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Monday Morning Questions
1. Do drones make it too easy for U.S. policy makers to go to war?
2. Why do some of the strongest U.S. supporters of Israel pair their animosity toward Iran with a soft spot for Saudi Arabia? I understand the enemy-of-my-enemy thing, but what of the way in which oil money has underwritten the spread of radical, violent strands of Islamic fundamentalism?
3a. What should the Obama Administration do about Syria? How should current U.S. policy change in light of the brutal crack-down we're seeing?
3b. How is Syria different than Libya?
3b. Syria has a strong
3b.
Syria has a strong regional ally that seems keen on contesting US hegemony in the region. That ally is at daggers drawn with a/the major ally of the US in the area.
Syria has a concrete beef with a/the major US ally in the region.
Syria has a lot of influence on the regional tinderbox that is Lebanon.
At least so far, Syria isn't using its air force or artillery on the demonstrators.
1) No, but sharks with
1) No, but sharks with frickin laser beams on their foreheads would make it WAY too easy for the US to go to war.
2) I don't know, but the violent Islamist groups in the Levant funded by Saudi Arabia have been way less effective than those funded by Iran. And the Saudi elites can be pragmatic about their relationship with Israel, to a point.
3a) Dance off
3b) One an Arab state led by a dictator, the other is an Arab state led by a dictator with dental training.
Theo wins the morning.
Theo wins the morning.
I'd like to protest that
I'd like to protest that decision. I believe Assad junior is an opthalmologist of some sort ;=)
"Do drones make it too easy
"Do drones make it too easy for U.S. policy makers to go to war?"
And, is that a good thing or a bad thing?
No, or at least there's not
No, or at least there's not enough evidence yet.
Syria has no oil, Libya does
Syria has no oil, Libya does (ding ding ding)
Also, I dont think anyone has a 'soft spot' for the Wahhabis, but a soft spot for pragmatism and building workable temporary alliances. The twin snakes of Shia and Sunni extremism must both be cut down.
I'll just say this quote
I'll just say this quote stuck out:
At a Washington conference of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) last week, the issue of drones was also widely discussed.
Lt. Col. Bruce Black, program manager for the Air Force Predator and Reaper aircraft, noted that some 180 people are involved in each drone mission. The result, he said, is that “there is more ethical oversight involved with unmanned air vehicles than with manned aircraft.”
Kind of reminded me of reading Dave Grossman's theory that crew served weapons distribute the blame and make it easier to kill.
I will say this, having an all volunteer military where much of the cost is divorced from the rest of the country has more to do with this notion of going to war is easier than having some uberweapon.
The recent addition of drone
The recent addition of drone strikes to the ongoing Libyan operation has made me think of two things. First is the book my Peter W. Singer, Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century, and the second something my friends and I were discussing after our International security course. The first, Wired for War, is an important book that will give context and understanding of the shift that’s occurring and the challenges it means (and not just with Libya). The second, my classmates and I were talking about RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs) and that the operation could be an example of the real RMA, using robotics to do America's dirty work. It’s not hard to combine this with Singer’s earlier book, Corporate Warriors, and see private contractors manning drones . I am sure politicians would love this scenario as it gives them deniability and escape goats but could be the first step on a dangerous road.
@Eamonn "At least so far,
@Eamonn
"At least so far, Syria isn't using its air force or artillery on the demonstrators."
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/20114255333825461.html
1) They shouldn't, if you are
1) They shouldn't, if you are agnostic about war as a policy tool. If the only thing preventing a military action that, all other things being equal, is the best choice to meet your foreign policy goals is domestic political problems, drones make it easier to go to war, and going to war was "too hard" in the past.
The problem, it seems to me, isn't the drones, but rather the fact that the US doesn't really have a clear grand strategy to determine when and where military action makes sense, and that there isn't enough research regarding that because researchers aren't agnostic about war as a policy tool, although that is getting better and wasn't a problem in the past either. (If there is a problem with drones it is that they are a symptom of our over investment in the military vs. other foreign policy tools. When you have a bunch of screws, a hammer is better than nothing but a screw driver would be better.
