Abu Muqawama: Post
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Adapting to the New Middle East
I spent all last week traveling around a country in the Middle East that rhymes with "Shmisreal" getting a feel for how leaders and analysts there see the Arab Spring. In general, our Shmisraeli friends remain pessimistic about what has thus far taken place and the trends they see going forward. By contrast, I spent the past eight months looking at the Middle East as part of a team that included Bruce Jentleson, Melissa Dalton and Dana Stuster, and although we identified some real near-term concerns for the United States, we also indentified several potentially positive trends for the United States.
Please do me a favor and provide some meaning for my life by downloading the paper here.
The bottom line is that the United States can accept a lot more risk in the region than it has done over the past decade. (Aside from that whole "invading Iraq" thing, of course, which entailed more risk than many of us were comfortable with.) Reduced U.S. dependency on the states of the Gulf as well as the return of politics to the Arab world should both be positive trends for U.S. interests -- so long as U.S. policy makers play their cards right.
Again, read the report here.
Muddle along? Not sure all
Muddle along? Not sure all the aid money that has gone into the ME past, plus the WOT is muddling. US Sec of State could not stop on a tarmac without leaving at least $25M behind in the past few years.
Only those that have an expansionist agenda would call what the US does muddling.
US can do a whole lot less with a lot more response. One of the US interests that you labeled are values. US values freedom of choice.
Get out of the ME business and let them have their freedom of choice, stop trying to buy it for them.
Abu, three crises are two too
Abu, three crises are two too many for us to prioritize. Keeping the peace between Israel & Egypt in the new political order is paramount. Second, maybe -- a BIG maybe & utterly dependent on what our allies prefer to do -- is Syria. Iran? Fuggetaboutit. Persuade allies to accept IAEA compliance at face value, not require more stringent inspections/controls on enrichment than is required in other IAEA states. If they go nuclear, they go nuclear; nothing we can do about it and Teheran's inherent conservatism (and domestic discontent) will keep the lid on. Israel is in NO danger and, in fact, a prime Iranian motivation to go nuclear is self-protection against a rogue Israel, which has lashed out a couple of times against suspected proliferators. Look to history: both India and Pakistan went nuclear decades ago, and the subcontinent has become if anything more peaceful in terms of regional rivalry. Neither side wants another war.
I am going to provide
I am going to provide meaning. Before I do...sight unseen...guess...
"The bottom line is that the United States can accept a lot more risk in the region than it has done over the past decade."
I am going to guess these aren't my kind of risks...willing to be surprised.
Find some meaning to your
Find some meaning to your life?
I'd start with self-reflection?
But, you've got your own road to travel, I suppose...
I was calling him Dr Exum for
I was calling him Dr Exum for years. And see now he is...Congratulations. Doubters.
Israel: Peace Process restart...after consideration, NO.*
No on suggested land for more terror,etc...whom the Gods-respectively Yahweh, Jesu and Allah - would destroy they make Doctors and suggest to them to restart Frankenstein's Heart. No. The Pals have missed their final opportunity.
The correct answer to bring about real negotiations from Abu Boom and Ibn Milk Hatred is to end UNRWA at whatever cost to my beloved United Nations. Gone and finished - as are potential lifelines for this bloody charade in Euro-Stan.
And now is the perfect opportunity. When UNRWA and the aid ends the nightmare ends.
[*The peace process has been reset more than a 486 with Windows 98 factory loaded with a pathetic misguided attempt to patch up to WinMe or something aughtish... geek talk. it sucks, bye..]
Syria - Status Quo Perpetum Bellum. Bene for us. And Sweet Schadenfreude...
Gulf Oil - we have plenty of our own.. bye...
Iran - um...the real two track is they get nukes or they don't. Bet on do ...and stop pretending talk will change anything.
You may very well have tragically missed the true nature of religion yet again with regard to them being deterred. And no one..no one in DC/Beltway in a policy or influence position seems to grasp Religion, any Religion.
"Shmisreal" doesnt rhyme with
"Shmisreal" doesnt rhyme with anything!
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