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People of Syria: "Kilna Bierluigi Collina!"
From the Los Angeles Times, a yellow card for Bashar al-Asad:
Meanwhile, you can rock out in your office to this jammin' Syrian protest song. "Allah! Syria! Freedom! (And that's it!)" Also, I have been watching al-Jazeera Arabic, which has been running some shocking video of Syrian security forces punching and kicking bound detainees. Yeah, that will go over well in the rest of the Arabic-speaking world...
you think this is somehow
you think this is somehow points for your side Andrew?
The SMB (Syrian Muslim Brotherhood), along with semi-anonymous "facebook youth", started the revolution with a call to arms on May 15.
I do not think this is a case of "the enemy of my enemy".
The Brothers are not America's friends.
You need get your head out of
You need get your head out of your ass and seriously address the new political shape of MENA.
The MB will be a power.
Qaddafi is going down, eventually. He cannot stay. The MB is right next door in Egypt, and they have a sweet 30 stockpile of fab Murrikan mecha that we bribed Mubarak with.
al-Qaradawi put a death fatwa on him.
Syria will get a new government....but liek the Taliban, they will not be Americas friends. And Syria shares a border with Israel. Just like Egypt.
;)
Rabi'a, Funny how the tired
Rabi'a,
Funny how the tired old MB argument has been used by all the dictators in the Middle East to justify their lengthy, oppressive and corrupt rule. "Me or chaos!" "Me or the Islamists!" Please dude. Come up with a new argument. Or at least write a more lengthy article on it and justify your paranoia, since there seems to be a lot of evidence proving your argument wrong. Stop justifying these mafiosos. Give people some hope and perhaps the Islamists won't be as powerful as you think.
Do you even know what ikhwan
Do you even know what ikhwan means you dumbass crusader?
It means "the Brotherhood".
Rabia, I can see that you're
Rabia,
I can see that you're not as smart as you think you are...
"a lot of evidence proving
"a lot of evidence proving your argument wrong."
bullshytt.
there is a lot evidence proving my argument right.
77.2 % of the Egyptian people just voted for Art 2
Article 2 reads as follows: Islam is the Religion of the State, Arabic is its official language, and the principal source of legislation is Islamic Jurisprudence (Sharia).
Rabia, I can see that you're
well, im hella lot smarter than Andrew.
I chose a dissertation topic that actually gives me a chance of defending my dissertation.
;)
Visitor Funny how the tired
Visitor
yup, zactly. All the American propped dictators used that argument. Do you know what it accomplished? Extorted "anti-terror" megabucks from those stupid Americans while making the MB the only game in town.
America made the islamists into the good guys.
Crazy, huh?
Heh. Surely, an outbreak of
Heh. Surely, an outbreak of popular government in Syria, with its numerous ethnic and religious minorities, grudges going back thousands of years, terrain perfect for launching insurrections, large amounts of weapons and jihad-loving neighbors on all sides will be a good thing. I mean, the outcome will definitely be better than the current dictatorship. What are the odds that it will lead to endemic civil war, massacres, poverty, chaos and tons of refugees? Right? Uh, right? Wait, what's this paint ring around my mouth and nose?
BTW, Andrew, I've come up with a new method for predicting the behavior of the US and other popular Western governments-I call it "bureaucrat-centric analysis." Google says I'm the first one to do so. Basically, I determine the national course of action which gives any specific set of bureaucrats and pundits involved in a given issue the biggest chance of continued employment and preferably promotion (an expanded staff and budget) in the next 2-10 years, and then watch them come up with sincere and heartfelt arguments as to why this course of action is the most moral, economically sensible and in line with US interests. Then I balance the interests of the other bureaucrats and pundits involved in the issue. If the total set of bureaucrats involved in an issue has diverging interests (for instance, State would like Libya be a big festering boil requiring diplomacy and gentle airpower nudges, while DoD would prefer to stay out of it, mostly,) then I weigh the relative cachet of these different sets of bureaucrats and assign the probability of outcomes accordingly. So far, my initial bureaucrat-centric prediction for Libya has come true-I said it would be like the ineffectual air war against Serbia, followed by a stalemate, followed by a breakaway of the East being recognized via a deal, followed by a Kosovo-like MNF occupation of Cyrenaica.
Of course, others have reasoned along these lines (Moldbug, I'm looking at you!) but I'm the first to come up with a catchy name!
Bashar Bay Bee! is actually
Bashar Bay Bee! is actually getting a fan club of sorts from lazy intelligentsia worried about the wrong thing.
B, I think you've
B, I think you've rediscovered Conquest's Third Law. (Note that that sneaky neocon, Driscoll, changed "reactionary" to "conservative." Actually, "reactionary" is regularly used as a slur at National Review - another clue to their Trotskyist roots.)
Someone else once stated the same rule in a less flip way, but I can't find it so I'll paraphrase. In any unsupervised or sovereign bureaucracy, there arise two factions: one which serves the official mission of the agency, and another which serves the bureaucratic interests of the agency. The latter tends to prevail.
Typically this victory is accomplished by policies whose effect is opposite to their intent. Rather than solving problems, these policies exacerbate the problems, creating more work for the bureaucracy, which then expands to fill the work.
I don't have the exact figure, but I think John Hay's State Department employed about 100 clerks. You do the math. I wonder what Hay and Henry Adams would think of the world their successors created? Dear God, we can only wonder.
And I don't think it's that anyone at State wants Libya to be a big festering boil. What they want is to control Libya, but not to be responsible for it. Both these desires are felt with extraordinary bureaucratic intensity. The outcome is the same, but the mental process must be understood. (It's very illuminating to read, if your clearance permits it, the Tripoli cables.)
