Center for a New American Security

A few days ago, I was accused by a German conspiracy theorist of having assassinated former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. On first glance, this is kind of funny. Yesterday, for example, the Twittersphere was joking about all the other people I might have killed: Stringer Bell, Bill, Tupac, Iranian nuclear scientists, the sheriff and the deputy, Amy Winehouse, a man in Reno (just to watch him die), etc. One friend, employing the same "logic" as this conspiracy theorist, noted that I was also "suspiciously near" the scene of dozens of bombings in Iraq in 2003 and that 338 people have been murdered since I moved back to Washington, DC in 2009. Also, this same friend noted, I have never been able to prove that I did not meet with Mohammed Atta in Prague.

Quite quickly, though, what's kind of amusing on the first glance is not at all funny. If you are a journalist or researcher working on the Arabic-speaking world, what do you think is the worst possible thing someone could do to endanger your work and your life? If you guessed "holding a press conference in Beirut to announce you are working for the Mossad or CIA," you're either correct or close to the mark. As several other scholars of the region noted in emails to me yesterday, my research in Lebanon and the broader region will almost certainly be complicated by this crank and his new pet conspiracy theory.

But at least I have a nice job in Washington, D.C. that allows me to do a lot of my work from a comfortable air-conditioned office. Spare a thought for my ex-girlfriend, who I mentioned in a New York Times op-ed a few days after the assassination and who now works as a credentialed photojournaist in the Arabic-speaking world. With no evidence whatsoever, this German "journalist" has now quite literally endangered both her life and her livelihood. 

A few notes about the claims themselves, which were made on the pro-March 8th Coalition website tayyar.org as well as on Hizballah's television station, al-Manar. Unsurprisingly and aside from the basic fact that I did not assassinate the former Lebanese prime minister*, the claims are riddled with factual errors. I am not even Jewish, for example.** On all four sides of my family, I am the latest in a long line of Scottish Presbyterians who have all been in the United States since well before the American Revolution. Prior to this century, the only times we felt the need to leave the United States was to invade and defeat Germany on a few occassions, the first defeat of which was explained away by some German extremists by blaming it on a Jewish conspiracy against Germany, and the second of which ... well, you get the point. At some point, amidst the rubble and the mass murder of millions of Jews, Roma, and other minorities, most Germans and other Europeans decided blaming the ills of the world on Jewish conspiracies was not in anyone's best interest. Most Germans, it seems.***

Second, if anyone wanted to actually see my military record, they could do the responsible journalistic thing and submit a freedom of information request. There is nothing classified in my military record, and you can see for yourself exactly what I did, where I deployed, what medals I earned, etc.

Third, and along the same lines, I am a semi-public figure. I have a Wikipedia page, a publicly available biography (all of the facts of which you can check), and a publications record a mile and a half long. Do I behave, in any way, shape, or form, like a spy?

This entire experience is deeply frustrating and troubling. I am not aware of any legal recourse I have available, though the claims being made by this guy endanger both work as well as the life and work of my ex-girlfriend. (Who is a great and wonderful person despite having dated me and was never my fiancee. I am happily married, as many of you know, to a woman who will surely be cannonized at some point.) I am hardly the first American to do research on the Middle East to be accused of being a spy, but this is upsetting nonetheless.

Last fall, I was actually contacted by this conspiracy theorist. I responded in good faith to his first email but ignored his others as they grew weirder. If any of you out there, by the way, send me requests for research assistance and such out of the blue and wonder why I have never responded, you have cranks like this guy to thank. I am attaching the full text of this guy's emails to me below and, when I get to work tomorrow, will scan and publish a .pdf of these emails as well.

*I cannot believe I actually had to write this sentence. Do I also need to let you guys know I did not assassinate Imad Mughniyeh?

**Although rest assured, if I were blessed enough to be one of God's chosen people, I would be very proud of that.

***Today, Germany boasts an impressive Holocaust education program, and even in the madness of the early 20th Century, many brave Germans spoke out for the Jews and against anti-Semitism. I am not trying to tar an entire noble people with the same brush here, but I find this especially disturbing a German is peddling this nonsense when surely he should know the power of these kinds of conspiracy theories.