2) A lot of people don't really care about terrorism or the Middle East outside of Israel?
Also dealing with the Saudi's means dealing with oil, which is ideologically uncomfortable for many.
3) a. We have to end our warming up to Syria, but that's about it. New sanctions will be implaced bt they are basically a waste. We go back to hating the Assad's, and they us, and there is nothing we can do. Unless he is weakened, anyway.
b. Assad has much better control of his military and has a powerful patron in Iran. Also Syria is much bigger. A intervening in Libya is, from a population stand point, like trying to intervene in a civil war in LA. In Syria it would be more like invading all of Southern California.
"Too easy" requires further
"Too easy" requires further definition and elaboration. But I'll just note that there has been little-to-no adherence to the Joint War Powers Resolution, and/or consultation with Congress, regarding our involvement in Libya. Would that be different, or more pressing, if our primary involvement included uniformed troops on the ground, or - more - manned flights overhead? I suspect so.
"Do drones make it too easy
"Do drones make it too easy for U.S. policy makers to go to war?
Um, my memory might be a little shaky, but didn't the war (as far as NATO is concerned) start with bombs dropped by conventional fighter jets ???
During the Egyptian
During the Egyptian revolution a lot of people made a big deal out of the fact that the Egyptian army was conscripted and reluctant to fire on their own people. I know that wasn't the only reason they didn't but as far as I know Syria's army is largely conscripted too and they seem to have no qualms about gunning down other Syrians at all. Is it a sectarian thing? Are the army units involved largely composed of religious groups hostile to the Sunnis, like the Allawites and the Druze? I know in Libya and Saddam's Iraq you had the conscript line units versus the professional regime units, is that the case in Syria as well?
I'd also like to throw my support behind Theo's idea of a dance off, not only to solve the Syria issue, but numerous other foreign policy issues in the ME and throughout the world. I also think rap freestyle battles might be equally effective.
1. No, because the drones are
1. No, because the drones are unmanned. You'd have to at least expand the payload bay.
2. Because they're reactionary liberal-haters and so are the Saudis. Libs are willing to take a little collateral damage from left-wing terrorists gone wrong. What's the problem with terrorism? Libs love Syria - Syria loves terrorists. QED.
3a. It should collapse into its own asshole and cease to exist, like the Soviet Union. Isn't this obvious? If so, what is everyone waiting for?
3b. Madonna-whore complex. Libya made the mistake of sleeping with the USG. So did Egypt. The Assad regime remains a little virgin princess which the Juan Coles of the world can lust after in their hearts. Of course she's getting ass-raped every night by her huge, brutal Iranian husband, but so what? It's an entirely different orifice.
1. No, we started Libya with
1. No, we started Libya with regular bombings. Massive air superiority in general makes it very easy to go to war (against countries with antiquated or non-existent air defense systems); drones are just a parcel of that. Ground-to-air suppression (SEAD) skills are more important and non-drone (for now).
2. Likely it is one of those "they may be SOBs, but they are our SOBs" mindsets. And the supporters of Israel see saudi money promoting radicalism in general, while Iran gives Hezbollah and Hamas missiles to use directly/specifically against Israel. Sort of a tactical myopia.
3a. To a certain extent, like Libya before the UN resolution: condemn from the sidelines, try to get sanctions in the UN. Push neighboring countries to be kind to refugees.
3b. In Lybia, half the country, geographically, was in revolt, and entry into the eastern half could be prevented by denying the use of one, coastal road. It only took a day to totally stop the military advance once there was a UN resolution. Also, numerous other European countries were chomping at the bit to take action, and other arab countries were opposed to the Lybian regime.