What madness is this? Rabi'a
What madness is this? Rabi'a al-Adiwyya and Great Satan's Girlfriend on the same comment thread? I'm surprised the world hasn't imploded....but which one is the doppelgänger?
also, rabi'a: there's no
also, rabi'a: there's no doubt islam is one of the fastest (if not THE fastest) growing religions in the world. interestingly, the muslim men of my age that i have dealt with seem to enjoy youtube, beer and porn as much as i do. bacon, not so much....but i don't think anyone enjoys bacon as much as i do. granted, this is anecdotal evidence, but it's derived from my experiences in sadr city, where one would imagine that a more conservative religious outlook would prevail.
will islam spread faster than the most infectious aspects of western culture? methinks not...just take a look at how fat the world is getting thanks to our diet. i think we'll all be happier when we come to grips with the fact that people (all people) are animals. even if we profess to be muslim/christian/scientologist/whatever in public, we're still going to do whatever it takes to get our dopamine fix in private.
Is B GSG? I'm not. I think
Is B GSG? I'm not.
I think the Rabbit should travel to a new Islamic caliphate, preferably with its HQ in good old Constantinople, and join the Caliph's hareem. President Trump will exchange ceremonial emails with the Caliph (Osama, ideally) twice yearly. Otherwise, not even Internet packets will be exchanged between Christendom and Dar ul-Islam. Or at least, between the new Birther America, and Dar ul-Islam. Of course, if they prefer to send bullets we'll send bombs, and so on.
Also, there is a new travel policy adapted from San Francisco nightlife. This is the "No In & Out" policy. You can travel between Birther America and Dar ul-Islam, but only once and in one direction. Ie: if the Rabbit wants to go, fine - but she has to stay. She can have her wish, but she has to accept the consequences. This policy is intended to eliminate American Arabists and Palestinophiles forever and for all time, without having to send anyone at all to the Birthers' new secure temporary-housing colonies. Rather, the Rabbit, or whoever, is the Caliph's girl and good riddance. None of this Perdicaris nonsense in the new Birther America!
Sir, I assure you I'm no
Sir, I assure you I'm no one's girlfriend. I'm quite homophobic, though possibly that will change through enough powerpoint propaganda.
I disagree with Conquest's third law, at least if we assume a bureaucratic organization's enemies are interested in its demise instead of continued existence. I mean, certainly nothing State does suggests to me that it's suicidal. Plus, bureaucrat-centric analysis just has that RING to it. You know, like paradigm, COIN, BLUF, "Facebook Revolution" and all the other Newspeak we run through both sides of our faces.
Wasn't it Pascal who said that the heart has its desires which reason knows nothing of? Can you imagine the subconscious hatred for his Cromag Third-World clients which must well up in the heart of your typical State Department/NYT/NGO Choate-Andover-Tufts douche after a decade or two of dealing with them? I mean, twenty-plus years of education aimed at convincing him that the Lugambians are just like him but for some accidents of fate and education, a coveted job whose very existence depends on an unquestioning acceptance of that ideology, and then an assignment to Lugamba. Being surrounded by Lugambian officials and politicians. Getting hit up for bribes and favors. Going home through the disgusting Lugambian streets. Safety briefings-"hide yo kids, hide yo wife-they rapin' uhhrbody here" (nice one about the cat, btw-I dug it.) For, like, years. I mean, if that's not enough to make you hate a place and wish war and disease upon it, what does it take? You don't think Duranty hated the Russians and despised them?
That's the thing about
That's the thing about Conquest's third law: it only makes sense if you read it in the way I did, meaning "enemies" as "opposed to the official mission." I wish I could remember who I'm paraphrasing.
As for Lugambial, me own dad was an FSO, although from a different generation, not a true believer and not from Choate. He did spend some time in the Dark Continent, though. In fact his ex-girlfriend is one of our key officers in a very gnarly place in Africa right now.
My impression is that the way most of them, regardless of ideological commitment, deal with this is to develop a secret cult of cynicism, aka "realism." Then, when you're dealing with the equally cynical Lugambian brass, who know the game is dirty (indeed it is impossible to have a career in the Lugambian army if you're clean, as it would endanger the others), you can smile, knock back another shot of JW and keep pumping your contacts for information that goes into cables no one reads. You're not dirty yourself, of course, but as a realist you know it's a dirty world, etc, and someone's got to do this dirty job. Besides, you're paid extra to live in a shithole and have nothing to spend it on. Also, in every country the elite are reasonably cultured and know how to live a nice life, and it's the elite you're there to befriend.
The trouble with "realism" is that it's always a case of Conquest's first law. The FSO cannot avoid being reactionary regarding the reality of life in Lugambia. In fact a friend of my wife's, as pure a San Francisco progressive chick as there ever was, went to Guatemala City on a 9-month State fellowship to teach journalism. She came back thinking Guatemala was sorely in need of another dictator, which of course it is. But did this affect the rest of her worldview? Of course not.
So the tender flower of "realism" always sprouts in the vast charnel-house of "idealism" that is US foreign policy in the 20C. It is never a true and complete repentance of bureaucratized political romanticism. It is always a local, temporary and coerced compromise with reality. In the big picture and the long run, it changes nothing. But, perhaps unfortunately, it allows the true believer to retain both his global worldview and his (local and relative) sanity.
Also, don't forget that as an FSO no matter how junior, you are automatically a VIP in every country you're posted to, unless it's England or France or something. Perhaps even if it's England or France or something. After all, since the US Embassy is actually the locus of sovereignty in so many of these countries, power conveys status.
Moldbug- I think Pournelle's
Moldbug-
I think Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy ( http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html ) is the source you are paraphrasing.
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