Hariri assassination; your articles_4

juergen_ck [juergen_ck@t-online.de]

Sent:    Friday, November 12, 2010 4:17 AM

To:      

Andrew Exum

Dear Mr. Exum,

I want to mention you and XXX in my next book. Your presence at the Hariri crime scene is remarkable and raises questions. I like to repeat my question: Have you been asked by UN investigators and how did you respond?

Regards

JCK

Von: juergen_ck [mailto:juergen_ck@t-online.de]

Gesendet: Freitag, 5. November 2010 11:46

An: 'Andrew Exum'

Betreff: Hariri assassination; your articles_3

Dear Mr. Exum,

I have one last question: Have you been questioned by the United Nations International Independent Investigation Commission or the Special Tribunal for Lebanon regarding your observations prior and after the Hariri assassination, the kind of disaster tourism you executed and your motive to visit the crime scene and so on?

Regards

JCK

Von: juergen_ck [mailto:juergen_ck@t-online.de]

Gesendet: Dienstag, 2. November 2010 11:51

An: 'Andrew Exum'

Betreff: Hariri assassination; your articles_2

Dear Andrew,

thank you very much for your quick reply.

Yes, I know Fisk and his article with his unforgettable impressions. He’s living a few hundreds meter from the blast scene and therefore he was one of the first there. Unlike you he describes the tragic situation very vividly. This is not meant to be an accusation. Apparently you have all seen through the eyes of a military. I would indeed do so, I'm a criminologist.              

But let me make some other remarks.

You wrote: “As a former soldier, I couldn't help but marvel for a moment at the audacity of the attack and the meticulous planning involved. The Corniche at this point takes a sharp turn, forcing cars to slow. The men who placed the bomb surely knew this. In addition, the building across from the St. George was also under construction and uninhabited, so any collateral damage to civilians would have been minimal. Further down the Corniche, the road is wider and would have been choked with pedestrians. Whoever planned this attack had been calculating as well as ruthless.”

I do not share your opinion on any kind of intended prevention of collateral damage to civilians: At the end 21 people died and about 220 persons were wounded!

You wrote: “The crater it left in the middle of the Corniche was at least three meters deep and 20 wide, astonishing given all the asphalt and rock it had to blast through.”

Indeed, Beirut was built on a rocky promontory. And the crime scene behind the Rocky-coast-Line between Ain al Mrayseh and Zaytuneh is located in a cove with rocky underground. Now let’s go back to bomb. OK, we are not experts but as former officers we should know a little bit about explosions. The bomb produces primarily heat. The bomb itself and the material in their environment evaporate. It creates abruptly a (relatively) small area with very hot and high pressured gas. All around is just a vacuum, so the gas expands, and that is the pressure wave. But a more complex problem is the behavior of the pressure wave of any explosion under reflection. An explosion near a flat hard surface (rocky basement of the coast) leads to a strengthening of the pressure wave. The relationship between the reflected shock wave and the incident shock wave is called the reflection coefficient. And don’t forget the reflection from the buildings around the crime scene. The explosion was calculated to do maximal damage. That’s my opinion.

Remember Fisk; he wrote: “The blast had sent another car, perhaps one of Hariri's, soaring through the air into the third floor of the empty hotel's annex, where it was still burning fiercely.”

It was a powerful explosion that shot a car from a weight of about one ton to a height of 6 to 7 meters. Did you see the car? I can find neither any photo nor another source.

Best and thanks

JCK

Von: Andrew Exum [mailto:]

Gesendet: Montag, 1. November 2010 16:20

An: juergen_cain_kuelbel@t-online.de

Betreff: FW: To Mr. Andrew Exum: Hariri assassination; your article

Juergen,

Answers below. IN CAPS.

