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Hizballah and the United States: Stuck in the Middle With You
What does Hizballah have in common with the United States aside from a love of paintball?
Hizballah, like the United States, would be caught up in a conflict between Iran and Israel. And like the United States, it has a lot of reasons for wanting to avoid a conflict right now.
That's the subject of my column in this week's World Politics Review, which you can read here.
So how crazy would Isreal
So how crazy would Isreal have to be to bomb Iran ... Then Hezbollah (after they find a reason to attack Isreal that will satisfy their base), and then go after the Assads in Syria?
I was thinking that Isreal likes how weak Assad has become. Minus him being the king of Jordan, he's not so bad anymore, no?
It's odd that an expert on
It's odd that an expert on Hezballah would write such a thinly argued piece about the prospects of an HA attack on Israel at the behest of Tehran.
Forgot to even mention the internal Lebanese political realities that present a huge obstacle to the supposed HA Iranian cats paw's freedom to strike, did you? Why ignore the obvious elephant unless you're fairly confident that your audience won't notice or care about the missing primary factor of influence? The backhanded compliment praising la resistance' "sophistication" in contrast to the bumbling of their supposed Masters in Tehran further weakens the case that your protagonists would be so rash as to do their inferiors' bidding. Such reasoning ignores the existential threat that proxy military aggression would pose to their political survival among the Cedars of Lebanon.
More likely is the attempt to pre-empt the possibility of missile barrages from the North; mooting the question alltogether.
As per plan, man.
You know it raises the stakes
You know it raises the stakes a little to put those paintballs in the freezer. These are fun too. http://simunition.com/upload/documents/doc_4.pdf
There is a lot happening politically in Lebanon (http://www.scribd.com/doc/13460784/The-Main-Lebanese-Political-Parties).
Couple things stand out in your discussion Exum.
1) The US getting stuck in conflicts.
2) The concern about Hizballah attacking Israel.
Number One:
The US reason to go after AQ was justified, turning it into a DoD/State Department funded USAID operation was just F*ing stupid.
This administration is turning the US fighting military into the UN complete with the reputation. If there is a US political storm on the horizon the agenda gets pushed into contractors or the CIA on a buried budget.
Exum you put to much weight on playing paintball (ie soft touch). In a no holes barred military conflict where the USA people are fighting for USA land, the US will end the discussion quickly.
Number Two:
Hizballah and Hamas (and a few others) have been attacking Israel for years. Tell me something that I should really care about. I think Israel has been doing this for 60 years they know what they are doing (if you don't know I will explain it to you........they are playing the rain man like a fiddle.).
What is next Exum? You are going to surprise me by saying the ME is not stable and there are influences in Lebanon other than native interests!!!!
BTW....Libya as a success? Take a lesson from your mentor's lesson plan, Libyan stability is regional. There is a lot of US spending spinning up in North Africa as a result. The Mali changes got a lot of interest from the homeland security and State Department crowd. Another pity party to rescue. It is pretty bad when you have to bait people on youtube and twitter to feed your agenda (Kony...national interest, not. ).
All I wanted was the pot hole in front of my US town's city hall fixed. You know the pot hole, the one that knocks your car's alignment out when you pay your property taxes each year. Called the public works department to get the pot hole filled and the road crew was busy paving 100 miles of road in Afghanistan, I got put on the waiting list. Doesn't matter cannot afford the car anymore, gas is too expensive. That is a strange solution. I keep getting these thank you letters in boxes from the stuff with "Made in China" printed on the label.
Why?
Abu M I tend to concur with
Abu M
I tend to concur with your assessment, in that I think most accounts I've seen exaggerate the extent to which Israel "lost" the 2006 Lebanon War; the Nasrallah quote that, had he known what would transpire, he never would have ordered the initial kidnapping, is remarkably telling. That said, my semi-frequent perusal of Ynetnews, Jpost, and Haaretz, as well as some other sources (e.g., Tel Aviv University INSS) leaves me to think you underestimate the sense of vulnerability Israelis feel, and the lack of confidence on a number of levels with respect to Home Front Command and related entities and their preparedness for a (the?) next war.
Best
ADTS
If the Hezbollah officer in
If the Hezbollah officer in the article claims they had less than 1,000 fighters going against the IDF, and they (and I think Nasrallah in a speech) admitted to 250 KIA it shows that they really took a much tougher beating than they let on casualty-wise.
its hezbullah not hizballah,
its hezbullah not hizballah, you stupid fucking asshole.
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