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Capability ≠ Intent
Reuters reports that the U.S. intelligence community is worked up about the potential that Hizballah could attack U.S. civilians in the United States in the event of an attack on Iran:
There is a big difference between capability and intent, obviously. It would not be in the interests of Hizballah to attack U.S. civilian targets on the U.S. mainland. That would be incredibly dumb, actually, and would carry with it potentially catastrophic consequences for Hizballah's constituency. I write more about Hizballah's calculations regarding an attack on Iran here in case anyone is interested, and I think my analysis from last week remains sound.
That having been said, let's get real for a moment: there is an argument to be made, of course, that Iran might underestimate what a U.S. response to an attack would be. After all, Iran played a big role in killing at least 1,000 U.S. servicemen in Iraq, continues to support the insurgency in Afghanistan, and has carried out failed attacks on Israeli targets elsewhere. The response by both the Obama Administration and the Bush Administration before that has been to ... well, not do a hell of a lot.
That's just one interpretation of Iranian thinking, though. Another interpretation would be to look at stuff like Stuxnet, the assassination of scientists, and crippling sanctions as an aggressive U.S.-led campaign against the people of Iran.
And that's the trouble with perception and misperception in international politics. It's tough to know how the other guy sees the same things you do. Someone should write a book about this
The IC (and many policy
The IC (and many policy analysts) have also failed to grasp the concept that intent does not equal capability when it comes to terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction. Just really sad how many talking heads equate a mad mullah talking about WMD as "we now expect a WMD attack by terrorists within the next 2-3 years" when there is zero capability identified with same groups.
I would obviously go to all
I would obviously go to all the trouble, expense and risk of establishing a capability to attack you if I had no intention of doing so under any circumstances.
/sarc
Abu M First, thanks for
Abu M
First, thanks for referencing my blog comment on your Twitter yesterday. Sorry I don't engage via that medium, at least at present. (As an aside, I've actually found Twitter to be distracting and not of much use, due primarily to information overload, whereas I perceive Facebook to be more and more an essential akin to an email address of phone number. What to make of social media? and way to go, Mr. Zuckerberg!) And yes, Jeff Emanuel, Kylie Minogue FTW indeed. Actually, FWIW, despite what I wrote, I am a fan of Natalie Imbruglia as well, and indeed on at least one occasion inappropriately contributed to a rendition of "Torn" in a public place in a US ally at the time undergoing a somewhat turbulent transition period. I apologize to my country for any way I interfered with public diplomacy and information operations, and will seek out professional care.
Second, your post reminded me of an article I saw in Haaretz within the last week or so (I think), in which Ehud Barak and/or and the Israel Ministry put expected casualties in the event of a new confrontation at around 300 dead and no more than 500. First, I was struck by what seemed to me fairly callous and blithe disregard of a large number of dead. (Quite some time ago, on the good old days of blogspot, I think you linked to a Benjamin Schwarz review of a book on the Blitz, and I recall the grim preparation and planning undertaken in anticipation of it.*) Second, I would like to know more about the planning assumptions used to generate the estimates: are civilians in shelters 23 hours of the day? Is there a callup of reservists? Does Rambam operate out of its parking lot? I'm not sure how sustainable any of those are, and certainly none would seem like much fun, to say the least. Third, the issue of second-order effects is interesting. What happens to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange? What happens to the value of the shekel? Would tourists in Israel require military noncombatant evacuation akin to what happened in Lebanon in 2006 (Frequent Wind would appear a bit of a stretch, although I would certainly pay to download a picture of an Air American Huey on the roof of the Israel Station Chief's abode), and how would the economy handle a decline in the migrant workforce? Would businesses cease operations in Israel and/or reconsider plans to do business there? (No matter how intrepid its employees, I don't really see Apple, say, letting its executives to visit a Haifa undergoing constant rocket attack, nor quite frankly would I imagine many Apple executives wanting to take such a trip.)
*Bodies to be dumped in the Thames, etc.