Best,

Ex

From:

Sent: Monday, November 01, 2010 10:53 AM

To: Andrew Exum

Cc: CNAS Information

Subject: FW: To Mr. Andrew Exum: Hariri assassination; your articles

From: jürgen_cain_kuelbel [mailto:juergen_cain_kuelbel@t-online.de]

Sent: Monday, November 01, 2010 8:31 AM

To: ; CNAS Information

Subject: To Mr. Andrew Exum: Hariri assassination; your articles

Dear Mr. Andrew Exum,

my name is Jürgen Cain Külbel, I’m a German author and former criminalist. I’m just writing my second book about the Hariri assassination and the assassination series in Lebanon from 2005 to 2008.

I studied your interesting articles “Blood, Smoke and Tears in Beirut”, (NYT, 16 February 2005) and “Hope amid tragedy” (saloon.com) over the weekend. You are something like an “eye witness” of the devastating bombing and I’d greatly appreciate if you could kindly answer my few questions.

You wrote: “Firefighters and police officers worked to keep back the crowd, then soldiers slowly began to pour in.”

Questions:

How did you manage to escape police or soldiers and climb up the hotel St. George although a large fire was raging inside the shell of the hotel?

THERE WAS NO LARGE FIRE. I MUST HAVE ARRIVED 10 MINUTES AFTER THE INITIAL BLAST AND DID NOT SEE ANY SECONDARY FIRES INSIDE THE HOTEL. THE ONLY SECONDARY EXPLOSIONS THAT I SAW CAME FROM A FEW CARS WHOSE GAS TANKS HEATED UP AND EXPLODED.

Was the crime scene not secured at that time (you arrived around ten minutes after the blast)?

HA. IT WAS “SECURED” IN THE LEBANESE SENSE OF THE WORD. WHICH MEANS MY GIRLFRIEND AND I IDENTIFIED OURSELVES AS WORKING MEMBERS OF THE PRESS AND, WITHOUT ANY ACCREDIDATION, SLIPPED THROUGH THE OUTER CORDON ESTABLISHED BY THE POLICE AND ARMY. AT SOME POINT, A LITTLE LATER, THEY REALLY SEALED OFF THE BLAST SITE. BUT INITIALLY, IT WAS REMARKABLY OPEN. I SAW OTHER REPORTERS THERE, INCLUDING ROBERT FISK. AND THERE WERE ALSO WHAT LOOKED LIKE ORDINARY LEBANESE. ANYWAY, IN THE INITIAL CONFUSION, IT WAS QUITE EASY TO GET CLOSE. AND EVENTUALLY TARA AND I JUST CLIMBED UP INTO THE ST. GEORGE.

You wrote: “… and I climbed up the ruins of the St. George and looked down at the crater. It was easily 25 yards wide and at least three deep. To create a hole this size, you would have to fill a large truck or van with high explosives, first re-enforcing the shock absorbers to accommodate all the extra weight.

Questions:

This is a very smart first analysis because the experts argued at length about theories of aboveground or underground explosions. How do you get the smart idea of a large truck or van with re-enforced shock absorbers? Did you have some experiences? Did you ever see in Iraq or Afghanistan such kinds of terror trucks or explosions?

I SERVED TWICE IN AFGHANISTAN AND ONCE IN IRAQ. AT THE TIME OF THE BLAST, I HAD ONLY BEEN RETURNED FROM IRAQ FOR A YEAR AND FROM AFGHANISTAN FOR JUST SIX OR SEVEN MONTHS. SO YES, I HAD A LITTLE BIT OF EXPERIENCE WITH EXPLOSIVES AND WITH CAR BOMBS. I ALSO HAD EXPERIENCE WITH CRATERING CHARGES. THE U.S. ARMY WOULD USE THOSE IF YOU WANTED TO CREATE A HASTY ROADBLOCK. IT TAKES A LOT OF EXPLOSIVES! SO I KNEW, FIRST, THAT A LOT OF EXPLOSIVES HAD TO HAVE EBEN EMPLOYED TO HAVE CREATED A CRATER THAT LARGE IN ONE BLAST. I KNEW, SECOND, THAT ANY TRUCK OR CAR YOU LOADED UP WITH THAT MUCH EXPLOSIVES WOULD HAVE HAD TO HAVE BEEN REINFORCED IN TERMS OF THE CAR’S SHOCKS.

Thank you very much.

Best regards

Jürgen Cain Külbel

Berlin