In contrast, no one is excited about going into Syria, massive protests do not equal a total revolt with large swaths of territory in the hands of a rebel army, there is no rebel army to defend and no easy geographically barrier to the movement of counter-revolutionary forces, and there is no UN resolution.
The only commonality is protests against the regime; it looks much more like the very early days of Lybia, not before the air campaign began.
Stop asking these serious and
Stop asking these serious and difficult questions. We have a royal wedding to pay attention to.
2. I've consistently called
2. I've consistently called for the nuclear annihilation of both, and supported Israel. I make a decision on running by June, or the next outrage on US soil. Vote Elf, it's over in 50 minutes.
3a. What we should have done all along. Shut up, and do nothing.
3b. Oil. And Mencius gave the other reason. Kissinger put it another way, it may be dangerous to be our enemy, but it's lethal to be our friend. The lesson will be lost on no one. I think DeGaulle was the first to figure it out.
Hat tip to Theo. Well played
Hat tip to Theo.
Well played sir, a dance off indeed.
1. There were a couple of questions I have about that article and some of the FUD that it contains. For starters, I was onboard with a DARPA deal a few years ago to investigate the concept of swarming UCAVs. Part of the system was coming up with some kind of weak AI to allow UCAV the ability to independently target within ROE if intended targets weren't where they were supposed to be. Interesting that we're going to have the requisite Terminator paranoia rear it's ugly head, again.
Next, that it requires "180 people" to run a Pred/Reaper mission. Nice footprint you goons have over there. Maybe I'm taking this out of context and that number includes your maintenance personnel and all of the analysts along the way (not to mention their reflective belts), but that seems like one hell of a party for one plane (and a lot of reflective belts). Not that I'm saying I could do/have done better with four people (not wearing reflective belts) and bandwidth to support piping details to interested groups (who may or may not wear reflective belts).
Well okay, I am saying that.
I seriously wish I could pump just a fraction of the lulz delivered by them (reflective belt wearing) fellers at Creech onto this forum. But I can't. Something about traffic (no matter how maddeningly idiotic) being like classified or something.
Finally, "receive a mission brief and are put into a “warrior ethos” before ever stepping into a ground control station. “You are executing a mission to save lives,” he said," and then later "you can hear his voice and you can hear the bullets whistling over his head. You feel that pressure.” ORLY. I didn't realize you had a bunch of core with a capital hard Super Bad Larrys up in that mofo. Do they get reflective belts when they wear those brown flight suits or do tacticool rules apply?
I be trolling, me sorry.
Seriously though? Stress is being one of six Americans on an island of American sand in an Afghan sea, some hundreds of miles north of Kandahar, and the voices on the other end of the radio aren't 'his colleague' but your friends. Only the penalty isn't driving back to your now undervalued house in Las Vegas, hugging your wife and kids, having a drink, and flipping on the television while you try to forget.
You get to see your failure. You live through it. Up close and personal when your team drive back through the gate. That's stress.
So do drones make it easier to go to war? After apologizing over a grave to a man that can't hear me, I say no.
The primary difference
The primary difference between Libya and Syria is that Libya happened first. There is no way that the powers intervening in Libya are going to take on two interventions at once. So Syria probably gets a pass.
Of course, there's also the detail that Qaddafi had managed to so alienate all of his neighbors that the Arab League could pass a resolution calling for outside support for the rebels. Which gave some political cover to those doing the intervention. Assad hasn't quite managed that. Yet. Plus the Arab League, having (perhaps to their astonishment) been taken up on their first call for intervention, are unlikely to repeat the gesture.
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Yes, I do think it makes it
Yes, I do think it makes it easier to go to war with drones, however you don't have to start out that way as Positroll pointed out. download free movies | health fitness tips
Excellent. For a second
Excellent.
For a second there, I thought he said it was a Robert Kaplan piece. I was wondering why it didn't include some simplistic Stratfor-esque reference to How This is All Geography's Fault.
Naruto 552
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