Abu Muqawama: October 2008

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  • While AM has been surfing the interwebs keeping track of smart-allecky grad students on the Syrian border, Charlie has been trying to wrap her brain around the attack earlier this week.  Two articles are stuck in her craw.

    First, Eli Lake (late of the later NY Sun), reports in TNR that the attack into Syria was part of a blanket authorization of cross-border raids for both Iraq and Afghanistan, approved earlier this summer.
    In July, according to three administration sources, the Bush administration formally gave the military new power to strike terrorist safe havens outside of Iraq and Afghanistan. Before then, a military strike in a country like Syria or Pakistan would have required President Bush's personal approval. Now, those kinds of strikes in the region can occur at the discretion of the incoming commander of Central Command (Centcomm), General David Petraeus. One intelligence source described the order as institutionalizing the "Chicago Way," an allusion to Sean Connery's famous soliloquy about bringing a gun to a knife fight.
    So that brings us to the million dollar question:  who authorized the attack?  The most likely answer is Petraeus.  But two things have Charlie second-guessing herself, here.  First, this was a special operations raid meaning it could have been authorized through JSOC and not Centcom.  (And, though of course she can't find them now, some reports earlier in the week suggested this was an OGA, not Army, endeavor.)  

    Second, ABC News is reporting that Petraeus proposed opening talks with the Syrians:
    ABC News has learned, Petraeus proposed visiting Syria shortly after taking over as the top U.S. commander for the Middle East.  The idea was swiftly rejected by Bush administration officials at the White House, State Department and the Pentagon....Officials familiar with Petraeus' thinking on the subject say he wants to engage Syria in part because he believes that U.S. diplomacy can be used to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran. He plans to continue pushing the idea.
    Now it's not inconceivable that Petraeus would want to open talks and then subsequently authorize cross-border raids against a high-value target.  But it's not entirely consistent either.  If this raid somehow occurred in Centcom's area of operations, but without Petraeus' explicit approval (ie, it went through JSOC), then things are way more fubar than even Charlie realized.  

    If, on the other hand, King David did authorize the raid, it begs the questions as to how he incorporates this strike into his broader regional strategy.  Is it a signal to the Syrians?  An effort to further degrade AQI so as to allow for more regional diplomacy?  Or is it yet another instance of ops driving strategy?  (An issue AM promises to explore in his weekly Monday digest.)

    Said differently, wtf is really going on here?



  • And when you're out of Schlitz, you're out of beer.  

    Charlie is spending her Tuesday evening watching PBS's Frontline's new documentary on the war in Afghanistan.  It features interviews with Army units in the Korengal, and a murderer's row of friends of this blog:  Dave Kilcullen, John Nagl, Colin Kahl, and Tom Ricks, among others.  Steve Coll (author of Ghost Wars) is absolutely lights out.

    It may not all be news to avid readers of the world's most famous blog, but it's a great breakdown of the complicated issues at hand.  It's both basic counter-insurgency and fundamentally different from the task at hand in Iraq.  Check your listings or watch it online.

    Update:  Intrepid Spencer makes the same observation as Charlie:  Dr. Nagl's hair looks positively professorial.

  • That's Phil sitting at the top of my version of nytimes.com right now.

    (Of course saying Phil is a veteran who "campaigns" for Sen. Obama is a bit of an understatement.  He's like, you know, the national director for veteran outreach for the campaign.)

    But the video, along with other forms of heightened veteran activity, also raises an issue that worries some veterans and military experts: When does partisanship go too far? Is it possible to be involved in politics without becoming part of what Mr. Bellavia disdains as “the game”?
  • The NYT is reporting that the US has attacked several positions across the border in Syria:
    BAGHDAD — Iran joined Syria on Monday in condemning what they described as an attack by four United States helicopters on the Syrian side of the border with Iraq that they said killed eight people.

    The United States confirmed that a special operations mission took place in the area on Sunday but a senior military official gave no more details for now.
    Is this a signal to Damascus not to interfere with the ongoing SOFA negotiations? A strike against a high-value target? And what should we make of our new heliborne doctrine of cross-border incursions? Discuss. (Quality rumint welcome.)

    Update: And from our very own Andrew Exum (via Nick Blanford and Time magazine):
    U.S. missile-firing drones reportedly killed at least 20 people on Sunday in Pakistan's South Waziristan province close to the Afghan border, an area
    suspected of harboring Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters. Andrew Exum, a former U.S. army officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and founder of the influential Abu Muqawama counter-insurgency blog, suggests that the American action in Syria shows that the tactic may simply have been exported. "The precedent has already been established of crossing borders into safe havens. Operational commanders would have to be thinking, if we can do it in Pakistan, why can't we do it in Syria," he says.
    That's right folks, influential. You heard it here first.
  • In Londonstani's world there's little worse than an overpaid French or Italian banker complaining about British food and weather while living in London and paying less tax than at home. In the same vein, he likes to avoid complaining about U.S. politics, when he doesn't have to have U.S. politicians in charge of him. However, he's making an exception in the case of this NYT op-ed on how a President Obama might change global perceptions of America because .. well, when you talk about "global perceptions" you mean us, non-Americans. 

    Kristof hits the nail on the head when he says; "Remember that the one thing countless millions of people around the world "know" about the United States is that it is controlled by a cabal of white bankers and Jews who use police with fire hoses to repress blacks. To them, Mr. Obama's rise triggers severe cognitive dissonance"

    No matter how rich and industrialised China and India become, they don't have a national ideal. They don't stand for anything on the world stage, or even pretend to. The U.S. has freedom, good governance and equality. Yes, many, if not most of the rest of the world, thinks the U.S. hasn't lived up to those ideals. But the idea that they are there and should be lived up to is powerful and real enough to make U.S. politicians have to acknowledge them, to their domestic audience as much to the foreign one.

