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Egypt & Israel
I apologize for the light blogging. I returned from a few days at Ft. Leavenworth -- education, not incarceration -- this morning and am in the middle of the final edits on a big report Bruce Jentleson, Melissa Dalton, Dana Stuster and I have been writing for CNAS. I preview one of our recommendations in this column for World Politics Review:
If Americans do not appreciate the Israeli-Egyptian peace now, though, they certainly will when it is no longer there. And for the first time in 30 years, that is a real possibility.
The United States needs to get serious about heading off confrontation between the new Egyptian authorities and our friends in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Read the rest here.
***
I have missed several events here in Washington featuring Toby Dodge this week, but on the way back from Ft. Leavenworth, I read a review essay on Iraq by the great Sami Zubaida in the International Journal of Middle East Studies that features Dodge's book. I recommend the former, at least, for any Iraq nerds out there. (I have never, actually, read the latter but know I should. And I love the fact that academic journals get around to reviewing books nine years after they were published.)
You did research on same sex
You did research on same sex union's, while at Fort Leavenworth, to help support the President's decision on gay marriage?
I'm sure if the PM's of Israel and Egypt have the same difficulties ours has ...like making decisions to having large scale official Press Corps Meetings to get the word out that's he's Pro-Gay Marriage...
Come on.....seriously...?
"The United States needs to
"The United States needs to get serious about heading off confrontation between the new Egyptian authorities and our friends in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem."
Why do we need to get serious about this Dr. Exum? Can't they handle it themselves? Why should we be helping either if these countries resolve any confrontation? I say let them fight it out, if they want. Glad you're not representing our country in any official capacity. I mean really....why don't you learn to mind you own business.... and not put our country in the middle of something, that we don't need to get involved in. OK?
Abu M 1) Before I forget, my
Abu M
1) Before I forget, my understanding is there are some good blogs documenting what is occurring in Syria, including with satellite imagery. Unfortunately, though, Google is not helping me find them very well. Any suggestion from or your readers would be appreciated.
2) Good article.
3) I think you ignore the extent to which Egypt is "up for grabs." I don't think a free market democracy is likely, but a very wide range of outcomes seems unusually possible. (I happen to suspect the military will consolidate its grasp on power, but acknowledge this is far from certain, and no next-to-nothing about what is happening.)
4) I think you ignore the issue of geography, terrain and strategic depth. Insurgents notwithstanding, the Sinai is demilitarized - there are no regular forces there, so far as I know, and it is monitored by peacekeepers. Any Egyptian advance would occur along a few constrained axes of advance known to all, with the dubious protection of a mobile SAM bubble subject to IAF air supremacy. This ameliorates any security dilemma.
5) As a purely factual matter, the Israelis in the embassy safe or panic room were, I think, Shabak (i.e., in this case or sense, the equivalent of DS) rather than diplomats.
est
ADTS
if theres any breakdown of
if theres any breakdown of peace and order between these 2 countries, the fault lies directly with the crumbling Egyptian government and its military dictators, as well as the newly empowered Ikhwan (MB). No Israeli leader desires a breakdown of stability on this border, yet this idea seems to be in full fashion in Cairo.
And bribing a military regime with more US weapons in order to get them to enforce law and order on their own territory, while at same time beating down students and free press, is not the best idea on how to promote American values and democracy.
Don't get it. Exum you're
Don't get it.
Exum you're busting your buttons doting over paying for peace. Yet with your own words you say the peace is a cold peace and the parties have "not formed a bond".
Where's the peace the US paid for to "not appreciate"?
Think about it. This war went asymmetric the players did not have to spend money on tanks and uniforms all they had to do was to fund their favorite terrorist group. The Israelis being the good hosts they are followed suit with the antics of the Mossad.
From where I sit, we have witnessed a Egypt-Israel war each and every time there was unrest in the region since 1979, the parties have deniability in the dispute and the still get the Camp David money.
BTW....Israel really made the Arabs look bad in those early wars. Had them running with their tails between their legs and they still feel the doubt in their defense abilities today. Think they what that public? Better to go asymmetric and get paid for the pleasure.
Same story and history, different view. It is hard to print the above story in the US news, the government looks better being the hero saving the day by crafting a hard won peace agreement by getting a bargain for such a little price paid. Shit why don't they sell those bargains at WalMart!!! Sell like hot cakes.
No one brags about getting a bad deal.
The Egyptians had their vote,
The Egyptians had their vote, they voted MB.
What makes you think they give a damn about the Palestinians? What makes you think the Pals want a deal? The deal they want is the destruction of Israel. You're a Lib, you're an American [yes, still], you're projecting.
A Palestinian state that met it's reason for existence involves the annihilation of the Jewish State. After which it would immediately both self destruct and be divided up - bloodily - amongst it's neighbors. They fed this monster and know the menace of the Beast. The Palestinians are a fiction without any History or even name until the camps in 1964. They will vanish one way or another if not by deed then by ending UN and International funding, or if not perhaps by their Victory. They have no reason to exist if that unlikely event occurred.
