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My hat is off to my colleagues Nora Bensahel and Travis Sharp as well as my Ranger Buddy Dave Barno for their latest report. I reviewed earlier drafts of this report and was impressed by its rigor and potential utility within the public debate. The final draft is really, really solid and incorporates a lot of the debates we had both internal to CNAS and also within the broader defense policy community. So read the report, and register for the event on Friday.
We at CNAS, by the way, are going to have a big size-of-the-defense-budget hole to fill when Travis leaves us for <ahem> Princeton </ahem> next year.
This should give you a
This should give you a multimedia experience.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GAKOLOnfV4
How did America get to the Moon?
You know, Obama said that going back to the Moon was just do'in the same thing. Should go to an asteroid or someth'in. Think he must have been talk'in to the CBC. The same problem is pointed out in this CNAS report. Once you get rid of something, it is hard to get back. You have to go back to the Moon just to learn how to do it again. It is true. Nasa spent a lot of time putting together a data base of the knowledge it lost after Apollo, it was an effort at artificial intelligence. Space workers in the 1970's gave up their equity in their homes on the space coast to unload them. Lot of people retired in the 80's during the shuttle program. There was a lot of brain drain in the rocket business. The last remaining Saturn V drawings were given to the Boy Scouts for a paper drive, NASA only has a rocket laying on its side by the VAB as a guide. If you are a Chinese tourist, you can get snap-shots of it for your photo album (wink wink). It is amazing that all that was done on drafting tables, CAD was only a gleam in people's eyes. Those were the glory days. The difference is you had to know what you were doing, on a computer it is all point and click. Today the only person that really knows what is going on is the person that writes the CAD software and those guys are in India. You laugh, it is true. A lot gets lost with these computer hero's that walk out of college these days. People are about applications, not writing software. Then that meets schedules, managers smile, and lots of bucks are made. Hate to think what would happen if the CAD software suddenly broke, people would be lost. Good thing we do not have to worry about EMP strikes anymore.
America is doing it again, it was fun to watch the Shuttle launch. It was a damn cold day when I watched the Challenger fall to pieces. Friend of mine did the close out on the shuttle that day. It was colder when the Shuttle Launch Team walked off the job for the last time. Life changes. Lot of those jobs were contracted out to Space Alliance don't think there where any juicy retirements in those jobs. People are giving up their equity in their homes on the space coast these days mostly cause of the mortgage bubble. Lot of space workers are relocating if they can find work outside of Florida. I don't think Obama will get Florida in 2012.
So much for government work, it was never meant to last forever.
This CNAS report misses the target by a long shot.
It is based on two assumptions 1) the way we do global engagement and 2) the structure of our military. There is no ground up rethink and that were this report falls short. Suppose it gets a lot harder to write this report the way it should be written. So one took the easy way out. Why would we assume that the way we have been doing global engagement is the same way we will do it in the future? Just rearrange the equipment and keep going? NOT. Why does American need four military branches? In the old days it made for good bar fights. Think it might be time for a rethink in the bureaucracy. Think economy of scale !
There is the untouched, the unsaid, we will have some discussion at the end statement. PERSONNEL. Those darn military benefits. Ever wonder why so many prisons got built, but were never staffed? There is one of those prisons in Illinois, the one that Durbin and Obama were trying to use for Gitmo detainees. That prison is brand spack'in new and not be'in used. Amaz'in. It is because the human cost is the major cost center in a program. It is why US Corporations off-shore and it is why those Space Workers are not getting juicy benefits from NASA's subcontractor Space Alliance. It is why Republicans run from social programs, they are a train wreck to budgets. You have to speak to the military retirement system if you are going to have anything meaningful to say about military budgets. Sorry, it is HR 101. Just cause the bean counters put the retirement package in a different budget heading does not mean taxpayers do not have to pay for it. Take the stars and stripe out of you eyes, it is just a job. It is one of those things that military recruiters say to get you to sign. It is another career like launching rockets for the American Space Program.
Had to laugh a little. When I grew up, we had the Space Program to encourage kids to learn Science and Math. Now we have Sesame Street to do that for us, it keeps us competitive with the rest of the world. Guess that is education in America, Obama cancelled the Constellation Moon program.
Nothing is meant to last. If you cut Social Security, Military Benefits need to be cut too.
If you really want to do something meaningful !
Think about this.
Think about what industry America needs for defense. Keep that in America rather than shipping it to F'ing CHINA. Then work with industry leaders (hopefully they are interested in Nationalism rather than just in war profits) and find out what the spin-up time is to retool industry for what ever the DOD think might happen. That spin-up time determines your equipment inventory. It always seemed stupid to me that we off-shored our heavy industry. That heavy industry is why American did so well in ww2. A nation that does not manufacture its own goods at home is not a very strong nation. Not strong economically. Not strong as a military. General Dynamics makes American M1 tanks in Canada, the tanks are only re-equipped in Lima, Ohio!! At least it is on the same continent, that work needs to say in our boundaries. Personally, I would cut G. Immelt out of the loop, that F;Ker will sell his mother. Sorry for the bad vibes, GE off-shored half of its USA work force. Not too patriotic huh., but the profits were fantastically good. It is hard to sell war bonds to people that do not have money to spend (get China to pay for the war we have with them or their allies ! That is a hoot.)
American needs to get its mind and priorities right. Without industry, you are not an independent country.