    While reporting round the world, Londonstani has often gotten the impression that anger at the United States is often stoked by the idea that the U.S. has not lived up to its own ideals. If China was screwing you over, you'd probably expect it.

    I know that a black American president who came from humble beginnings will challenge perceptions in the Middle East in the same way a white president from a privileged background reinforced them. 

    For some people, not just hardcore extremists, America defines their identities in reverse. In other words, they model themselves on being the opposite of America, which is why Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo are so devastating for the U.S.'s political capital. But where does that leave them if America lives up to the best of its ideals. 

    So, yeah, if I was you lot, I'd vote for him.

  • The third part of Londonstani's look at the Darfur conflict.

    Part 3

    Counter insurgency doctrine states that it takes more than brute force to pacify a restive population. This is not a lesson that the Sudanese government learned from the two-decade long civil war it fought with southern rebels that ended just as the Darfur conflict kicked off.

    The Sudanese government’s outlook is common amongst the ruling elites of other Arab countries. But Sudan is different from other Arab countries in the same way Afghanistan is different from Pakistan. The ruling elites of Khartoum have rarely wielded effective power far outside of Khartoum and their own tribal homelands without having to enter into alliances with local forces.

    And, that's exactly what the government did next. In a move that closely resembles the U.S. effort to remove the Taliban from power in Afghanistan only two years before,
    Khartoum identified that the main support for the rebels came from the Fur and Zaghawa communities. So, it turned to their nomadic Arab neighbours, and competitors for dwindling resources. The government cut deals with the leaders of these groups, offering them money, weapons and whatever land they could appropriate from their neighbours to help put down the rebellion. The government called its new proxy warriors the Popular Defence Forces. Ali Khushayb was their chief. The militia, and gunmen linked to them, are to blame for the brutal attacks on civilians that the U.S. has called a genocide. Often, these attacks were co-ordinated by Sudanese army officers and supported by Sudanese airforce bombing.

    As the fighting intensified, so did the rebels’ demands. The ragtag fighters suddenly attracted the attention of disaffected Sudanese on the peripheries of government or in self-imposed exile. One of these men was the leader of JEM, Khalil Ibrahim, a former government commander during the “Jihad” against the southerners. The root cause of the Darfuris’ problems – their new friends explained to them – was that the government wouldn’t agree to power sharing. Sudan was run as a private club, they said. Ibrahim adopted the Darfur cause to further his own personal spat with his former friends in the regime. Other leaders, like Mini Minnawi, the head of one faction of the SLA, saw the war as a means to stop the janjawid attacks and bring Darfur more government attention. Minnawi once told me he was a simple school teacher who wanted equality for his people, which was why he entered an uneasy alliance with the government. The other SLA leader Abdul Wahid al Nur seemed to quickly realise the war presented him the opportunity of gaining independence for Darfur, with him as the leader.

    Governments tend to see themselves as the true embodiment of their nation's hopes and destiny. With Muslim governments, this results in a tendency to portray opponents as not only traitors to the nation, but traitors to Islam. Sudan is no different. The Sudanese government does its best to portray the rebels as sell outs. This is helped by an added dose of Arab chauvinism that sees non-Arabs as “not quite as Muslim” as those who speak the language of the Quran.

    The government had already portrayed the two-decade war against the southerners as a Jihad for the defence of Islam against “animal worshipping pagans” and “American backed Christians”. This official mentality was swiftly adapted to explain the actions of the Darfuris, who were mainly Muslim. While in Khartoum in 2005 and 2006, I spoke to several Sudanese officials who described Darfur's rebels as Israeli agents. Stealing oil, they assumed, must be the motivation. The pervasive nature of this vilification blurred the lines in their own minds between civilians and combatants. When I returned this year, I could see the government was still blinded by its own faulty definitions.

    In Chad, just over the border from Darfur, where refugees live in straw huts under constant threat of Sudanese bombardment, men and women described the latest push by the Sudanese against the rebels. In a campaign lasting two months, the militia gunmen – known by locals as Janjawid – backed by Sudanese army vehicles and jets destroyed villages. Ground attack aircraft were used to drop munitions on women and children who had run into the hills. One woman described seeing her five-year's throat being gauged out by flying shrapnel. Weeks on, her teenage daughter still couldn't speak. She spent most of the days sleeping or crying. One man who had a small radio, tuned into the communications between the pilots and their commanders on the ground. He told me he heard the senior officer tell the pilot; “Finish them off.” This matched the position of the officials I had met in Khartoum, which was basically summed up as; “If they fight us, they are rebels. If they let those who fight us live in their villages, they are rebels. And rebels need to be killed.”

    Despite the outlook of the officials, the government in Khartoum hasn’t yet managed to make the Sudanese population adopt its point of view. In a traditional, uncentralised society, people are more likely to demonstrate their independent streak by deciding they will decide who they like and don't like, and not whatever clique presently claims to rule. The government might try to equate itself with “the nation”, but that in itself is a pretty loose notion to most Sudanese.

    JEM commanders had pressed the importance of a hearts and minds approach on their fighters before the push to Khartoum. When the fighters arrived at the outskirts of the city, they asked to buy food and water from the locals, treated everyone they came across with respect and explained their fight was with the government alone. The locals, ignoring government propaganda that the men were bandits, killers and Israeli agents, offered them food for free, before asking them about the reasons behind their conflict with the government.

    I arrived in Sudan, three days after the failed raid. The JEM fighters had over stretched. Their exhausted fighters had come close to their objectives and key divisions of the army had refused orders to fight them. But the government's bacon had been saved by the security forces, an army-within-an-army formed to protect the regime rather than the country.

    The relative of a friend lived in one of the areas JEM fought government troops.

    “The JEM guys came to my uncle’s house asking to buy food and water,” he told me. “My uncle could see they were tired and hungry so he asked them to come inside and my aunt brought them food and water. But before they had a chance to leave, the government forces came and arrested them along with my uncle.