CONTEXT: THERE WAS A
CONTEXT: THERE WAS A REVOLUTION
This dramatic change means that a people who are now beyond the fear of government repression and won't be put back in their box. Both the US and Israel have to get used to a new relationship with Egypt, one that comprehends that that government must now convince the public [now called citizens and voters] of the benefits of any and all aspects of these ties. If we do not grasp how deep felt the demand for dignity and genuine sovereignty are, we will continue to stumble forward and make things worse, rather than better. First, it is time we remember that Egyptians never made peace with Israel, Sadat did and his successor reaped the benefits of continuing that policy. Does this mean that relations with Israel will likely be broken or there will be a war? No and no. Barring any exceptionally provocative act concerning the Palestinians or Egypt itself, diplomatic relations with Israel will continue. The Egyptian Armed Forces aren’t going to march on Israel, either. Israel’s military power surpasses all of the countries of the region combined.
What we will see is an Egypt less willing to go along with policies they see as counter to their interests. In the context of uncovering and rectifying corrupt business practices with regard to the country’s resources, for instance, we will see points of contention, such as Egypt’s unilateral abrogation of the agreement to sell natural gas [bartered by a Mubarak intimate] at less than a quarter of the market price. More seriously, there will be tremendous pressure on the next Egyptian president to end the isolation of Gaza, at least partially. Likewise, the deterioration of the security situation in Sinai will require Egypt to have more troops in that region, requiring a change in the peace agreement. In this sense, the relationship will likely resemble the current ties between Turkey and Israel. A “tougher” Egyptian approach to engagement with Israel will put the other Arab states in a position where they too must cool their ties as well, so there will likely be a ripple effect in the region.
In one sense, this is no different from the attitude of the Egyptian revolutionaries to the former regime’s economic policies that left the educational, health and social safety net systems in tatters, increasing the misery of a good percentage of Egyptians. Egyptians are fully aware that these policies garnered praise from the IMF and the USG. Both before and after the revolution, the Egyptians consistently expressed anger with regards to US policies. US-Egyptian relations will have to reflect a new attitude and the way we deal with Egypt if we hope to develop ties with the people of that country. We should begin by reminding Israel, as well, that the rules of the game have changed and urge that government to accept the new Egypt.
Response to elf: The
Response to elf: The Egyptians did not all vote for the MB. Consider how strongly the Salafis did relative to this organization that has been in existence since 1928! Recall that since 1952, there has been no significant political organization/machine other than the one that changed names and was only dissolved last year: the NDP. For that reason, at the grassroots level, no other groups had any name recognition at all. Among the poor, the Salafis garnered their votes based on their charitable activism, while the MB, a middle-class, business-oriented organization, did better among voters of their own class. The nascent parties did not even garner significant votes from organized labor or peasant unions as one would have expected. it is for this reason that Mohamed Baradei has formed at party that is not involved in the current presidential elections, but aims to get a foothold across the country in the coming four years, in order to overcome the current lack of political options.
But watch the presidential elections; the MB candidate is trailing both Amr Moussa [now leading in the polls by a slight margin] and ex-MB Abdel-Moneim Abouel-Fotouh, who has supporters across the ideological spectrum do to his perceived responsiveness to the economic and social reforms demanded by the people. Yet another Islamist, lawyer and intellectual, Dr Selim al 'Awa is also in the race, splitting the Islamist vote still further.
You should definitely make
You should definitely make time for Dodge's book. Also worth checking out Charles Tripp's 'A History of Iraq'. They both know their stuff...
http://www.amazon.co.uk/A-History-Iraq-Charles-Tripp/dp/052152900X
I'm going to make a
I'm going to make a prediction the strongest and best organized and most motivated will win. That's the MB. Moderate and Middle Class, just like Al-Zawahiri. This is the Sunni Iran in slower motion.
Elf's Prediction: It is
Elf's Prediction: It is tempting to see the MB as all powerful, but things are just not that simple......We are one week out from the 23 May elections and the MB candidate Dr Morsy is running 4th in the opinion polls now and at very considerable distance below the top three. Even ex-MB Abouel-Fotouh, who stood through four hours with front runner Amr Moussa in Egypt's first ever public and televised debate, has slipped to third place [by a tiny margin of 2% points] from no. 2, a position now held by Mubarak regime holdover, Ahmed Shafiq. He and no. 1 Amr Moussa are vying for the same voters. The MB candidate right now only enjoys a small lead against leftist Hamdeen Sabbahi. If the four left of center candidates combine their campaigns by agreeing that only one of their number continues on, then the impact of the organized labor vote [15-20 million] will be very meaningful. Ditto for the revolutionary youth who, together with labor, made the revolution, a claim that the MB can certainly NOT make.
It is true that if the MB's first choice, the very charismatic businessman Khairat El Shater, had not been disqualified, as was the Salafi candidate, the picture might have been different. However, all the current 13 candidates have been all over the airways in both paid ads and more significantly, on talk shows, so unlike the unknown entities who ran for parliament, the platforms at least for the top 7 or so of these guys are now fairly well known.
No one can forsee what will happen that day, though the likelyhood of a run-off in June is very likely. What we do know is that the earlier referendum and the parliamentary elections went off with little or no protestations of impropriety. Moreover, this time, in addition to reps of the candidates and local NGOs, international observers will be fanning out across the country as observers.
Regardless who wins the presidency, he will have to contend with a parliament overwhelmingly Islamist in attitude and agenda and a military leadership that despite their promises is unlikely to yield real power anytime soon.
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