in The State and Social Transformation in Tunisia and Libya, 1820-1980, "exhibited a consistent avoidance of bureaucratic state structures."**
Unlike French colonial administrators elsewhere, the Italian colonial rulers of Libya "made no attempt to maintain and strengthen local administration ... The administration the Italians established after their pacification of the country was designed to serve only Italian settlers ... By the time the country became independent, there was no nationwide administration or broadly based political organization." (Anderson, pp. 181-183)
The Italian governors of Libya systematically undermined the old Ottoman administration, which they viewed as a threat. Gadhafi, incredibly, managed to make things worse. Suspicious of the very idea of the Libyan state, he denied such a state was necessary and undermined any attempt to create functioning bureaucracies.
This will be the Libya that whoever replaces Moammar Gadhafi will inherit. The challenges for all international partners who seek to support a new government in Libya will also be immense. Most post-conflict states (see Hand-Drawn Diagram a) go through a stage where external aid exceeds the the government's capacity to effectively administer it, creating conditions ripe for corruption. In Libya's case (see Hand-Drawn Diagram b), you will have a similar situation with both a) a lot of government oil revenues and b) very little bureaucracy capable of redistributing resources within the society.
I predict a raft of corruption and other grievances, then, within the new regime, which could in and of themselves become drivers of conflict in post-Gadhafi Libya.***
Okay... so have a great rest of the week, everybody!
*Look, people like Mona el-Ghobashy are the real subject matter experts on Egypt out there, but some books I have gone back to over the past few months on Egypt include Abdel-Malek's Egypt: Military Society, Waterbury's The Egypt of Nasser and Sadat, Cleveland's A History of the Modern Middle East, Vatikiotis's The Egyptian Army in Politics, and Hourani's Arabic Thought in the Liberal Age 1798-1939. That's as good a reading list on mid-20th Century Egypt as my non-expert mind can come up with. (These were also the books I could find on my bookshelves.)
**I have, previously, recommended Anderson's book on Libya and Tunisia. For the purposes of understanding the absence of state structures in Libya, let me specifically recommend Chapters 9, 10, 12 and 13.
***At this point, I more than welcome any bona fide Libya experts to tell me why I am either wrong or what else needs to be considered.
On the positive side: there
On the positive side: there is the possibility of a new powerbelt of enlightened post-revolution countries in the med. Egypt-Libya-Tunis in a block adapting the Turkys style is a major player suddenly...
Nitpicky, but the Court and
Nitpicky, but the Court and Bill of Rights aren't illiberal institutions. There's an argument that they're undemocratic* in that they limit the power of the people to change their government, but being undemocratic and illiberal are different. In fact, the contrast is usual between "popular democracy" (a la Rousseau) and "liberal democracy" (a la Locke), wherein the latter has protections for rights against the popular will but the latter does not.
*There are good reasons not to think of liberal rights protections as undemocratic. See, for example, the argument here: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/i8574.pdf.
You've got it right, but the
You've got it right, but the state-building assistance required should come from Europe. It's their neighborhood, and their energy system is umbilically linked to Libya. Unfortunately, I see little sign the Europeans are getting ready for the responsibility.
www.peacefare.net
Would it be more satisfying
Would it be more satisfying to use the word "countermajoritarian" rather than "illiberal?"
AM:
I am (exceptionally) far from an expert on MENA, but recall reading Dirk Vandewalle's "Libya Since Independence." A quick glance at it might (or might not) be worth your time.
ADTS
Daniel Serwer: Agreed. But
Daniel Serwer: Agreed.
But we (Euro) are so damn confused, its a horror to watch the inability of buerocrasies to interact in any intensive-effort kind of way. Add to that, the Out Of Area doctrine has made us dependent on US force projection. You built it, you own it, to be populist. But we should get our own exp. force together, independent of you moodswingers, agreed.
The US is so political, you just have 6 month plans.
Z, Incidentally, the Libyan
Z,
Incidentally, the Libyan Arab People's Jamboree is explicitly modeled along Rousseau's conception of democracy, as are the general sentiments of many, if not most left wing intellectuals in politicians.
As for me, I fail to see why getting a 50%+1 in your favor at one point in time should allow said "majority" to do whatever it wants. There are pretty sensible arguments to the effect that any action should require quite a bit more than a simple majority.
"there is the possibility of
"there is the possibility of a new powerbelt of enlightened post-revolution countries in the med. "
If you think the MB is enlightened, yeah. Unless you are referring to the Northern Med.
And Turkey is trending Islamist.
When you have a religion that is also a legal, political, social system and the adherents have a deep relationship with God - but what God wants comes from the Imans and they rejected subjecting that faith to reason a thousand years ago - then you reject reason itself it seems.
That rules out the Enlightenment.
Atavism rules.
I expect Libya will
I expect Libya will eventually become a Muslim Brotherhood model islamic democracy with shariah in the constitution like Egypt. There will be a transitional quasi-military government based on the NTC.
Qaddafi outlawed the MB just like Mubarak did, but Libya is 97% Sunni.
I am kind of shocked that you so vigorously ignore the undercurrent of MB influence in all the Arab Spring rebellions.
The franchise is everywhere-- IAF in Jordan, JCG in Morrocco, SMB in Syria, al-Islah in Yemen.
Actually Elf, classical
Actually Elf, classical hellenic democracy, the consent of the governed, is in the Quran. The Quran is not only holy scripture, but also a guide to how to live one’s life, and a legal code. The Quran advises rulers to govern with the consent of the governed.
Islamic jurisprudence is the only law, and the lawyers ARE the clergy and vice versa. That is the base problem with COIN and evangelizing westernstyle democracy with freedom of speech and freedom of religion.
Sure freedom of speech and freedom of religion would GREAT!
But values go against the Quran and the Law in majority muslim nations.
Cannot be done.
And it is impossible for islamic law to modernize while there are 150000 missionaries with guns in Iraq and A-stan.
Two good comments by Rabi'a.
Two good comments by Rabi'a. She's exactly right.
I'll rejoin on the last point - it's impossible for Islam to modernize, period.
shukran jazakallah, Elf. but
shukran jazakallah, Elf.
but this is wrong.
"it's impossible for Islam to modernize, period."
As long as there are 150000 missionaries with guns in MENA it is impossible for islamic jurisprudents like Dr. Ghamidi to take defense against proselytization (eg, blasphemy laws) out of mutawatir.
Leave and let evolutionary theory of culture work things out.
al-Islam is a process.
America shut that process down with the Bush Doctrine and COIN.
Yes well Rabi'a when the
Yes well Rabi'a when the process destroys several NYC buildings and kills nearly 3000 civilians (minus the actual military killed in the Pentagon) the process will be halted, and hopefully reversed. That's how you have 150K soldiers (perhaps at best missionaries of Democracy) in MENA.
However if you can state where that process was going or will go otherwise, other than World Domination (not gonna happen) by whatever means, I'll listen.
However if you can state
However if you can state where that process was going or will go otherwise, other than World Domination (not gonna happen) by whatever means, I'll listen.
All islamic terrorism is defense against proselytization response. That is what 911 was. OBL junk punched America in the economic nads. He said it was to get us out of Saud, and to stop our endless meddling.
And i wouldn't be so sure about that world domination thingy.
In 20 years 1 out of 4 humans will be muslim.
Heres a good comment from a commenter at my islam blog.
You see Elf....the Arab Spring and social media have greatly reduced any chance of COIN being successful.
I think the situ is going to degrade rapidly.
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And it can be paraphrased?
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