    “My uncle said to the soldiers, ‘Why are you arresting me?’ They said, ‘because you gave help to the enemies of the state.’ So my uncle says to them, ‘I saw only travelers needing food and water. As a Muslim, it was my duty to provide that. The conflict between you is none of my business.’”

    The soldiers let the uncle go.

    After the battles on the outskirts of Khartoum, the government adopted the language of counterterrorism to tar its enemies. JEM, it told the world, were Islamist extremists bent on turning Sudan into an Islamic state.

    JEM's rank and file soldiers were not Islamists. But the changes brought about by the conflict could persuade some of them that a modern adaptation of Islam could provide all the answers. Others, could come to think, maybe with some outside influence, that the only way forward was to force everyone to live as the prophet had in 7th century Arabia. Others still, might respond to Khartoum's racial superiority complex by rediscovering the glory of their own ancestors.

    The traditional bonds that could have helped Darfur return to normal are disappearing, if they haven't already gone. This situation is echoed in Afghanistan. American journalist Nir Rosen writing for Rolling Stone magazine quotes a Taliban commander who disapproves of his fellow fighters' targeting of civilians.

    “There used to be rules. Now, for many Taliban, there is only killing. They are not acting like Afghans,” he told Rosen.

    The rebels I was with observed all five daily prayers, the spoke about the actions of Khartoum as being “un-Islamic”, and talked about adhering to the Sharia. We began our first meeting sitting cross legged on a mat. We spoke after the commander recited the opening verses of the Quran and started our conversation by praising the prophet and his companions and asking God to guide our actions. This was the usual way of conducting affairs in Darfur.

    Many of the fighters complained that bandits had hurt their cause by pretending to be rebels while looting aid convoys or stealing from civilians. They blamed the other main rebel group, the SLA, for having poor command and control over its fighters. Sources in Khartoum confirmed that JEM were the more disciplined force with fighters exhibiting better standards of behaviour.

    These were Muslims from Darfur, not radical extremist Islamists. So far, Darfur has escaped the influence of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, which has operated as far south as Nigeria, and the al Qaeda presence in Somalia. But Darfur is just the sort of place AQ can flourish.
  • The second part of Londonstani's look at Darfur's conflict.

    Part 2:

    The vicious fighting over the past five years has changed the nature of Darfur's society by causing its people to question the fundamentals of their world view.

    Before crossing into Darfur, I spent a few nights in an isolated refugee village on the border with Chad. One night, the men acting as teachers in the makeshift school decided to brave the risk of aerial bombardment by lighting a bonfire for the children. Nearly 50 children sat around the fire singing, laughing and taking turns to recite verses of the Quran.

    I sat, watched and made idle conversation with a group of men who were back with their families after fighting with the JEM rebels for the past three months. To avoid having to contribute to the evening by singing a song in English “or Pakistani or whatever”, I walked back to the patch of desert I was sleeping on. A young fighter walked back with me.

    “This is the reason we are in this humiliating situation,” Khaled said to me.

    “The people of Darfur are blinded by religion,” he went on. “People tell us to accept suffering because of religion, and we do. People tell us to fight and die because of religion, and we do. Our people need to stop putting so much Quran into their brains, because there is little more room for other things that will help us develop and become strong and independent.”

    Khaled's words were like the reality television version of my old university's Modern Middle East History course. In the late 19th century, all over the Middle East, and the wider Muslim world, people's trust in their traditional methods of social organisation, politics and trade was challenged when they felt they had proved unable to match European strength. A sense of social and economic dislocation convinced Egyptians, Indians and Laventines to turn away from professional guilds, Sufi orders and religious endowments and take refuge in secular Socialism, Arabism, Communism and, eventually, Islamism. This process had happened over a century, in Darfur it was just beginning.

    The change in outlooks goes hand in hand with a change in social dynamics.

    Without a real centre of learning of their own, growing numbers of young men, and women, from Darfur had started coming to Khartoum for a university education. Khartoum University has a long history of, sometimes violent, political activism on its campus. All the political trends of Sudan are represented, including Islamists and Communists, as well as those seeking greater autonomy, or even independence, for Sudan's far flung regions.

    As I sat on a oil drum full of diesel balanced on creates of ammunition piled up in the back of one of JEM's battle wagons, one young fighter told me he joined up for war after seeing Khartoum.

    “I went there and saw what they have and compared it to what we have,” he told me.

    But it wasn't only seeing the relatively better developed capital that persuaded him to throw his lot in with JEM, Taqi told me as the butt of his ancient AK47 clanged against the tip of an even older RPG hanging off the doorframe. University presented new ideas. He heard that it was the government's duty to treat each area of the country equally. In fact, he'd heard government officials saying they did exactly that, which he knew not to be true. He heard some students belonged to parties that said the government should provide everyone with free electricity, health care, an education and even jobs. Others said that in a true Islamic system, the government would do all this and bring about equality by returning the country to the ideals of the prophet, in whose eyes men of all races were equal. Some said, that as a Darfuri, Taqi had a proud history to live up to. His ancestors, they said, had been Daju, an ancient black race that brought civilisation to the area while Europeans were herding goats and Arabs lived in tents. His more recent Tanjur ancestors brought Islam to Darfur and established trade and farming before the roaming, nomadic Arabs arrived to exploit their success.

    Elements of all the things Taqi had been told were true. But he'd never considered them before. He'd always seen life in his inhospitable region as the natural way of things. He now realised things could be different. He wasn't sure exactly how he wanted things to be, but he wanted them to be different.

    Returning from a still smoldering village of gutted straw huts and bullet casings strewn among children's toys, our battle truck broke down. While we waited for another to pick us up, I sat under a nearby tree with Taqi and Ahmed, the commanding officer of our little platoon.