With an industrial base in America, you need to think about raw materials, those can be stocked. Once you have that, then you can think about how you want to organize the US military. The need for aircraft carriers is not that important these days. With tanker/refuel aircraft and supersonic fly times for fighter planes, you can position aircraft pretty fast if you have allies around the world. On going training could substitute for a fixed presence in foreign countries. Nuclear submarines are good for hiding and mobility, you can launch a missile any where and hit the mark pretty darn well this days. The reality is those days are past. Our global engagement in the future should not be with equipment ran by US citizens, it should be done by our allies. Crap, we spent all that foreign aid money and off-shored all those US jobs, we should get something return. Places like India and China have grown up, take off the training wheels. Let them protect the US Corporations in their countries. If the US corporations can dodge US taxes in offshore accounts, if they do not hire US citizens to contribute to FICA payments, then by God the foreign countries can protect their butts. Fair is fair, US corporations cut the US citizen out of their spread sheets, US taxpayers should return the favor. It is just business, no offense : ). Mr. Immelt, you can not just have the war profits alone. Maybe CEO's will find their patriotism again beyond a f16 contract, all defense contractors support the troops it is in their marketing.
Then there are the human costs at the Pentagon. Obama did ObamaCare but forgot the most important thing, the raw cost of health care was not touched. This year alone saw a double digit increase, way past any wage increase. The talking heads hurt themselves pointing out that it was not ObamaCare that increased premiums, it was the raw cost of health care cost. Lots of damage control and education going on. Sorry to say this guys, it was the lack of addressing the root cost of health care that caused the Republicans to go kicking, screaming , and vomiting all the way to the voting booth in 2010. If the raw cost of health care is not addressed, the cost of ObamaCare insurance premiums are going to launch like a rocket. The US Supreme Court is going to decide if those premiums can be stuffed up America's xss by the IRS. Republicans did not have an alternative. Selling insurance across state lines is a bunch of garbage, that is exactly what I told my Republican Representative. That is the reality and that is going to be wrapped up the Pentagon's military retirement budget as well as Medicare and Medicaid. It is real problem that is not going to be wished or talked away. It means that people are going to have to rethink what they expect out of their Doctors. Americans have to be responsible and health care is not an entitlement ! There has to be leadership out of Washington to address the issue of raw health care cost.
There needs to be a rethink about military contracts. It it is "olive green" it is expensive. The price structure of anything that is built for the military has gone completely bonkers. If you look at commercial "same as" products compared to those purpose built for the military, the price for the military item is more than double. I have seen the same thing happen with insurance claims, people think cause it is an insurance claim they have hit the lottery. Jesus, we all have to pay for it. The days are way gone that IBM charge a marginal percent for war work. It goes back to getting our minds right. Defense work should not be hitting the lottery. DOD needs to stop letting contractors get away with anything that goes. They need to learn to negotiate contracts.
I can go on, and I will have 52 pages like your report.
You get the idea, it is time to rethink about how we do business.
The Democrats can not TELL the market what it has to do.
The Republican can not LET the market do what it wants.
Americans have to get their mind and priorities right. America is not a profit center, it is where we live.
That is a sermon, not a report. btw... if you have not figure it our by now, I am the Republican base.
I agree with Rocket Man. If
I agree with Rocket Man.
If you want to have a meaningful discussion about military spending, you have to put all the military budgets on the table and do a comprehensive plan.
The CNAS report is half vast.
Are we going to include the
Are we going to include the military spending that is being off loaded on to the CIA budget? New CIA drone bases. Proxy war in Somalia. Actions in Yemen. Mother-may-I in Libya. Did I mention South America?
That is one thing about Washington, they have lots of places to hide spending.
You have to be careful how you ask the question.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/world/africa/11somalia.html?_r=1&ref=a...
DEA too ? Maybe we should include the State Department spending too. Dynacorp is expensive.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ369CAlASo
Remember the story about Congressman Wiener? After he took the picture of himself in the Congressional Gym the news media tried to determine the cost of the weight lifting equipment. The costs were buried so deep into various budgets, there was no way someone from the outside could decode the cost structure.
That is the way Washington works cost reductions. Shift and hide.
Spooks R Us makes an very
Spooks R Us makes an very interesting point. The ability of the Intel/defence community to slip money to one another has already been highlighted by far more intelligence commentators than I. Given the David Petraeus to CIA, Leon Panetta to Defence switch its only going to make this murkier.
I have always advocated Tom Barnett's Many and the Cheap vs. the Few and the Expensive concept of defence procurement, but it looks like you might not be able to afford the cheap in the upcoming years.
I must say I'm surprised that people are talking massive defence cuts, I can't see too many politicians, American, Australian, British or what have you cutting defence massively just in case the next big thing actually does eventuate. I guess necessity is the mother of actual harsh cut backs.
Hot and cold report. Some
Hot and cold report. Some good depth and analysis, and some rather surprising shortcuts. For instance, is it prudent to recommend the same end-state for missile defense in ALL four scenarios? And even that is simply a parrot of HASC's FY12 Markup (canx Precision Tracking Surveillance System, which would compromise ability for remote-launch interceptors over the horizon). So forgive me if I'm not as jubilant as you for this particular study.
Let's imagine a scenario
Let's imagine a scenario where you had the option to pay for fire and emergency services, but you didn't have to if you didn't want to.
If you didn't participate and have "F&E" insurance and your house caught fire, the fire trucks and ambulances would show up and a) not do anything to put out the fire and b) think you "not wise" for failing to buy insurance.
They would protect other people's property who had insurance, but you would be plum out of luck.
Remember, with "F&E" you can't pay for insurance after your house has burned down! I would guess a similar logic holds true for national defense.
Thanks for the link love! I
Thanks for the link love! I apprize the opportunity to be on your blog as well as represent remarked!
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