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Syria: Interests, Options, Futures

My column for World Politics Review this week is on the conflict in Syria. I first explore the concerns of the Obama Administration before discussing the difficulty we analysts face in trying to understand what is taking place on the ground. I conclude by referencing some of the literature on civil wars and insurgencies for clues as to what might happen. Read it here.

Syria

8 comments

We would not be talking about

We would not be talking about the disappointments of this administration if they were not so free to jump on every bleeding heart cause. This administration likes to flaunt its arrogance by educating people, think Syria and China are Universities that this administration have never attended. Hillary has her panties in a bunch over Syria, poor her. The track record is clear on her intent considering Rwanda, Bosnia, Somalia, and Libya.

Might be time for American leadership to choose its Foreign Policy more wisely. It is our chosen causes that gives the US the appearance of decline and this administration is doing its best to make the US look bad by getting into conflicts where we can not use US strengths to decide a conflict. Example, 100 advisers looking for a stone age Kony with their high tech thumbs up their *sses in Uganda. If Bush started it, Obama is driving the nails in it. Afghanistan is no victory roll. Obama whipped up Hooorrrahhs with the UBL kill while he signed off the deed of the US Federal Reserve in Kabul with no clear rules for return-on-investment in the next ten years, which is a magic trick if I have ever seen one.

This public is fully aware of Syria's chemical weapons, it has not been missed. Chemical WMD are used as the boogie man to hold people's sensibilities at bay while they are sold an UN aid or peace keeping deal. Seems like freedom is cheap when security is in the deal. Not really sure how useful those chemical weapons are to a non-conventional group. Moving them undetected is one thing and then using them effectively without becoming an accident statistic is another.

Exum, one thing that you leave out of your Syrian article are the influence of outside actors in this civil war. Russia has not been missed by this reader. America fought with its hands tied behind its back in both Korea and Vietnam because of the backing by communist countries. Yellow hordes from the North was the fear in Korea I think today it is more about world energy and economies. Obama is not going to risk his next four years on starting something in Syria before the 2012 elections. Any current actions will be buried in CIA and DoD black budgets. If Obama gets his four more, I fear of what Syria will cost the American taxpayer. Bosnia is a good model if you want to see the future.

What happens in Syria will be determined by the US 2012 election, Russia is not going to give up easy. Assad's rule is so bruised that the remaining conflict will never let him survive without maintaining a police state. Either way Syria's and the rest of the ME economies are not going anywhere soon unless they do business globally or are connected to their internal defense networks. What good is a college degree if the only job is outside the country where you got your education ?

If America fixes Syria and the ME who is making America more sustainable?

America has spent good money running all over Europe and Russia to contain nuclear materials. The rest of the world sits on its *ss enjoying the State sponsored socialism perks they enjoy because they do not have defense budgets. Maybe it is time for Russia to clean up Syria's mess at their expense.

BTW. The Camp David accords and the payments to Egypt are not a deal if peace could have been done without the extra cost. Egyptians with their own lips have said that they no longer want the US AID ( when LaHood's kid got detained). The AID to Afghanistan for the next ten years is another Jimmy Carter in that it is just a hand out to get the people in power to say yes. Who is going to say NO to getting to MO? Karsai is not any less corrupt than he was a couple years ago.

Very helpful article.

Very helpful article. Thanks.

However: "enourmous," "desicive"? If these people won't hire proof-readers, authors will need to be more severe in their own self-editing.

Talking about bleeding heart

Talking about bleeding heart causes.

The State Department says Chen Guangchen has been offered a fellowship at a university in the U.S.


How many US children, whose parent's built the campuses, will not go to University this year ? All those that are not "connected"!

There are other ways to influence China on human rights. What about the other few billion souls that did not throw a temper tantrum in China?

BTW...Meanwhile Iran and N.Korean issues, which impact a hell of a lot of others, gets over-shadowed.

Clinton sure does attract a lot of wet puppies. Hate to see what happens when she gets done transforming her image for POTUS. My kids will never get into a US College, too many other foreign souls are more important.

Should be a good book. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/75865.html
The closer to reality, the more the typos and common discussion. Now we will see the common not the craft.
Obama: Illusionist and Chief.

Creepers. Not sure what is

Creepers.

Not sure what is more scary

Syria?

or this. http://www.barackobama.com/life-of-julia

What, I spent my life pulling myself up by my bootstraps so that Julia doesn't have to get her fingernails bruised?

What's next? Taxing Julia's oxygen to pay for the clean air act?

Legalizing pot has had a strange affect on Julia.

Think Julia can get a job

Think Julia can get a job with the Secret Service? They respect woman for their brains.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/04/world/americas/colombia-prostitute-intervi...

This Julia business is too rich. Go back and get a new mascot.

Julia's Mom did the John

Julia's Mom did the John Wayne in the 'nam. She went to the College of hard knocks.
You can see her hump'in the bush here.
http://www.ep.tc/problems/25/02.html

(The M16A1 manual was a US government publication)

BTW.
Without making comments pro or con about Julia, I asked my wife to read it cover to cover. Then I asked her how it made her feel. (She is a full time professional career person).

Survey Responses:

1) Makes me feel like a child.
2) Some of the information is not accurate.

Starting to think going

Starting to think going backwards is the new normal. Why aren't we talking about the journey of how we got here in the first place (no it wasn't Bush).

Where were the administrators in HLS and GSA BEFORE the employees screwed up? Now government leaders are heroes for correcting the mistake? What is that about??? America is talking about the percent on student loans. NO ONE is talking about how the loan principle got so F*ing outrageously HUGE. You can blame the cuts in Federal and State money to Universities in the 80's and 90's, it only an indirect problem. Federal, State, and Private aid to University students has never been as great as it is today.

Consider this.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76038.html

Janet Napolitano and General Services Administration acting administrator Dan Tangherlini on Tuesday defended their respective agencies in the face of recent controversies, with Napolitano praising the Secret Service’s response to the Colombian prostitution scandal and Tangherlini insisting GSA employees are as angry about the Las Vegas spending scandal as Congress and the public are.

and this.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/us-usa-education-loans-idUSBRE...

Elbot Carman, a 25-year-old aspiring graphic designer, made so little money after earning his master's degree last year that the U.S. government now says he can hold off making payments on his school loans. Carman owes $140,000 in a mix of government and private student loans. Last year he earned $12,000.

What happened to the change that Obama promised?

GSA and Secret Service agents AND administrators get paid very well and get fantastic retirement benefits. These people should not be made heroes, they should be fired.

US Universities are bloated and wasteful. Every time they get more money they expand, they never say NO to MO. The institutions have been vacuuming up every penny they can get. They cannot control their spending. That is why tuition has increased 10x to 15x in the past thirty years, wages and inflation has not increased as much over the same period of time. Example: Professor CEO...paid six-figure salary, health benefits, gets to take home 40% of royalties on intellectual property generated, their children do not pay the same high tuition as other taxpayers kids, once tenured they cannot be fired, and they take all that to into retirement !!!!!!

No middle class taxpayer gets as many perks as Federal or University Professors !!!

And we are pissing over what the rich do not pay in taxes to support this????

Backwards.

Don't believe me? Our local State University's football coach pull over $1,000,000 / yr, that is education. (all the administrator salaries are over $300,000/yr, the President is close to a cool Million, but less than the football coach.)

You tell me what is wrong. It ain't Syria.

Gay marriage? Just when I

Gay marriage?

Just when I thought I might have a chance to get employed again. Its the economy stupid.

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