    Ahmed and Taqi had different visions for Darfur. Ahmed wanted the present government removed and all of Sudan represented in a government that was committed to developing and serving the entire country. Taqi was thinking the rest of Sudan could look after itself and that Darfur should go it alone. Ahmed's vision was more Islamist leaning and Taqi's more left leaning. However, both took it for granted that force was needed to govern. Compromise and conciliation were fine for solving disputes over water and grazing, but to rule, an iron fist was a must, they said. Using commerce to promote mutual dependence, and promoting debate to foster consensus were time consuming and unnecessary, they felt. I pointed out that on that fundamental point, they were in agreement with the government they were at war with.

    The conflict is bringing Darfur up to speed with the rest of the Muslim world. Armed with new ideas as well as the new guns, young men in Darfur are changing the social makeup of the region.

    In camps of near 100,000 refugees like El Salaam on the outskirts of El Fasher in North Darfur state and Kalma near Nyala in South Darfur state, the rebel groups are handing out guns to the young men from their own communities. They sideline the village chiefs and prayer leaders by controlling access to the most important resources in Darfur; food and water. The aid agencies bring the vital supplies to the camps, but once inside, they leave the last stage of distribution to local committees. What is supposed to be an incentive to mobilise the community becomes an asset the competing factions use to cement their control.

    This same process has played out in countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran with oil and in countries like Egypt and Tunisia with tourism.

    In five years Darfur is making great strides in moving from pre-modern to modern third-world urban sprawl. It took the rest of the Muslim world the best part of a century.

    What's happening on a small scale in Darfur's camps is also happening on a national level. Sudan has found oil.

    For the first time in Sudan’s history, the rulers have an independent source of wealth. The oil fields are under government control and pumping and selling oil is a lot easier than creating the social and economic environment that encourages wealth creation through mutual cooperation which the government can then tax. Oil allows the government to start moving the country from an Afghanistan situation to a model that more resembles Egypt, where the state is the unchallenged central actor in all things. The government is using oil wealth to establish patronage and develop a commercial class that owes its existence to those in power. The regime uses oil wealth to cut deals with telecoms companies, tour operators, international contractors and global banks to tie the profits of international companies to the survival of those in power.

    The present government of Omar al Bashir, which came into power in 1989, has had the good fortune of ruling at a time Sudan’s newly discovered oil resources are generating huge amounts of money because of high global oil prices. This governing elite, which is more exposed to outside ideas than the rest of the country, has decided that what the nation needs is strong centralised rule to drag it into the modern world. The idea that centralised rule equals a strong country is adopted from the experiences of other Arab states that saw centralisation as a pit stop on the way to constructing a strong state that regain a sense of pride lost during an emasculating period of European rule. Unfortunately, this mentality takes for granted a measure of dictatorial rule. In practice, greater aims of national development are lost as competing personalities fight to become that dictator, and then retain the position.

    The oil, and the new approach to power it created among the ruling elite, contributed to the war in Darfur.

    A simple journalist measures the start of hostilities from the time one group attacks another with the stated of aim of achieving a bunch of objectives. In Darfur, this moment came about in March 2003, when armed men in four-wheel drive vehicles rode into the region’s largest town – El Fasher – attacked the airport and destroyed government aircraft.

    The rebels called themselves the Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA) and had simple aims. They had heard the government was getting oil money and they wanted more schools and clinics. They also wanted the few teachers and doctors in Darfur to get paid regularly and receive back pay for the past six months. Since then, the rebels have split into more than a dozen different groups and numerous factions.

    The government’s reaction was predictable. The fighting began after the failure of a quick round of negotiations, where – in time-honoured fashion - Khartoum tried co-opt the leaders of the group. Thousands of Sudanese army soldiers were mobilised to fight the “traitors” and “Israeli agents” looking to “steal the country’s oil and mineral wealth” in the west of the country. In late 2003, while the world was still looking at the newly “liberated” Iraq, I covered a new war remotely for a news agency. Sitting in a far away city, I kept in contact with the civilian, military and rebel leaders through satellite phones. Every third day I wrote a report on a new battle. The pattern was always the same. Huge columns of Sudanese soldiers marching out of Darfur’s main towns would be ambushed. The death tolls were measured in the hundreds. The Sudanese military would claim not to know entire battalions had been obliterated in Darfur, while the rebels would claim their own casualties that were never more serious than a sprained ankle. At the same time they claimed the Sudanese were using “Apaches”, “Napalm” and “chemical weapons” against them.

    Casualty figures for the Darfur conflict have always been an exercise in guesswork. The latest figure thrown about by international bodies is 300,000 dead. This figure – which has found itself repeated until it appears as fact in news reports– was offhandedly mentioned as an estimate by UN humanitarian affairs under secretary John Holmes of how many have been killed by fighting, disease or hunger. The government says only 11,000 have been killed in its fight with people it characterises as bandits.

    It’s easier to pin down how many people have been made homeless by the conflict because most of them have settled in camps in and around Darfur. At the last count, these people numbered about 2 million - a third of Darfur’s total population.

    Part 3 tomorrow...
  • The New York Times reported on Monday that Sudan had arrested a militia leader charged by the international criminal court with responsibility for mass murder in Darfur. Sudan has said before it wouldn't hand over Ali Khushayb, the militia leader, but all that changed when the court laid charges against the president himself in July.

    The international media is like a not-very-clever lumbering, drunken beast. It lurches one way and then the other. While Afghanistan was slipping into disaster, the media was looking at Iraq too hard to think about multitasking. In an effort to avoid the same pitfall, Londonstani, thinks this is a good time to look at Darfur, where a fairly young insurgency is morphing along lines we have already seen in Afghanistan.
    Due to it's length, this will be a three-part posting, with a couple of pictures to help you power through.

    Part 1:

    Ameen, the commander of the dozen machinegun-mounted pickup trucks surrounding us in a rocky hide out in Darfur, had a simple message for the government of Sudan:

    “If they want peace; we are ready for peace. But, if they want to fight; then, we are ready for killing.”