Third, I have some complicated opinions regarding the Stratfor Wikileaks. That said, one of the emails I saw indicated DHS/DOJ has started thinking about protecting American Jewish facilities in the event of a confrontation. Even were a police officer posted at every one of those facilities - and I doubt that very much would be the case - presumably such static attempts at "domestic force protection" (to coin a new, and certainly unwieldy, term?) would be fairly ineffectual. How would the American Jewish community react, both politically (change support to a different party?) and in terms of protecting itself (vigilantism as well as, presumably, paying for additional security in terms of both people - off-duty police? - and technology)?
Best
ADTS
Exum, you haven't heard the
Exum, you haven't heard the words of your own US political party for the past twenty odd years.
Capability does equal intent. Unless you are not inhaling.
Listen to Dick Durbin, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and the Clintons have been saying all their careers!
BTW...if you haven't figured it out think 1968 GCA and EPA.
What a hoot, lol
While I do concur that
While I do concur that Capability does NOT = Intent the challenge is that intent can change on a dime and there is always doubt as to if we know what combination of events can cause that intent to change.
Visitor on April 6, 2012 -
Visitor on April 6, 2012 - 8:31am
Nope, I think that Visitor on April 5, 2012 - 4:46pm had more perceptions and agendas in mind rather than shades of intent.
The risk is if Hizballah does something then the US political party of the day will not get the brass ring. Worst thing that you can do to a standing politician is to make them look bad. What is more convincing than locking bad guys up in jail for the cure to show people how much you care. Heck, HLS frisk 7 year old kids and strip search Americans daily with body scanners in airports you think that HLS will stop there? Hizballah has to get in line if they want protection from big government in the US !
Personally, I really do not understand the timing of the US beating up on Iran. Iran has been the black sheep for years and now all of a sudden they are job one (just in time for elections and when Afghanistan, Obama's war, is starting to sour). It is not like Iran started working on nuclear yesterday. Iran has been doing nuclear ever since the US & Siemens helped the Shah build the first reactors. Only nation that oil sanctions have been effective against has been the US, America is shooting itself on the foot. Only thing that oil sanctions serve is Obama's energy policy, they herd prices. Oil and sanctions have NEVER and will NEVER changed religious belief in the ME.
Maybe it is time for the US to let the ME work out their own differences.
BTW..... No one is a mind reader. Considering that intent can change on a dime and there is always doubt as to if we know what combination of events can cause that intent to change. I hope that the State Department does its job
( http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20120323-napolitano-statement-syria-tp... ). The US definitely has not absorbed the 12 million odd people from Latin countries. We are still having problems with the refugees from Vietnam and the ones from Iraq and Afghanistan present a challenge (like $36M in welfare that passed Congress in the past year).
There is only one way to guarantee the status of intent and that is to not let people with the inclination in the US. That is just plain simple, if you do not let them in the US they cannot do harm. NULL set. Think it is time the people that we let in the US go back to their home countries to begin a real solution, they are the only ones that can truly change the balance of power.
If your are still bent on open immigration to the US, the $100 million State just gave to Tunisia would have paid for a lot of background checks and mind readers for VISA approvals (GSA can give you references for some good readers).
Capability and Intent is what
Capability and Intent is what the Iran thing is all about.
Really the discussion is about trust and want, right now the world is a little bankrupt.
Exum, don't blame the
Exum, don't blame the Republicans for redefining intent.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/07/us/politics/obama-embraces-national-se...
The more aggressive posture is a break from the past, when Democrats on the national stage battled against the perception that the party was not as committed as Republicans were to a strong defense and an aggressive response to terrorism. Mr. Obama himself, during the 2008 campaign, drew criticism from both Republicans and his primary opponent, Hillary Rodham Clinton, for what they called his naïveté, particularly over his willingness to talk, without preconditions, to American foes like Iran.
So what is next for the Democrats? Supporting concealed carry laws???
You cannot be tuff on "crime" in Iran while not supporting "stand your ground" domestically. That would be like talking out of both sides of your mouth at once. Rough being the super sheriff. Obama gets the star for sure.
lol, I am rolling, lol
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There has been some game
There has been some game theoretic analysis of these types of perception issues in strategic analysis using hypergames.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&sqi...
Hezbollah would be stupid not
Hezbollah would be stupid not to attack targets in the US, assuming that they are allied with Iran. The Pentagon is planning a full scale air war on Iran, and expect their targets to do nothing in response? Is the Pentagon prepared to launch an invasion of Lebanon to defeat Hezbollah?
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