    But nothing is ever clear and straight forward in Darfur. Ameen, I later realised, wasn't being entirely honest. Hours after waving me off back to the borderland of rock and sand his Justice and Equality (JEM) fighters use as a rear base, Ameen's forces gathered with nearly 1,000 other pickups and drove around 600 miles across the desert to attack Khartoum.

    It was the first time Darfur rebels had taken the fight to the capital. On the outskirts of Khartoum, they fought better-armed Sudanese security forces at key entrances to the city and came within rifle range of their objectives to capture key government installations. For hours it seemed the government might actually fall. The army stayed out of the fight and left the security forces, parallel fighting units drawn from tribes allied to ruling figures, to battle the insurgents. It was 24 hours before the government felt it had survived the storm.

    The second Battle of Omdurman - the first having been fought between British forces and Sudan's Mahdists in 1898 - was yet another mutation of the Darfur conflict, which has evolved from a simple armed revolt for better state resources into a complex civil war that has changed forever the society it springs from.

    After the attack on Khartoum, the Islamist government which harboured Osama bin Laden in the 1990s and is still on the State Department's list of countries that support terror, carried out an image overhaul worthy of a Soviet-era Afghan policeman who has become a minister in Hamid Karzai's government by calling JEM an “Islamist terrorist organisation”. The JEM leadership, as far as I could tell, had little in the way of ideology. They wanted more government money and more say in the way their areas were governed. But upheaval causes change. The violence in Darfur has changed the social norms of the region and given rise to new outlooks which have turned a traditional Muslim agrarian society into fertile ground for ideologies that can explain the injustice Darfuris feel and justify the violence they see as the answer.

    Darfur is one of the most covered and least understood conflicts in the world. It has become a politically correct cause, where all reasonable people are expected to equate the Sudanese government with Hitler and the Nazis without question. But such moral sweeps prevent a closer examination of the Sudanese government's motives and methods. From the outset, the Sudanese government's aim was to pacify Darfur's rebels. Their approach led to the humanitarian disaster and political powder keg we see today.

    Understanding the Darfur conflict, where it might head and ultimately, how to stop it, rests on understanding its history.

    When the war started, life in Darfur was pretty much as it has probably been for thousands of years. Isolated villages of straw huts dotted the landscape, there was no electricity or sanitation and journeys were measured by how much distance a donkey could cover in a day. Darfur used to be run by a loose central authority that, in the Islamic tradition, called itself a Sultanate. It's main job was to mediate conflict - which usually involved watering and grazing rights. The Sultanate was abolished in 1917, when Darfur became the last part of Sudan to fall to British control.

    Darfur’s population is mainly made up of three principle groups; Fur, Zaghawa and Arabs. However, the simplicity of life in Darfur belies the complexity of its society. Fur and Zaghawa are generally farmers – but not always. And Arabs are usually nomadic, but sometimes farm. All three groups fight each other, and the clans within each group fight amongst themselves. Confused? Not if you know Afghanistan.

    The three states that make up Darfur cover about 200,000 square miles – which makes it nearly as large as France. The terrain is scrubby desert splattered with pockets of lush vegetation. In Afghanistan, fighters can take shelter in mountains, in Darfur, they can disappear in the oceanic desert. In the rainy season, large swathes of Darfur are covered with a thin film of green, which disappears as quickly as it comes. No one is quite sure of the size of the population. But most estimates rest on about 6 million.

    The fact that Darfur, like most of Sudan, remains pre-modern, means that it has also escaped the cataclysmic events of the 20th century that form the identity and outlook of much of the Muslim world. Many in Sudan felt they beat the British Empire when forces loyal to Mohammed Ahmed, aka the Mahdi, captured Khartoum in 1885 with the help of large numbers of fighters from Darfur. Today, Darfuris shrug off the history of British rule in Sudan because Britain’s imperial footprint from 1898 to 1956 was relatively light. Most of Darfur would never have seen a Sudanese official let alone a British one. In a country that had not experienced the urbanisation that was taking place in Cairo, Damascus and Delhi, the sense of humiliation that reverberated around the Muslim world is largely absent from the Sudanese psyche. The relatively short British presence in Sudan, and the fact that the limited British presence was ignored by much of the rest of the country saved Sudan’s national consciousness from having its nose rubbed in the superiority of European technical advancement. In places like Darfur, life with all its trials, tribulations and occasional warfare continued in the same way as it had for centuries. The traveler Robert Byron in the 1930s called Afghanistan “Asia without the inferiority complex”. Sudan is the Arab world’s equivalent, and for similar reasons.

    Sudanese governments that have come to power after independence in 1956 have never felt the need to re-establish effective local administration. Like many other Arab governments they saw local government as a threat to the elite ruling in the capital and decided instead to administer from the centre. Darfur got little resources, but its man power was used by the men in government, including Darfuri officials living in the capital, to fight their wars. The present regime used thousands of Darfuri young men to fight the mainly Christian and Anamist south of the country for over two-decades under the banner of jihad. Colonel Ghaddafi of Libya used Darfur as a base from which to attack Chad, and flooded the region with weapons. The result was that Darfur was largely forgotten and insulated, but also militarised and volatile.

    Part 2 tomorrow....
  • Straight from Charlie's inbox, Tom Ricks' (unedited) follow-up to our Sassaman/Sanchez anti-COIN manual post earlier this week.

    I’ve been reading this thread with great interest. Comments like these are one reason I value this website so much. I am busy finishing my next book, but wanted to chime in with a few thoughts: 

    --I am in no way saying that everyone who served in Iraq when Lt. Gen. Sanchez and Lt. Col. Sassaman were there is a loser. That is a sloppy misreading of what I wrote—and, if we want to question motive, as some on this thread do, it makes me wonder if this gross exaggeration is an attempt to hide behind the soldier. What I am saying is that if you want to know why we were on a path to defeat in Iraq from 2003 through 2006, these two books are a good place to start. Again, to be clear: I am not blaming the soldiers—I am blaming senior officers. Do I have the right to do so? Yes, just as you all have the right to disagree or not to read what I write. Accountability? I get judged in the marketplace of ideas every day. That’s the American way, and I am comfortable with it. If people don’t believe you, they tend not to read your articles or buy your books. 

    --It does no one any good to pretend things were going well in Iraq when they weren’t, especially if the purpose of the pretense is to avoid hurting the feelings of generals. Anyone who thinks we were winning in 2006 must not have been paying attention. 

    --Constructing a narrative? I call it reporting the facts and trying to figure out how they fit together. I know Col. Gentile disagrees. That’s OK. I have enormous respect for him.  I see myself as an umpire, trying to call balls and strikes. Not everyone is going to like that, especially those who get called out on strikes. Some will say that the facts are more nuanced, that the umpire is making everything too black and white, or that “it’s not that simple.” It never is.       

    --Tom Ricks doesn’t hate the U.S. Army. Gian mentioned my book ‘Making the Corps,’ about the Marines, but didn’t mention the one that followed,  ‘A Soldier’s Duty,’ which I wrote as a heartfelt appreciation of the Army—one reason I dedicated the book to, among others, “Sam and Courtney.” (If you haven’t read ‘Once an Eagle,’ stop reading this and go to Amazon.com and buy it right now.)     

    --“Fight Club.” I didn’t write the headline. Nor have I seen the movie. 

    --I tend not to respond to ad hominen attacks, because I figure if they have to sidestep the argument to go after me, that means I’ve won my point. But fwiw, I am post-conscription. I had to register for the draft, but I think by the time I started college in Sept. 1973, the draft was nearly over. To my knowledge, no American soldiers died in Vietnam while I was at Yale (Sept. 1975-May 1977). 

    --‘Swiddened’—great word. And a point I will take to heart. 

    --“Hyperbolic hagiography”? Gentleman, at this point I would like to ask for a bit of evidence. An example from what I have written, either in this book review or in ‘Fiasco,’ would be helpful. Ditto on “faux military, a Potemkin village of huggy, happy, effeminate civil affairs clerks.” That’s a cartoon. As for Marine generals, I refer you to General Mattis. 

    Bottom line, I think it is a fair book review. I don’t consider it over the top. If you think I got Lt. Col. Sassaman wrong, I encourage you to read his testimony at the court martial of one of his platoon leaders. 

             --Tom Ricks
  • A couple of stories from the weekend are worth flagging for further reading if you missed them, both of which revolve around Pakistan. The Times (of London not that Johnny-come-lately one in New York) has a report by Christina Lamb that alleges the British government has been covering up the fact that the SAS killed a Pakistani Army officer who was leading Taliban fighters in Helmand province last year.

    British officials covered up evidence that a Taliban commander killed by special forces in Helmand last year was in fact a Pakistani military officer, according to highly placed Afghan officials.

    The commander, targeted in a compound in the Sangin valley, was one of six killed in the past year by SAS and SBS forces. When the British soldiers entered the compound they discovered a Pakistani military ID on the body.

    It was the first physical evidence of covert Pakistani military operations against British forces in Afghanistan even though Islamabad insists it is a close ally in the war against terror.

    Britain’s refusal to make the incident public led to a row with the Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who has long accused London of viewing Afghanistan through the eyes of Pakistani military intelligence, which is widely believed to have been helping the Taliban.


    This is hardly the first allegation of involvement by Pakistani forces with Taliban fighters in Afghanistan. In the early days of OEF there was the infamous Airlift of Evil which allowed hundreds of ISI and Frontier Corps “advisors” to escape from Kunduz ahead of the Northern Alliance. More recently, Seth Jones from Rand has repeatedly asserted that the ISI and FC are continuing to provide the Afghan Taliban with money and weapons.

    The strange detail from this story is the fact that the SAS recovered a Pakistani Army ID. Troy is certainly not a special operator, but he presumes that if he were covertly advising insurgents in a third country, he wouldn’t bring his military identification with him. This suggests that the officer in question may have been freelancing, rather than on official duty, but we will have to wait for more details to emerge.

    If this were true, it could explain the Brits decision calculus in covering up the story. Unnamed Afghan sources cited in Lamb’s article claim that it was done to avoid inflaming the Pakistani population in the UK, but Troy doesn’t find that convincing. However, publicizing evidence of a rogue army officer(s), vice evidence of an official covert operation, could cause a lot of public embarrassment that wouldn’t necessarily lead to any productive outcome. It would also explain why this story was leaked by Afghan sources who undoubtedly want an opportunity to "stick it" to Pakistan.

    Clearly this is a sensitive point for Islamabad. As Lamb reports,

    The Afghan claims of Pakistani involvement in Helmand were backed by a senior United Nations official who said he had been told by his superiors to keep quiet after Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN apparently threatened to stop contributing forces to peacekeeping missions. Pakistan is the UN’s biggest supplier of peacekeeping troops.

    Turning to macro-political issues, Šumit Ganguly, the sharpest South Asia scholar in the U.S., has a commentary in the Washington Post on the structural basis for Pakistan’s endemic political chaos. It is a cogent analysis of an important topic, but not one that makes uplifting reading—particularly when the title of your article is “Danger Ahead for the Most Dangerous Place in the World.”

    Here's an alarming thought: Pakistan is in even scarier shape than most of the so-called experts are willing to admit.

    This nuclear-armed state of 168 million is no stranger to political upheaval, of course. But this time, things are different. Today's ongoing crisis -- marked by a rash of suicide bombings, the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto last December, inflation as high as 25 percent and a resurgent Taliban movement -- could spell doom for the Pakistani state itself.


    It gets worse from there, particularly because Troy doubts the likelihood that his policy prescription would or could be implemented.
  • Check out the review of In a Time of War by Abu Muqawama's alter-ego in Sunday's Washington Post.  (Including a shout-out to the world's greatest blog in the footer!)
    Murphy's prose does not dazzle, nor should it. Drawing attention to one's own writing with a story this powerful would be the worst kind of vanity. There is also no need to worry that Murphy's book will contribute to the public romanticism of our military that has grown in inverse proportion to the percentage of Americans actually serving in uniform. War, as it is experienced by the officers Murphy profiles, is horrific. Soldiers kill and see friends killed and maimed for 12 months and then return to the United States to try to start families before they are called back to combat a year later.

    A former Army officer (though not a West Point graduate), Murphy can seem a little cynical about the Bush administration, which should not surprise us; he began his book while serving as Bob Woodward's research assistant on State of Denial. Still, Murphy gamely highlights both President Bush's charming playfulness (he agreed to chest-butt a cadet at graduation, telling him to "bring it") as well as his inability to communicate meaningfully with the horribly wounded soldiers who return from Iraq to Walter Reed. ("Well, it looks like you lost a leg," the president told one soldier. "But you've still got another one. Hopefully you'll keep that one and things will get better.")

    Presidents and their advisers don't personally fight wars, though, and this book isn't about them. At the ground level, wars are fought by painfully young men and women -- and by the junior officers who lead them. In a Time of War movingly profiles some of those officers, and as combat veterans grow more rare in American society, books like Murphy's become more important. 
  • Charlie has a not so secret love of spy novels (cf, The Quiet American).   She's on record saying that Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy is one of most influential books in her stil short career (Hannah Arendt's,  On Revolution was her second pick).   A Coffin For Demetrios, Leaves of Autumn, usw.  But as any real spy afficionado knows, most all the good stuff ended with the Cold War; though Alan Furst's Nazi-era novels are a noted exception.  Fittingly, he writes this weekend's review of John le Carre's newest tome, which has Charlie v. excited.
    Cold war spy fiction had had its day, and it had been, for a generation of readers on airplanes and beaches, a very good day indeed. Len Deighton, Derek Marlowe, Charles McCarry and, at the top of the heap, the magnificent John le Carré, most notably in his Karla trilogy: “Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy,” “The Honourable Schoolboy” and “Smiley’s People.” The great character of the trilogy was the meek, brilliant George Smiley, a character le Carré had used before but here was his full flowering. And if his reality on the page was compelling, his rendering in human form — by Alec Guinness in the BBC’s two miniseries, adapted from “Tinker, Taylor” and “Smiley’s People” — made him even more real. You reread the books, and visualized Sir Alec. Perfect.

    But then, something changed. And, coincidentally, a few weeks after the cold war sat up in its coffin and smiled, John le Carré publishes one of the best novels he’s ever written. Maybe the best, it’s possible. What the hell got into him? Well, not quite 9/11, more its aftermath.

    Bachmann is not the only spy in “A Most Wanted Man”; he swims in a sea of them — German espiocrats and national police; some adroitly verbal Brits, savage but polite; and, at the margin, some Americans, savage and not polite. And, taken together, quite a crew. Do they respect law and lawyers? No, they eat law and lawyers, just for an appetizer. Compared with them, the fine old le Carré characters — Connie Sachs with her total recall for Soviet thugs, Toby Esterhase and his street-surveillance Lamplighters — seem wistful, melancholy figures from a different time. In history, in fiction. And they are. Because in “A Most Wanted Man,” the sheer desperation of those whose job it is to prevent another 9/11, another Madrid commuter train, another London Tube attack, is written as a slow-burning fire in every line, and that’s what makes it nearly impossible to mark the page and go to sleep.
    Hot damn.  Off to Kramerbooks....Leave your favorite spy novel in the comments.
  • First, thanks to Troy for his continuing coverage of all things South-ish Asia. And don't miss the Stateside coverage of the recently leaked NIE draft. One bit from the NYT story that caught Charlie's eye:
    The classified report finds that the breakdown in central authority in
    Afghanistan has been accelerated by rampant corruption within the government of
    President Hamid Karzai and by an increase in violence by militants who have launched increasingly sophisticated attacks from havens in Pakistan....Beyond the
    cross-border attacks launched by militants in neighboring Pakistan, the
    intelligence report asserts that many of Afghanistan’s most vexing problems
    are of the country’s own making, the officials said
    .

    That struck this blogger as plausible...but she's no expert. What say you?

    Second, Charlie got a request via email for some Saudi resources this week. Seems prudent to post the replies for the collective readership to review:

    First from AM:
    I am no expert on Saudi Arabia. But Thomas Hegghammer is the brightest young
    scholar on jihadi movements in Saudi Arabia. Many of his articles can be learned
    monograph on Saudi succession
    .

    And from Carlos:
    The chapter in Judith Miller's God has Ninety-Nine Names is good, and with
    the rest of the book there might be a shot at other context.

    I happen to think the opening stuff in The Age of Sacred Terror is pretty
    good, though the context is a little wider than Saudi Arabia.

    And there is Sandra Mackey, The Saudis: Inside the Desert Kingdom. Dated, but still good basics.

    Finally Charlie apologizes for being largely MIA over the last couple weeks. She's been crushed with work and obsessed with the financial crisis / election (actually much more the former than the latter). The long term impact of the budget crunch, liquidity crisis, and likely erosion of American economic power has serious implications for our foreign and defense policies. She just hasn't figured them all out quite yet.

    But if you think the American public is fickle and short-sighted in the best of times, you ain't seen nothing yet. It's going to be increasingly hard to justifying long-term occupations overseas...not to mention Army and Marine plus-ups (that budget money is going to go to big ticket hardware items like ships and planes, the kinds of things that create jobs in congressional districts).

    Update:  A long-time reader, first-time caller writes in with his take on the relationship between industrial democracies and counter-insurgency campaings (warning:  if the phrase "median voter" gives you a migraine, you'll want to avert your eyes).  Charlie has her own thoughts on regime type and counter-insurgencies...namely that democracies rarely get to fight them at home (yeah it happens, but it's rare, and they're usually pretty small).  The problem is fighting overseas, which pretty much everyone sucks at.  Why?  Bad intel and seriously resolved insurgents.
  • A minor kerfuffle of sorts occurred earlier this week when the Financial Times reported that the Karzai government was engaged in Saudi-brokered peace negotiations with representatives of the Taliban (ed: Which Taliban? More on that later). CNN took the story one further by alleging that “Taliban leaders are holding Saudi-brokered talks with the Afghan government to end the country’s bloody conflict — and are severing their ties with al Qaeda.”

    The Afghan government has denied that such negotiations have taken place, but expressed hope for peace talks with the insurgents. Contradicting suggestions made earlier in the year that the Taliban could co-operate with the Afghan government, spokesman Mullah Brother vehemently rejected the idea of negotiations with Kabul and there is no supporting evidence that Mullah Omar has broken with Al-Qaeda. (Given that Saudi money and madrasahs were a major source of the early Talib, their position as an honest broker leaves much to be desired.)

    Interestingly, these stories emerged around the same time that the Senior British commander in Afghanistan, UN envoy Kai Eide and the U.S. Secretary of Defense have been arguing that the only resolution in Afghanistan will come with a settlement that includes the Taliban.

    Troy assumes that the Afghan government has some form of on-going negotiations with various insurgent groups. Insurgencies are hardly monolithic, both among the support base and active guerrillas, one can typically find a variety of motivating issues and relative levels of commitment. Moreover, like any organization, insurgent movements can be rife with internal tensions and competing sources of power. The historical record suggests that through accommodation, many insurgents can be politically swayed or economically induced to rally to the government’s side. Although the goals of insurgent leaders cannot always be accommodated, the concrete grievances that motivate both the rank-and-file insurgents and their supporters frequently can be met.

    Although subsequent reporting by the BBC suggests there may be less to the negotiation story that first reported, the event does raise some questions:

    Who among the insurgents can be negotiated with? Haqqani? The Quetta Shura? Militants like Hekmatyar? Is it reasonable to think that any of them could be co-opted by/brought into the Afghan government?

    If such an agreement could be reached, who would guarantee it? Troy seriously doubts that the Saudis would be in a position to oversee the Afghan government and prevent Taliban “backsliding”

    How secure are the Afghan Taliban at present? An unnamed senior diplomat in Kabul told the Financial Times that the Taliban “are desperate to [negotiate]…they have had seven years of suffering severe losses on the battlefield and they know that it is not sustainable.” Yet, Carlton-Smith warns ““We’re not going to win this war. It’s about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that’s not a strategic threat…” The Taliban have been losing some of their leaders to American military action, but at the same time, Karzi’s position is not appreciably better than it was in 2002. Which side would be negotiating from the position of strength?

    Secretary Gates’ comments aside, most stories reporting this news emphasize that the U.S. opposes negotiations. What SHOULD the American position on negotiation with the Taliban be? Should they offer the Talibs the same deal they did pre-OEF? (i.e. handover UBL and the senior AQ leaders and we’ll talk) As Troy recalls, Afghanistan was about eliminating ungoverned space/terrorist sanctuary. I will defer to AM on the finer points of this, but the U.S. and Europe has found a way to live with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah in control of quasi-states. Hardly a desirable outcome in Afghanistan, but how does it compare to the British Ambassador’s suggestion that the best possible outcome is to install an “acceptable dictator in Kabul”?

    Discuss...

  • Troy is traveling this week, but he just wanted to quickly point out a couple of developments in Pakistan that are of interest to the AM community

    Pakistan Army chief, Gen. Kayani, has appointed Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha as director general of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Prior to his appointment, Pasha was Director-General of Military Operations, overseeing the Army’s operations in the NWFP and FATA. Pasha is succeeding Lt. Gen. Nadeem Taj, a relative of Musharraf’s, who was viewed by many to be a key figure in the “double game” Pakistan has been playing with the U.S. on the one hand and the militants in Tribal areas on the other. So, what does this change mean for the U.S. and operations in Afghanistan? Reports indicate that the U.S. has been pushing for Taj’s replacement—believing that intelligence shared with the ISI by Americans was passed to the Taliban. What will Pasha’s appointment mean for the Pakistan Army’s approach to militancy and terrorism? What will it mean for US-Pakistani relations? After a week-long hiatus, the U.S. attacked another target in Pakistan's tribal areas, while Pakistani security forces are still under orders to open fire if American forces attempt to cross the Pakistan/Afghan border. Finally, it is worth noting that in making this appointment, along with that of the new corps commanders in Rawalpindi, Bahawalpur and Karachi, General Kayani (who led the ISI from 2004-2007) now has a number of individuals in key offices who owe their position to him and not to Musharraf.

    In crazy Islamicist news, President Zardari has been the target of a fatwa issued by Maulana Abdul Ghafar of Islamabad's Lal Masjid. What was it that provoked Ghafar’s ire? Was it Zardari’s shady business practices, allegations of corruption or money laundering? No…it was Sarah Palin. Troy could not make this stuff up. Apparently Zardari's indecent gestures (shaking hands), filthy remarks (saying he’d like to hug her) and repeated praise of a non-Muslim lady wearing a short skirt is not only “un-Islamic but also unbecoming of a head of state of a Muslim country.” After getting that off his chest, Ghafar added a demand that the military operations in the tribal areas be ceased since they are “creating hatred amongst the general public against the Pakistan army.” Unsurprisingly, Ghafar is a close relative of the fanatic Red Mosque cleric Maujlana Abdul Rashid Ghazi, who was killed by security forces during Operation Silence in July 2007.

    Finally, it appears that reports filed yesterday suggesting that Baitullah Mehsud, the head of the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan had died were premature. The eventual death of Mehsud, who suffers from diabetes, could open fissures in the TeT as rival Taliban commanders vie to succeed him.

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